Robust Nonlinear Mapping of Soil Contamination Using Support Regression

Spatial data analysis mapping and visualization is of great importance in various fields: environment, pollution, natural hazards and risks, epidemiology, spatial econometrics, etc. A basic task of spatial mapping is to make predictions based on some empirical data (measurements). A number of state-of-the-art methods can be used for the task: deterministic interpolations, methods of geostatistics: the family of kriging estimators (Deutsch and Journel, 1997), machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN) of different architectures, hybrid ANN-geostatistics models (Kanevski and Maignan, 2004; Kanevski et al., 1996), etc. All the methods mentioned above can be used for solving the problem of spatial data mapping. Environmental empirical data are always contaminated/corrupted by noise, and often with noise of unknown nature. That's one of the reasons why deterministic models can be inconsistent, since they treat the measurements as values of some unknown function that should be interpolated. Kriging estimators treat the measurements as the realization of some spatial randomn process. To obtain the estimation with kriging one has to model the spatial structure of the data: spatial correlation function or (semi-)variogram. This task can be complicated if there is not sufficient number of measurements and variogram is sensitive to outliers and extremes. ANN is a powerful tool, but it also suffers from the number of reasons. of a special type ? multiplayer perceptrons ? are often used as a detrending tool in hybrid (ANN+geostatistics) models (Kanevski and Maignank, 2004). Therefore, development and adaptation of the method that would be nonlinear and robust to noise in measurements, would deal with the small empirical datasets and which has solid mathematical background is of great importance. The present paper deals with such model, based on Statistical Learning Theory (SLT) - Support Vector Regression. SLT is a general mathematical framework devoted to the problem of estimation of the dependencies from empirical data (Hastie et al, 2004; Vapnik, 1998). SLT models for classification - Support Vector Machines - have shown good results on different machine learning tasks. The results of SVM classification of spatial data are also promising (Kanevski et al, 2002). The properties of SVM for regression - Support Vector Regression (SVR) are less studied. First results of the application of SVR for spatial mapping of physical quantities were obtained by the authorsin for mapping of medium porosity (Kanevski et al, 1999), and for mapping of radioactively contaminated territories (Kanevski and Canu, 2000). The present paper is devoted to further understanding of the properties of SVR model for spatial data analysis and mapping. Detailed description of the SVR theory can be found in (Cristianini and Shawe-Taylor, 2000; Smola, 1996) and basic equations for the nonlinear modeling are given in section 2. Section 3 discusses the application of SVR for spatial data mapping on the real case study - soil pollution by Cs137 radionuclide. Section 4 discusses the properties of the modelapplied to noised data or data with outliers.

BadiRate: Estimating Family Turnover Rates by Likelihood-Based Methods

Motivation: The comparative analysis of gene gain and loss rates is critical for understanding the role of natural selection and adaptation in shaping gene family sizes. Studying complete genome data from closely related species allows accurate estimation of gene family turnover rates. Current methods and software tools, however, are not well designed for dealing with certain kinds of functional elements, such as microRNAs or transcription factor binding sites. Results: Here, we describe BadiRate, a new software tool to estimate family turnover rates, as well as the number of elements in internal phylogenetic nodes, by likelihood-based methods and parsimony. It implements two stochastic population models, which provide the appropriate statistical framework for testing hypothesis, such as lineage-specific gene family expansions or contractions. We have assessed the accuracy of BadiRate by computer simulations, and have also illustrated its functionality by analyzing a representative empirical dataset.

Empirical study of correlated survival times for recurrent events with proportional hazards margins and the effect of correlation and censoring.

Background: In longitudinal studies where subjects experience recurrent incidents over a period of time, such as respiratory infections, fever or diarrhea, statistical methods are required to take into account the within-subject correlation. Methods: For repeated events data with censored failure, the independent increment (AG), marginal (WLW) and conditional (PWP) models are three multiple failure models that generalize Cox"s proportional hazard model. In this paper, we revise the efficiency, accuracy and robustness of all three models under simulated scenarios with varying degrees of within-subject correlation, censoring levels, maximum number of possible recurrences and sample size. We also study the methods performance on a real dataset from a cohort study with bronchial obstruction. Results: We find substantial differences between methods and there is not an optimal method. AG and PWP seem to be preferable to WLW for low correlation levels but the situation reverts for high correlations. Conclusions: All methods are stable in front of censoring, worsen with increasing recurrence levels and share a bias problem which, among other consequences, makes asymptotic normal confidence intervals not fully reliable, although they are well developed theoretically.

Adult native septic arthritis: a review of 10 years of experience and lessons for empirical antibiotic therapy.

Objectives To review the epidemiology of native septic arthritis to establish local guidelines for empirical antibiotic therapy as part of an antibiotic stewardship programme. Methods We conducted a 10 year retrospective study based on positive synovial fluid cultures and discharge diagnosis of septic arthritis in adult patients. Microbiology results and medical records were reviewed. Results Between 1999 and 2008, we identified 233 episodes of septic arthritis. The predominant causative pathogens were methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) and streptococci (respectively, 44.6% and 14.2% of cases). Only 11 cases (4.7%) of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) arthritis were diagnosed, among which 5 (45.5%) occurred in known carriers. For large-joint infections, amoxicillin/clavulanate or cefuroxime would have been appropriate in 84.5% of cases. MRSA and Mycobacterium tuberculosis would have been the most frequent pathogens that would not have been covered. In contrast, amoxicillin/clavulanate would have been appropriate for only 75.3% of small-joint infections (82.6% if diabetics are excluded). MRSA and Pseudomonas aeruginosa would have been the main pathogens not covered. Piperacillin/tazobactam would have been appropriate in 93.8% of cases (P < 0.01 versus amoxicillin/clavulanate). This statistically significant advantage is lost after exclusion of diabetics (P = 0.19). Conclusions Amoxicillin/clavulanate or cefuroxime would be adequate for empirical coverage of large-joint septic arthritis in our area. A broad-spectrum antibiotic would be significantly superior for small-joint infections in diabetics. Systematic coverage of MRSA is not justified, but should be considered for known carriers. These recommendations are applicable to our local setting. They might also apply to hospitals sharing the same epidemiology.

BadiRate: estimating family turnover rates by likelihood-based methods

Motivation: The comparative analysis of gene gain and loss rates is critical for understanding the role of natural selection and adaptation in shaping gene family sizes. Studying complete genome data from closely related species allows accurate estimation of gene family turnover rates. Current methods and software tools, however, are not well designed for dealing with certain kinds of functional elements, such as microRNAs or transcription factor binding sites. Results: Here, we describe BadiRate, a new software tool to estimate family turnover rates, as well as the number of elements in internal phylogenetic nodes, by likelihood-based methods and parsimony. It implements two stochastic population models, which provide the appropriate statistical framework for testing hypothesis, such as lineage-specific gene family expansions or contractions. We have assessed the accuracy of BadiRate by computer simulations, and have also illustrated its functionality by analyzing a representative empirical dataset.

Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

The Boundaries of the Firm from the Extended Transaction Cost Economics Point of View - Empirical Study

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia yrityksen rajoja laajennetun transaktiokustannusteorian näkökulmasta. Tutkimus oli empiirinen tutkimus, jossa tutkittiin viittä toimialaa. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli verrata paperiteollisuutta teräs-, kemian-, ICT- ja energiateollisuuteen. Aineisto empiiriseen osioon kerättiin puolistrukturoiduilla teemahaastatteluilla. Tutkimus osoitti, että laajennettu transaktiokustannusteoria soveltuu hyvinyrityksen rajojen määrittelyyn. Staattinen transaktiokustannusteorian selitysaste ei ole riittävä, joten dynaaminen laajennus on tarpeellinen. Tutkimuksessa ilmeni, että paperiteollisuudella verrattuna muihin toimialoihin on suurimmat haasteet tehokkaiden rajojen määrittämisessä.

Observations on Software Testing Practice

This thesis investigates factors that affect software testing practice. The thesis consists of empirical studies, in which the affecting factors were analyzed and interpreted using quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the Delphi method was used to specify the scope of the thesis. Secondly, for the quantitative analysis 40industry experts from 30 organizational units (OUs) were interviewed. The survey method was used to explore factors that affect software testing practice. Conclusions were derived using correlation and regression analysis. Thirdly, from these 30 OUs, five were further selected for an in-depth case study. The data was collected through 41 semi-structured interviews. The affecting factors and their relationships were interpreted with qualitative analysis using grounded theory as the research method. The practice of software testing was analyzed from the process improvement and knowledge management viewpoints. The qualitative and quantitativeresults were triangulated to increase the validity of the thesis. Results suggested that testing ought to be adjusted according to the business orientation of the OU; the business orientation affects the testing organization and knowledge management strategy, and the business orientation andthe knowledge management strategy affect outsourcing. As a special case, the complex relationship between testing schedules and knowledge transfer is discussed. The results of this thesis can be used in improvingtesting processes and knowledge management in software testing.

Establishing intercompany relationships: Motives and methods for successful collaborative engagement

This study explores the early phases of intercompany relationship building, which is a very important topic for purchasing and business development practitioners as well as for companies' upper management. There is a lot ofevidence that a proper engagement with markets increases a company's potential for achieving business success. Taking full advantage of the market possibilities requires, however, a holistic view of managing related decision-making chain. Most literature as well as the business processes of companies are lacking this holism. Typically they observe the process from the perspective of individual stages and thus lead to discontinuity and sub-optimization. This study contains a comprehensive introduction to and evaluation of literature related to various steps of the decision-making process. It is studied from a holistic perspective ofdetermining a company's vertical integration position within its demand/ supplynetwork context; translating the vertical integration objectives to feasible strategies and objectives; and operationalizing the decisions made through engagement with collaborative intercompany relationships. The empirical part of the research has been conducted in two sections. First the phenomenon of intercompany engagement is studied using two complementary case studies. Secondly a survey hasbeen conducted among the purchasing and business development managers of several electronics manufacturing companies, to analyze the processes, decision-makingcriteria and success factors of engagement for collaboration. The aim has been to identify the reasons why companies and their management act the way they do. As a combination of theoretical and empirical research an analysis has been produced of what would be an ideal way of engaging with markets. Based on the respective findings the study concludes by proposing a holistic framework for successful engagement. The evidence presented throughout the study demonstrates clear gaps, discontinuities and limitations in both current research and in practical purchasing decision-making chains. The most significant discontinuity is the identified disconnection between the supplier selection process and related criteria and the relationship success factors.

The role of smoking in changes in the survival curve: an empirical study in 10 European countries.

PURPOSE: We examined the role of smoking in the two dimensions behind the time trends in adult mortality in European countries, that is, rectangularization of the survival curve (mortality compression) and longevity extension (increase in the age-at-death). METHODS: Using data on national sex-specific populations aged 50 years and older from Denmark, Finland, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, we studied trends in life expectancy, rectangularity, and longevity from 1950 to 2009 for both all-cause and nonsmoking-related mortality and correlated them with trends in lifetime smoking prevalence. RESULTS: For all-cause mortality, rectangularization accelerated around 1980 among men in all the countries studied, and more recently among women in Denmark and the United Kingdom. Trends in lifetime smoking prevalence correlated negatively with both rectangularization and longevity extension, but more negatively with rectangularization. For nonsmoking-related mortality, rectangularization among men did not accelerate around 1980. Among women, the differences between all-cause mortality and nonsmoking-related mortality were small, but larger for rectangularization than for longevity extension. Rectangularization contributed less to the increase in life expectancy than longevity extension, especially for nonsmoking-related mortality among men. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking affects rectangularization more than longevity extension, both among men and women.

A semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation model for ion binding to ionizable surfaces: Proton binding of carboxylated latex particles as a case study

In this paper, we present a computer simulation study of the ion binding process at an ionizable surface using a semi-grand canonical Monte Carlo method that models the surface as a discrete distribution of charged and neutral functional groups in equilibrium with explicit ions modelled in the context of the primitive model. The parameters of the simulation model were tuned and checked by comparison with experimental titrations of carboxylated latex particles in the presence of different ionic strengths of monovalent ions. The titration of these particles was analysed by calculating the degree of dissociation of the latex functional groups vs. pH curves at different background salt concentrations. As the charge of the titrated surface changes during the simulation, a procedure to keep the electroneutrality of the system is required. Here, two approaches are used with the choice depending on the ion selected to maintain electroneutrality: counterion or coion procedures. We compare and discuss the difference between the procedures. The simulations also provided a microscopic description of the electrostatic double layer (EDL) structure as a function of pH and ionic strength. The results allow us to quantify the effect of the size of the background salt ions and of the surface functional groups on the degree of dissociation. The non-homogeneous structure of the EDL was revealed by plotting the counterion density profiles around charged and neutral surface functional groups. © 2011 American Institute of Physics.

Vulnerability as a heuristic for interdisciplinary research: Assessing the thematic and methodological structure of empirical life-course studies

Changes in human lives are studied in psychology, sociology, and adjacent fields as outcomes of developmental processes, institutional regulations and policies, culturally and normatively structured life courses, or empirical accounts. However, such studies have used a wide range of complementary, but often divergent, concepts. This review has two aims. First, we report on the structure that has emerged from scientific life course research by focusing on abstracts from longitudinal and life course studies beginning with the year 2000. Second, we provide a sense of the disciplinary diversity of the field and assess the value of the concept of 'vulnerability' as a heuristic tool for studying human lives. Applying correspondence analysis to 10,632 scientific abstracts, we find a disciplinary divide between psychology and sociology, and observe indications of both similarities of-and differences between-studies, driven at least partly by the data and methods employed. We also find that vulnerability takes a central position in this scientific field, which leads us to suggest several reasons to see value in pursuing theory development for longitudinal and life course studies in this direction.

Impact of the introduction of real-time therapeutic drug monitoring on empirical doses of carbapenems in critically ill burn patients.

PURPOSE: Adequate empirical antibiotic dose selection for critically ill burn patients is difficult due to extreme variability in drug pharmacokinetics. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may aid antibiotic prescription and implementation of initial empirical antimicrobial dosage recommendations. This study evaluated how gradual TDM introduction altered empirical dosages of meropenem and imipenem/cilastatin in our burn ICU. METHODS: Imipenem/cilastatin and meropenem use and daily empirical dosage at a five-bed burn ICU were analyzed retrospectively. Data for all burn admissions between 2001 and 2011 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. For each patient receiving a carbapenem, episodes of infection were reviewed and scored according to predefined criteria. Carbapenem trough serum levels were characterized. Prior to May 2007, TDM was available only by special request. Real-time carbapenem TDM was introduced in June 2007; it was initially available weekly and has been available 4 days a week since 2010. RESULTS: Of 365 patients, 229 (63%) received antibiotics (109 received carbapenems). Of 23 TDM determinations for imipenem/cilastatin, none exceeded the predefined upper limit and 11 (47.8%) were insufficient; the number of TDM requests was correlated with daily dose (r=0.7). Similar numbers of inappropriate meropenem trough levels (30.4%) were below and above the upper limit. Real-time TDM introduction increased the empirical dose of imipenem/cilastatin, but not meropenem. CONCLUSIONS: Real-time carbapenem TDM availability significantly altered the empirical daily dosage of imipenem/cilastatin at our burn ICU. Further studies are needed to evaluate the individual impact of TDM-based antibiotic adjustment on infection outcomes in these patients.

Completion and Publication Rates of Randomized Controlled Trials in Surgery: An Empirical Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS: All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

The Key Features of Knowledge and Knowledge Management in Product Development Process

Tutkimusongelmana oli kuinka tiedon johtamisella voidaan edesauttaa tuotekehitysprosessia. Mitkä ovat ne avaintekijät tietoympäristössä kuin myös itse tiedossa, joilla on merkitystä erityisesti tuotekehitysprosessin arvon muodostumiseen ja prosessien kehittämiseen? Tutkimus on laadullinen Case-tutkimus. Tutkimusongelmat on ensin selvitetty kirjallisuuden avulla, jonka jälkeen teoreettinen viitekehys on rakennettu tutkimaan rajattua ongelma-aluetta case-yrityksestä. Empiirisen tutkimuksen materiaali koostuu pääasiallisesti henkilökohtaisten teemahaastattelujen aineistosta. Tulokset merkittävimmistä tiedon hyväksikäytön haittatekijöistä, kuten myös parannusehdotukset on lajiteltu teoreettisessa viitekehyksessä esitettyjen oletustekijöiden mukaan. Haastatteluissa saadut vastaukset tukevat kirjallisuudesta ja alan ammattilaiselta saatua käsitystä tärkeimmistä vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Tärkeimmät toimenpiteet ja aloitteet joilla parannettaisiin tiedon muodostumista, koskivat ennnen kaikkea työnteon ulkoisia olosuhteita, eikä niinkään tiedon muodostumisen prosessia itseään. Merkittävimpiä haittatekijöitä olivat kultturiin, fyysiseen ja henkiseen tilaan ja henkilöstöresursseihin liittyvät ongelmat. Ratkaisuja ongelmiin odotettiin saatavan lähinnä tietotekniikan, henkilöstöresurssien ja itse tiedon muokkaamisen avulla. Tuotekehitysprosessin ydin tietovirtojen ja –pääomien luokittelu ja tulkitseminen tiedon muodostusta kuvaavan Learning Spiralin avulla antoi lähinnä teoreettisia viitteitä siitä millaisia keinoja on olemassa tiedon lisäämiseen ja jakamiseen eri tietotyypeittäin. Tulosten perusteella caseyrityksessä pitäisi kiinnittää erityistä huomiota tiedon dokumentointiin ja jakamiseen erityisesti sen tiedon osalta, joka on organisaatiossa vain harvalla ja/tai luonteeltaan hyvin tacitia.