Stefan problems for melting nanoscaled particles

Under certain conditions, the mathematical models governing the melting of nano-sized particles predict unphysical results, which suggests these models are incomplete. This thesis studies the addition of different physical effects to these models, using analytic and numerical techniques to obtain realistic and meaningful results. In particular, the mathematical "blow-up" of solutions to ill-posed Stefan problems is examined, and the regularisation of this blow-up via kinetic undercooling. Other effects such as surface tension, density change and size-dependent latent heat of fusion are also analysed.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to urban outdoor air pollution in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To quantify the mortality burden attributed to urban outdoor air pollution in South Africa in 2000. Design The study followed comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology developed by the World Heath Organization (WHO). In most urban areas, annual mean concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters less than 10 μum (PM10) from monitoring network data and PM with diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) derived using a ratio method were weighted according to population size. PM10 and PM2.5 data from air-quality assessment studies in areas not covered by the network were also included. Population-attributable fractions calculated using risk coefficients presented in the WHO study were weighted by the proportion of the total population (33%) in urban environments, and applied to revised estimates of deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) for South Africa in 2000. Setting South Africa. Subjects Children under 5 years and adults 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and YLLs from lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease in adults (30 years and older), and from acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in children aged 0 - 4 years. Results Outdoor air pollution in urban areas in South Africa was estimated to cause 3.7% of the national mortality from cardiopulmonary disease and 5.1% of mortality attributable to cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung in adults aged 30 years and older, and 1.1% of mortality from ARIs in children under 5 years of age. This amounts to 4 637 or 0.9% (95% uncertainty interval 0.3 - 1.5%) of all deaths and about 42 000 YLLs, or 0.4% (95% uncertainty interval 0.1 - 0.7%) of all YLLs in persons in South Africa in 2000. Conclusion Urban air pollution has under-recognised public health impacts in South Africa. Fossil fuel combustion emissions and traffic-related air pollution remain key targets for public health in South Africa.

Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Sizable photocurrent and emission from solid state devices based on CdS nanoparticles

CdS nanoparticles exhibit size dependent optical and electrical properties. We report here the photocurrent and I-V characteristic studies of CdS nanoparticle devices. A sizable short circuit photocurrent was observed in the detection range governed by the size of the clusters. We speculate on the mechanisms leading to the photocurrent and emission in these nanometer scale systems.

Species-area and species-individual relationships for tropical trees: A comparison of three 50-ha plots

1 Species-accumulation curves for woody plants were calculated in three tropical forests, based on fully mapped 50-ha plots in wet, old-growth forest in Peninsular Malaysia, in moist, old-growth forest in central Panama, and in dry, previously logged forest in southern India. A total of 610 000 stems were identified to species and mapped to < Im accuracy. Mean species number and stem number were calculated in quadrats as small as 5 m x 5 m to as large as 1000 m x 500 m, for a variety of stem sizes above 10 mm in diameter. Species-area curves were generated by plotting species number as a function of quadrat size; species-individual curves were generated from the same data, but using stem number as the independent variable rather than area. 2 Species-area curves had different forms for stems of different diameters, but species-individual curves were nearly independent of diameter class. With < 10(4) stems, species-individual curves were concave downward on log-log plots, with curves from different forests diverging, but beyond about 104 stems, the log-log curves became nearly linear, with all three sites having a similar slope. This indicates an asymptotic difference in richness between forests: the Malaysian site had 2.7 times as many species as Panama, which in turn was 3.3 times as rich as India. 3 Other details of the species-accumulation relationship were remarkably similar between the three sites. Rectangular quadrats had 5-27% more species than square quadrats of the same area, with longer and narrower quadrats increasingly diverse. Random samples of stems drawn from the entire 50 ha had 10-30% more species than square quadrats with the same number of stems. At both Pasoh and BCI, but not Mudumalai. species richness was slightly higher among intermediate-sized stems (50-100mm in diameter) than in either smaller or larger sizes, These patterns reflect aggregated distributions of individual species, plus weak density-dependent forces that tend to smooth the species abundance distribution and 'loosen' aggregations as stems grow. 4 The results provide support for the view that within each tree community, many species have their abundance and distribution guided more by random drift than deterministic interactions. The drift model predicts that the species-accumulation curve will have a declining slope on a log-log plot, reaching a slope of O.1 in about 50 ha. No other model of community structure can make such a precise prediction. 5 The results demonstrate that diversity studies based on different stem diameters can be compared by sampling identical numbers of stems. Moreover, they indicate that stem counts < 1000 in tropical forests will underestimate the percentage difference in species richness between two diverse sites. Fortunately, standard diversity indices (Fisher's sc, Shannon-Wiener) captured diversity differences in small stem samples more effectively than raw species richness, but both were sample size dependent. Two nonparametric richness estimators (Chao. jackknife) performed poorly, greatly underestimating true species richness.

How does contrasting dependence of impurity-atom diffusivity on the density of host disordered medium arise?

We report results of molecular dynamics investigations into neutral impurity diffusing within an amorphous solid as a function of the size of the diffusant and density of the host amorphous matrix. We find that self diffusivity exhibits an anomalous maximum as a function of the size of the impurity species. An analysis of properties of the impurity atom with maximum diffusivity shows that it is associated with lower mean square force, reduced backscattering of velocity autocorrelation function, near-exponential decay of the intermediate scattering function (as compared to stretched-exponential decay for other sizes of the impurity species) and lower activation energy. These results demonstrate the existence of size-dependent diffusivity maximum in disordered solids. Further, we show that the diffusivity maximum is observed at lower impurity diameters with increase in density. This is explained in terms of the Levitation parameter and the void structure of the amorphous solid. We demonstrate that these results imply contrasting dependence of self diffusivity (D) on the density of the amorphous matrix, p. D increases with p for small sizes of the impurity but shows an increase followed by a decrease for intermediate sizes of the impurity atom. For large sizes of the impurity atom, D decreases with increase in p. These contrasting dependence arises naturally from the existence of Levitation Effect.

The fishery and reproductive biology of Barking crayfish, Linuparus trigonus (Von Siebold, 1824) along Queenslands east coast

This paper describes the fishery and reproductive biology for Linuparus trigonus obtained from trawl fishermen operating off Queensland’s east coast, Australia. The smallest mature female lobster measured 59.8 mm CL, however, 50% maturity was reached between 80 and 85 mm CL. Brood fecundity (BF) was size dependent and ranged between 19,287 and 100,671 eggs in 32 females from 59.8 to 104.3 mm CL. The relationship was best described by the power equation BF = 0.1107*CL to the power of 2.9241 (r to the power of 2 = 0:74). Egg size ranged from 0.96 to 1.12 mm in diameter (mean = 1:02 (+or-) 0:01 mm). Egg weight and size were independent of lobster size. Length frequencies displayed multi-modal distributions.The percentage of female to male lobsters was relatively stable for small size classes (30 to 70 mm CL; 50.0 to 63.6% females), but female proportions rose markedly between 75 and 90 mm (72.2 to 85.4%) suggesting that at the onset of sexual maturity female growth rates are reduced. In size classes greater than 95 mm, males were numerically dominant. A description of the L. trigonus fishery in Queensland is also detailed.

Phenology of Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae)in stone fruit orchards as determined by pheromone trapping: Implications for prediction of crop damage

Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

Seasonal incidence of Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae) and its parasitoids on Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers. in south-eastern Queensland, Australia

To quantify the role of Johnson grass, Sorghum halepense, in the population dynamics of the sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola, patterns of flowering of Johnson grass and infestation by sorghum midge were studied in two different climatic environments in the Lockyer Valley and on the Darling Downs in south-eastern Queensland for 3 years. Parasitism levels of S. sorghicola were also recorded. In the Lockyer Valley, Johnson grass panicles were produced throughout the year but on the Darling Downs none were produced between June and September. In both areas, most panicle production occurred between November and March and infestation by S. sorghicola was the greatest during this period. The parasitism levels were between 20% and 50%. After emergence from winter diapause, one to two generations of S. sorghicola developed on S. halepense before commercial grain sorghum crops were available for infestation. Parasitoids recorded were: Aprostocetus diplosidis, Eupelmus australiensis and two species of Tetrastichus. Relationships between sorghum midge population growth rate and various environmental and population variables were investigated. Population size had a significant negative effect (P < 0.0001) on population growth rate. Mortality due to parasitism showed a significant positive density response (P < 0.0001). Temperature, rainfall, open pan evaporation, degree-days and host availability showed no significant effect on population growth rate. Given the phenology of sorghum production in south-eastern Queensland, Johnson grass provides an important bridging host, sustaining one to two generations of sorghum midge. Critical studies relating population change and build-up in sorghum to sorghum midge populations in Johnson grass are yet to be performed.

Recovery of the red-finned blue-eye: An endangered fish from springs of the Great Artesian Basin

The red-finned blue-eye (Scaturiginichthys vermeilipinnis) is endemic to a single complex of springs emanating from the Great Artesian Basin, Australia. The species has been recorded as naturally occurring in eight separate very shallow (generally <20 mm) springs, with a combined wetland area of ~0.3 ha. Since its discovery in 1990, five red-finned blue-eye (RFBE) populations have been lost and subsequent colonisation has occurred in two spring wetlands. Current population size is estimated at <3000 individuals. Artesian bores have reduced aquifer pressure, standing water levels and spring-flows in the district. There is evidence of spatial separation within the spring pools where RFBE and the introduced fish gambusia (Gambusia holbrooki) co-occur, although both species are forced together when seasonal extremes affect spring size and water temperature. Gambusia was present in four of the five springs where RFBE populations have been lost. Four out of the five remaining subpopulations of RFBE are Gambusia free. Circumstantial evidence suggests that gambusia is a major threat to red-finned blue-eyes. The impact of Gambusia is probably exacerbated by domestic stock (cattle and sheep), feral goats and pigs that utilise the springs and can negatively affect water quality and flow patterns. Three attempts to translocate RFBE to apparently suitable springs elsewhere within the complex have failed. Opportunities to mitigate threats are discussed, along with directions for future research to improve management of this extremely threatened fish and habitat.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Temporal genetic structure patterns in tropical maize populations under reciprocal recurrent selection.

In order to investigate the effect of long term recurrent selection on the pattern of gene diversity, thirty randomly-selected individuals from the progenitors (p) and four selection cycles (C0, C3, C6 and C11) were sampled for DNA analysis from the tropical maize (Zea mays L.) breeding populations, Atherton 1 (AT1) and Atherton 2 (AT2). Fifteen polymorphic Simple Sequence Repeat markers amplified a total of 284 and 257 alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations, respectively. Reductions in the number of alleles were observed at advanced selection cycles. About 11 and 12% of the alleles in AT1 and AT2 populations respectively, were near to fixation. However, a higher number of alleles (37% in AT1 and 33% in AT2) were close to extinction. Fisher's exact test and analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed significant population differentiations. Gene diversity estimates and AMOVA revealed increased genetic differentiations at the expense of loss of heterozygosity. Population differentiations were mainly due to fixation of complementary alleles at a locus in the two breeding populations. The estimates of effective population at an advanced selection cycle were close to the population size predicted by the breeding method.

Musculoskeletal disorders and psychosocial factors at work : Effects of a participatory ergonomics intervention in a cluster randomized controlled trial

This study examined the efficacy of a participatory ergonomics intervention in preventing musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and changing unsatisfactory psychosocial working conditions among municipal kitchen workers. The occurrence of multiple-site musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and associations between MSP and psychosocial factors at work over time were studied secondarily. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted during 2002-2005 in 119 municipal kitchens with 504 workers. The kitchens were randomized to an intervention (n = 59) and control (n = 60) group. The intervention lasted 11 to 14 months. The workers identified strenuous work tasks and sought solutions for decreasing physical and mental workload. The main outcomes were the occurrence of and trouble caused by musculoskeletal pain in seven anatomical sites, local musculoskeletal fatigue after work, and musculoskeletal sick leaves. Psychosocial factors at work (job control, skill discretion, co-worker relationships, supervisor support, mental strenuousness of work, hurry, job satisfaction) and mental stress were studied as intermediate outcomes of the intervention. Questionnaire data were collected at three months intervals during the intervention and the one-year post-intervention follow-up. Response rates varied between 92 % and 99 %. In total, 402 ergonomic changes were implemented. In the control group, 80 changes were spontaneously implemented within normal activity. The intervention did not reduce perceived physical workload and no systematic differences in any health outcomes were found between the intervention and control groups during the intervention or during the one-year follow-up. The results suggest that the intervention as studied in the present trial was not more effective in reducing perceived physical workload or preventing MSDs compared with no such intervention. Little previous evidence of the effectiveness of ergonomics interventions in preventing MSDs exists. The effects on psychosocial factors at work were adverse, especially in the two of the participating cities where re-organization of foodservices timed simultaneously with the intervention. If organizational reforms at workplace are expected to occur, the execution of other workplace interventions at the same time should be avoided. The co-occurrence of musculoskeletal pain at several sites is observed to be more common than pain at single anatomical sites. However, the risk factors of MSP are largely unknown. This study showed that at baseline, 73 % of the women reported pain in at least two, 36 % in four or more, and 10 % in six to seven sites. The seven pain symptoms occurred in over 80 different combinations. When co-occurrence of pain was studied in three larger anatomical areas (neck/low back, upper limbs, lower limbs), concurrent pain in all three areas was the most common combination (36 %). The 3-month prevalence of MSP (≥ 3 of seven sites) varied between 50 % and 61 % during the two-year follow-up period. Psychosocial factors at work and mental stress were strong predictors for MSP over time and, vice versa, MSP predicted psychosocial factors at work and mental stress. The reciprocality of the relationships implies either two mutually dependent processes in time, or some shared common underlying factor(s).