Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Grenada

Changing precipitation patterns and temperature relate directly to water resources and water security. This report presents the findings of an assessment of the water sector in Grenada with respect to the projected impact of climate change. Grenada‘s water resources comprise primarily surface water, with an estimated groundwater potential to satisfy about 10%-15% of the present potable requirement. On the smaller islands Carriacou and Petite Martinique, domestic water is derived exclusively from rainwater catchments. Rainfall seasonality is marked and the available surface water during the dry season declines dramatically. Changing land use patterns, increase in population, expansion in tourism and future implementation of proposed irrigation schemes are projected to increase future water requirements. Economic modeling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios as illustrated. The results suggest that water supply will exceed forecasted water demand under B2 and BAU during all four decades. However under the A2 scenario, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025. It is important to note that the model has been constrained by the omission of several key parameters, and time series for climate indicators, data for which are unavailable. Some of these include time series for discharge data, rainfall-runoff data, groundwater recharge rates, and evapotranspiration. Further, the findings which seem to indicate adequacy of water are also masked by seasonality in a given year, variation from year to year, and spatial variation within the nation state. It is imperative that some emphasis be placed on data generation in order to better project for the management of Grenada‘s water security. This analysis indicates the need for additional water catchment, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as institutional strengthening, in order to meet the future needs of the Grenadian population. Strategic priorities should be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Grenada has embarked on several initiatives that can be considered strategies toward adaptation to the variabilities associated with climate change. The Government should ensure that these programs be carried out to the optimal levels for reasons described above. The ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that measures will be beneficial with or without climate change should be adopted. A study on the Costs of Inaction for the Caribbean in the face of climate change listed Grenada among the countries which would experience significant impacts on GDP between now and 2100 without adaptation interventions. Investment in the water sector is germane to building Grenada‘s capacity to cope with the multivariate impact of changes in the parameters of climate.

Jamaica: Report of the macro socio-economic effects of the events in western Kingston area 22 May- 7 June 2010

.--I. Background.--II. The affected population.--III. Sectoral analysis of damage and loss.--IV. The macro socio economic effect of the event.--V. Conclusions and recommendations

The Outlook for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Americas: A Perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean 2015-2016

In this, the sixth in the series of documents entitled “Outlook for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Americas,” the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) analyze the trends in, and outlook for, the macroeconomic and sectoral contexts, agriculture, rural well-being, and policies and the institutional framework in the sector. The document presents proposals for policies needed to enable the region’s agriculture to regain its former buoyancy and to enhance the development of rural areas. It also includes recommendations designed to mitigate the impact of the economic slowdown in agriculture, spur higher agricultural productivity in the region, foster the integrated management of natural resources, and facilitate the successful incorporation of family farmers, young people, and rural women into agricultural value chains.

Assessment of the effects of disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1972-2010

The purpose of this work is to review ECLAC’s experience in assessing the economic and social impact of disasters. Toward that end, the database established according to assessment reports is described and the patterns of sectoral damage and losses from different types of events are defined.

Dinâmica econômica e recentes transformações no transporte marítimo de cabotagem e longo curso no Brasil: alguns apontamentos sobre a modernização portuária no Estado de São Paulo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Educação rural e desenvolvimento local sustentável: a lógica subjacente das relações inter-setoriais

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar os modelos de educação gerados nos processos de ocupação da terra nos municípios Juazeiro, Uauá e Valente no Estado da Bahia, tanto nas áreas irrigadas quanto nas de sequeiro, tendo como hipótese norteadora a educação rural como mecanismo disseminador de informações à população e grande mobilizadora das transformações social, econômica, política e cultural das comunidades, na promoção do seu desenvolvimento sustentável. A metodologia da pesquisa tomou por base a análise das redes de relações sociais engendradas no processo, elegendo-se como categorias preferências para a compreensão do fenômeno estudado o capital social, o desenvolvimento local, pedagogias alternativas, currículo escolar e as parcerias intersetoriais, através da ruptura com o antagonismo dos conceitos de indivíduo e de sociedade. Trata-se de pesquisa quanti-qualitativa fundamentada numa abordagem de caráter interativo, onde o discurso emerge como espaço de negociação do sentido e da construção dos sujeitos aprendizes, cujos subsídios somados às evidências quantitativas permitiram o aprofundamento da complexidade dos fenômenos, suas contradições e seu relacionamento com o contexto. A análise dos dados permitiu compreender que a Educação Rural nas áreas pesquisadas vive duas situações: uma, veiculada pelo sistema público de ensino que, salvo algumas experiências pontuais, não atende aos interesses dos povos que habitam e trabalham no campo. Outra, exercitada por Organizações Não Governamentais que valorizando o rural como espaço de vida, forma indivíduos com um repertório de saberes, habilidades e valores capaz de mobilizá-los para uma ação transformadora.

Evolução agrária do Nordeste paraense por contas sociais ascendentes: a inclusão das redes mercantis de insumos nos processos metodológicos e o cálculo dos níveis de endogenização

A importância deste trabalho está em analisar a dinâmica da evolução econômica do Nordeste Paraense, por suas estruturas fundamentais de produção no agrário, interpretando-se os resultados por meio dos impactos setoriais e os transbordamentos da renda e do produto na economia. Para tanto, aplicou-se o modelo de Contas Sociais Ascendentes de Base Agrária (Matriz de Insumo-Produto) metodologicamente mais abrangente que as primeiras abordagens aplicadas em trabalhos anteriores realizados por Pires (2002) e André (2004) a mesma região, todas derivadas de Costa (2002abcd), inclusive este trabalho. Entre outras diferenciações, o modelo desenvolvido inicialmente estava ligado internamente pelo fluxo de produtos entre as dimensões geográficas do local, ao estadual e nacional, em que o valor da produção é formado no sentido que vai da produção até o consumo final, ou ainda, do rural para o urbano: segue o sentido que vai da produção local até a demanda final nacional. Para este trabalho, a forma metodologicamente adotada, já apresentada por Costa em 2008, no Sudeste Paraense, incorpora, primordialmente, as cadeias backward de insumos e investimentos em que são reconstituídos os trajetos dos agentes produtores até o “primeiro fornecedor”, tanto para as redes de formação de preço, quanto de salários e margem bruta (markup), o que possibilita, uma análise diferenciada dos multiplicadores quanto aos impactos setoriais, implicando nas análises de retenções e transbordamentos da renda e do produto entre as formas de produção e suas ocorrências estruturais geográficas, na verificação das disposições das forças centrípetas e centrífugas, o que permite fazer interpretações quanto às possibilidades de conexões econômicas locais para o desenvolvimento, a partir dos índices de aglomeração.

Respostas eletromagnéticas dos arranjos coplanar e coaxial em poço

Foi estudado a viabilidade de aplicação do arranjo coplanar de bobinas nas sondas de perfilagem em poço por indução eletromagnética. Paralelamente foram geradas as respostas do convencional arranjo coaxial, que é o amplamente utilizado nas sondas comerciais, com o propósito de elaborar uma análise comparativa. Através da solução analítica (meios homogêneos) e semi-analítica (meios heterogêneos) foram geradas inicialmente as respostas para modelos mais simples, tais como os do (1) meio homogêneo, isotrópico e ilimitado; (2) uma casca cilíndrica simulando a frente de invasão; (3) duas cascas cilíndricas para simular o efeito annulus; (4) uma interface plana e dois semi-espaços simulando o contato entre duas camadas espessas e (5) uma camada plano-horizontal e dois semi-espaços iguais. Apesar da simplicidade destes modelos, eles permitem uma análise detalhada dos efeitos que alguns parâmetros geoelétricos têm sobre as respostas. Aí então, aplicando ainda as condições de contorno nas fronteiras (Sommerfeld Boundary Value Problem), obtivemos as soluções semi-analíticas que nos permitiram simular as respostas em modelos relativamente mais complexos, tais como (1) zonas de transição gradacional nas frentes de invasão; (2) seqüências de camadas plano-paralelas horizontais e inclinadas; (3) seqüências laminadas que permitem simular meios anisotrópicos e (4) passagem gradacional entre duas camadas espessas. Concluimos que o arranjo coplanar de bobinas pode ser uma ferramenta auxiliar na (1) demarcação das interfaces de camadas espessas; (2) posicionamento dos reservatórios de pequenas espessuras; (3) avaliação de perfis de invasão e (4) localizar variações de condutividade azimutalmente.

Caracterização do crescimento folicular, ovulação e atividade lútea após tratamento com progestágenos de borregas pré-púberes Santa Inês portadores de gene FecGe

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Morfologia e biometria do aparelho reprodutor feminino da capivara (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Puberdade em novilhas Nelore provenientes de duas linhas de seleção para peso

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multilatinas na global economy. historical characterization, sectorial and space

The successive crises for which has passed in the world economy since the years 1970, together with the United States 'hegemonic crisis, have created the conditions for the reordering and the construction of a multipolar world, with the increasing importance of some peripheral countries into the world economy, particularly with regard to capital flows. This article represents an effort to bring to light the analysis on the decrease of importance of developed countries in world investment flows and corresponding increase in the relevance of some peripheral countries. The objective underlying the text is understanding the expansion of space circuits of production of multinational companies in Latin America (Multilatinas) at different spatial scales, by means of an analysis of the temporal, spatial and sectoral dimensions of the investments. The methodological procedures adopted covered survey, selection and bibliographic data compilation, reading in international organizations (UNCTAD and ECLAC), systematization of data, analysis of data in the light of the theoretical reflections.

Estudo da passagem de diferentes concentrações de ácido fosfórico através da dentina e observação da morfologia dentinária pelo microscópio eletrônico de varredura

Pós-graduação em Odontologia Restauradora - ICT