EFFICIENT EVALUATION OF RANKING PROCEDURES WHEN THE NUMBER OF UNITS IS LARGE WITH APPLICATION TO SNP IDENTIFICATION

Simulation-based assessment is a popular and frequently necessary approach to evaluation of statistical procedures. Sometimes overlooked is the ability to take advantage of underlying mathematical relations and we focus on this aspect. We show how to take advantage of large-sample theory when conducting a simulation using the analysis of genomic data as a motivating example. The approach uses convergence results to provide an approximation to smaller-sample results, results that are available only by simulation. We consider evaluating and comparing a variety of ranking-based methods for identifying the most highly associated SNPs in a genome-wide association study, derive integral equation representations of the pre-posterior distribution of percentiles produced by three ranking methods, and provide examples comparing performance. These results are of interest in their own right and set the framework for a more extensive set of comparisons.

The role of the number of uninvolved lymph nodes in predicting locoregional recurrence in breast cancer

PURPOSE: To identify groups of early breast cancer patients with substantial risk (10-year risk > 20%) for locoregional failure (LRF) who might benefit from postmastectomy radiotherapy (RT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prognostic factors for LRF were evaluated among 6,660 patients (2,588 node-negative patients, 4,072 node-positive patients) in International Breast Cancer Study Group Trials I to IX treated with chemotherapy and/or endocrine therapy, and observed for a median of 14 years. In total, 1,251 LRFs were detected. All patients were treated with mastectomy without RT. RESULTS: No group with 10-year LRF risk exceeding 20% was found among patients with node-negative disease. Among patients with node-positive breast cancer, increasing numbers of uninvolved nodes were significantly associated with decreased risk of LRF, even after adjustment for other prognostic factors. The highest quartile of uninvolved nodes was compared with the lowest quartile. Among premenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 35% (P = .0010); among postmenopausal patients, LRF risk was decreased by 46% (P < .0001). The 10-year cumulative incidence of LRF was 20% among patients with one to three involved lymph nodes and fewer than 10 uninvolved nodes. Age younger than 40 years and vessel invasion were also associated significantly with increased risk. Among patients with node-positive disease, overall survival was significantly greater in those with higher numbers of uninvolved nodes examined (P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Patients with one to three involved nodes and a low number of uninvolved nodes, vessel invasion, or young age have an increased risk of LRF and may be candidates for a similar treatment as those with at least four lymph node metastases.

Long-term results after fluoroscopy-guided closure of patent foramen ovale for secondary prevention of paradoxical embolism

OBJECTIVES: To carry out long-term follow-up after percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) in patients with cryptogenic stroke. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Single tertiary care centre. PARTICIPANTS: 525 consecutive patients (mean (SD) age 51 (12) years; 56% male). INTERVENTIONS: Percutaneous PFO closure without intraprocedural echocardiography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Freedom from recurrent embolic events. RESULTS: A mean (SD) of 1.7 (1.0) clinically apparent embolic events occurred for each patient, and 186 patients (35%) had >1 event. An atrial septal aneurysm was associated with the PFO in 161 patients (31%). All patients were followed up prospectively for up to 11 years. The implantation procedure failed in two patients (0.4%). There were 13 procedural complications (2.5%) without any long-term sequelae. Contrast transoesophageal echocardiography at 6 months showed complete closure in 86% of patients, and a minimal, moderate or large residual shunt in 9%, 3% and 2%, respectively. Patients with small occluders (<30 mm; n = 429) had fewer residual shunts (small 11% vs large 27%; p<0.001). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.9 (2.2) years (median 2.3 years; total 1534 patient-years), six ischaemic strokes, nine transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) and two peripheral emboli occurred. Freedom from recurrent stroke, TIA, or peripheral embolism was 98% at 1 year, 97% at 2 years and 96% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. A residual shunt (hazard ratio = 3.4; 95% CI 1.3 to 9.2) was a risk factor for recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: This study attests to the long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous PFO closure guided by fluoroscopy only for secondary prevention of paradoxical embolism in a large cohort of consecutive patients.

Atrial fibrillation following device closure of patent foramen ovale

OBJECTIVES: Recurrent embolic events after device closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) have been related to incomplete closure. Another cause could be atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of AF in stroke patients after PFO closure. METHODS: Consecutive patients with device closure of a PFO after a stroke or transient ischemic attack and control patients with stroke underwent 7-day event loop recordings 3 and 6 months after PFO closure or stroke, respectively. RESULTS: Forty patients treated by PFO device closure 96 +/- 68 days after cryptogenic ischemic stroke and 70 control patients with ischemic stroke of other etiologies (known AF excluded) were compared. AF was identified in 6 patients (15%) of the treated group and in 12 control patients (17%, p = 0.77). In multivariate analysis, the presence of an occluder device was not an independent risk factor for AF. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of AF is high after device closure of a PFO in stroke patients and similar to that in patients with stroke of non-PFO etiology and, hence, with no device. Further studies are required to determine the risk of thromboembolism and the optimal treatment in patients developing AF after device closure of a PFO.

Transseptal puncture for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation after device closure of patent foramen ovale

The technique of transseptal puncture for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation after percutaneous closure of a foramen ovale with the Amplatzer Occluder is demonstrated based on 2 representative cases.

Percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale for migraine headaches refractory to medical treatment

BACKGROUND: Patent foramen ovale (PFO) has been linked to migraine, and several retrospective studies reported an improvement in migraine prevalence or frequency after PFO closure for other reasons, mostly for secondary prevention of paradoxical embolism or following diving accidents. We investigated the outcome of patients undergoing PFO closure solely for migraine headaches refractory to medical treatment. METHODS: Seventeen patients (age 44 +/- 12 years; 76% female; one atrial septal aneurysm) underwent percutaneous PFO closure using the Amplatzer PFO Occluder (AGA Medical Corporation, Golden Valley, MN). An 18-mm device was used in two patients, a 25-mm device in 13, and a 35-mm device in two. The interventions were solely guided by fluoroscopy, without intraprocedural echocardiography. RESULTS: All implantation procedures were successful. There were no peri-procedural complications. Contrast transesophageal echocardiography after Valsalva maneuver at 6 months showed complete PFO closure in 16 patients (94%), whereas a minimal residual shunt persisted in one (6%). During 2.7 +/- 1.5 years of follow-up, no deaths and no embolic events occurred. After PFO closure, migraine headaches disappeared in four patients (24%), and improved in eight additional patients (47%). Three patients (18%) reported a decrease of their headaches by 75%, three patients (18%) a decrease of 50%, and two patients (12%) a decrease of 25%, while headaches remained unchanged in five patients (29%). No patient experienced worsening headaches. Moreover, the prevalence of migraine with aura decreased from 82 to 24% (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that percutaneous PFO closure durably alters the spontaneous course of shunt associated migraine.

Safety and feasibility of percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale without intra-procedural echocardiography in 825 patients

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) is generally performed using intra-procedural guidance by transoesophageal (TEE) or intracardiac (ICE) echocardiography. While TEE requires sedation or general anaesthesia, ICE is costly and adds incremental risk, and both imaging modalities lengthen the procedure. METHODS: A total of 825 consecutive patients (age 51 +/- 13 years; 58% male) underwent percutaneous PFO closure solely under fluoroscopic guidance, without intra-procedural echocardiography. The indications for PFO closure were presumed paradoxical embolism in 698 patients (95% cerebral, 5% other locations), an embolic event with concurrent aetiologies in 47, diving in 51, migraine headaches in 13, and other reasons in 16. An atrial septal aneurysm was associated with the PFO in 242 patients (29%). RESULTS: Permanent device implantation failed in two patients (0.2%). There were 18 procedural complications (2.2%), including embolization of the device or parts of it in five patients with successful percutaneous removal in all cases, air embolism with transient symptoms in four patients, pericardial tamponade requiring pericardiocentesis in one patient, a transient ischaemic attack with visual symptoms in one patient, and vascular access site problems in seven patients. There were no long-term sequelae. Contrast TEE at six months showed complete abolition of right-to-left shunt via PFO in 88% of patients, whereas a minimal, moderate or large residual shunt persisted in 7%, 3%, and 2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the safety and feasibility of percutaneous PFO closure without intra-procedural echocardiographic guidance in a large cohort of consecutive patients.

Data-driven estimates of the number of clusters in multivariate time series

An important problem in unsupervised data clustering is how to determine the number of clusters. Here we investigate how this can be achieved in an automated way by using interrelation matrices of multivariate time series. Two nonparametric and purely data driven algorithms are expounded and compared. The first exploits the eigenvalue spectra of surrogate data, while the second employs the eigenvector components of the interrelation matrix. Compared to the first algorithm, the second approach is computationally faster and not limited to linear interrelation measures.

Late results after percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale for secondary prevention of paradoxical embolism using the amplatzer PFO occluder without intraprocedural echocardiography: effect of device size

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess the safety and clinical efficacy of patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure under fluoroscopic guidance only, without intraprocedural echocardiography. BACKGROUND: Percutaneous PFO closure has been shown to be safe and feasible using several devices. It is generally performed using simultaneously fluoroscopic and transesophageal or intracardiac echocardiographic guidance. Transesophageal echocardiography requires sedation or general anesthesia and intubation to avoid aspiration. Intracardiac echocardiography is costly and has inherent risks. Both lengthen the procedure. The Amplatzer PFO Occluder (AGA Medical Corporation, Golden Valley, Minnesota) can be safely implanted without echocardiographic guidance. METHODS: A total of 620 patients (51 +/- 12 years; 66% male) underwent PFO closure using the Amplatzer PFO Occluder for secondary prevention of presumed paradoxical embolism. Based on size and mobility of the PFO and the interatrial septum, an 18-mm device was used in 50 patients, a 25-mm device in 492, and a 35-mm device in 78. RESULTS: All procedures were successful, with 5 procedural complications (0.8%): 4 arteriovenous fistulae requiring elective surgical correction, and 1 transient ischemic attack. Contrast transesophageal echocardiography at 6 months showed complete closure in 91% of patients, whereas a minimal, moderate, or large residual shunt persisted in 6%, 2%, and 1%, respectively. During a mean follow-up period of 3.0 +/- 1.9 years (median: 2.6 years; total patient-years: 1,871), 5 ischemic strokes, 8 transient ischemic attacks, and no peripheral emboli were reported. Freedom from recurrent ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or peripheral embolism was 99% at 1 year, 99% at 2 years, and 97% at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The Amplatzer PFO Occluder affords excellent safety and long-term clinical efficacy of percutaneous PFO closure without intraprocedural echocardiography.