ASTRAL Score Predicts 5-Year Dependence and Mortality in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was externally validated showing remarkable consistency on 3-month outcome prognosis in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The present study aimed to evaluate ASTRAL score's prognostic accuracy to predict 5-year outcome. METHODS: All consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke registered in the Athens Stroke Registry between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2010, were included. Patients were excluded if admitted >24 hours after symptom onset or if any ASTRAL score component was missing. End points were 5-year unfavorable functional outcome, defined as modified Rankin Scale 3 to 6, and 5-year mortality. For each outcome, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated; also, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to investigate whether the ASTRAL score was an independent predictor of outcome. The Kaplan-Meier product limit method was used to estimate the probability of 5-year survival for each ASTRAL score quartile. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the score to predict 5-year unfavorable functional outcome was 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.91. In multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year unfavorable functional outcome (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the ASTRAL score's discriminatory power to predict 5-year mortality was 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.83). In multivariate analysis, the ASTRAL score was independently associated with 5-year mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.10). During the 5-year follow-up, the probability of survival was significantly lower with increasing ASTRAL score quartiles (log-rank test <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ASTRAL score reliably predicts 5-year functional outcome and mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

A steroidomic approach for biomarkers discovery in doping control.

Anti-doping authorities have high expectations of the athlete steroidal passport (ASP) for anabolic-androgenic steroids misuse detection. However, it is still limited to the monitoring of known well-established compounds and might greatly benefit from the discovery of new relevant biomarkers candidates. In this context, steroidomics opens the way to the untargeted simultaneous evaluation of a high number of compounds. Analytical platforms associating the performance of ultra-high pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) and the high mass-resolving power of quadrupole time-of-flight (QTOF) mass spectrometers are particularly adapted for such purpose. An untargeted steroidomic approach was proposed to analyse urine samples from a clinical trial for the discovery of relevant biomarkers of testosterone undecanoate oral intake. Automatic peak detection was performed and a filter of reference steroid metabolites mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) values was applied to the raw data to ensure the selection of a subset of steroid-related features. Chemometric tools were applied for the filtering and the analysis of UHPLC-QTOF-MS(E) data. Time kinetics could be assessed with N-way projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (N-PLS-DA) and a detection window was confirmed. Orthogonal projections to latent structures discriminant analysis (O-PLS-DA) classification models were evaluated in a second step to assess the predictive power of both known metabolites and unknown compounds. A shared and unique structure plot (SUS-plot) analysis was performed to select the most promising unknown candidates and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were computed to assess specificity criteria applied in routine doping control. This approach underlined the pertinence to monitor both glucuronide and sulphate steroid conjugates and include them in the athletes passport, while promising biomarkers were also highlighted.

A comprehensive analysis of human gene expression profiles identifies stromal immunoglobulin κ C as a compatible prognostic marker in human solid tumors.

PURPOSE: Although the central role of the immune system for tumor prognosis is generally accepted, a single robust marker is not yet available. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: On the basis of receiver operating characteristic analyses, robust markers were identified from a 60-gene B cell-derived metagene and analyzed in gene expression profiles of 1,810 breast cancer; 1,056 non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC); 513 colorectal; and 426 ovarian cancer patients. Protein and RNA levels were examined in paraffin-embedded tissue of 330 breast cancer patients. The cell types were identified with immunohistochemical costaining and confocal fluorescence microscopy. RESULTS: We identified immunoglobulin κ C (IGKC) which as a single marker is similarly predictive and prognostic as the entire B-cell metagene. IGKC was consistently associated with metastasis-free survival across different molecular subtypes in node-negative breast cancer (n = 965) and predicted response to anthracycline-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (n = 845; P < 0.001). In addition, IGKC gene expression was prognostic in NSCLC and colorectal cancer. No association was observed in ovarian cancer. IGKC protein expression was significantly associated with survival in paraffin-embedded tissues of 330 breast cancer patients. Tumor-infiltrating plasma cells were identified as the source of IGKC expression. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide IGKC as a novel diagnostic marker for risk stratification in human cancer and support concepts to exploit the humoral immune response for anticancer therapy. It could be validated in several independent cohorts and carried out similarly well in RNA from fresh frozen as well as from paraffin tissue and on protein level by immunostaining.

In situ RHAMM protein expression in acute myeloid leukemia blasts suggests poor overall survival.

Treatment options for patients with high-risk acute myeloid leukemia (AML) include high-dose chemotherapy regimens in combination with allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, which takes advantage of the donor T-cell-mediated graft-versus-leukemia effect. Together with beneficial responses observed in assays targeted at leukemia-associated antigens (LAA), this encouraged research on cancer vaccines and adoptive cellular therapies in AML. The receptor for hyaluronic acid-mediated motility (RHAMM, CD168) was identified as one of the most promising LAA in AML. Thus far, little is known about in situ expression in leukemic bone marrow blasts or the prognostic role of RHAMM and its interaction partners in AML. We immunohistochemically analyzed the expression and prognostic significance of RHAMM on trephine bone marrow biopsies from 71 AML cases that had been evaluated for cytogenetics and presence of FLT3-internal tandem duplications and NPM1 mutations. Fifty-five patients (77%) were treated with curative intent, while 16 (23%) received the most appropriate supportive care. Twenty of 71 (28%) AML cases were considered RHAMM+. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed significant discriminatory power considering overall survival (OS) in AML patients treated curatively for RHAMM (p = 0.015). Multivariable analysis revealed that expression of RHAMM in >5% of leukemic blasts identifies a subgroup of curatively treated cases with adverse OS independent of failures to achieve complete remission. RHAMM not only represents a promising LAA with specific T-cell responses in AML but, if assessed in situ on blasts, also a probable prognostic factor.

J-shaped association between serum glucose and functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Hyperglycemia after stroke is associated with larger infarct volume and poorer functional outcome. In an animal stroke model, the association between serum glucose and infarct volume is described by a U-shaped curve with a nadir ≈7 mmol/L. However, a similar curve in human studies was never reported. The objective of the present study is to investigate the association between serum glucose levels and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. METHODS: We analyzed 1446 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke. Serum glucose was measured on admission at the emergency department together with multiple other metabolic, clinical, and radiological parameters. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was recorded at 24 hours, and Rankin score was recorded at 3 and 12 months. The association between serum glucose and favorable outcome (Rankin score ≤2) was explored in univariate and multivariate analysis. The model was further analyzed in a robust regression model based on fractional polynomial (-2-2) functions. RESULTS: Serum glucose is independently correlated with functional outcome at 12 months (OR, 1.15; P=0.01). Other predictors of outcome include admission NIHSS score (OR, 1.18; P<0001), age (OR, 1.06; P<0.001), prestroke Rankin score (OR, 20.8; P=0.004), and leukoaraiosis (OR, 2.21; P=0.016). Using these factors in multiple logistic regression analysis, the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve is 0.869. The association between serum glucose and Rankin score at 12 months is described by a J-shaped curve with a nadir of 5 mmol/L. Glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome. A similar curve was generated for the association of glucose and 24-hour NIHSS score, for which glucose values between 4.0 and 7.2 mmol/L are associated with a NIHSS score <7. Discussion-Both hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia are dangerous in acute ischemic stroke as shown by a J-shaped association between serum glucose and 24-hour and 12-month outcome. Initial serum glucose values between 3.7 and 7.3 mmol/L are associated with favorable outcome.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Experimental and real-life case study validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers

Introduction: THC-COOH has been proposed as a criterion to help to distinguish between occasional from regular cannabis users. However, to date this indicator has not been adequately assessed under experimental and real-life conditions. Methods: We carried out a controlled administration study of smoked cannabis with a placebo. Twenty-three heavy smokers and 25 occasional smokers, between 18 and 30 years of age, participated in this study [Battistella G et al., PloS one. 2013;8(1):e52545]. We collected data from a second real case study performed with 146 traffic offenders' cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use were known. Cannabinoid levels were determined in whole blood using tandem mass spectrometry methods. Results: Significantly high differences in THC-COOH concentrations were found between the two groups when measured during the screening visit, prior to the smoking session, and throughout the day of the experiment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were determined and two threshold criteria were proposed in order to distinguish between these groups: a free THC-COOH concentration below 3 μg/L suggested an occasional consumption (≤ 1 joint/week) while a concentration higher than 40 μg/L corresponded to a heavy use (≥ 10 joints/month). These thresholds were successfully tested with the second real case study. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). These thresholds were also found to be consistent with previously published experimental data. Conclusion: We propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: If the whole blood THC-COOH concentration is higher than 40 μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THC-COOH concentration is lower than 3 μg/L. A THC-COOH level between these two thresholds can't be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Gait disturbances as specific predictive markers of the first fall onset in elderly people: a two-year prospective observational study

Falls are common in the elderly, and potentially result in injury and disability. Thus, preventing falls as soon as possible in older adults is a public health priority, yet there is no specific marker that is predictive of the first fall onset. We hypothesized that gait features should be the most relevant variables for predicting the first fall. Clinical baseline characteristics (e.g., gender, cognitive function) were assessed in 259 home-dwelling people aged 66 to 75 that had never fallen. Likewise, global kinetic behavior of gait was recorded from 22 variables in 1036 walking tests with an accelerometric gait analysis system. Afterward, monthly telephone monitoring reported the date of the first fall over 24 months. A principal components analysis was used to assess the relationship between gait variables and fall status in four groups: non-fallers, fallers from 0 to 6 months, fallers from 6 to 12 months and fallers from 12 to 24 months. The association of significant principal components (PC) with an increased risk of first fall was then evaluated using the area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (ROC). No effect of clinical confounding variables was shown as a function of groups. An eigenvalue decomposition of the correlation matrix identified a large statistical PC1 (termed "Global kinetics of gait pattern"), which accounted for 36.7% of total variance. Principal component loadings also revealed a PC2 (12.6% of total variance), related to the "Global gait regularity." Subsequent ANOVAs showed that only PC1 discriminated the fall status during the first 6 months, while PC2 discriminated the first fall onset between 6 and 12 months. After one year, any PC was associated with falls. These results were bolstered by the ROC analyses, showing good predictive models of the first fall during the first six months or from 6 to 12 months. Overall, these findings suggest that the performance of a standardized walking test at least once a year is essential for fall prevention.

Etude prospective sur l'utilité et valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG pour le diagnostic d'infection sur cathéters veineux centraux permanents

Contexte Lié au vieillissement et à la sédentarisation de la population, ainsi qu'à la chronicisation du cancer, l'emploi de cathéters veineux centraux permanents (CVCP) n'a cessé d'augmenter. La complication majeure de ces dispositifs, induisant de forts taux de morbi-mortalité, est l'infection. Actuellement, le diagnostic de ces infections reste surtout basé sur la clinique et les hémocultures. Lorsque le doute persiste, une ablation chirurgicale suivie de la mise en culture des prélèvements chirurgicaux et du cathéter permettent de poser le diagnostic. En clinique, après ces examens, nous constatons que seule la moitié des cathéters retirés étaient réellement infectés. Alors que la tomographie par émission de positons fusionnée à la tomographie (PET/CT) a montré de bons résultats dans la détection des infections chroniques, la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au fluorodeoxyglucose marqué au 18F (18F-FDG) pour les infections de CVCP n'a encore jamais été déterminée dans une étude prospective. Objectifs Au travers de cette étude prospective, ouverte et monocentrique, nous chercherons à connaître la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG dans la détection d'infections de CVCP et ainsi d'en déterminer son utilité. Nous essaierons aussi de déterminer la différence de valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG par rapport aux méthodes conventionnelles (paramètres cliniques et culture du liquide d'aspiration), afin de se déterminer sur l'éventuelle utilité diagnostique de celui-ci. Méthodes Cadre : Etude prospective d'au moins 20 patients, avec 2 groupes contrôles d'au moins 10 patients ayant chacun respectivement une faible et une forte probabilité d'infection, soit au moins 40 patients au total. Population : patients adultes avec CVCP devant être retiré. Cette étude prévoit un examen PET/CT au 18F-FDG effectué auprès de patients nécessitant une ablation de CVCP sur suspicion d'infection, sans confirmation possible par les moyens diagnostiques non chirurgicaux. Deux acquisitions seront réalisées 45 et 70 minutes après l'injection de 5,5MBq/Kg de 18F-FDG. Le groupe contrôle à faible probabilité d'infection, sera formé de patients bénéficiant de l'ablation définitive d'un CVCP pour fin de traitement durant le laps de temps de l'étude, et ayant bénéficié au préalable d'un examen PET/CT pour raison X. Après avoir retiré chirurgicalement le CVCP, nous utiliserons la culture microbiologique des deux extrémités du CVCP comme étalon d'or (gold standard) de l'infection. Le groupe contrôle à forte probabilité d'infection sera formé de patients nécessitant une ablation de CVCP sur infection de CVCP confirmée par les moyens diagnostiques non chirurgicaux (culture positive du liquide de l'aspiration). Lors de l'examen PET/CT, ces patients auront aussi deux acquisitions réalisées 45 et 70 minutes après l'injection de 5,5MBq/Kg de 18F-FDG. Les résultats de ces examens seront évalués par deux spécialistes en médecine nucléaire qui détermineront le niveau de suspicion de l'infection sur une échelle de Likert allant de I à V, sur la base du nombre de foyers, de la localisation du foyer, de l'intensité de la captation de 18F-FDG au voisinage du cathéter et du rapport tissu/arrière-plan. Par la suite, nous retirerons chirurgicalement le CVCP. Nous utiliserons la culture microbiologique du pus (si présent), des deux extrémités du CVCP ainsi que l'histologie des tissus formant un tunnel autour du cathéter comme étalon d'or de l'infection. Les résultats seront analysés à l'aide de courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) afin de déterminer la valeur diagnostique du PET/CT dans l'infection de CVCP. Les résultats des examens des patients avec suspicion clinique d'infection seront ensuite analysés séparément, afin de déterminer la différence de valeur diagnostique du PET/CT au 18F-FDG par rapport aux méthodes conventionnelles. Résultats escomptés Ce projet veut chercher à savoir si le PET/CT au 18F-FDG peut être un moyen diagnostique valide dans les infections de CVCP, s'avérer utile lorsque les autres moyens diagnostiques sont non conclusifs. Plus-value escomptée Actuellement, lors d'incertitude sur le diagnostic d'infection de CVCP, une opération chirurgicale est effectuée à titre préventif afin d'enlever le cathéter en cause, cependant seulement la moitié de ces cathéters sont réellement infectés en pratique. Le PET/CT au 18F-FDG, grâce à sa sensibilité élevée et probablement une bonne valeur prédictive négative, pourrait éviter à une partie des patients un retrait inutile du cathéter, diminuant ainsi les risques chirurgicaux et les coûts liés à de telles opérations, tout en préservant le capital d'accès vasculaire futur.

Caracterização de lesões intersticiais de pulmão em radiograma de tórax utilizando análise local de textura

OBJETIVO: Caracterizar lesões intersticiais em radiografias frontais de tórax, com base na análise de atributos estatísticos de textura, os quais permitem detectar sinais de anormalidades com natureza difusa. MATERIAIS E MÉTODOS: O esquema começa com a segmentação semi-automática dos campos pulmonares, sendo o contorno externo marcado manualmente, com posterior divisão automática de cada pulmão em seis regiões. O banco de imagens utilizado neste trabalho é composto por 482 regiões obtidas de exames contendo lesões e 324 regiões obtidas de exames normais. Os atributos de textura são extraídos automaticamente de cada uma dessas regiões e uma seleção das melhores combinações de atributos é feita através da distância Jeffries-Matusita. A classificação das regiões em normal ou suspeita é feita pela comparação com os k vizinhos mais próximos e o treinamento do classificador é baseado na técnica de treino e teste "half-half" e correlação cruzada. RESULTADOS: Os resultados obtidos foram analisados através do valor da área sob a curva ROC ("receiver operating characteristic"), a qual indica um sistema perfeito para uma área igual a 1. Os resultados forneceram uma área sob a curva ROC (A Z) igual a 0,887, com valores de sensibilidade igual a 0,804 e especificidade igual a 0,793. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados indicam que o sistema de caracterização baseado em atributos de textura possui bom potencial para o auxílio ao diagnóstico de lesões intersticiais de pulmão.

Importance of early weight changes to predict long-term weight gain during psychotropic drug treatment.

BACKGROUND: Psychotropic drugs can induce substantial weight gain, particularly during the first 6 months of treatment. The authors aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early weight gain after the introduction of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs on long-term weight gain. METHOD: Data were obtained from a 1-year longitudinal study ongoing since 2007 including 351 psychiatric (ICD-10) patients, with metabolic parameters monitored (baseline and/or 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and with compliance ascertained. International Diabetes Federation and World Health Organization definitions were used to define metabolic syndrome and obesity, respectively. RESULTS: Prevalences of metabolic syndrome and obesity were 22% and 17%, respectively, at baseline and 32% and 24% after 1 year. Receiver operating characteristic analyses indicated that an early weight gain > 5% after a period of 1 month is the best predictor for important long-term weight gain (≥ 15% after 3 months: sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 88%; ≥ 20% after 12 months: sensitivity, 47%; specificity, 89%). This analysis identified most patients (97% for 3 months, 93% for 12 months) who had weight gain ≤ 5% after 1 month as continuing to have a moderate weight gain after 3 and 12 months. Its predictive power was confirmed by fitting a longitudinal multivariate model (difference between groups in 1 year of 6.4% weight increase as compared to baseline, P = .0001). CONCLUSION: Following prescription of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs, a 5% threshold for weight gain after 1 month should raise clinician concerns about weight-controlling strategies.

Espessura do músculo adutor do polegar: um método rápido e confiável na avaliação nutricional de pacientes cirúrgicos

OBJETIVO: Determinar se a medida da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar é confiável para avaliação nutricional de pacientes cirúrgicos e se correlaciona bem com outros parâmetros antropométricos, bioquímicos e clínicos. MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, com avaliação de 87 pacientes candidatos à procedimento cirúrgico de grande porte no trato gastrointestinal. Eles foram submetidos à avaliação nutricional através da avaliação subjetiva global, antropometria (circunferência do braço, prega cutânea triciptal, e circunferência muscular do braço), albumina sérica, linfocitometria e pela medida da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar em ambas as mãos. RESULTADOS: A média da espessura da mão dominante (direita) foi de 12,64 ± 3,19 mm e da mão não dominante 12,23 ± 2,9 mm. Para desnutrição, a sensibilidade da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar direita foi de 72,37% e da esquerda de 77,33% para os pontos de cortes encontrados com a curva Receiver Operating Characteristic (13,4 e 13,1 mm respectivamente). Para ambas as mãos a especificidade foi de 100%. Encontrou-se correlação significativa (p<0,01) da espessura do músculo adutor do polegar com todas as outras técnicas antropométricas de avaliação nutricional. Os seus valores médios nos pacientes eutróficos segundo a avaliação subjetiva global foram significativamente maiores (P<0.001) que dos desnutridos leves, e estes também maiores (P<0,05) que os desnutridos graves (avaliação subjetiva global-C). CONCLUSÃO: a espessura do músculo adutor do polegar é um método de fácil execução, baixo custo, confiável e transmite segurança na avaliação do estado nutricional, podendo ser usado na prática clínica em pacientes cirúrgicos.

Emprego do escore MELD para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante hepático

OBJETIVO: Analisar a acurácia geral do escore MELD pré-operatório para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante hepático (TH) e explorar fatores preditivos da sobrevivência de médio prazo (24 meses). MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal incluindo pacientes transplantados pelo Serviço de Cirurgia Geral e Transplante Hepático do Hospital Universitário Oswaldo Cruz, Universidade de Pernambuco, entre 15 de julho de 2003 e 14 de julho de 2009. Utilizou-se análise da área sob curva ROC (receiver operating characteristic) como medida-resumo do desempenho do escore MELD e se exploraram fatores preditivos da sobrevivência de médio prazo utilizando análise uni e multivariada. RESULTADOS: A sobrevivência cumulativa de três, seis, 12 e 24 meses dos 208 pacientes estudados foi 85,1%, 79,3%, 74,5% e 71,1%, respectivamente. O escore MELD pré-operatório apresentou baixo poder discriminatório para a predição da sobrevivência pós-TH. Por análise univariada, identificaram-se a transfusão intraoperatória de hemácias (p<0,001) e plaquetas (p=0,004) e o tipo de anastomose venosa hepatocaval (p=0,008) como significativamente relacionados à sobrevivência de médio prazo dos pacientes estudados. No entanto, por análise multivariada, observou-se que apenas a transfusão de hemácias foi um fator preditivo independente deste desfecho. CONCLUSÃO: O escore MELD apresentou baixa acurácia geral para a predição da sobrevivência pós-transplante dos pacientes estudados, entre os quais, apenas a transfusão intraoperatória de hemácias foi identificada como fator preditivo independente da sobrevivência de médio prazo após o TH.