Climate Change and Knowledge Communities

19 p.

The Economic Impacts of Biodiversity Policy for Improving the Climate Regulating Services Provided by EU Natura 2000 Habitats

22 p.

Climate Change and Its Socioeconomic Importance

25 p.

River Lune processes. A study of change in the River Lune catchment and recommendations for flood defence management

There has been a perception of increasing river channel instability in north west rivers and the River Lune in particular in recent decades. This has been attributed variously to: (a) long-term trends in precipitation-runoff regime; (b) changes in land-use such as moor-draining and sub-soil draining such that the river is more flashy than previously, and (c) a change in the magnitude-frequency relationships of flow such that high discharges are occurring with increased frequency. Resources are available in the form of rainfall and runoff records, archived information on channel planform, land use statistics and local engineering experience which have not been jointly and fully evaluated. Effective interpretation of the nature of channel change through time with respect to this resource may enhance the Environment Agency's ability to manage the river channel efficiently in the future and will aid the development of effective policy. The results of this study will for the first time, provide robust guidance with respect to long-term channel adjustment and the appropriate management options. The research provides suggestions as to how policy might be developed taking account of other pertinent factors.

Coarse and stillwater trout fisheries. Paper in evidence to the review of fisheries policy and legislation

This paper highlights the social and economic importance of coarse and stillwater trout fisheries and explains the UK Environment Agency's aim, its policies and processes, and its powers for managing and regulating these fisheries, concluding with reasoned proposals for change.

Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further complicated by the prospect of dealing with a confluence of hazards in comparison with those in other ecosystems. Against this backdrop Worldfish and the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) collaborated to implement the cross-country study “Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia, Philippines, and Vietnam”. As its title suggests the study covered selected sites in Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. Employing a gamut of interdisciplinary methodologies -- ranging from community-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and focus group discussions (FGDs) to regression techniques -- the study documented the impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities. These were typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The team also analyzed planned adaptation options suited to implementation by communities and local governments, augmenting autonomous responses of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards.

Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Dialogue to address the roots of resource competition: Lessons for policy and practice

Conflict management is an intrinsic element of natural resource management, and becomes increasingly important amid growing pressure on natural resources from local uses, as well as from external drivers such as climate change and international investment. If policymakers and practitioners aim to truly improve livelihood resilience and reduce vulnerabilities of poor rural households, issues of resource competition and conflict management cannot be ignored. This synthesis report summarizes outcomes and lessons from three ecoregions: Lake Victoria, with a focus on Uganda; Lake Kariba, with a focus on Zambia; and Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia. Partners used a common approach to stakeholder engagement and action research that we call “Collaborating for Resilience”. In each region, partners assisted local stakeholders in developing a shared understanding of risks and opportunities, weighing alternative actions, developing action plans, and evaluating and learning from the outcomes. These experiences demonstrate that investing in capacities for conflict management is practical and can contribute to broader improvements in resource governance.

The role for low carbon electrification technologies in poverty reduction and climate change strategies: A focus on renewable energy mini-grids with case studies in Nepal, Peru and Kenya

As a potential poverty reduction and climate change strategy, this paper considers the advantages and disadvantages of using renewable energy technologies for rural electrification in developing countries. Although each case must be considered independently, given a reliable fuel source, renewable energy mini-grids powered by biomass gasifiers or micro-hydro plants appear to be the favoured option due to their lower levelised costs, provision of AC power, potential to provide a 24. h service and ability to host larger capacity systems that can power a wide range of electricity uses. Sustainability indicators are applied to three case studies in order to explore the extent to which sustainable welfare benefits can be created by renewable energy mini-grids. Policy work should focus on raising awareness about renewable energy mini-grids, improving institutional, technical and regulatory frameworks and developing innovative financing mechanisms to encourage private sector investments. Establishing joint technology and community engagement training centres should also be encouraged. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

Pretty good governance: balancing policy drivers and stakeholder interests in developing fisheries ecosystem plans

The central research question that this thesis addresses is whether there is a significant gap between fishery stakeholder values and the principles and policy goals implicit in an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). The implications of such a gap for fisheries governance are explored. Furthermore an assessment is made of what may be practically achievable in the implementation of an EAFM in fisheries in general and in a case study fishery in particular. The research was mainly focused on a particular case study, the Celtic Sea Herring fishery and its management committee, the Celtic Sea Herring Management Advisory Committee (CSHMAC). The Celtic Sea Herring fishery exhibits many aspects of an EAFM and the fish stock has successfully recovered to healthy levels in the past 5 years. However there are increasing levels of governance related conflict within the fishery which threaten the future sustainability of the stock. Previous research on EAFM governance has tended to focus either on higher levels of EAFM governance or on individual behaviour but very little research has attempted to link the two spheres or explore the relationship between them. Two main themes within this study aimed to address this gap. The first was what role governance could play in facilitating EAFM implementation. The second theme concerned the degree of convergence between high-level EAFM goals and stakeholder values. The first method applied was governance benchmarking to analyse systemic risks to EAFM implementation. This found that there are no real EU or national level policies which provide stakeholders or managers with clear targets for EAFM implementation. The second method applied was the use of cognitive mapping to explore stakeholders understandings of the main ecological, economic and institutional driving forces in the Celtic Sea Herring fishery. The main finding from this was that a long-term outlook can and has been incentivised through a combination of policy drivers and participatory management. However the fundamental principle of EAFM, accounting for ecosystem linkages rather than target stocks was not reflected in stakeholders cognitive maps. This was confirmed in a prioritisation of stakeholders management priorities using Analytic Hierarchy Process which found that the overriding concern is for protection of target stock status but that wider ecosystem health was not a priority for most management participants. The conclusion reached is that moving to sustainable fisheries may be a more complex process than envisioned in much of the literature and may consist of two phases. The first phase is a transition to a long-term but still target stock focused approach. This achievable transition is mainly a strategic change, which can be incentivised by policies and supported by stakeholders. In the Celtic Sea Herring fishery, and an increasing number of global and European fisheries, such transitions have contributed to successful stock recoveries. The second phase however, implementation of an ecosystem approach, may present a greater challenge in terms of governability, as this research highlights some fundamental conflicts between stakeholder perceptions and values and those inherent in an EAFM. This phase may involve the setting aside of fish for non-valued ecosystem elements and will require either a pronounced mind-set and value change or some strong top-down policy incentives in order to succeed. Fisheries governance frameworks will need to carefully explore the most effective balance between such endogenous and exogenous solutions. This finding of low prioritisation of wider ecosystem elements has implications for rights based management within an ecosystem approach, regardless of whether those rights are individual or collective.

The quality of diabetes care in the community: practice, policy and culture

Aim: Diabetes is an important barometer of health system performance. This chronic condition is a source of significant morbidity, premature mortality and a major contributor to health care costs. There is an increasing focus internationally, and more recently nationally, on system, practice and professional-level initiatives to promote the quality of care. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the ‘quality chasm’ around the organisation and delivery of diabetes care in general practice, to explore GPs’ attitudes to engaging in quality improvement activities and to examine efforts to improve the quality of diabetes care in Ireland from practice to policy. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative methods were used. As part of a mixed methods sequential design, a postal survey of 600 GPs was conducted to assess the organization of care. This was followed by an in-depth qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 31 GPs from urban and rural areas. The qualitative methodology was also used to examine GPs’ attitudes to engaging in quality improvement. Data were analysed using a Framework approach. A 2nd observation study was used to assess the quality of care in 63 practices with a special interest in diabetes. Data on 3010 adults with Type 2 diabetes from 3 primary care initiatives were analysed and the results were benchmarked against national guidelines and standards of care in the UK. The final study was an instrumental case study of policy formulation. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 members of the Expert Advisory Group (EAG) for Diabetes. Thematic analysis was applied to the data using 3 theories of the policy process as analytical tools. Results: The survey response rate was 44% (n=262). Results suggested care delivery was largely unstructured; 45% of GPs had a diabetes register (n=157), 53% reported using guidelines (n=140), 30% had formal call recall system (n=78) and 24% had none of these organizational features (n=62). Only 10% of GPs had a formal shared protocol with the local hospital specialist diabetes team (n=26). The lack of coordination between settings was identified as a major barrier to providing optimal care leading to waiting times, overburdened hospitals and avoidable duplication. The lack of remuneration for chronic disease management had a ripple effect also creating costs for patients and apathy among GPs. There was also a sense of inertia around quality improvement activities particularly at a national level. This attitude was strongly influenced by previous experiences of change in the health system. In contrast GP’s spoke positively about change at a local level which was facilitated by a practice ethos, leadership and special interest in diabetes. The 2nd quantitative study found that practices with a special interest in diabetes achieved a standard of care comparable to the UK in terms of the recording of clinical processes of care and the achievement of clinical targets; 35% of patients reached the HbA1c target of <6.5% compared to 26% in England and Wales. With regard to diabetes policy formulation, the evolving process of action and inaction was best described by the Multiple Streams Theory. Within the EAG, the formulation of recommendations was facilitated by overarching agreement on the “obvious” priorities while the details of proposals were influenced by personal preferences and local capacity. In contrast the national decision-making process was protracted and ambiguous. The lack of impetus from senior management coupled with the lack of power conferred on the EAG impeded progress. Conclusions: The findings highlight the inconsistency of diabetes care in Ireland. The main barriers to optimal diabetes management center on the organization and coordination of care at the systems level with consequences for practice, providers and patients. Quality improvement initiatives need to stimulate a sense of ownership and interest among frontline service providers to address the local sense of inertia to national change. To date quality improvement in diabetes care has been largely dependent the “special interest” of professionals. The challenge for the Irish health system is to embed this activity as part of routine practice, professional responsibility and the underlying health care culture.

Biodiversity change in the Irish uplands - the effects of grazing management

As a prominent form of land use across much of upland Europe, extensive livestock grazing may hold the key to the sustainable management of these landscapes. Recent agricultural policy reform, however, has resulted in a decline in upland sheep numbers, prompting concern for the biodiversity value of these areas. This study quantifies the effects of varying levels of grazing management on plant, ground beetle and breeding bird diversity and assemblage in the uplands and lowlands of hill sheep farms in County Kerry, Ireland. Farms represent a continuum of light to heavy grazing, measured using a series of field indicators across several habitats, such as the internationally important blanket bog, home to the ground beetle, Carabus clatratus. Linear mixed effects modelling and non-metric multidimensional scaling are employed to disentangle the most influential management and environmental factors. Grazing state may be determined by the presence of Molinia caerulea or Nardus stricta, and variables such as % traditional ewes, % vegetation litter and % scrub prove valuable indicators of diversity. Measures of ecosystem functioning, e.g. plant biomass (nutrient cycling) and % vegetation cover (erosion rates) are influenced by plant diversity, which is influenced by grazing management. Levels of the ecosystem service, soil organic carbon, vary with ground beetle abundance and diversity, potentially influencing carbon sequestration and thereby climate change. The majority of species from all three taxa are found in the lowlands, with the exception of birds such as meadow pipit and skylark. The scale of measurement should be determined by the size and mobility of the species in question. The challenge is to manage these high nature value landscapes using agri-environment schemes which enhance biodiversity by maintaining structural heterogeneity across a range of scales, altitudes and habitats whilst integrating the decisions of people living and working in these marginal areas.

The ways in which new public management ideas impact upon the administrative culture of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals working within Irish social policy

The conventional meaning of culture is ‘widely shared and strongly held values’ of a particular group or society (Bradley and Parker, 2006: 89). Culture is not a rigid concept; it can be influenced or altered by new ideas or forces. This research examines the ways in which one set of ideas in particular, that is, those associated with New Public Management, have impacted upon the administrative culture of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy. Lipsky (1980: 3) defined 'street-level' bureaucrats as ‘public service workers who interact directly with citizens in the course of their jobs, and who have substantial discretion in the execution of their work’. Utilising the Competing Values Framework (CVF) in the analysis of eighty three semi-structured interviews with 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals, an evaluation is made as to the impact of NPM ideas on both visible and invisible aspects of administrative culture. Overall, the influence of NPM is confined to superficial aspects of administrative culture such as; increased flexibility in working hours and to some degree job contracts; increased time commitment; and a customer service focus. However, the extent of these changes varies depending on policy sector and occupational group. Aspects of consensual and hierarchical cultures remain firmly in place. These coincide with features of developmental and market cultures. Contrary to the view that members of hierarchical and consensual culture would pose resistance to change, this research clearly illustrates that a very large appetite for change exists in the attitudes of 'street-level' bureaucrats and professionals within Irish social policy, with many of them suggesting changes that correspond to NPM ideas. This study demonstrates the relevance of employing the CVF model as it is clear that administrative culture is very much a dynamic system of competing and co-existing cultures.