Combining Generic Programming and Service-Oriented Architectures for the Effective and Timely Development of Complex e-Learning Systems

Peer-reviewed

Analyzing Carbon Trade Permits in Optimization Framework

The threats caused by global warming motivate different stake holders to deal with and control them. This Master's thesis focuses on analyzing carbon trade permits in optimization framework. The studied model determines optimal emission and uncertainty levels which minimize the total cost. Research questions are formulated and answered by using different optimization tools. The model is developed and calibrated by using available consistent data in the area of carbon emission technology and control. Data and some basic modeling assumptions were extracted from reports and existing literatures. The data collected from the countries in the Kyoto treaty are used to estimate the cost functions. Theory and methods of constrained optimization are briefly presented. A two-level optimization problem (individual and between the parties) is analyzed by using several optimization methods. The combined cost optimization between the parties leads into multivariate model and calls for advanced techniques. Lagrangian, Sequential Quadratic Programming and Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm are referred to. The role of inherent measurement uncertainty in the monitoring of emissions is discussed. We briefly investigate an approach where emission uncertainty would be described in stochastic framework. MATLAB software has been used to provide visualizations including the relationship between decision variables and objective function values. Interpretations in the context of carbon trading were briefly presented. Suggestions for future work are given in stochastic modeling, emission trading and coupled analysis of energy prices and carbon permits.

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions

The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.

Asymptotic analysis of stock price densities and implied volatilities in mixed stochastic models

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin con- volution of functions de ned on (0;1), and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-di usion models and stochastic volatility models with jumps. We apply our general results to the Heston model with double exponential jumps, and make a detailed analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the stock price density, the call option pricing function, and the implied volatility in this model. We also obtain similar results for the Heston model with jumps distributed according to the NIG law.

Programming and analysing measurement experiments using the PicoCricket system

The aim of this project is to get used to another kind of programming. Since now, I used very complex programming languages to develop applications or even to program microcontrollers, but PicoCricket system is the evidence that we don’t need so complex development tools to get functional devices. PicoCricket system is the clear example of simple programming to make devices work the way we programmed it. There’s an easy but effective way to programs mall devices just saying what we want them to do. We cannot do complex algorithms and mathematical operations but we can program them in a short time. Nowadays, the easier and faster we produce, the more we earn. So the tendency is to develop fast, cheap and easy, and PicoCricket system can do it.

PRACTICAL STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR CHEMICAL KINETICS

The Practical Stochastic Model is a simple and robust method to describe coupled chemical reactions. The connection between this stochastic method and a deterministic method was initially established to understand how the parameters and variables that describe the concentration in both methods were related. It was necessary to define two main concepts to make this connection: the filling of compartments or dilutions and the rate of reaction enhancement. The parameters, variables, and the time of the stochastic methods were scaled with the size of the compartment and were compared with a deterministic method. The deterministic approach was employed as an initial reference to achieve a consistent stochastic result. Finally, an independent robust stochastic method was obtained. This method could be compared with the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm developed by Gillespie, 1977. The Practical Stochastic Model produced absolute values that were essential to describe non-linear chemical reactions with a simple structure, and allowed for a correct description of the chemical kinetics.

Promoting Programming Learning. Engagement, Automatic Assessment with Immediate Feedback in Visualizations

The skill of programming is a key asset for every computer science student. Many studies have shown that this is a hard skill to learn and the outcomes of programming courses have often been substandard. Thus, a range of methods and tools have been developed to assist students’ learning processes. One of the biggest fields in computer science education is the use of visualizations as a learning aid and many visualization based tools have been developed to aid the learning process during last few decades. Studies conducted in this thesis focus on two different visualizationbased tools TRAKLA2 and ViLLE. This thesis includes results from multiple empirical studies about what kind of effects the introduction and usage of these tools have on students’ opinions and performance, and what kind of implications there are from a teacher’s point of view. The results from studies in this thesis show that students preferred to do web-based exercises, and felt that those exercises contributed to their learning. The usage of the tool motivated students to work harder during their course, which was shown in overall course performance and drop-out statistics. We have also shown that visualization-based tools can be used to enhance the learning process, and one of the key factors is the higher and active level of engagement (see. Engagement Taxonomy by Naps et al., 2002). The automatic grading accompanied with immediate feedback helps students to overcome obstacles during the learning process, and to grasp the key element in the learning task. These kinds of tools can help us to cope with the fact that many programming courses are overcrowded with limited teaching resources. These tools allows us to tackle this problem by utilizing automatic assessment in exercises that are most suitable to be done in the web (like tracing and simulation) since its supports students’ independent learning regardless of time and place. In summary, we can use our course’s resources more efficiently to increase the quality of the learning experience of the students and the teaching experience of the teacher, and even increase performance of the students. There are also methodological results from this thesis which contribute to developing insight into the conduct of empirical evaluations of new tools or techniques. When we evaluate a new tool, especially one accompanied with visualization, we need to give a proper introduction to it and to the graphical notation used by tool. The standard procedure should also include capturing the screen with audio to confirm that the participants of the experiment are doing what they are supposed to do. By taken such measures in the study of the learning impact of visualization support for learning, we can avoid drawing false conclusion from our experiments. As computer science educators, we face two important challenges. Firstly, we need to start to deliver the message in our own institution and all over the world about the new – scientifically proven – innovations in teaching like TRAKLA2 and ViLLE. Secondly, we have the relevant experience of conducting teaching related experiment, and thus we can support our colleagues to learn essential know-how of the research based improvement of their teaching. This change can transform academic teaching into publications and by utilizing this approach we can significantly increase the adoption of the new tools and techniques, and overall increase the knowledge of best-practices. In future, we need to combine our forces and tackle these universal and common problems together by creating multi-national and multiinstitutional research projects. We need to create a community and a platform in which we can share these best practices and at the same time conduct multi-national research projects easily.

Early nutritional determinants in cardio-metabolic programming – A prospective randomized controlled dietary intervention study

Western societies have been faced with the fact that overweight, impaired glucose regulation and elevated blood pressure are already prevalent in pediatric populations. This will inevitably mean an increase in later manifestations of cardio-metabolic diseases. The dilemma has been suggested to stem from fetal life and it is surmised that the early nutritional environment plays an important role in the process called programming. The aim of the present study was to characterize early nutritional determinants associating with cardio-metabolic risk factors in fetuses, infants and children. Further, the study was designated to establish whether dietary counseling initiated in early pregnancy can modify this cascade. Healthy mother-child pairs (n=256) participating in a dietary intervention study were followed from early pregnancy to childhood. The intervention included detailed dietary counseling by a nutritionist targeting saturated fat intake in excess of recommendations and fiber consumption below recommendations. Cardio-metabolic programming was studied by characterizing the offspring’s cardio-metabolic risk factors such as over-activation of the autonomic nervous system, elevated blood pressure and adverse metabolic status (e.g. serum high split proinsulin concentration). Fetal cardiac sympathovagal activation was measured during labor. Postnatally, children’s blood pressure was measured at six-month and four-year follow-up visits. Further, infants’ metabolic status was assessed by means of growth and serum biomarkers (32-33 split proinsulin, leptin and adiponectin) at the age of six months. This study proved that fetal cardiac sympathovagal activity was positively associated with maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index indicating adverse cardio-metabolic programming in the offspring. Further, a reduced risk of high split proinsulin in infancy and lower blood pressure in childhood were found in those offspring whose mothers’ weight gain and amount and type of fats in the diet during pregnancy were as recommended. Of note, maternal dietary counseling from early pregnancy onwards could ameliorate the offspring’s metabolic status by reducing the risk of high split proinsulin concentration, although it had no effect on the other cardio-metabolic markers in the offspring. At postnatal period breastfeeding proved to entail benefits in cardio-metabolic programming. Finally, the recommended dietary protein and total fat content in the child’s diet were important nutritional determinants reducing blood pressure at the age of four years. The intrauterine and immediate postnatal period comprise a window of opportunity for interventions aiming to reduce the risk of cardio-metabolic disorders and brings the prospect of achieving health benefits over one generation.

Tool-supported invariant-based programming

The development of correct programs is a core problem in computer science. Although formal verification methods for establishing correctness with mathematical rigor are available, programmers often find these difficult to put into practice. One hurdle is deriving the loop invariants and proving that the code maintains them. So called correct-by-construction methods aim to alleviate this issue by integrating verification into the programming workflow. Invariant-based programming is a practical correct-by-construction method in which the programmer first establishes the invariant structure, and then incrementally extends the program in steps of adding code and proving after each addition that the code is consistent with the invariants. In this way, the program is kept internally consistent throughout its development, and the construction of the correctness arguments (proofs) becomes an integral part of the programming workflow. A characteristic of the approach is that programs are described as invariant diagrams, a graphical notation similar to the state charts familiar to programmers. Invariant-based programming is a new method that has not been evaluated in large scale studies yet. The most important prerequisite for feasibility on a larger scale is a high degree of automation. The goal of the Socos project has been to build tools to assist the construction and verification of programs using the method. This thesis describes the implementation and evaluation of a prototype tool in the context of the Socos project. The tool supports the drawing of the diagrams, automatic derivation and discharging of verification conditions, and interactive proofs. It is used to develop programs that are correct by construction. The tool consists of a diagrammatic environment connected to a verification condition generator and an existing state-of-the-art theorem prover. Its core is a semantics for translating diagrams into verification conditions, which are sent to the underlying theorem prover. We describe a concrete method for 1) deriving sufficient conditions for total correctness of an invariant diagram; 2) sending the conditions to the theorem prover for simplification; and 3) reporting the results of the simplification to the programmer in a way that is consistent with the invariantbased programming workflow and that allows errors in the program specification to be efficiently detected. The tool uses an efficient automatic proof strategy to prove as many conditions as possible automatically and lets the remaining conditions be proved interactively. The tool is based on the verification system PVS and i uses the SMT (Satisfiability Modulo Theories) solver Yices as a catch-all decision procedure. Conditions that were not discharged automatically may be proved interactively using the PVS proof assistant. The programming workflow is very similar to the process by which a mathematical theory is developed inside a computer supported theorem prover environment such as PVS. The programmer reduces a large verification problem with the aid of the tool into a set of smaller problems (lemmas), and he can substantially improve the degree of proof automation by developing specialized background theories and proof strategies to support the specification and verification of a specific class of programs. We demonstrate this workflow by describing in detail the construction of a verified sorting algorithm. Tool-supported verification often has little to no presence in computer science (CS) curricula. Furthermore, program verification is frequently introduced as an advanced and purely theoretical topic that is not connected to the workflow taught in the early and practically oriented programming courses. Our hypothesis is that verification could be introduced early in the CS education, and that verification tools could be used in the classroom to support the teaching of formal methods. A prototype of Socos has been used in a course at Åbo Akademi University targeted at first and second year undergraduate students. We evaluate the use of Socos in the course as part of a case study carried out in 2007.

Teaching mathematics and programming : new approaches with empirical evaluation

Programming and mathematics are core areas of computer science (CS) and consequently also important parts of CS education. Introductory instruction in these two topics is, however, not without problems. Studies show that CS students find programming difficult to learn and that teaching mathematical topics to CS novices is challenging. One reason for the latter is the disconnection between mathematics and programming found in many CS curricula, which results in students not seeing the relevance of the subject for their studies. In addition, reports indicate that students' mathematical capability and maturity levels are dropping. The challenges faced when teaching mathematics and programming at CS departments can also be traced back to gaps in students' prior education. In Finland the high school curriculum does not include CS as a subject; instead, focus is on learning to use the computer and its applications as tools. Similarly, many of the mathematics courses emphasize application of formulas, while logic, formalisms and proofs, which are important in CS, are avoided. Consequently, high school graduates are not well prepared for studies in CS. Motivated by these challenges, the goal of the present work is to describe new approaches to teaching mathematics and programming aimed at addressing these issues: Structured derivations is a logic-based approach to teaching mathematics, where formalisms and justifications are made explicit. The aim is to help students become better at communicating their reasoning using mathematical language and logical notation at the same time as they become more confident with formalisms. The Python programming language was originally designed with education in mind, and has a simple syntax compared to many other popular languages. The aim of using it in instruction is to address algorithms and their implementation in a way that allows focus to be put on learning algorithmic thinking and programming instead of on learning a complex syntax. Invariant based programming is a diagrammatic approach to developing programs that are correct by construction. The approach is based on elementary propositional and predicate logic, and makes explicit the underlying mathematical foundations of programming. The aim is also to show how mathematics in general, and logic in particular, can be used to create better programs.

Enabling constructive alignment in programming instruction

In this thesis, simple methods have been sought to lower the teacher’s threshold to start to apply constructive alignment in instruction. From the phases of the instructional process, aspects that can be improved with little effort by the teacher have been identified. Teachers have been interviewed in order to find out what students actually learn in computer science courses. A quantitative analysis of the structured interviews showed that in addition to subject specific skills and knowledge, students learn many other skills that should be mentioned in the learning outcomes of the course. The students’ background, such as their prior knowledge, learning style and culture, affects how they learn in a course. A survey was conducted to map the learning styles of computer science students and to see if their cultural background affected their learning style. A statistical analysis of the data indicated that computer science students are different learners than engineering students in general and that there is a connection between the student’s culture and learning style. In this thesis, a simple self-assessment scale that is based on Bloom’s revised taxonomy has been developed. A statistical analysis of the test results indicates that in general the scale is quite reliable, but single students still slightly overestimate or under-estimate their knowledge levels. For students, being able to follow their own progress is motivating, and for a teacher, self-assessment results give information about how the class is proceeding and what the level of the students’ knowledge is.

MCMC Analysis for Optimization of Stochastic Models

In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

Computational modeling for irrigated agriculture planning. Part I: general description and linear programming

Linear programming models are effective tools to support initial or periodic planning of agricultural enterprises, requiring, however, technical coefficients that can be determined using computer simulation models. This paper, presented in two parts, deals with the development, application and tests of a methodology and of a computational modeling tool to support planning of irrigated agriculture activities. Part I aimed at the development and application, including sensitivity analysis, of a multiyear linear programming model to optimize the financial return and water use, at farm level for Jaíba irrigation scheme, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using data on crop irrigation requirement and yield, obtained from previous simulation with MCID model. The linear programming model outputted a crop pattern to which a maximum total net present value of R$ 372,723.00 for the four years period, was obtained. Constraints on monthly water availability, labor, land and production were critical in the optimal solution. In relation to the water use optimization, it was verified that an expressive reductions on the irrigation requirements may be achieved by small reductions on the maximum total net present value.

Computational methods for tactical simulations

Tämä taktiikan tutkimus keskittyy tietokoneavusteisen simuloinnin laskennallisiin menetelmiin, joita voidaan käyttää taktisen tason sotapeleissä. Työn tärkeimmät tuotokset ovat laskennalliset mallit todennäköisyyspohjaisen analyysin mahdollistaviin taktisen tason taistelusimulaattoreihin, joita voidaan käyttää vertailevaan analyysiin joukkue-prikaatitason tarkastelutilanteissa. Laskentamallit keskittyvät vaikuttamiseen. Mallit liittyvät vahingoittavan osuman todennäköisyyteen, jonka perusteella vaikutus joukossa on mallinnettu tilakoneina ja Markovin ketjuina. Edelleen näiden tulokset siirretään tapahtumapuuanalyysiin operaation onnistumisen todennäköisyyden osalta. Pienimmän laskentayksikön mallinnustaso on joukkue- tai ryhmätasolla, jotta laskenta-aika prikaatitason sotapelitarkasteluissa pysyisi riittävän lyhyenä samalla, kun tulokset ovat riittävän tarkkoja suomalaiseen maastoon. Joukkueiden mies- ja asejärjestelmävahvuudet ovat jakaumamuodossa, eivätkä yksittäisiä lukuja. Simuloinnin integroinnissa voidaan käyttää asejärjestelmäkohtaisia predictor corrector –parametreja, mikä mahdollistaa aika-askelta lyhytaikaisempien taistelukentän ilmiöiden mallintamisen. Asemallien pohjana ovat aiemmat tutkimukset ja kenttäkokeet, joista osa kuuluu tähän väitöstutkimukseen. Laskentamallien ohjelmoitavuus ja käytettävyys osana simulointityökalua on osoitettu tekijän johtaman tutkijaryhmän ohjelmoiman ”Sandis”- taistelusimulointiohjelmiston avulla, jota on kehitetty ja käytetty Puolustusvoimien Teknillisessä Tutkimuslaitoksessa. Sandikseen on ohjelmoitu karttakäyttöliittymä ja taistelun kulkua simuloivia laskennallisia malleja. Käyttäjä tai käyttäjäryhmä tekee taktiset päätökset ja syöttää nämä karttakäyttöliittymän avulla simulointiin, jonka tuloksena saadaan kunkin joukkuetason peliyksikön tappioiden jakauma, keskimääräisten tappioiden osalta kunkin asejärjestelmän aiheuttamat tappiot kuhunkin maaliin, ammuskulutus ja radioyhteydet ja niiden tila sekä haavoittuneiden evakuointi-tilanne joukkuetasolta evakuointisairaalaan asti. Tutkimuksen keskeisiä tuloksia (kontribuutio) ovat 1) uusi prikaatitason sotapelitilanteiden laskentamalli, jonka pienin yksikkö on joukkue tai ryhmä; 2) joukon murtumispisteen määritys tappioiden ja haavoittuneiden evakuointiin sitoutuvien taistelijoiden avulla; 3) todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin käyttömahdollisuus vertailevassa tutkimuksessa sekä 4) kokeellisesti testatut tulen vaikutusmallit ja 5) toimivat integrointiratkaisut. Työ rajataan maavoimien taistelun joukkuetason todennäköisyysjakaumat luovaan laskentamalliin, kenttälääkinnän malliin ja epäsuoran tulen malliin integrointimenetelmineen sekä niiden antamien tulosten sovellettavuuteen. Ilmasta ja mereltä maahan -asevaikutusta voidaan tarkastella, mutta ei ilma- ja meritaistelua. Menetelmiä soveltavan Sandis -ohjelmiston malleja, käyttötapaa ja ohjelmistotekniikkaa kehitetään edelleen. Merkittäviä jatkotutkimuskohteita mallinnukseen osalta ovat muun muassa kaupunkitaistelu, vaunujen kaksintaistelu ja maaston vaikutus tykistön tuleen sekä materiaalikulutuksen arviointi.

Stochastic variability of output levels in a pulp mill

Quite often, in the construction of a pulp mill involves establishing the size of tanks which will accommodate the material from the various processes in which case estimating the right tank size a priori would be vital. Hence, simulation of the whole production process would be worthwhile. Therefore, there is need to develop mathematical models that would mimic the behavior of the output from the various production units of the pulp mill to work as simulators. Markov chain models, Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, Mean reversion models with ensemble interaction together with Markov regime switching models are proposed for that purpose.