838 resultados para linear mixed-effects models


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If change over time is compared in several groups, it is important to take into account baseline values so that the comparison is carried out under the same preconditions. As the observed baseline measurements are distorted by measurement error, it may not be sufficient to include them as covariate. By fitting a longitudinal mixed-effects model to all data including the baseline observations and subsequently calculating the expected change conditional on the underlying baseline value, a solution to this problem has been provided recently so that groups with the same baseline characteristics can be compared. In this article, we present an extended approach where a broader set of models can be used. Specifically, it is possible to include any desired set of interactions between the time variable and the other covariates, and also, time-dependent covariates can be included. Additionally, we extend the method to adjust for baseline measurement error of other time-varying covariates. We apply the methodology to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study to address the question if a joint infection with HIV-1 and hepatitis C virus leads to a slower increase of CD4 lymphocyte counts over time after the start of antiretroviral therapy.

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Background: Prevalence of hypertension in HIV infection is high, and information on blood pressure control in HIV-infected individuals is insufficient. We modeled blood pressure over time and the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive HIV-infected individuals. Methods: All patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with confirmed hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 139 or 89 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and presence of at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor) between April 1, 2000 and March 31, 2011 were included. Patients with previous cardiovascular events, already on antihypertensive drugs, and pregnant women were excluded. Change in blood pressure over time was modeled using linear mixed models with repeated measurement. Results: Hypertension was diagnosed in 2595 of 10,361 eligible patients. Of those, 869 initiated antihypertensive treatment. For patients treated for hypertension, we found a mean (95% confidence interval) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure of −0.82 (−1.06 to −0.58) mm Hg and −0.89 (−1.05 to −0.73) mm Hg/yr, respectively. Factors associated with a decline in systolic blood pressure were baseline blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and the typical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In patients with hypertension, increase in systolic blood pressure [(hazard ratio 1.18 (1.06 to 1.32) per 10 mm Hg increase], total cholesterol, smoking, age, and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor–based and triple nucleoside regimens were associated with cardiovascular events. Conclusions: Insufficient control of hypertension was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events indicating the need for improved management of hypertension in HIV-infected individuals.

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The use of group-randomized trials is particularly widespread in the evaluation of health care, educational, and screening strategies. Group-randomized trials represent a subset of a larger class of designs often labeled nested, hierarchical, or multilevel and are characterized by the randomization of intact social units or groups, rather than individuals. The application of random effects models to group-randomized trials requires the specification of fixed and random components of the model. The underlying assumption is usually that these random components are normally distributed. This research is intended to determine if the Type I error rate and power are affected when the assumption of normality for the random component representing the group effect is violated. ^ In this study, simulated data are used to examine the Type I error rate, power, bias and mean squared error of the estimates of the fixed effect and the observed intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) when the random component representing the group effect possess distributions with non-normal characteristics, such as heavy tails or severe skewness. The simulated data are generated with various characteristics (e.g. number of schools per condition, number of students per school, and several within school ICCs) observed in most small, school-based, group-randomized trials. The analysis is carried out using SAS PROC MIXED, Version 6.12, with random effects specified in a random statement and restricted maximum likelihood (REML) estimation specified. The results from the non-normally distributed data are compared to the results obtained from the analysis of data with similar design characteristics but normally distributed random effects. ^ The results suggest that the violation of the normality assumption for the group component by a skewed or heavy-tailed distribution does not appear to influence the estimation of the fixed effect, Type I error, and power. Negative biases were detected when estimating the sample ICC and dramatically increased in magnitude as the true ICC increased. These biases were not as pronounced when the true ICC was within the range observed in most group-randomized trials (i.e. 0.00 to 0.05). The normally distributed group effect also resulted in bias ICC estimates when the true ICC was greater than 0.05. However, this may be a result of higher correlation within the data. ^

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OBJECTIVE We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk.

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Objective: We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation. Methods: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) “high-risk” echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings. Results: A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use. Conclusion: Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.

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SUMMARY BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Orthodontic management of maxillary canine impaction (MCI), including forced eruption, may result in significant root resorption; however, the association between MCI and orthodontically induced root resorption (OIRR) is not yet sufficiently established. The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to comparatively evaluate the severity of OIRR of maxillary incisors in orthodontically treated patients with MCI. Additionally, impaction characteristics were associated with OIRR severity. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The sample comprised 48 patients undergoing fixed-appliance treatment-24 with unilateral/bilateral MCI and 24 matched controls without impaction. OIRR was calculated using pre- and post-operative panoramic tomograms. The orientation of eruption path, height, sector location, and follicle/tooth ratio of the impacted canine were also recorded. Mann-Whitney U-test and univariate and multivariate linear mixed models were used to test for the associations of interest. RESULTS Maxillary central left incisor underwent more OIRR in the impaction group (mean difference = 0.58mm, P = 0.04). Overall, the impaction group had 0.38mm more OIRR compared to the control (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.03, 0.74; P = 0.04). However, multivariate analysis demonstrated no difference in the amount of OIRR between impaction and non-impaction groups overall. A positive association between OIRR and initial root length was observed (95% CI: 0.08, 0.27; P < 0.001). The severity of canine impaction was not found to be a significant predictor of OIRR. LIMITATIONS This study was a retrospective study and used panoramic tomograms for OIRR measurements. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that MCI is a weak OIRR predictor. Interpretation of the results needs caution due to the observational nature of the present study.

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The challenge for sustainable organic dairy farming is identification of cows that are well adapted to forage-based production systems. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the grazing behaviour, physical activity and metabolic profile of two different Holstein strains kept in an organic grazing system without concentrate supplementation. Twelve Swiss (HCH ; 566 kg body weight (BW) and 12 New Zealand Holstein-Friesian (HNZ ; 530 kg BW) cows in mid-lactation were kept in a rotational grazing system. After an adaptation period, the milk yield, nutrient intake, physical activity and grazing behaviour were recorded for each cow for 7 days. On three consecutive days, blood was sampled at 07:00, 12:00 and 17:00 h from each cow by jugular vein puncture. Data were analysed using linear mixed models. No differences were found in milk yield, but milk fat (3.69 vs. 4.05%, P = 0.05) and milk protein percentage (2.92 vs. 3.20%, P < 0.01) were lower in HCH than in HNZ cows. Herbage intake did not differ between strains, but organic matter digestibility was greater (P = 0.01) in HCH compared to HNZ cows. The HCH cows spent less (P = 0.04) time ruminating (439 vs. 469 min/day) and had a lower (P = 0.02) number of ruminating boli when compared to the HNZ cows. The time spent eating and physical activity did not differ between strains. Concentrations of IGF-1 and T3 were lower (P ≤ 0.05) in HCH than HNZ cows. In conclusion, HCH cows were not able to increase dry matter intake in order to express their full genetic potential for milk production when kept in an organic grazing system without concentrate supplementation. On the other hand, HNZ cows seem to compensate for the reduced nutrient availability better than HCH cows but could not use that advantage for increased production efficiency

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OBJECTIVE Poison centres offer rapid and comprehensive support for emergency physicians managing poisoned patients. This study investigates institutional, case-specific and poisoning-specific factors which influence the decision of emergency physicians to contact a poison centre. METHODS Retrospective, consecutive review of all poisoning-related admissions to the emergency departments (EDs) of a primary care hospital and a university hospital-based tertiary referral centre during 2007. Corresponding poison centre consultations were extracted from the poison centre database. Data were matched and analysed by logistic regression and generalised linear mixed models. RESULTS 545 poisonings were treated in the participating EDs (350 (64.2%) in the tertiary care centre, 195 (35.8%) in the primary care hospital). The poison centre was consulted in 62 (11.4%) cases (38 (61.3%) by the tertiary care centre and 24 (38.7%) by the primary care hospital). Factors significantly associated with poison centre consultation included gender (female vs male) (OR 2.99; 95% CI 1.69 to 5.29; p<0.001), number of ingested substances (>1 vs 1) (OR 2.84; 95% CI 1.65 to 4.9; p<0.001) and situation (accidental vs intentional) (OR 2.76; 95% CI 1.05 to 7.25; p=0.039). In contrast, age, medical history and hospital size did not influence poison centre consultation. Poison centre consultation was significantly higher during the week, and significantly less during night shifts. The poison centre was consulted significantly more when patients were admitted to intensive care units (OR 5.81; 95% CI 3.25 to 10.37; p<0.001). Asymptomatic and severe versus mild cases were associated with more frequent consultation (OR 4.48; 95% CI 1.78 to 11.26; p=0.001 and OR 2.76; 95% CI 1.42 to 5.38; p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS We found low rates of poison centre consultation by emergency physicians. It appears that intensive care unit admission and other factors reflecting either complexity or uncertainty of the clinical situation are the strongest predictors for poison centre consultation. Hospital size did not influence referral behaviour.

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Objective: Minimizing resection and preserving leaflet tissue has been previously shown to be beneficial for mitral valve function and leaflet kinematics after repair of acute posterior leaflet prolapse in porcine valves. We examined the effects of different additional methods of mitral valve repair (neochordoplasty, ring annuloplasty, edge-to-edge repair and triangular resection) on hemodynamics at different heart rates in an experimental model. Methods: Severe acute P2 prolapse was created in eight porcine mitral valves by resecting the posterior marginal chordae. Valve hemodynamics was quantified under pulsatile conditions in an in vitro heart simulator before and after surgical manipulation. Mitral regurgitation was corrected using four different methods of repair on the same valve: neochordoplasty with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene sutures alone and together with ring annuloplasty, edge-to-edge repair and triangular resection, both with non-restrictive annuloplasty. Residual mitral valve leak, trans-valvular pressure gradients, flow and cardiac output were measured at 60 and 80 beats/min. A validated statistical linear mixed model was used to analyze the effect of treatment. The p values were calculated using a two-sided Wald test. Results: Only neochordoplasty with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene sutures but without ring annuloplasty achieved similar hemodynamics compared to those of the native mitral valve (p range 0.071-0.901). Trans-valvular diastolic pressure gradients were within a physiologic range but significantly higher than those of the native valve following neochordoplasty with ring annuloplasty (p=0.000), triangular resection (p=0.000) and edge-to-edge repair (p=0.000). Neochordoplasty alone was significantly better in terms of hemodynamic than neochordoplasty with a ring annuloplasty (p=0.000). These values were stable regardless of heart rate or ring size. Conclusions: Neochordoplasty without ring annuloplasty is the only repair technique able to achieve almost native physiological hemodynamics after correction of leaflet prolapse in a porcine experimental model of acute chordal rupture.

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Infrared thermography (IRT) was used to assess the effect of routine claw trimming on claw temperature. In total, 648 IRT observations each were collected from 81 cows housed in 6 tiestalls before and 3 wk after claw trimming. The feet were classified as either healthy (nonlesion group, n = 182) or affected with infectious foot disorders (group IFD, n = 142). The maximal surface temperatures of the coronary band and skin and the difference of the maximal temperatures (ΔT) between the lateral and medial claws of the respective foot were assessed. Linear mixed models, correcting for the hierarchical structure of the data, ambient temperature, and infectious status of the claws, were developed to evaluate the effect of time in relation to the trimming event (d 0 versus d 21) and claw (medial versus lateral). Front feet and hind feet were analyzed separately. Ambient temperature and infectious foot status were identified as external and internal factors, respectively, that significantly affected claw temperature. Before claw trimming, the lateral claws of the hind feet were significantly warmer compared with the medial claws, whereas such a difference was not evident for the claws of the front feet. At d 21, ΔT of the hind feet was reduced by ≥ 0.25 °C, whereas it was increased by ≤ 0.13 °C in the front feet compared with d 0. Therefore, trimming was associated with a remarkable decrease of ΔT of the hind claws. Equalizing the weight bearing of the hind feet by routine claw trimming is associated with a measurable reduction of ΔT between the paired hind claws.

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OBJECTIVE To determine the biomechanical effect of an intervertebral spacer on construct stiffness in a PVC model and cadaveric canine cervical vertebral columns stabilized with monocortical screws/polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). STUDY DESIGN Biomechanical study. SAMPLE POPULATION PVC pipe; cadaveric canine vertebral columns. METHODS PVC model-PVC pipe was used to create a gap model mimicking vertebral endplate orientation and disk space width of large-breed canine cervical vertebrae; 6 models had a 4-mm gap with no spacer (PVC group 1); 6 had a PVC pipe ring spacer filling the gap (PCV group 2). Animals-large breed cadaveric canine cervical vertebral columns (C2-C7) from skeletally mature dogs without (cadaveric group 1, n = 6, historical data) and with an intervertebral disk spacer (cadaveric group 2, n = 6) were used. All PVC models and cadaver specimens were instrumented with monocortical titanium screws/PMMA. Stiffness of the 2 PVC groups was compared in extension, flexion, and lateral bending using non-destructive 4-point bend testing. Stiffness testing in all 3 directions was performed of the unaltered C4-C5 vertebral motion unit in cadaveric spines and repeated after placement of an intervertebral cortical allograft ring and instrumentation. Data were compared using a linear mixed model approach that also incorporated data from previously tested spines with the same screw/PMMA construct but without disk spacer (cadaveric group 1). RESULTS Addition of a spacer increased construct stiffness in both the PVC model (P < .001) and cadaveric vertebral columns (P < .001) compared to fixation without a spacer. CONCLUSIONS Addition of an intervertebral spacer significantly increased construct stiffness of monocortical screw/PMMA fixation.

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Anticancer drugs typically are administered in the clinic in the form of mixtures, sometimes called combinations. Only in rare cases, however, are mixtures approved as drugs. Rather, research on mixtures tends to occur after single drugs have been approved. The goal of this research project was to develop modeling approaches that would encourage rational preclinical mixture design. To this end, a series of models were developed. First, several QSAR classification models were constructed to predict the cytotoxicity, oral clearance, and acute systemic toxicity of drugs. The QSAR models were applied to a set of over 115,000 natural compounds in order to identify promising ones for testing in mixtures. Second, an improved method was developed to assess synergistic, antagonistic, and additive effects between drugs in a mixture. This method, dubbed the MixLow method, is similar to the Median-Effect method, the de facto standard for assessing drug interactions. The primary difference between the two is that the MixLow method uses a nonlinear mixed-effects model to estimate parameters of concentration-effect curves, rather than an ordinary least squares procedure. Parameter estimators produced by the MixLow method were more precise than those produced by the Median-Effect Method, and coverage of Loewe index confidence intervals was superior. Third, a model was developed to predict drug interactions based on scores obtained from virtual docking experiments. This represents a novel approach for modeling drug mixtures and was more useful for the data modeled here than competing approaches. The model was applied to cytotoxicity data for 45 mixtures, each composed of up to 10 selected drugs. One drug, doxorubicin, was a standard chemotherapy agent and the others were well-known natural compounds including curcumin, EGCG, quercetin, and rhein. Predictions of synergism/antagonism were made for all possible fixed-ratio mixtures, cytotoxicities of the 10 best-scoring mixtures were tested, and drug interactions were assessed. Predicted and observed responses were highly correlated (r2 = 0.83). Results suggested that some mixtures allowed up to an 11-fold reduction of doxorubicin concentrations without sacrificing efficacy. Taken together, the models developed in this project present a general approach to rational design of mixtures during preclinical drug development. ^

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Patients who had started HAART (Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment) under previous aggressive DHHS guidelines (1997) underwent a life-long continuous HAART that was associated with many short term as well as long term complications. Many interventions attempted to reduce those complications including intermittent treatment also called pulse therapy. Many studies were done to study the determinants of rate of fall in CD4 count after interruption as this data would help guide treatment interruptions. The data set used here was a part of a cohort study taking place at the Johns Hopkins AIDS service since January 1984, in which the data were collected both prospectively and retrospectively. The patients in this data set consisted of 47 patients receiving via pulse therapy with the aim of reducing the long-term complications. ^ The aim of this project was to study the impact of virologic and immunologic factors on the rate of CD4 loss after treatment interruption. The exposure variables under investigation included CD4 cell count and viral load at treatment initiation. The rates of change of CD4 cell count after treatment interruption was estimated from observed data using advanced longitudinal data analysis methods (i.e., linear mixed model). Using random effects accounted for repeated measures of CD4 per person after treatment interruption. The regression coefficient estimates from the model was then used to produce subject specific rates of CD4 change accounting for group trends in change. The exposure variables of interest were age, race, and gender, CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels at HAART initiation. ^ The rate of fall of CD4 count did not depend on CD4 cell count or viral load at initiation of treatment. Thus these factors may not be used to determine who can have a chance of successful treatment interruption. CD4 and viral load were again studied by t-tests and ANOVA test after grouping based on medians and quartiles to see any difference in means of rate of CD4 fall after interruption. There was no significant difference between the groups suggesting that there was no association between rate of fall of CD4 after treatment interruption and above mentioned exposure variables. ^

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Background. Public schools are a key forum in the fight for child health because of the opportunities they present for physical activity and fitness surveillance. However, because schools are evaluated and funded on the basis of standardized academic performance rather than physical activity, empirical research evaluating the connections between fitness and academic performance is needed to justify curriculum allocations to physical activity. ^ Methods. Analyses were based on a convenience sample of 315,092 individually-matched standardized academic (TAKS™) and fitness (FITNESSGRAM®) test records collected by 13 Texas school districts under state mandates. We categorized each fitness result in quintiles by age and gender and used a mixed effects regression model to compare the academic performance of the top and bottom fitness groups for each fitness test and grade level combination. ^ Results. All fitness variables except BMI showed significant, positive associations with academic performance after sociodemographic covariate adjustments, with effect sizes ranging from 0.07 (95% CI: 0.05,0.08) in girls trunklift-TAKS reading to 0.34 (0.32,0.35) in boys cardiovascular-TAKS math. Cardiovascular fitness showed the largest inter-quintile difference in TAKS score (32-75 points), followed by curl-ups. After an additional adjustment for BMI and curl-ups, cardiovascular associations peaked in 8th-9 th grades (maximum inter-quintile difference 142 TAKS points; effect size 0.75 (0.69,0.82) for 8th grade girls math) and showed dose-response characteristics across quintiles (p<0.001 for both genders and outcomes). BMI analysis demonstrated limited, non-linear association with academic performance after adjustment for sociodemographic, cardiovascular fitness and curl-up variables. Low-BMI Hispanic high school boys showed significantly lower TAKS scores than the moderate (but not high) BMI group. High-BMI non-Hispanic white high school girls showed significantly lower scores than the moderate (but not low) BMI group. ^ Conclusions. In this study, fitness was strongly and significantly related to academic performance. Cardiovascular fitness showed a distinct dose-response association with academic performance independent of other sociodemographic and fitness variables. The association peaked in late middle to early high school. The independent association of BMI to academic performance was only found in two sub-groups and was non-linear, with both low and high BMI posing risk relative to moderate BMI but not to each other. In light of our findings, we recommend that policymakers consider PE mandates in middle-high school and require linkage of academic and fitness records to facilitate longitudinal surveillance. School administrators should consider increasing PE time in pursuit of higher academic test scores, and PE practitioners should emphasize cardiovascular fitness over BMI reduction.^

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Unlike infections occurring during periods of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, postoperative infections in patients with solid malignancy remain largely understudied. The purpose of this population-based study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden, as well as the relationship of hospital surgical volume and outcomes associated with serious postoperative infection (SPI) – i.e., bacteremia/sepsis, pneumonia, and wound infection – following resection of common solid tumors.^ From the Texas Discharge Data Research File, we identified all Texas residents who underwent resection of cancer of the lung, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, colon, or rectum between 2002 and 2006. From their billing records, we identified ICD-9 codes indicating SPI and also subsequent SPI-related readmissions occurring within 30 days of surgery. Random-effects logistic regression was used to calculate the impact of SPI on mortality, as well as the association between surgical volume and SPI, adjusting for case-mix, hospital characteristics, and clustering of multiple surgical admissions within the same patient and patients within the same hospital. Excess bed days and costs were calculated by subtracting values for patients without infections from those with infections computed using multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear model by fitting a gamma distribution to the data using log link.^ Serious postoperative infection occurred following 9.4% of the 37,582 eligible tumor resections and was independently associated with an 11-fold increase in the odds of in-hospital mortality (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI], 6.7-18.5, P < 0.001). Patients with SPI required 6.3 additional hospital days (95% CI, 6.1 - 6.5) at an incremental cost of $16,396 (95% CI, $15,927–$16,875). There was a significant trend toward lower overall rates of SPI with higher surgical volume (P=0.037). ^ Due to the substantial morbidity, mortality, and excess costs associated with SPI following solid tumor resections and given that, under current reimbursement practices, most of this heavy burden is borne by acute care providers, it is imperative for hospitals to identify more effective prophylactic measures, so that these potentially preventable infections and their associated expenditures can be averted. Additional volume-outcomes research is also needed to identify infection prevention processes that can be transferred from higher- to lower-volume providers.^