Future of the Clean Development Mechanism in Tackling Climate Change

Using a theoretical framework, we explain the impact of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries. We show that on one hand, emissions in the non-Annex I country decline because of abatement sponsored by the Annex I country under the CDM; on the other hand, emissions may increase because (i) the Annex I country increases emissions in its own country, and (ii) the non-Annex I country crowds out the bene ts from the CDM projects by increasing its domestic emissions. For the CDM to be e¤ective in reducing global emissions, we show that partial Certi ed Emissions Reduction credits should be given to the Annex I country that sponsors CDM projects in the non-Annex I country. We also suggest that the CDM Executive Board should not allow the CDM projects to be hosted by non-Annex I countries that are too conscious about their emission levels.

Does Semantic Context Benefit Speech Understanding through "Top-Down" Processes? Evidence from Time-resolved Sparse fMRI.

When speech is degraded, word report is higher for semantically coherent sentences (e.g., her new skirt was made of denim) than for anomalous sentences (e.g., her good slope was done in carrot). Such increased intelligibility is often described as resulting from "top-down" processes, reflecting an assumption that higher-level (semantic) neural processes support lower-level (perceptual) mechanisms. We used time-resolved sparse fMRI to test for top-down neural mechanisms, measuring activity while participants heard coherent and anomalous sentences presented in speech envelope/spectrum noise at varying signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). The timing of BOLD responses to more intelligible speech provides evidence of hierarchical organization, with earlier responses in peri-auditory regions of the posterior superior temporal gyrus than in more distant temporal and frontal regions. Despite Sentence content × SNR interactions in the superior temporal gyrus, prefrontal regions respond after auditory/perceptual regions. Although we cannot rule out top-down effects, this pattern is more compatible with a purely feedforward or bottom-up account, in which the results of lower-level perceptual processing are passed to inferior frontal regions. Behavioral and neural evidence that sentence content influences perception of degraded speech does not necessarily imply "top-down" neural processes.

The Change Questionnaire predicts change in hazardous tobacco and alcohol use.

INTRODUCTION: Assessing motivation for change is deemed an important step in the treatment process that allows further refinement of the intervention in motivational interviewing (MI) and brief MI (BMI) adaptations. During MI (and BMI) sessions, motivation for change is expressed by the client as "change talk", i.e. all statements inclined toward or away from change. We tested the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire, a 12-item instrument assessing motivation to change, on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use. METHODS: As part of the baseline measurements for a randomized controlled trial on multi-substance BMI at the Lausanne recruitment center (army conscription is mandatory in Switzerland for males at age 20, and thus provides a unique opportunity to address a non-clinical and largely representative sample of young men), 213 participants completed the questionnaire on tobacco and 95 on alcohol and were followed-up six months later. The overall Change Questionnaire score and its six subscales (Desire, Ability, Reasons, Need, Commitment, and Taking steps) were used as predictors of hazardous tobacco use (defined as daily smoking) and hazardous alcohol use (defined as more than one occasion with six standard drinks or more per month, and/or more than 21 standard drinks per week) in bivariate logistic regression models at follow-up. RESULTS: Higher overall Change scores were significant predictors of decreased risk for hazardous tobacco (odds ratio [OR] = 0.83, p = 0.046) and alcohol (OR = 0.76, p = 0.03) use. Several sub-dimensions were associated with the outcomes in bivariate analyses. Using a principal components analysis to reduce the number of predictors for multivariate models, we obtained two components. 'Ability to change' was strongly related to change in hazardous tobacco use (OR = 0.54, p < 0.001), the second we interpreted as 'Other change language dimensions' and which was significantly related to change in hazardous alcohol use (OR = 0.81, p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present findings lend initial support for the predictive validity of the Change Questionnaire on hazardous tobacco and alcohol use, making it an interesting and potentially useful tool for assessing motivation to change among young males.

Does readiness to change predict subsequent alcohol consumption in medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use?

We studied whether readiness to change predicts alcohol consumption (drinks per day) 3 months later in 267 medical inpatients with unhealthy alcohol use. We used 3 readiness to change measures: a 1 to 10 visual analog scale (VAS) and two factors of the Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale: Perception of Problems (PP) and Taking Action (TA). Subjects with the highest level of VAS-measured readiness consumed significantly fewer drinks 3 months later [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57 (0.36, 0.91) highest vs. lowest tertile]. Greater PP was associated with more drinking [IRR (95%CI): 1.94 (1.02, 3.68) third vs. lowest quartile]. Greater TA scores were associated with less drinking [IRR (95%CI): 0.42 (0.23, 0.78) highest vs. lowest quartile]. Perception of Problems' association with more drinking may reflect severity rather than an aspect of readiness associated with ability to change; high levels of Taking Action appear to predict less drinking. Although assessing readiness to change may have clinical utility, assessing the patient's planned actions may have more predictive value for future improvement in alcohol consumption.

Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguous assessments of climate damages. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policy makers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?

The standard approach to the economics of climate change, which has its best known implementation in Nordhaus's DICE and RICE models (well described in Nordhaus's 2008 book, A Question of Balance) is not well equipped to deal with the possibility of catastrophe, since we are unable to evaluate a risk averse representative agent's expected utility when there is any signi cant probability of zero consumption. Whilst other authors attempt to develop new tools with which to address these problems, the simple solution proposed in this paper is to ask a question that the currently available tools of climate change economics are capable of answering. Rather than having agents optimally choosing a path (that differs from the recommendations of climate scientists) within models which cannot capture the essential features of the problem, I argue that economic models should be used to determine the savings and investment paths which implement climate targets that have been suggested in the physical science literature.

How do technical change and technological distance influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient?

How does technical change influence the size of the Okun’s Law coefficient? Using a nonlinear version of Okun’s Law augmented with technical change and technological distance, we show that the impact of output movements on unemployment variations is influenced by the imitation or innovation origins of technical change

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

The twist, writhe and overall shape of supercoiled DNA change during counterion-induced transition from a loosely to a tightly interwound superhelix. Possible implications for DNA structure in vivo.

A cryo-electron microscopy study of supercoiled DNA molecules freely suspended in cryo-vitrified buffer was combined with Monte Carlo simulations and gel electrophoretic analysis to investigate the role of intersegmental electrostatic repulsion in determining the shape of supercoiled DNA molecules. It is demonstrated here that a decrease of DNA-DNA repulsion by increasing concentrations of counterions causes a higher fraction of the linking number deficit to be partitioned into writhe. When counterions reach concentrations likely to be present under in vivo conditions, naturally supercoiled plasmids adopt a tightly interwound conformation. In these tightly supercoiled DNA molecules the opposing segments of interwound superhelix seem to directly contact each other. This form of supercoiling, where two DNA helices interact laterally, may represent an important functional state of DNA. In the particular case of supercoiled minicircles (178 bp) the delta Lk = -2 topoisomers undergo a sharp structural transition from almost planar circles in low salt buffers to strongly writhed "figure-eight" conformations in buffers containing neutralizing concentrations of counterions. Possible implications of this observed structural transition in DNA are discussed.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

From Bretton Woods to inflation targeting: financial change and monetary policy evolution in Europe

Different ‘monetary architectures’ are distinguished, as a background to a discussion of the change in developed country monetary policy frameworks from fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods international monetary system to, ultimately, formal or informal inflation targeting. The introduction and experience of monetary targets in the 1970s is considered, followed by an analysis of the changes in countries’ monetary architectures, with particular reference to money and bond markets and to France and Italy, in the 1980s. Exchange rate targeting in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s is examined, followed by the changes in central bank independence in the 1990s. This leads to a discussion of the introduction of inflation targeting, and the issues raised for inflation targeting by the financial crisis of the late 2000s.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity in an endangered lizard species.

Many endangered species persist as a series of isolated populations, with some populations more genetically diverse than others. If climate change disproportionately threatens the most diverse populations, the species' ability to adapt (and hence its long-term viability) may be affected more severely than would be apparent by its numerical reduction. In the present study, we combine genetic data with modelling of species distributions under climate change to document this situation in an endangered lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis) from montane southeastern Australia. The species is known from only about 40 isolated swamps. Genetic diversity of lizard populations is greater in some sites than others, presumably reflecting consistently high habitat suitability over evolutionary time. Species distribution modelling suggests that the most genetically diverse populations are the ones most at risk from climate change, so that global warming will erode the species' genetic variability faster than it curtails the species' geographic distribution.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.