Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Vibration and oil analysis for monitoring problems related to water contamination in rolling

Trying to reduce particle contamination in lubrication systems, industries of the whole world spend millions of dollars each year on the improvement of filtration technology. In this context, by controlling fluid cleanliness, some companies are able to reduce failures rates up to 85 percent. However, in some industries and environments, water is a contaminant more frequently encountered than solid particles, and it is often seen as the primary cause of component failure. Only one percent of water in oil is enough to reduce life expectancy of a journal bearing by 80 percent. For rolling bearing elements, the situation is worse because water destroys the oil film and, under the extreme temperatures and pressures generated in the load zone of a rolling bearing element, free and emulsified water can result in instantaneous flash-vaporization giving origin to erosive wear. This work studies the effect of water as lubricant contaminant in ball bearings, which simulates a situation that could actually occur in real systems. In a designed bench test, three basic lubricants of different viscosities were contaminated with different contents of water. The results regarding oil and vibration analysis are presented for different bearing speeds.

Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Preprocessing data for short-term load forecasting with a general regression neural network and a moving average filter

This paper proposes a filter based on a general regression neural network and a moving average filter, for preprocessing half-hourly load data for short-term multinodal load forecasting, discussed in another paper. Tests made with half-hourly load data from nine New Zealand electrical substations demonstrate that this filter is able to handle noise, missing data and abnormal data. © 2011 IEEE.

Short-term multinodal load forecasting in distribution systems using general regression neural networks

Multinodal load forecasting deals with the loads of several interest nodes in an electrical network system, which is also known as bus load forecasting. To perform this demand, it is necessary a technique that is precise, trustable and has a short-time processing. This paper proposes two methodologies based on general regression neural networks for short-term multinodal load forecasting. The first individually forecast the local loads and the second forecast the global load and individually forecast the load participation factors to estimate the local loads. To design the forecasters it wasn't necessary the previous study of the local loads. Tests were made using a New Zealand distribution subsystem and the results obtained are compatible with the ones founded in the specialized literature. © 2011 IEEE.

Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Privatizing and rolling back the Latin American State

Includes bibliography

Contrasting engineering effects of leaf-rolling caterpillars on a tropical mite community

Ecosystem engineers are organisms that change the physical structure of environments and provide habitats for other organisms. Lepidopteran caterpillars may act as ecosystem engineers by rolling leaves as shelters to complete metamorphosis. After being abandoned, these structures may provide shelter for other organisms. In this study, the influence of leaf-rolling caterpillars on tropical mite communities was reported. Expanded leaves and leaves rolled by larvae and also developed field experiments using leaves rolled manually with different shapes and sizes (i.e. different architectures) in different seasons were surveyed (dry and rainy). While the abundance and diversity of predatory mites were higher in rolled leaves, the abundance of phytophages decreased in these leaves. Species composition differed between rolled and expanded leaves. The structure of shelters affected the distribution of predatory mites, with higher abundances found on funnel-shaped leaves. Predatory mites only benefited from the rolled leaves in the dry season. This is the first study showing (i) the contrasting effects of ecosystem engineers on microarthropod communities, favouring some feeding guilds and inhibiting others; (ii) that the shape of rolled leaves has variable effects on mite communities; and (iii) that facilitation was temporally dependent, i.e. occurred only in the dry season. © 2013 The Royal Entomological Society.

A priori reformulations for joint rolling-horizon scheduling of materials processing and lot-sizing problem

In many production processes, a key material is prepared and then transformed into different final products. The lot sizing decisions concern not only the production of final products, but also that of material preparation in order to take account of their sequence-dependent setup costs and times. The amount of research in recent years indicates the relevance of this problem in various industrial settings. In this paper, facility location reformulation and strengthening constraints are newly applied to a previous lot-sizing model in order to improve solution quality and computing time. Three alternative metaheuristics are used to fix the setup variables, resulting in much improved performance over previous research, especially regarding the use of the metaheuristics for larger instances. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for forecasting electric power demand

Includes bibliography

Jornalismo e cultura de consumo: uma análise da Revista Rolling Stone - Brasil

Pós-graduação em Comunicação - FAAC

Forecasting tourist arrivals in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography