A Comprehensive Portfolio Construction Under Stochastic Environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, b) implement large-scale optimizations, and c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH).

Efeito dos dias da semana na volatilidade do índice S&P 500: Um estudo empírico

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira,

Credit spreads and monetary policy in a small open economy: an analysis of the colombian economy

This paper estimates Bejarano and Charry (2014)’s small open economy with financial frictions model for the Colombian economy using Bayesian estimation techniques. Additionally, I compute the welfare gains of implementing an optimal response to credit spreads into an augmented Taylor rule. The main result is that a reaction to credit spreads does not imply significant welfare gains unless the economic disturbances increases its volatility, like the disruption implied by a financial crisis. Otherwise its impact over the macroeconomic variables is null.

Essays in Financial Econometrics

The first paper sheds light on the informational content of high frequency data and daily data. I assess the economic value of the two family models comparing their performance in forecasting asset volatility through the Value at Risk metric. In running the comparison this paper introduces two key assumptions: jumps in prices and leverage effect in volatility dynamics. Findings suggest that high frequency data models do not exhibit a superior performance over daily data models. In the second paper, building on Majewski et al. (2015), I propose an affine-discrete time model, labeled VARG-J, which is characterized by a multifactor volatility specification. In the VARG-J model volatility experiences periods of extreme movements through a jump factor modeled as an Autoregressive Gamma Zero process. The estimation under historical measure is done by quasi-maximum likelihood and the Extended Kalman Filter. This strategy allows to filter out both volatility factors introducing a measurement equation that relates the Realized Volatility to latent volatility. The risk premia parameters are calibrated using call options written on S&P500 Index. The results clearly illustrate the important contribution of the jump factor in the pricing performance of options and the economic significance of the volatility jump risk premia. In the third paper, I analyze whether there is empirical evidence of contagion at the bank level, measuring the direction and the size of contagion transmission between European markets. In order to understand and quantify the contagion transmission on banking market, I estimate the econometric model by Aït-Sahalia et al. (2015) in which contagion is defined as the within and between countries transmission of shocks and asset returns are directly modeled as a Hawkes jump diffusion process. The empirical analysis indicates that there is a clear evidence of contagion from Greece to European countries as well as self-contagion in all countries.

Intermittent Fasting Induces Hypothalamic Modifications Resulting In Low Feeding Efficiency, Low Body Mass And Overeating.

Intermittent fasting (IF) is an often-used intervention to decrease body mass. In male Sprague-Dawley rats, 24 hour cycles of IF result in light caloric restriction, reduced body mass gain, and significant decreases in the efficiency of energy conversion. Here, we study the metabolic effects of IF in order to uncover mechanisms involved in this lower energy conversion efficiency. After 3 weeks, IF animals displayed overeating during fed periods and lower body mass, accompanied by alterations in energy-related tissue mass. The lower efficiency of energy use was not due to uncoupling of muscle mitochondria. Enhanced lipid oxidation was observed during fasting days, whereas fed days were accompanied by higher metabolic rates. Furthermore, an increased expression of orexigenic neurotransmitters AGRP and NPY in the hypothalamus of IF animals was found, even on feeding days, which could explain the overeating pattern. Together, these effects provide a mechanistic explanation for the lower efficiency of energy conversion observed. Overall, we find that IF promotes changes in hypothalamic function that explain differences in body mass and caloric intake.

Obesogenic Environment By Excess Of Dietary Fats In Different Phases Of Development Reduces Spermatic Efficiency Of Wistar Rats At Adulthood: Correlations With Metabolic Status.

This study compares the impact of obesogenic environment (OE) in six different periods of development on sperm parameters and the testicular structure of adult rats and their correlations with sex steroid and metabolic scenario. Wistar rats were exposed to OE during gestation (O1), during gestation/lactation (O2), from weaning to adulthood (O3), from lactation to adulthood (O4), from gestation to sexual maturity (O5), and after sexual maturation (O6). OE was induced by a 20% fat diet, and control groups were fed a balanced diet (4% fat). Serum leptin levels and adiposity index indicate that all groups were obese, except for O1. Three progressive levels of impaired metabolic status were observed: O1 presented insulin resistance, O2 were insulin resistant and obese, and groups O3, O4, and O5 were insulin resistant, obese, and diabetic. These three levels of metabolic damage were proportional to the increase of leptin and decreased circulating testosterone. The impairment in the daily sperm production (DSP) paralleled these three levels of metabolic and hormonal damage being marginal in O1, increasing in O2, and being higher in groups O3, O4, O5, and O6. None of the OE periods affected the sperm transit time in the epididymis, and the lower sperm reserves were caused mainly by impaired DSP. In conclusion, OE during sexual maturation markedly reduces the DSP at adulthood in the rat. A severe reduction in the DSP also occurs in OE exposure during gestation/lactation but not in gestation, indicating that breast-feeding is a critical period for spermatogenic impairment under obesogenic conditions.

Semi-determinate Growth Habit Adjusts The Vegetative-to-reproductive Balance And Increases Productivity And Water-use Efficiency In Tomato (solanum Lycopersicum).

Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) shows three growth habits: determinate, indeterminate and semi-determinate. These are controlled mainly by allelic variation in the SELF-PRUNING (SP) gene family, which also includes the florigen gene SINGLE FLOWER TRUSS (SFT). Determinate cultivars have synchronized flower and fruit production, which allows mechanical harvesting in the tomato processing industry, whereas indeterminate ones have more vegetative growth with continuous flower and fruit formation, being thus preferred for fresh market tomato production. The semi-determinate growth habit is poorly understood, although there are indications that it combines advantages of determinate and indeterminate growth. Here, we used near-isogenic lines (NILs) in the cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) with different growth habit to characterize semi-determinate growth and to determine its impact on developmental and productivity traits. We show that semi-determinate genotypes are equivalent to determinate ones with extended vegetative growth, which in turn impacts shoot height, number of leaves and either stem diameter or internode length. Semi-determinate plants also tend to increase the highly relevant agronomic parameter Brix×ripe yield (BRY). Water-use efficiency (WUE), evaluated either directly as dry mass produced per amount of water transpired or indirectly through C isotope discrimination, was higher in semi-determinate genotypes. We also provide evidence that the increases in BRY in semi-determinate genotypes are a consequence of an improved balance between vegetative and reproductive growth, a mechanism analogous to the conversion of the overly vegetative tall cereal varieties into well-balanced semi-dwarf ones used in the Green Revolution.

G-quadruplex Formation Enhances Splicing Efficiency Of Pax9 Intron 1.

G-quadruplexes are secondary structures present in DNA and RNA molecules, which are formed by stacking of G-quartets (i.e., interaction of four guanines (G-tracts) bounded by Hoogsteen hydrogen bonding). Human PAX9 intron 1 has a putative G-quadruplex-forming region located near exon 1, which is present in all known sequenced placental mammals. Using circular dichroism (CD) analysis and CD melting, we showed that these sequences are able to form highly stable quadruplex structures. Due to the proximity of the quadruplex structure to exon-intron boundary, we used a validated double-reporter splicing assay and qPCR to analyze its role on splicing efficiency. The human quadruplex was shown to have a key role on splicing efficiency of PAX9 intron 1, as a mutation that abolished quadruplex formation decreased dramatically the splicing efficiency of human PAX9 intron 1. The less stable, rat quadruplex had a less efficient splicing when compared to human sequences. Additionally, the treatment with 360A, a strong ligand that stabilizes quadruplex structures, further increased splicing efficiency of human PAX9 intron 1. Altogether, these results provide evidences that G-quadruplex structures are involved in splicing efficiency of PAX9 intron 1.

Leaf Manganese Accumulation And Phosphorus-acquisition Efficiency.

Plants that deploy a phosphorus (P)-mobilising strategy based on the release of carboxylates tend to have high leaf manganese concentrations ([Mn]). This occurs because the carboxylates mobilise not only soil inorganic and organic P, but also a range of micronutrients, including Mn. Concentrations of most other micronutrients increase to a small extent, but Mn accumulates to significant levels, even when plants grow in soil with low concentrations of exchangeable Mn availability. Here, we propose that leaf [Mn] can be used to select for genotypes that are more efficient at acquiring P when soil P availability is low. Likewise, leaf [Mn] can be used to screen for belowground functional traits related to nutrient-acquisition strategies among species in low-P habitats.

Aplicações de cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência para o estudo de poluentes orgânicos emergentes

Emerging organic pollutants (EOP) include many environmental contaminants based on commercial products such as pharmaceuticals, personal care products, detergents, gasoline, polymers, etc. EOP may be candidates for future regulation as they offer potential risk to environmental and human health due to their continual entrance into the environment and to the fact that even the most modern wastewater treatment plants are not able to totally transform / remove these compounds. High performance liquid chromatography is recommended to separate emerging organic pollutants with characteristics of high polarity and low volatility, especially pharmaceuticals, from environmental matrices.

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Modelos de volatilidade estocástica em séries financeiras: uma aplicação para o IBOVESPA

Neste artigo apresentamos uma análise Bayesiana para o modelo de volatilidade estocástica (SV) e uma forma generalizada deste, cujo objetivo é estimar a volatilidade de séries temporais financeiras. Considerando alguns casos especiais dos modelos SV usamos algoritmos de Monte Carlo em Cadeias de Markov e o software WinBugs para obter sumários a posteriori para as diferentes formas de modelos SV. Introduzimos algumas técnicas Bayesianas de discriminação para a escolha do melhor modelo a ser usado para estimar as volatilidades e fazer previsões de séries financeiras. Um exemplo empírico de aplicação da metodologia é introduzido com a série financeira do IBOVESPA.

The effect of using mixed initiator systems on the efficiency of photopolymerization of dental resins

A study was performed in order to determine the efficiency of the simultaneous use of the photoinitiators phenylpropanedione (PPD) and camphorquinone (CQ) in the polymerization of acrylic polymers and evaluate possible mechanisms leading to synergism or antagonism. It was found that efficiencies of both initiators taken individually are higher than that of their mixture, indicating that when both dyes are used simultaneously there will be an energy transfer from the more efficient initiator (CQ) to the less efficient one (PPD). Also, there was no proof of any reaction between the amine present in the CQ formulation and the PPD excited state.

Genetic parameters for productive life traits and reproductive efficiency traits at 6 years in Nellore cattle

The objective of the present study was to estimate (co)variance components for length of productive life (LPL) and some alternative reproductive traits of 6-year-old Nellore cattle. The data set contained 57,410 records for age at first calving from Nellore females and was edited to remove animal records with uncertain paternity and cows with just one piece of calving information. Only animals with age at first calving ranging from 23 to 48 months and calving intervals between 11 and 24 months were kept for analysis. LPL and life production ( LP) were used to describe productive life. LPL was defined as the number of months a cow was kept in the herd until she was 6 years old, given that she was alive at first calving and LP was defined as total number of calves in that time. Four traits were used to describe reproductive traits: two breeding efficiencies on original scale were estimated using Wilcox and Tomar functions (BEW and BET, respectively), and two breeding efficiencies transformed (ASBEW and ASBET, respectively), using the function [arcsine (square root (BEi/100))]. Estimates of heritability for measures of LPL and LP were low and ranged from 0.04 to 0.05. Estimates of heritability for breeding efficiencies on original and transformed scales oscillated from 0.18 to 0.32. Estimates of genetic correlations ranged from -0.57 to 0.79 for LPL and other traits and from 0.28 to 0.63 for LP and other traits.

Star formation efficiency in galaxy clusters

Context. The luminous material in clusters of galaxies exists in two forms: the visible galaxies and the X-ray emitting intra-cluster medium. The hot intra-cluster gas is the major observed baryonic component of clusters, about six times more massive than the stellar component. The mass contained within visible galaxies is approximately 3% of the dynamical mass. Aims. Our aim was to analyze both baryonic components, combining X-ray and optical data of a sample of five galaxy clusters (Abell 496, 1689, 2050, 2631 and 2667), within the redshift range 0.03 < z < 0.3. We determined the contribution of stars in galaxies and the intra-cluster medium to the total baryon budget. Methods. We used public XMM-Newton data to determine the gas mass and to obtain the X-ray substructures. Using the optical counterparts from SDSS or CFHT we determined the stellar contribution. Results. We examine the relative contribution of galaxies, intra-cluster light and intra-cluster medium to baryon budget in clusters through the stellar-to-gas mass ratio, estimated with recent data. We find that the stellar-to-gas mass ratio within r(500) (the radius within which the mean cluster density exceeds the critical density by a factor of 500), is anti-correlated with the ICM temperature, which range from 24% to 6% while the temperature ranges from 4.0 to 8.3 keV. This indicates that less massive cold clusters are more prolific star forming environments than massive hot clusters.