Do migrants' remittances decline over time? Evidence from Tongans and Western Samoans in Australia

There is concern that Pacific Island economies dependent on remittances of migrants will endure foreign exchange shortages and falling living standards as remittance levels fall because of lower migration rates and the belief that migrants' willingness to remit declines over time. The empirical validity of the remittance-decay hypothesis has never been tested. From survey data on Tongan and Western Samoan migrants in Sydney, this paper estimates remittance functions using multivariate regression analysis. It is found that the remittance-decay hypothesis has no empirical validity, and migrants are motivated by factors other than altruistic family support, including asset accumulation and investment back home.

Experimental control of single-mode laser chaos by using continuous, time-delayed feedback

Control of chaos in the single-mode optically pumped far-infrared (NH3)-N-15 laser is experimentally demonstrated using continuous time-delay control. Both the Lorenz spiral chaos and the detuned period-doubling chaos exhibited by the laser have been controlled. While the laser is in the Lorenz spiral chaos regime the chaos has been controlled both such that the laser output is cw, with corrections of only a fraction of a percent necessary to keep it there, and to period one. The laser has also been controlled while in the period-doubling chaos regime, to both the period-one and -two states.

Dissociation between skin conductance orienting and secondary task reaction time: Time course with a visual discrimination task

A dissociation between two putative measures of resource allocation skin conductance responding, and secondary task reaction time (RT), has been observed during auditory discrimination tasks. Four experiments investigated the time course of the dissociation effect with a visual discrimination task. participants were presented with circles and ellipses and instructed to count the number of longer-than-usual presentations of one shape (task-relevant) and to ignore presentations of the other shape (task-irrelevant). Concurrent with this task, participants made a speeded motor response to an auditory probe. Experiment 1 showed that skin conductance responses were larger during task-relevant stimuli than during task-irrelevant stimuli, whereas RT to probes presented at 150 ms following shape onset was slower during task-irrelevant stimuli. Experiments 2 to 4 found slower RT during task-irrelevant stimuli at probes presented at 300 ms before shape onset until 150 ms following shape onset. At probes presented 3,000 and 4,000 ms following shape onset probe RT was slower during task-relevant stimuli. The similarities between the observed time course and the so-called psychological refractory period (PRF) effect are discussed.

Temperature and sowing date affect the linear increase of sunflower harvest index

The linearity of daily linear harvest index (HI) increase can provide a simple means to predict grain growth and yield in field crops. However, the stability of the rate of increase across genotypes and environments is uncertain. Data from three field experiments were collated to investigate the phase of linear HI increase of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L,) across environments by changing genotypes, sowing time, N level, and solar irradiation level. Linear increase in HI was similar among different genotypes, N levels, and radiation treatments (mean 0.0125 d(-1)). but significant differences occurred between sowings, The linear increase in HI was not stable at very low temperatures (down to 9 degrees C) during grain filling, due to possible limitations to biomass accumulation and translocation (mean 0.0091 d(-1)). Using the linear increase in HI to predict grain yield requires predictions of the duration from anthesis to the onset of linear HI increase (lag phase) and the cessation of linear RT increase. These studies showed that the lag phase differed, and the linear HI increase ceased when 91% of the anthesis to physiological maturity period had been completed.

In vivo dynamics of axon pathfinding in the Drosophila CNS: A time-lapse study of an identified motoneuron

We developed a system for time-lapse observation of identified neurons in the central nervous system (CNS) of the Drosophila embryo. Using this system, we characterize the dynamics of filopodia and axon growth of the motorneuron RP2 as it navigates anteriorly through the CNS and then laterally along the intersegmental nerve (ISN) into the periphery. We find that both axonal extension and turning occur primarily through the process of filopodial dilation. In addition, we used the GAL4-UAS system to express the fusion protein Tau-GFP in a subset of neurons, allowing us to correlate RP2's patterns of growth with a subset of axons in its environment. In particular, we show that RP2's sharp lateral turn is coincident with the nascent ISN. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Lepocreadiidae (Digenea) of Australian coastal fishes: new species of Opechona Looss, 1907, Lepotrema Ozaki, 1932 and Bianium Stunkard, 1930 and comments on other species reported for the first time or poorly known in Australian waters

Opechona austrobacillaris n, sp. is described from Pomatomus saltatrix from marine sites off Western Australia and New South Wales, Australia. It differs from O. bacillaris in its elongate outline, small ventral sucker, longer pseudoesophagus (relative to the oesophagus), relatively shorter ventral sucker to ovary distance and the relatively longer post-testicular region. Lepotrema monile n. sp. is described from Pomacentrus wardi from Heron Island, Queensland. It differs from its congeners in the sphincter around the distal metraterm and the more-or-less oval ovary. Bianium spongiosum n. sp, is described from Ostracion cubicus from Lizard Island, Queensland. It differs from its congeners in lacking lateral flaps in the forebody, but in having large, internal spongiform patches in the lateral forebody. The following species are redescribed from Australian sites: Lepocreadium oyabitcha from Abudefduf whitleyi, Lizard Island; Clavogalea trachinoti from Trachinotus botla, Heron Island and T. coppingeri, New South Wales, Stradbroke Island, Queensland and Heron Island; Myzoxenus insolens from Notolabrus parilus, Western Australia; Bulbocirrus aulostomi from Aulostomus chinensis, Heron Island; Lepocreadioides orientalis [new synonyms: Bicaudum interruptum Bilqees, 1973; Lepocreadioides interruptum (Bilqees, 1973) Madhavi, Narasimhulu & Shameem, 1986; Lepocreadioides discum Wang, 1986; Lepocreadioides sp. of Karyakarte & Yadav (1976)] from Cynoglossus bilineata, Moreton Bay, Queensland; Hypocreadium patellare from Sufflamen chrysopterus, Heron Island; Echeneidocoelium indicum from Echeneis naucrates, Heron Island; Multitestis pyriformis from Epinephelus cyanopodus, Heron Island; Pseudopisthogonoporus vitellosus from Naso brevirostris, Heron Island; and Bianium hispidum from Torquigener whitleyi and T. pleurogramma, southern Queensland. Only M. solens and M. pyriformis have been reported from Australian waters before; both are new host records.

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

Search for time variation of the fine structure constant

An order of magnitude sensitivity gain is described for using quasar spectra to investigate possible time or space variation in the fine structure constant alpha. Applied to a sample of 30 absorption systems, spanning redshifts 0.5 < z < 1.6, we derive limits on variations in alpha over a wide range of epochs. For the whole sample, Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). This deviation is dominated by measurements at z > 1, where Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.9 +/- 0.5) x 10(-5). For z < 1, Delta alpha/alpha = (-0.2 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). While this is consistent with a time-varying alpha, further work is required to explore possible systematic errors in the data, although careful searches have so far revealed none.

An evaluation of the time dependence of the anisotropy of the water diffusion tensor in acute human ischemia

We have performed MRI examinations to determine the water diffusion tensor in the brain of six patients who were admitted to the hospital within 12 h after the onset of cerebral ischemic symptoms. The examinations have been carried out immediately after admission, and thereafter at varying intervals up to 90 days post admission. Maps of the trace of the diffusion tensor, the fractional anisotropy and the lattice index, as well as maps of cerebral blood perfusion parameters, were generated to quantitatively assess the character of the water diffusion tensor in the infarcted area. In patients with significant perfusion deficits and substantial lesion volume changes, four of six cases, our measurements show a monotonic and significant decrease in the diffusion anisotropy within the ischemic lesion as a function of time. We propose that retrospective analysis of this quantity, in combination with brain tissue segmentation and cerebral perfusion maps, may be used in future studies to assess the severity of the ischemic event. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weathering of hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments: testing the effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills

This field study was a combined chemical and biological investigation of the relative effects of using dispersants to treat oil spills impacting mangrove habitats. The aim of the chemistry was to determine whether dispersant affected the short- or long-term composition of a medium range crude oil (Gippsland) stranded in a tropical mangrove environment in Queensland, Australia. Sediment cores from three replicate plots of each treatment (oil only and oil plus dispersant) were analyzed for total hydrocarbons and for individual molecular markers (alkanes, aromatics, triterpanes, and steranes). Sediments were collected at 2 days, then 1, 7, 13 and 22 months post-spill. Over this time, oil in the six treated plots decreased exponentially from 36.6 +/- 16.5 to 1.2 +/- 0.8 mg/g dry wt. There was no statistical difference in initial oil concentrations, penetration of oil to depth, or in the rates of oil dissipation between oiled or dispersed oil plots. At 13 months, alkanes were >50% degraded, aromatics were similar to 30% degraded based upon ratios of labile to resistant markers. However, there was no change in the triterpane or sterane biomarker signatures of the retained oil. This is of general forensic interest for pollution events. The predominant removal processes were evaporation (less than or equal to 27%) and dissolution (greater than or equal to 56%), with a lag-phase of 1 month before the start of significant microbial degradation (less than or equal to 7%). The most resistant fraction of the oil that remained after 7 months (the higher molecular weight hydrocarbons) correlated with the initial total organic carbon content of the soil. Removal rate in the Queensland mangroves was significantly faster than that observed in the Caribbean and was related to tidal flushing. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is there change over time in the season-of-birth effect for schizophrenia? Data from the southern hemisphere

The aim of this paper is to examine distributions of schizophrenia and general population births over time in order to determine whether (a) the pattern has changed over time, (b) any pattern was similar for both males and females, and (c) whether there is any indication that there is any relationship between the changes in pattern between schizophrenia and general population births. Birth month and year for 7807 individuals with ICD8/9 schizophrenia were gained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System for 1914-1975. Monthly births for the general population in Queensland for the same period were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. For each decade we obtained two comparisons, (1) between two 'seasons' (summer-autumn/winter-spring), and (2) between the third (coldest) quarter and the remaining quarters. Based on expected contrasts from general population proportions, odds ratios and their confidence intervals were used to analyse these comparisons for all subjects, and for males and females separately. The seasonality found in our previous studies was again evident (OR 1.09; 95% CI= 1.01-1.17). However there was no significant change in its pattern over time either for the total group or for males and females separately. When the general population births alone were examined using the same contrasts, seasonality was also observed, but here there were fluctuations over time. These results suggest that exposures linked to changes in general population births over time should be examined in disorders such as schizophrenia which demonstrate seasonality in births. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.