The game of contacts: Estimating the social visibility of groups

Estimating the sizes of hard-to-count populations is a challenging and important problem that occurs frequently in social science, public health, and public policy. This problem is particularly pressing in HIV/AIDS research because estimates of the sizes of the most at-risk populations-illicit drug users, men who have sex with men, and sex workers-are needed for designing, evaluating, and funding programs to curb the spread of the disease. A promising new approach in this area is the network scale-up method, which uses information about the personal networks of respondents to make population size estimates. However, if the target population has low social visibility, as is likely to be the case in HIV/AIDS research, scale-up estimates will be too low. In this paper we develop a game-like activity that we call the game of contacts in order to estimate the social visibility of groups, and report results from a study of heavy drug users in Curitiba, Brazil (n = 294). The game produced estimates of social visibility that were consistent with qualitative expectations but of surprising magnitude. Further, a number of checks suggest that the data are high-quality. While motivated by the specific problem of population size estimation, our method could be used by researchers more broadly and adds to long-standing efforts to combine the richness of social network analysis with the power and scale of sample surveys. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Epidemics in networks of spatially correlated three-dimensional root-branching structures

Using digitized images of the three-dimensional, branching structures for root systems of bean seedlings, together with analytical and numerical methods that map a common susceptible-infected- recovered (`SIR`) epidemiological model onto the bond percolation problem, we show how the spatially correlated branching structures of plant roots affect transmission efficiencies, and hence the invasion criterion, for a soil-borne pathogen as it spreads through ensembles of morphologically complex hosts. We conclude that the inherent heterogeneities in transmissibilities arising from correlations in the degrees of overlap between neighbouring plants render a population of root systems less susceptible to epidemic invasion than a corresponding homogeneous system. Several components of morphological complexity are analysed that contribute to disorder and heterogeneities in the transmissibility of infection. Anisotropy in root shape is shown to increase resilience to epidemic invasion, while increasing the degree of branching enhances the spread of epidemics in the population of roots. Some extension of the methods for other epidemiological systems are discussed.

Creditor's protection and bank loans: lack of competition hamprers bankruptcy reform's effects

This dissertation investigates how credit institutions’ market power limits the effects of creditor protection rules on the interest rate and the spread of bank loans. We use the Brazilian Bankruptcy Reform of June/2005 (BBR) as a legal event affecting the institutional environment of the Brazilian credit market. The law augments creditor protection and aims to improve the access of firms to the credit market and to reduce the cost of borrowing. Either access to credit or the credit cost are also determined by bank industry competition and the market power of suppliers of credit. We derive a simple economic model to study the effect of market power interacting with cost of lending. Using an accounting and operations dataset from July/2004 to December/2007 provided by the Brazilian Central Bank, we estimate that the lack of competition in the bank lending industry hinders the potential reducing effect of the BBR on the interest rate of corporate loans by approximately 30% and on the spread by approximately 23%. We also find no statistical evidence that the BBR affected the concentration level of the Brazilian credit market. We present a brief report on bankruptcy reforms around the world, the changes in the Brazilian legislation and on some recent related articles in our introductory chapter. The second chapter presents the economic model and the testable hypothesis on how the lack of competition in the lending market limits the effects of improved creditor protection. In this chapter, we introduce our empirical strategy using a differences-in-differences model and we estimate the limiting effect of market power on the BBR’s potential to reduce interest rates and on the spread of bank loans. We use the BBR as an exogenous event that affects collateralized corporate loans (treatment group) but that does not affect clean consumer loans (control group) to identify these effects, using different concentration measures. In Chapter 3, we propose a two-stage empirical strategy to handle the H–Statistics proposed by Panzar and Rosse as a measure of market competition. We estimate the limiting effects of the lack of competition in replacing the concentration statistics by the H–Statistics. Chapter 4 presents a structural break test of the concentration index and checks if the BBR affects the dynamic evolution of the concentration index.

Global stabilizing feedback law for a problem of biological control of mosquito-borne diseases

The control of the spread of dengue fever by introduction of the intracellular parasitic bacterium Wolbachia in populations of the vector Aedes aegypti, is presently one of the most promising tools for eliminating dengue, in the absence of an efficient vaccine. The success of this operation requires locally careful planning to determine the adequate number of mosquitoes carrying the Wolbachia parasite that need to be introduced into the natural population. The latter are expected to eventually replace the Wolbachia-free population and guarantee permanent protection against the transmission of dengue to human. In this paper, we propose and analyze a model describing the fundamental aspects of the competition between mosquitoes carrying Wolbachia and mosquitoes free of the parasite. We then introduce a simple feedback control law to synthesize an introduction protocol, and prove that the population is guaranteed to converge to a stable equilibrium where the totality of mosquitoes carry Wolbachia. The techniques are based on the theory of monotone control systems, as developed after Angeli and Sontag. Due to bistability, the considered input-output system has multivalued static characteristics, but the existing results are unable to prove almost-global stabilization, and ad hoc analysis has to be conducted.

Exploring the dimensions of eco-feedback in the wild

Worldwide reports about energy usage have noted the importance of the domestic energy consumption sector in the worldwide scenario. This fact motivated and supported the birth and spread of the so-called eco-feedback devices. Such devices provide information about individual or group energy consumption behavior with the goal of reducing the impact in the environment. Motivated by the body of work which questions the long term effectiveness of eco-feedback systems, this thesis focus on evaluating in-the-wild the long term usage of eco-feedback systems. We have conducted five long term studies with different eco-feedback systems designed to evaluate different dimensions in the design of eco-feedback plus two more focused short term studies aimed at studying concrete approaches. Our summary reports on the fact that the there is a novelty effect associated with ecofeedback systems in which the usage of these devices declines significantly after a month. We did not found evidence that the novelty effect is related to location or the type of information represented, nor that the decrease in the eco-feedback usage could lead to the consumption relapsing to values previous to the introduction of the eco-feedback. Our work has also generated other contributions related to the positioning of the feedback, using metaphors for representing the consumption and presenting information about the source of the energy in the feedback.

Risk factors for recovery of Imipenem-or ceftazidime-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa among patients admitted to a teaching hospital in Brazil

background. The prevalence of resistance to imipenem and ceftazidime among Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates is increasing worldwide.objective. Risk factors for nosocomial recovery ( defined as the finding of culture- positive isolates after hospital admission) of imipenemresistant P. aeruginosa ( IRPA) and ceftazidime- resistant P. aeruginosa ( CRPA) were determined.design. Two separate case- control studies were conducted. Control subjects were matched to case patients ( ratio, 2: 1) on the basis of admission to the same ward at the same time as the case patient. Variables investigated included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and the classes of antimicrobials used.setting. The study was conducted in a 400- bed general teaching hospital in Campinas, Brazil that has 14,500 admissions per year. Case patients and control subjects were selected from persons who were admitted to the hospital during 1992 - 2002.results. IRPA and CRPA isolates were obtained from 108 and 55 patients, respectively. Statistically significant risk factors for acquisition of IRPA were previous admission to another hospital ( odds ratio [ OR], 4.21 [ 95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.40- 12.66];), hemodialysis Pp. 01 ( OR, 7.79 [ 95% CI, 1.59- 38.16];), and therapy with imipenem ( OR, 18.51 [ 95% CI, 6.30- 54.43];), amikacin ( OR, 3.22 Pp. 01 P !.001 [ 95% CI, 1.40- 7.41];), and/ or vancomycin ( OR, 2.48 [ 95% CI, 1.08- 5.64];). Risk factors for recovery of CRPA were Pp. 005 Pp. 03 previous admission to another hospital ( OR, 18.69 [ 95% CI, 2.00- 174.28];) and amikacin use ( OR, 3.69 [ 95% CI, 1.32- 10.35]; Pp. 01). Pp. 01conclusion. Our study suggests a definite role for several classes of antimicrobials as risk factors for recovery of IRPA but not for recovery of CRPA. Limiting the use of only imipenem and ceftazidime may not be a wise strategy to contain the spread of resistant P. aeruginosa strains.

Polyclonal endemicity of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a teaching hospital from Brazil: molecular typing of decade-old strains

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors of oropharyngeal carriage of Pseudomonas aeruginosa among patients from a Medical-Surgical Intensive Care Unit

Oropharyngeal carriage of Pseudomonas aeruginosa is associated with increased risk of infection and may provide a source for spread of drug-resistant strains. In order to assess the incidence and risk factors of oropharyngeal carriage, we conducted a retrospective cohort study based on results of surveillance cultures (oropharyngeal swabs) from a medical-surgical intensive care unit, collected from March 2005 through May 2006. Variables investigated included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, invasive procedures, use of devices and use of antimicrobials. Thirty case patients with P. aeruginosa carriage were identified. Other 84 patients with surveillance cultures negative to P. aeruginosa were enrolled as control subjects. Case patients were more likely to have a solid malignancy (Odds Ratio [OR] = 12.04, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.93-75.09, p=0.008), Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS, OR = 7.09, 95% CI=1.11-45.39, p = 0.04), central nervous system disease (OR = 4.51, 95% CI = 1.52-13.39, p = 0.007), or to have a central venous catheter placed (OR = 7.76, 95% CI = 1.68-35.79, p=0.009). The use of quinolones was a protective factor (OR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.03-0.47, p = 0.002). The predominance of comorbidities as risk factors points out a group of patients to whom preventive measures should be directed.

Cardiopulmonary and analgesic effects of caudal epidurally administered ropivacaine in cattle

Objective To assess cardiopulmonary and analgesic effects after administration of ropivacaine into the caudal epidural space of cattle.Study design Prospective, single-dose trial.Animals Eight healthy mixed breed cows aged 8 +/- 5 years and weighing 507 +/- 112 kg.Methods Caudal epidural anesthesia was produced in cows with 0.75% ropivacaine (0.11 mg kg(-1)). Onset time, duration and cranial spread of analgesia were recorded. Heart rate (HR), respiratory rate (f(R)), rectal temperature (RT), and mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) were measured prior to epidural administration (T-0) and at 15, 30, 60, 120, 180 and 240 minutes after epidural administration (T-15, T-30, T-60, T-120, T-180 and T-240). Arterial blood acid-base balance (pH, standard bicarbonate and base excess), gas tension (PaO2, PaCO2, SaO(2)) and electrolytes (Na+, K+, iCa(2+), Cl-) were recorded at T-0, T-30, T-60, T-120, T-180 and T-240. Ataxia was evaluated at T-0, T-30, T-60, T-120, T-180 and T-240 and at 1 hour intervals thereafter until analgesia was no longer present in each animal.Results Epidurally administered ropivacaine induced variable analgesia extending bilaterally from the coccyx to S3. Time to onset of analgesia and mean duration in the perineal area were 15 +/- 4 and 359 +/- 90 minutes, respectively. Respiratory rate and RT increased from T-120 to T-240 when compared to the value at T-0. Ionized calcium and chloride concentrations increased at T-180 and T-240 when compared to T-0. The other variables were not significantly different from baseline values (p > 0.05). Four animals were mildly ataxic.Conclusion and clinical relevance Ropivacaine (0.75%, 0.11 mg kg(-1)) can be administered by caudal epidural injection to produce prolonged bilateral perineal analgesia with minimal ataxia and cardiopulmonary changes in standing cattle.

Serological diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis by an enzyme immunoassay using protein A in naturally infected dogs

Um ensaio de imunoadsorção enzimática para detecção de anticorpos contra Leishmania chagasi, utilizando antígeno total de formas promastigotas lisados foi desenvolvido. Cinqüenta cães com sintomas clínicos de leishmaniose visceral foram examinados. Esta técnica utilizou anti-IgG de cão conjugado a peroxidase ou proteína A conjugado a peroxidase. Foi verificado que nos animais positivos diagnosticados por exame parasitológico direto o ensaio ELISA utilizando proteína A conjugada a peroxidase (média da densidade óptica ± desvio padrão 2,078 ± 0,631) detecta mais anticorpos do que o sistema utilizando anti-IgG de cão conjugado a peroxidase (média da densidade óptica ± desvio padrão 1,008 ± 0,437), enquanto para os animais negativos o resultado obtido nos dois sistemas de detecção são similares. Esse resultado sugere que o sistema de ELISA utilizando proteína A conjugado a peroxidase pode ser útil na detecção de animais na fase aguda da infecção e desta forma auxiliar na identificação dos animais positivos e no controle desta importante zoonose.

Chromosomal organization of the 18S and 5S rRNAs and histone H3 genes in Scarabaeinae coleopterans: insights into the evolutionary dynamics of multigene families and heterochromatin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Selective isolation of dematiaceous fungi from the workers of Atta laevigata (Formicidae: Attini)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reduction of a native fish fauna by alien species: an example from Brazilian freshwater tropical lakes

The consequences of introducing Cichla cf. monoculus Spix & Agassiz, Astronotus ocellatus (Agassiz) and Pygocentrus nattereri Kner into lakes in the River Doce basin, Brazil, on richness, diversity and efficiency of aquatic macrophytes as natural refugia to native fishes was investigated. Samples were taken from lakes with and without alien fishes in areas with and without aquatic macrophytes. The presence of alien fishes reduced richness and diversity of the native fish community. The refugia function, which could be attributed to the clustering of aquatic macrophytes, does not exist in these lakes probably because the alien fishes exploit such habitats for reproduction. Since introductions threaten the native fish diversity of the region, studies on regional dispersion and factors that minimise the spread of alien fishes are needed.

Case-case-control study of risk factors for nasopharyngeal colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a medical-surgical intensive care unit

Nasopharyngeal colonization with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) often precedes the development of nosocomial infections. In order to identify risk factors for MRSA colonization, we conducted a case-case-control study, enrolling 122 patients admitted to a medical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU). All patients had been screened for nasopharyngeal colonization with S. aureus upon admission and weekly thereafter. Two case-control studies were performed, using as cases patients who acquired colonization with MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA), respectively. For both studies, patients in whom colonization was not detected during ICU stay were selected as control subjects. Several potential risk factors were assessed in univariate and multivariable (logistic regression) analysis. MRSA and MSSA were recovered from nasopharyngeal samples from 27 and 10 patients, respectively. Independent risk factors for MRSA colonization were: length-of-stay in the ICU (Odds Ratio [OR]=1.12, 95%Confidence Interval[CI]=1.06-1.19, p<0.001) and use of ciprofloxacin (OR=5.05, 95%CI=1.38-21.90, p=0.015). The use of levofloxacin had a protective effect (OR=0.08, 95%CI=0.01-0.55, p=0.01). Colonization with MSSA was positively associated with central nervous system disease (OR=7.45, 95%CI=1.33-41.74, p=0.02) and negatively associated with age (OR=0.94, 95%CI=0.90-0.99, p=0.01). In conclusion, our study suggests a role for both cross-transmission and selective pressure of antimicrobials in the spread of MRSA.

Ability of bacteriophages isolated from different sources to reduce Salmonella enterica serovar enteritidis in vitro and in vivo

Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis-lysing bacteriophages isolated from poultry or human sewage sources were used to reduce Salmonella Enteritidis in vitro and in experimentally infected chicks. Cocktails of 4 different bacteriophages obtained from commercial broiler houses (CB4O) and 45 bacteriophages from a municipal wastewater treatment plant (WT45O) were evaluated. In experiment 1, an in vitro crop assay was conducted with selected bacteriophage concentrations (105 to 101 pfu/mL) to determine ability to reduce Salmonella Enteritidis in the simulated crop environment. Following 2 h at 37 degrees C, CB40 or WT45O reduced Salmonella Enteritidis recovery by 1.5 or 5 log, respectively, as compared with control. However, CB40 did not affect total SE recovery after 6 h, whereas WT45O resulted in up to a 6-log reduction of Salmonella Enteritidis. In experiment 2, day-of-hatch chicks were challenged orally with 3 x 103 cfu /chick Salmonella Enteritidis and treated cloacally with 1 X 109 WT45O pfu/chick I h postchallenge. One hour later, chicks were treated or not with a commercially available probiotic (Floramax-B11). Both treatments significantly reduced Salmonella Enteritidis recovery from cecal tonsils at 24 h following vent lip application as compared with controls, but no additive effect was observed with the combination of bacteriophages and probiotic. In experiment 3, day-of-hatch chicks were challenged orally with 9 x 103 cfu/chick Salmonella Enteritidis and treated via oral gavage with I X 108 CB40 pfu/chick, 1.2 x 108 WT45O pfu/chick, or a combination of both, I h postchallenge. All treatments significantly reduced Salmonella Enteritidis recovered from cecal tonsils at 24 h as compared with untreated controls, but no significant differences were observed at 48 h following treatment. These data suggest that some bacteriophages can be efficacious in reducing SE colonization in poultry during a short period, but with the bacteriophages and methods presently tested, persistent reductions were not observed.