Changes in size and age at maturity of the northern stock of Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) after a period of overfishing

The modern fishery for Tilefish (Lopholatilus chamaeleonticeps) developed during the 1970s, offshore of southern New England, in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The population quickly became over exploited, with documented declines in catch rates and changes in demographic traits. In an earlier study, median size at maturity (L50) of males declined from 62.6 to 38.6 cm fork length (FL) and median age at maturity (A50) of males declined from 7.1 to 4.6 years between 1978 and 1982. As part of a cooperative research effort to improve the data-limited Tilefish assessment, we updated maturity parameter estimates through the use of an otolith aging method and macroscopic and microscopic evaluations of gonads. The vital rates for this species have continued to change, particularly for males. By 2008, male L50 and A50 had largely rebounded, to 54.1 cm FL and 5.9 years. Changes in female reproductive schedules were less variable among years, but the smallest L50 and youngest A50 were recorded in 2008. Tilefish are dimorphic, where the largest fish are male, and male spawning success is postulated to be socially mediated. These traits may explain the initial rapid decline and the subsequent rebound in male L50 and A50 and less dramatic effects on females. Other factors that likely contribute to the dynamics of maturity parameter estimates are the relatively short period of overfishing and the amount of time since efforts to rebuild this fishery began, as measured in numbers of generations. This study also confirms the gonochoristic sexual pattern of the northern stock, and it reveals evidence of age truncation and relatively high proportions of immature Tilefish in the recent catch.

Maternal effects on fecundity and egg quality of the Patagonian stock of Argentine Hake (Merluccius hubbsi)

The influences of age, size, and condition of spawning females on fecundity and oocyte quality were analyzed for the Patagonian stock of Argentine Hake (Merluccius hubbsi). Samples of mature females were collected in the spawning area as part of 2 research surveys conducted in January 2010 and 2011, during the peak of the reproductive season. Batch fecundity (BF) ranged between 40,500 (29 cm total length [TL]) and 2,550,000 (95 cm TL) hydrated oocytes, and was positively correlated with TL, gutted weight, age, hepatosomatic index (HSI), and the relative condition factor (Kn). Relative fecundity ranged between 85 and 1040 hydrated oocytes g–1 and showed significant positive relationships with gutted weight, HSI, and Kn; however, coefficients of determination were low for all regressions. Dry weights of samples of 100 hydrated oocytes ranged between 1.8 and 3.95 mg and were positively correlated with all variables analyzed, including batch and relative fecundity. Multiple regression models created with data of the morphophysiological characteristics of females supported maternal influences on fecundity and egg weights. Within the studied size range (29–95 cm TL), larger individuals had better somatic and egg condition, mainly revealed by higher HSI and hydrated oocytes with larger oil droplets (275.71μm [standard error 1.49]). These results were associated with the higher feeding activity of larger females during the spawning season in comparison with the feeding activity of young individuals (<5 years old); the better nutritional state of larger females, assumed to result from more feeding, was conducive to greater production of high-quality eggs.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Marine Fisheries Stock Assessment Improvement Plan: report of the National Marine Fisheries Service National Task Force for Improving Fish Stock Assessments

This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process, and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the "ideal" situation to which fisheries stock assessments and management should aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes. The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands, which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining "adequate" is difficult, especially when scientists have not even identified all marine species, and information on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define "adequate," especially when "ecosystem-based management" is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than trying to estimate the resources required to develop a knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions, abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus, the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans, except as otherwise noted.

The effects of size-selective fisheries on the stock dynamics of and sperm limitation in sex-changing fish

Fisheries models have traditionally focused on patterns of growth, fecundity, and survival of fish. However, reproductive rates are the outcome of a variety of interconnected factors such as life-history strategies, mating patterns, population sex ratio, social interactions, and individual fecundity and fertility. Behaviorally appropriate models are necessary to understand stock dynamics and predict the success of management strategies. Protogynous sex-changing fish present a challenge for management because size-selective fisheries can drastically reduce reproductive rates. We present a general framework using an individual-based simulation model to determine the effect of life-history pattern, sperm production, mating system, and management strategy on stock dynamics. We apply this general approach to the specific question of how size-selective fisheries that remove mainly males will impact the stock dynamics of a protogynous population with fixed sex change compared to an otherwise identical dioecious population. In this dioecious population, we kept all aspects of the stock constant except for the pattern of sex determination (i.e. whether the species changes sex or is dioecious). Protogynous stocks with fixed sex change are predicted to be very sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern. If all male size classes are fished, protogynous populations are predicted to crash even at relatively low fishing mortality. When some male size classes escape fishing, we predict that the mean population size of sex-changing stocks will decrease proportionally less than the mean population size of dioecious species experiencing the same fishing mortality. For protogynous species, spawning-per-recruit measures that ignore fertilization rates are not good indicators of the impact of fishing on the population. Decreased mating aggregation size is predicted to lead to an increased effect of sperm limitation at constant fishing mortality and effort. Marine protected areas have the potential to mitigate some effects of fishing on sperm limitation in sex-changing populations.

Recruitment and spawning-stock biomass distribution of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) in Chesapeake Bay

Recruitment of bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) in Chesapeake is related to variability in hydrological conditions and to abundance and spatial distribution of spawning stock biomass (SSB). Midwater-trawl surveys conducted for six years, over the entire 320-km length of the bay, provided information on anchovy SSB, annual spatial patterns of recruitment, and their relationships to variability in the estuarine environment. SSB of anchovy varied sixfold in 1995–2000; it alone explained little variability in young-of-the-year (YOY) recruitment level in October, which varied ninefold. Recruitments were low in 1995 and 1996 (47 and 31 Z 109) but higher in 1997–2000 (100 to 265 Z 109). During the recruitment process the YOY population migrated upbay before a subsequent fall-winter downbay migration. The extent of the downbay migration by maturing recruits was greatest in years of high freshwater input to the bay. Mean dissolved oxygen (DO) was more important than freshwater input in controlling distribution of SSB and shifts in SSB location between April– May (prespawning) and June–August (spawning) periods. Recruitments of bay anchovy were higher when mean DO was lowest in the downbay region during the spawning season. It is hypothesized that anchovy recruitment level is inversely related to mean DO concentration because low DO is associated with high plankton productivity in Chesapeake Bay. Additionally, low DO conditions may confine most bay anchovy spawners to the downbay region, where production of larvae and juveniles is enhanced. A modified Ricker stock-recruitment model indicated density-compensatory recruitment with respect to SSB and demonstrated the importance of spring-summer DO levels and spatial distribution of SSB as controllers of bay anchovy recruitment.

Coupling ecology and economy: modeling optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) stock enhancement

Increasing interest in the use of stock enhancement as a management tool necessitates a better understanding of the relative costs and benefits of alternative release strategies. We present a relatively simple model coupling ecology and economic costs to make inferences about optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), a subject of stock enhancement interest in North Carolina. The model, parameterized from mark-recapture experiments, predicts optimal release scenarios from both survival and economic standpoints for varyious dates-of-release, sizes-at-release, and numbers of fish released. Although most stock enhancement efforts involve the release of relatively small fish, the model suggests that optimal results (maximum survival and minimum costs) will be obtained when relatively large fish (75–80 mm total length) are released early in the nursery season (April). We investigated the sensitivity of model predictions to violations of the assumption of density-independent mortality by including density-mortality relationships based on weak and strong type-2 and type-3 predator functional responses (resulting in depensatory mortality at elevated densities). Depending on postrelease density, density-mortality relationships included in the model considerably affect predicted postrelease survival and economic costs associated with enhancement efforts, but do not alter the release scenario (i.e. combination of release variables) that produces optimal results. Predicted (from model output) declines in flounder over time most closely match declines observed in replicate field sites when mortality in the model is density-independent or governed by a weak type-3 functional response. The model provides an example of a relatively easy-to-develop predictive tool with which to make inferences about the ecological and economic potential of stock enhancement of summer flounder and provides a template for model creation for additional species that are subjects of stock enhancement interest, but for which limited empirical data exist.

Sizes of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) consumed by the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska from 1999 to 2000

Prey-size selectivity by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) is relevant for understanding the foraging behavior of this declining predator, but studies have been problematic because of the absence and erosion of otoliths usually used to estimate fish length. Therefore, we developed regression formulae to estimate fish length from seven diagnostic cranial structures of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius). For both species, all structure measurements were related with fork length of prey (r2 range: 0.78−0.99). Fork length (FL) of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions was estimated by applying these regression models to cranial structures recovered from scats (feces) collected between 1998 and 2000 across the range of the Alaskan western stock of Steller sea lions. Experimentally derived digestion correction factors were applied to take into account loss of size due to digestion. Fork lengths of walleye pollock consumed by Steller sea lions ranged from 3.7 to 70.8 cm (mean=39.3 cm, SD=14.3 cm, n=666) and Atka mackerel ranged from 15.3 to 49.6 cm (mean=32.3 cm, SD=5.9 cm, n=1685). Although sample sizes were limited, a greater proportion of juvenile (≤20 cm) walleye pollock were found in samples collected during the summer (June−September) on haul-out sites (64% juveniles, n=11 scats) than on summer rookeries (9% juveniles, n=132 scats) or winter (February−March) haul-out sites (3% juveniles, n=69 scats). Annual changes in the size of Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions corresponded to changes in the length distribution of Atka mackerel resulting from exceptionally strong year classes. Considerable overlap (>51%) in the size of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel taken by Steller sea lions and the sizes of these species caught by the commercial trawl fishery were demonstrated.

Sizes of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) consumed by the eastern stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska from 1994 to 1999

Lengths of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) consumed by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) were estimated by using allometric regressions applied to seven diagnostic cranial structures recovered from 531 scats collected in Southeast Alaska between 1994 and 1999. Only elements in good and fair condition were selected. Selected structural measurements were corrected for loss of size due to erosion by using experimentally derived condition-specific digestion correction factors. Correcting for digestion increased the estimated length of fish consumed by 23%, and the average mass of fish consumed by 88%. Mean corrected fork length (FL) of pollock consumed was 42.4 ±11.6 cm (range=10.0−78.1 cm, n=909). Adult pollock (FL>45.0 cm) occurred more frequently in scats collected from rookeries along the open ocean coastline of Southeast Alaska during June and July (74% adults, mean FL=48.4 cm) than they did in scats from haul-outs located in inside waters between October and May (51% adults, mean FL=38.4 cm). Overall, the contribution of juvenile pollock (≤20 cm) to the sea lion diet was insignificant; whereas adults contributed 44% to the diet by number and 74% by mass. On average, larger pollock were eaten in summer at rookeries throughout Southeast Alaska than at rookeries in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Overall it appears that Steller sea lions are capable of consuming a wide size range of pollock, and the bulk of fish fall between 20 and 60 cm. The use of cranial hard parts other than otoliths and the application of digestion correction factors are fundamental to correctly estimating the sizes of prey consumed by sea lions and determining the extent that these sizes overlap with the sizes of pollock caught by commercial fisheries.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.