Managing project risk using combined analytic hierarchy process and risk map

The main purpose of the study is to develop an integrated framework for managing project risks by analyzing risk across project, work package and activity levels, and developing responses. Design/methodology/approach: The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study. Findings: The combined AHP and risk map approach is very effective to manage project risks across project, work package and activity levels. The risk factors in project level are caused because of external forces such as business environment (e.g. customers, competitors, technological development, politics, socioeconomic environment). The risk factors in work package and activity levels are operational in nature and created due to internal causes such as lack of material and labor productivity, implementation issues, team ineffectiveness, etc. Practical implications: The suggested model can be applied to any complex project and helps manage risk throughout the project life cycle. Originality/value: Both business and operational risks constitute project risks. In one hand, the conventional project risk management frameworks emphasize on managing business risks and often ignore operational risks. On the other hand, the studies that deal with operational risk often do not link them with business risks. However, they need to be addressed in an integrated way as there are a few risks that affect only the specific level. Hence, this study bridges the gaps. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resilience and adaptation of small and medium-sized enterprises to flood risk

Purpose – The UK has experienced a number of flood events in recent years, and the intensity and frequency of such events are forecast to further increase in future due to changing climatic conditions. Accordingly, enhancing the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – which form an important segment in a society – to flood risk, has emerged as an important issue. However, SMEs often tend to underestimate the risk of flooding which tends to have a low priority in their business agenda. The purpose of this paper is to undertake an investigation of adaptation to the risk of flooding considering community-level measures, individual-level property protection, and business continuity and resilience measures. Design/methodology/approach – A total of four short case studies were conducted among SMEs to identify their response to flood risk, and what measures have been undertaken to manage the risk of flooding. Findings – It was observed that SMEs have implemented different property-level protection measures and generic business continuity/risk management measures, based on their requirements, to achieve a desired level of protection. Practical implications – SMEs are likely to positively respond to property-level adaptation following a post-flood situation. It is important that information such as costs/benefits of such measures and different options available are made accessible to SMEs affected by a flood event. Social implications – Implementation of property-level adaptation measures will contribute towards the long term adaptation of the existing building stock to changing climatic conditions. Originality/value – The paper contributes towards policy making on flood risk adaptation and SME decision making, and informs policy makers and practitioners.

Private climate change reporting: an emerging discourse of risk and opportunity?

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the nature of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, which takes place in one-on-one meetings between institutional investors and their investee companies. Design/methodology/approach – Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from 20 UK investment institutions to derive data which was then coded and analysed, in order to derive a picture of the emerging discourse of private climate change reporting, using an interpretive methodological approach, in addition to explorative analysis using NVivo software. Findings – The authors find that private climate change reporting is dominated by a discourse of risk and risk management. This emerging risk discourse derives from institutional investors' belief that climate change represents a material risk, that it is the most salient sustainability issue, and that their clients require them to manage climate change-related risk within their portfolio investment. It is found that institutional investors are using the private reporting process to compensate for the acknowledged inadequacies of public climate change reporting. Contrary to evidence indicating corporate capture of public sustainability reporting, these findings suggest that the emerging private climate change reporting discourse is being captured by the institutional investment community. There is also evidence of an emerging discourse of opportunity in private climate change reporting as the institutional investors are increasingly aware of a range of ways in which climate change presents material opportunities for their investee companies to exploit. Lastly, the authors find an absence of any ethical discourse, such that private climate change reporting reinforces rather than challenges the “business case” status quo. Originality/value – Although there is a wealth of sustainability reporting research, there is no academic research on private climate change reporting. This paper attempts to fill this gap by providing rich interview evidence regarding the nature of the emerging private climate change reporting discourse.

Reporting and managing risk:a look at current practice at Tesco, RBS, local and central government

These case studies from CIMA highlight the need to embed risk management within more easily understood behaviours, consistent with the overall organisational culture. In each case, some form of internal audit team provides either an oversight function or acts as an expert link in that feedback loop. Frontline staff, managers and specialists should be completely aligned on risk, in part just to ensure that there is a consistency of approach. They should understand instinctively that good performance includes good risk management. Tesco has continued to thrive during the recession and remains a robust and efficient group of businesses despite the emergence of potential threats around consumer spending and the supply chain. RBS, by contrast, has suffered catastrophic and very public failures of risk management despite a large in-house function and stiff regulation of risk controls. Birmingham City Council, like all local authorities, is adapting to more commercial modes of operation and is facing diverse threats and opportunities emerging as a result of social change. And DCMS, like many other public sector organisations, has to handle an incredibly complex network of delivery partners within the context of a relatively recent overhaul of central government risk management processes. Key Findings: •Risk management is no longer solely a financial discipline, nor is it simply a concern for the internal control function. •Where organisations retain a discrete risk management cadre – often specialists at monitoring and evaluating a range of risks – their success is dependent on embedding risk awareness in the wider culture of the enterprise. •Risk management is most successful when it is explicitly linked to operational performance. •Clear leadership, specific goals, excellent influencing skills and open-mindedness to potential threats and opportunities are essential for effective risk management. •Bureaucratic processes and systems can hamper good risk management – either as a result of a ‘box-ticking mentality’ or because managers and staff believe they do not need to consider risk themselves.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

On the Lp-Norm Regression Models for Estimating Value-at-Risk

Analysis of risk measures associated with price series data movements and its predictions are of strategic importance in the financial markets as well as to policy makers in particular for short- and longterm planning for setting up economic growth targets. For example, oilprice risk-management focuses primarily on when and how an organization can best prevent the costly exposure to price risk. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the commonly practised instrument to measure risk and is evaluated by analysing the negative/positive tail of the probability distributions of the returns (profit or loss). In modelling applications, least-squares estimation (LSE)-based linear regression models are often employed for modeling and analyzing correlated data. These linear models are optimal and perform relatively well under conditions such as errors following normal or approximately normal distributions, being free of large size outliers and satisfying the Gauss-Markov assumptions. However, often in practical situations, the LSE-based linear regression models fail to provide optimal results, for instance, in non-Gaussian situations especially when the errors follow distributions with fat tails and error terms possess a finite variance. This is the situation in case of risk analysis which involves analyzing tail distributions. Thus, applications of the LSE-based regression models may be questioned for appropriateness and may have limited applicability. We have carried out the risk analysis of Iranian crude oil price data based on the Lp-norm regression models and have noted that the LSE-based models do not always perform the best. We discuss results from the L1, L2 and L∞-norm based linear regression models. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): B.1.2, F.1.3, F.2.3, G.3, J.2.

Balancing push and pull information management within the supply chain

The aim of this paper is to explore the management of information in an aerospace manufacturer's supply chain by analysing supply chain disruption risks. The social network perspective will be used to examine the flows of information in the supply chain. The examination of information flows will also be explored in terms of push and pull information management. The supply chain risk management (SCRM) strategy is to assess the management of information that allows companies to gather information which will allow them to mitigate that risk before any disruption to the supply chain occurs. There is a shortage of models in analysing the supply chain risk associated with information flows, possibly due to the omission of appropriate modelling techniques in this area (Tang and Nurmaya, 2011). This paper uses an exploratory case study consisting of a multi method qualitative approach using fifteen interviews and four focus groups.

Development of risk based treatability and engineering measures for reducing exposure to lead contaminated media in the Miami inner city, Florida

A major consequence of contamination at the local level’s population as it relates to environmental health and environmental engineering is childhood lead poisoning. Environmental contamination is one of the pressing environmental concerns facing the world today. Current approaches often focus on large contaminated industrial size sites that are designated by regulatory agencies for site remediation. Prior to this study, there were no known published studies conducted at the local and smaller scale, such as neighborhoods, where often much of the contamination is present to remediate. An environmental health study of local lead-poisoning data in Liberty City, Little Haiti and eastern Little Havana in Miami-Dade County, Florida accounted for a disproportionately high number of the county’s reported childhood lead poisoning cases. An engineering system was developed and designed for a comprehensive risk management methodology that is distinctively applicable to the geographical and environmental conditions of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Furthermore, a scientific approach for interpreting environmental health concerns, while involving detailed environmental engineering control measures and methods for site remediation in contained media was developed for implementation. Test samples were obtained from residents and sites in those specific communities in Miami-Dade County, Florida (Gasana and Chamorro 2002). Currently lead does not have an Oral Assessment, Inhalation Assessment, and Oral Slope Factor; variables that are required to run a quantitative risk assessment. However, various institutional controls from federal agencies’ standards and regulation for contaminated lead in media yield adequate maximum concentration limits (MCLs). For this study an MCL of .0015 (mg/L) was used. A risk management approach concerning contaminated media involving lead demonstrates that the linkage of environmental health and environmental engineering can yield a feasible solution.

Managing Risk: Identifying and Controlling Losses and Assuming Risks From Perils

Financial survival in the hotel and restaurant business can depend upon a mastery of the basic principles of risk management. This article explains the series of steps leading to the successful implementation of the risk management techniques most appropriate for a given hotel or restaurant.

Sistematización in Urban Disaster Risk Reduction

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of sistematización’s use as a research tool in the operationalization of a “neighborhood approach” to the implementation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) in informal urban settlements. Design/methodology/approach – The first section highlights sistematización’s historical origins in Latin America in the fields of popular adult education, social work, and rural development. The second explains why sistematización was made a required component of project implementation. The third section addresses the approach to sistematización used. The final discusses how this experience both contributes to sistematización’s theoretical development and practical application as a methodology. Findings – The introduction of “sistematización” as a research tool facilitated real-time assessment of project implementation, providing timely information that positively influenced decision-making processes. This on-going feedback, collective learning, and open-exchange of know-how between NGOs and partner institutions allowed for the evaluation of existing practices and development of new ways of collaborating to address disaster risk in complex and dynamic urban environments. Practical implications – Sistematización transcends the narrow focus of traditional monitoring and evaluation on final results, emphasizing a comprehensive understanding of processes and contexts. Originality/value – Its use in the implementation of DRR initiatives in informal urban environments is particularly novel, highlighting the capacity of the methodology to be tailored to a variety of needs, in this case, bridging the gap between NGOs, local governments, and vulnerable communities, as well as between urban, development, and disaster risk management planning.

Towards a better understanding of flood-risk preparedness: A typological review

Preparedness has become a central component to contemporary approaches to flood risk management as there is a growing recognition that our reliance on engineered flood defences is unsustainable within the context of more extreme and unpredictable weather events. Whilst many researchers have focused their attention on exploring the key factors influencing flood-risk preparedness at the individual level, little consideration has been attributed to how we understand preparedness conceptually and practically in the first instance. This paper seeks to address this particular gap by identifying and analysing the diverse range of conceptualisations of preparedness and typologies of preparedness measures that exist within the literature in order to identify areas of convergence and divergence. In doing so, we demonstrate that a considerable degree of confusion remains in terms of how preparedness is defined, conceptualised and categorised. We conclude by reflecting on the implications this has from an academic perspective, but also in terms of the more practical aspects of flood risk management.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

A DST-based Approach for Construction Project Risk Analysis

Despite its huge potential in risk analysis, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) has not received enough attention in construction management. This paper presents a DST-based approach for structuring personal experience and professional judgment when assessing construction project risk. DST was innovatively used to tackle the problem of lacking sufficient information through enabling analysts to provide incomplete assessments. Risk cost is used as a common scale for measuring risk impact on the various project objectives, and the Evidential Reasoning algorithm is suggested as a novel alternative for aggregating individual assessments. A spreadsheet-based decision support system (DSS) was devised to facilitate the proposed approach. Four case studies were conducted to examine the approach's viability. Senior managers in four British construction companies tried the DSS and gave very promising feedback. The paper concludes that the proposed methodology may contribute to bridging the gap between theory and practice of construction risk assessment.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. The “Hands-off” scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production under drought conditions. The “Fire management” scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared with the “Fire suppression” scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a “boundary object” to facilitate collaboration and integration of different perceptions of fire in the region. This approach also has the potential to inform decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Twenty years of Hendra virus: laboratory submission trends and risk factors for infection in horses

Hendra virus (HeV) was first described in 1994 in an outbreak of acute and highly lethal disease in horses and humans in Australia. Equine cases continue to be diagnosed periodically, yet the predisposing factors for infection remain unclear. We undertook an analysis of equine submissions tested for HeV by the Queensland government veterinary reference laboratory over a 20-year period to identify and investigate any patterns. We found a marked increase in testing from July 2008, primarily reflecting a broadening of the HeV clinical case definition. Peaks in submissions for testing, and visitations to the Government HeV website, were associated with reported equine incidents. Significantly differing between-year HeV detection rates in north and south Queensland suggest a fundamental difference in risk exposure between the two regions. The statistical association between HeV detection and stockhorse type may suggest that husbandry is a more important risk determinant than breed per se. The detection of HeV in horses with neither neurological nor respiratory signs poses a risk management challenge for attending veterinarians and laboratory staff, reinforcing animal health authority recommendations that appropriate risk management strategies be employed for all sick horses, and by anyone handling sick horses or associated biological samples.