Using Effluent Charges in Promoting Investment in Water Pollution Control Technology: A Model of Coordination Failure among Firms

Untreated wastewater being directly discharged into rivers is a very harmful environmental hazard that needs to be tackled urgently in many countries. In order to safeguard the river ecosystem and reduce water pollution, it is important to have an effluent charge policy that promotes the investment of wastewater treatment technology by domestic firms. This paper considers the strategic interaction between the government and the domestic firms regarding the investment in the wastewater treatment technology and the design of optimal e­ffluent charge policy that should be implemented. In this model, the higher is the proportion of non-investing firms, the higher would be the probability of having to incur an e­ffluent charge and the higher would be that charge. On one hand the government needs to impose a sufficiently strict policy to ensure that firms have strong incentive to invest. On the other hand, it cannot be too strict that it drives out firms which cannot afford to invest in such expensive technology. The paper analyses the factors that affect the probability of investment in this technology. It also explains the difficulty of imposing a strict environment policy in countries that have too many small firms which cannot afford to invest unless subsidised.

Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

This paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.

Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy

UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the non-target region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

A bayesian spatial individual effects probit model of the 2010 UK general election

The Conservative Party emerged from the 2010 United Kingdom General Election as the largest single party, but their support was not geographically uniform. In this paper, we estimate a hierarchical Bayesian spatial probit model that tests for the presence of regional voting effects. This model allows for the estimation of individual region-specic effects on the probability of Conservative Party success, incorporating information on the spatial relationships between the regions of the mainland United Kingdom. After controlling for a range of important covariates, we find that these spatial relationships are significant and that our individual region-specic effects estimates provide additional evidence of North-South variations in Conservative Party support.

An Optimised Illustrative Investment Model Of The Economics Of Integrated Returns From CCS Deployment In The UK/UKCS

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 118

A Futuristic Least-cost Optimisation Model of CO2 Transportation and Storage in the UK/UK Continental Shelf

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 112

Accurate performance of a rat model of schizophrenia in the water maze depends on visual cue availability and stability: a distortion in cognitive mapping abilities?

Rats were treated postnatally (PND 5-16) with BSO (l-buthionine-(S,R)-sulfoximine) in an animal model of schizophrenia based on transient glutathione deficit. The BSO treated rats were impaired in patrolling a maze or a homing table when adult, yet demonstrated preserved escape learning, place discrimination and reversal in a water maze task [37]. In the present work, BSO rats' performance in the water maze was assessed in conditions controlling for the available visual cues. First, in a completely curtained environment with two salient controlled cues, BSO rats showed little accuracy compared to control rats. Secondly, pre-trained BSO rats were impaired in reaching the familiar spatial position when curtains partially occluded different portions of the room environment in successive sessions. The apparently preserved place learning in a classical water maze task thus appears to require the stability and the richness of visual landmarks from the surrounding environment. In other words, the accuracy of BSO rats in place and reversal learning is impaired in a minimal cue condition or when the visual panorama changes between trials. However, if the panorama remains rich and stable between trials, BSO rats are equally efficient in reaching a familiar position or in learning a new one. This suggests that the BSO accurate performance in the water maze does not satisfy all the criteria for a cognitive map based navigation on the integration of polymodal cues. It supports the general hypothesis of a binding deficit in BSO rats.

An adapted model of ex vivo vein perfusion: the key to understand vessel wall remodeling

Objective: Saphenous vein graft bypass remains the salvage option when¦endovascular procedure has failed or was contraindicated due to extensive¦occlusive lesions. However, pathological wall remodeling leading leading to¦graft failure is one of the most limiting factors of this therapy. Therefore, the¦understanding of this remodeling process of human vein is essential to the design¦of future effective therapeutics and it requires an adapted model of ex-vivo vein¦perfusion.¦Methods: We have developed an ex vivo vein support system (EVVSS), which¦uses standardized and controlled hemodynamic parameters for the pulsatile¦perfusion of saphenous vein segments. The morphological and molecular¦parameters involved in the remodeling process under an arterial shear stress¦associated to low (7 mm Hg) or high (70 mm Hg) pressure conditions can be¦analyzed.¦Results: Histomorphometric analysis showed that the vein segments perfused¦during 7 days under high pressure undergo a significant neointima development¦compared to veins exposed to low pressure conditions. The application of an¦arterial shear stress in the vein under low pressure induced an elevation of the¦MMP-2 and MMP-9 expression, activity and transcription. The application of¦higher pressure is associated to increased MMP2 expression and transcription¦and MMP9 transcription. TIMP1 expression and transcription were initiated by¦the application of an arterial shear stress but not modified by the modification¦of the pressure. However, TIMP2 expression was increased under high¦pressure conditions but its transcription was inhibited by arterial shear stress,¦independently of the pressure. The values of transcription and expression of¦PAI-1 were not modified by high pressure. Eph-B4 transcription and expression¦were significantly decreased under arterial shear stress.¦Conclusion: These data show that our EVVSS is a valuable setting to study¦ex vivo remodeling of human saphenous veins submitted to arterial conditions.¦The intimal hyperplasia as well as MMP 2, 9 and TIMP 2 seem to be influenced¦by the pressure.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

A Behavioural Model of Choice in the Presence of Decision Conflict

This paper proposes a model of choice that does not assume completeness of the decision maker’s preferences. The model explains in a natural way, and within a unified framework of choice when preference-incomparable options are present, four behavioural phenomena: the attraction effect, choice deferral, the strengthening of the attraction effect when deferral is per-missible, and status quo bias. The key element in the proposed decision rule is that an individual chooses an alternative from a menu if it is worse than no other alternative in that menu and is also better than at least one. Utility-maximising behaviour is included as a special case when preferences are complete. The relevance of the partial dominance idea underlying the proposed choice procedure is illustrated with an intuitive generalisation of weakly dominated strategies and their iterated deletion in games with vector payoffs.

Partial Knowledge Restrictions on theTwo-Stage Threshold Model of Choice

In the context of the two-stage threshold model of decision making, with the agent’s choices determined by the interaction Of three “structural variables,” we study the restrictions on behavior that arise when one or more variables are xogenously known. Our results supply necessary and sufficient conditions for consistency with the model for all possible states of partial Knowledge, and for both single- and multivalued choice functions.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Ammonium accumulation and cell death in a rat 3D brain cell model of glutaric aciduria type I.

Glutaric aciduria type I (glutaryl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency) is an inborn error of metabolism that usually manifests in infancy by an acute encephalopathic crisis and often results in permanent motor handicap. Biochemical hallmarks of this disease are elevated levels of glutarate and 3-hydroxyglutarate in blood and urine. The neuropathology of this disease is still poorly understood, as low lysine diet and carnitine supplementation do not always prevent brain damage, even in early-treated patients. We used a 3D in vitro model of rat organotypic brain cell cultures in aggregates to mimic glutaric aciduria type I by repeated administration of 1 mM glutarate or 3-hydroxyglutarate at two time points representing different developmental stages. Both metabolites were deleterious for the developing brain cells, with 3-hydroxyglutarate being the most toxic metabolite in our model. Astrocytes were the cells most strongly affected by metabolite exposure. In culture medium, we observed an up to 11-fold increase of ammonium in the culture medium with a concomitant decrease of glutamine. We further observed an increase in lactate and a concomitant decrease in glucose. Exposure to 3-hydroxyglutarate led to a significantly increased cell death rate. Thus, we propose a three step model for brain damage in glutaric aciduria type I: (i) 3-OHGA causes the death of astrocytes, (ii) deficiency of the astrocytic enzyme glutamine synthetase leads to intracerebral ammonium accumulation, and (iii) high ammonium triggers secondary death of other brain cells. These unexpected findings need to be further investigated and verified in vivo. They suggest that intracerebral ammonium accumulation might be an important target for the development of more effective treatment strategies to prevent brain damage in patients with glutaric aciduria type I.