946 resultados para likely impact
Resumo:
Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.
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In this paper, we investigate the effects of societal values and life stage on subordinate influence ethics. Based on the evolving crossvergence theory of macro-level predictors of values evolution, we demonstrate the applicability of crossvergence theory in the micro-level context. Furthermore, our study provides the first empirical multi-level analysis of influence ethics utilizing a multi pie-country sample. Thus, we illustrate how the breath of crossvergence can be expanded to provide a multi-level theoretical foundation of values and behavior evolution across cultures. Specifically, we integrate micro-level life stage theory and macro-level societal culture theory to concurrently assess the contributions of each theory in explaining subordinate influence ethics across the diverse societies of Brazil. China, Germany and the U.S. Consistent with previous research, we found significant societal differences in influence ethics. However, we also found that life stage theory played a significant role in understanding influence ethics. Thus, our findings expand the crossvergence perspective on societal change, indicating that key micro-level predictors (e.g., life stage) should be included in cross-cultural research. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.
Resumo:
Certification of an ISO 14001 Environmental Management System (EMS) is currently an important requirement for those enterprises wishing to sell their products in the context of a global market. The system`s structure is based on environmental impact evaluation (EIE). However, if an erroneous or inadequate methodology is applied, the entire process may be jeopardized. Many methodologies have been developed for making of EIEs, some of them are fairly complex and unsuitable for EMS implementation in an organizational context, principally when small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) are involved. The proposed methodology for EIE is part of a model for implementing EMS. The methodological approach used was a qualitative exploratory research method based upon sources of evidence such as document analyses, semi-structured interviews and participant observations. By adopting a cooperative implementation model based on the theory of system engineering, difficulties relating to implementation of the sub-system were overcome thus encouraging SMEs to implement EMS. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This article attempts to elucidate one of the mechanisms that link trade barriers, in the form of port costs, and subsequent growth and regional inequality. Prior attention has focused on inland or link costs, but port costs can be considered as a further barrier to enhancing trade liberalization and growth. In contrast to a highway link, congestion at a port may have severe impacts that are spread over space and time whereas highway link congestion may be resolved within several hours. Since a port is part of the transportation network, any congestion/disruption is likely to ripple throughout the hinterland. In this sense, it is important to model properly the role nodal components play in the context of spatial models and international trade. In this article, a spatial computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that is integrated to a transport network system is presented to simulate the impacts of increases in port efficiency in Brazil. The role of ports of entry and ports of exit are explicitly considered to grasp the holistic picture in an integrated interregional system. Measures of efficiency for different port locations are incorporated in the calibration of the model and used as the benchmark in our simulations. Three scenarios are evaluated: (1) an overall increase in port efficiency in Brazil to achieve international standards; (2) efficiency gains associated with decentralization in port management in Brazil; and (3) regionally differentiated increases in port efficiency to reach the boundary of the national efficiency frontier.
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The diffusion of Pollution Prevention faces organizational barriers as for instance resistance to change, insufficient support from decision-makers, unclear project leadership, insufficient employee accountability and inflexible organizational structures. To understand how to overcome such barriers, the performance of a Pollution Prevention program of a multinational corporation is analyzed. The quantitative analyses of 2096 Pollution Prevention projects conducted between 1995 and 2007 support the conclusion that the performance of the Pollution Prevention program increased after the implementation of the Six Sigma program. Moreover, the analyses of 1906 Pollution Prevention projects and 31,133 Six Sigma projects for cost reduction in 27 countries indicate that in countries where the implementation of Six Sigma is more expressive, pollution is prevented more than in countries with less expressive Six Sigma implementation. In fact, the Six Sigma implementation improved the organizational capability for data based project management. Therefore, comparing six years before and six years after the Six Sigma implementation, the total number of Pollution Prevention projects recognized increased 6.9 times and the total amount of pollution prevented increased by 62%. The qualitative analysis describes how the Six Sigma program interacts with the Pollution Prevention program in the studied company. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.
Resumo:
Study objective: To investigate the effect of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia on serum folate and total plasma homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations. Design: Population based cohort study. Setting: Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men and women aged 27 to 77 years (n = 468), who were originally randomly selected from the Perth electoral roll. The cohort was surveyed in 1995/96 before widespread introduction of folate fortification of a variety of foods, and followed up on two occasions, firstly in 1998/99 and again in 2001, when a moderate number of folate fortified foods were available. Subjects with abnormal serum creatinine concentrations at baseline were excluded from this analysis. Main results: Repeated measures analysis of variance was used to determine changes in serum folate and tHcy over the three surveys and to assess whether time trends were related to age, sex, MTHFR C677T genotype, or consumption of folate fortified foods. An increase (38%) in mean serum folate (p < 0.0005) and a decrease (21%) in mean tHcy (p < 0.0005) were seen after introduction of the voluntary folate fortification policy in Australia. Serum folate was consistently higher (p = 0.032) and tHcy was consistently lower (p = 0.001) in subjects who consumed at least one folate fortified food compared with subjects who did not consume any folate fortified foods in the previous week. The time related changes in serum folate and tHcy were affected only by intake of folate fortified foods (p < 0.0005) and not by any other measured variables including age, sex, or MTHFR genotype. Conclusion: Voluntary fortification of foods with folate in Australia has been followed by a substantial increase in serum folate and decrease in tHcy in the general population.
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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the photodynamic therapy (PDT) on the inflammatory infiltrate and on the collagen network organization in human advanced chronic periodontitis Two different drug delivery systems (DDS) were tested (liposomes and nanoemulsions) to determine if the effects of PDT could differ according to the DDS used Sixteen patients presenting two teeth with chronic advanced periodontitis and Important tooth mobility with clinical indication of extraction were included in the group liposomes (group L n = 8) or in the group nanoemulsions (group N n = 8) in order to compare the effects of each DDS Seven days before extractions one tooth of each patient was treated with PDT using phthalocyanine derivatives as photosensitizers and the contralateral tooth was taken as control In group L the density of gingival collagen fibers (66 +/- 19%) was significantly Increased (p < 0 02) when compared to controls (35 +/- 21%) Concerning the antigen-presenting cells PDT had differential effects depending on the drug delivery system the number of macrophages was significantly decreased (p < 0 05) in group L while the number of Langerhans cells was significantly decreased in group N (p < 0 02) These findings demonstrate that PDT presents an impact on gingival Inflammatory phenomenon during chronic periodontitis and leads to a specific decrease of antigen-presenting cells populations according to the drug delivery system used (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
Resumo:
Coral reefs generally exist within a relatively narrow band of temperatures, light, and seawater aragonite saturation states. The growth of coral reefs is minimal or nonexistent outside this envelope. Climate change, through its effect on ocean temperature, has already had an impact on the world's coral reefs, with almost 30% of corals having disappeared since the beginning of the 1980s. Abnormally warm temperatures cause corals to bleach ( lose their brown dinoflagellate symbionts) and, if elevated for long enough, to die. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is also potentially affecting coral reefs by lowering the aragonite saturation state of seawater, making carbonate ions less available for calcification. The synergistic interaction of elevated temperature and CO2 is likely to produce major changes to coral reefs over the next few decades and centuries. Known tolerances of corals to projected changes to sea temperatures indicate that corals are unlikely to remain abundant on reefs and could be rare by the middle of this century if the atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles or triples. The combination of changes to sea temperature and carbonate ion availability could trigger large- scale changes in the biodiversity and function of coral reefs. The ramifications of these changes for the hundred of millions of coral reef - dependent people and industries living in a high- CO2 world have yet to be properly defined. The weight of evidence suggests, however, that projected changes will cause major shifts in the prospects for industries and societies that depend on having healthy coral reefs along their coastlines.
Resumo:
This study has calculated the potential impact of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on breast cancer incidence in Australia and has estimated how changes in prescribing HRT to women could affect this risk. The effects of HRT on breast cancer incidence was estimated using the attributable fraction technique with prevalence data derived from the 2001 Australian Health Survey and published rates of breast cancer relative risks from HRT use. In Australia, 12% of adult women were current HRT users and in 2001, 11783 breast cancers were reported. Of these, 1066 (9%) were potentially attributable to HRT. Restricting HRT use to women aged less than 65 years, ceasing HRT prescribing after 10 years or limiting combined oestrogen and progesterone HRT to five years (but otherwise keeping prescription levels to 2001 levels) may reduce the annual breast cancer caseload by 280 (2.4%), 555 (4.7%) or 674 (5.7%), respectively. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that when HRT prevalence is relatively high, the effect on breast cancer incidence in the population will be significant. A small modification in HRT prescribing practices may impact breast cancer incidence in Australia with associated financial and health care provision implications. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.