Economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in Ireland, 2007-2015

Introduction The concept of this thesis was driven by stagnation within the Irish healthcare system. Multiple reports from pharmacy organisations had outlined possible future directions for the profession but progress was minimal, especially in comparison with other countries. The author’s directive was to evaluate the economic impact of a series of clinical pharmacy services (CPS) in hospital and community settings. Methods A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical pharmacy services in hospital patients was undertaken to gain insight into recent research in the field. Eligible studies were evaluated using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS), to establish the quality, consistency and transparency of relevant research. A retrospective analysis of an internal hospital pharmacy interventions database was conducted. A method first described by Nesbit et al. was implemented to estimate the level of cost avoidance achieved. A cost-effectiveness analysis based on data from a randomised controlled trial of a pharmacist-supervised patient self-testing (PST) of warfarin therapy is presented. Outcome measure was the incremental cost associated with six months of intervention management. A similar cost-effectiveness analysis based on previously published RCT data was used to evaluate a novel structured pharmacist review of medication in older hospitalised patients. Cost-effectiveness analysis was presented in the form of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). An ICER is an additional cost per unit effect, in the case of this study, the cost of preventing an additional non-trivial ADR in hospital. A method described by Preaud et al. was adapted to estimate the clinical and economic benefit gained from vaccination of patients by a community pharmacist in Ireland in 2013/14. Sample demographic data was obtained from a national chain of community pharmacies and applied to overall national vaccination data. Results Systematic review identified twenty studies which were eligible for inclusion. Overall, pharmacist interventions had a positive impact on hospital budgets. Only three studies (15%) were deemed to be “good-quality” studies. No ‘novel’ clinical pharmacist intervention was identified during the course of this review. Analysis of internal hospital database identified 4,257 interventions documented on 2,147 individual patients over a 12 month period. Substantial cost avoidance of €710,000 was generated over a 1 year period from the perspective of the health care provider. Mean cost avoidance of €166 per intervention was generated. The cost of providing these interventions was €82,000. Substantial net cost-benefits of €626,279 and a cost-benefit ratio of 8.64 : 1 were generated based on this evaluation of pharmacist interventions. Results from an evaluation of a novel pharmacist-led form of warfarin management indicated indicated that on a per patient basis, PST was slightly more expensive than established anticoagulant management. On a per patient basis over a six month period, PST resulted in an incremental cost of €59.08 in comparison with routine care. Overall cost of managing a patient through pharmacist-supervised PST for a six month period is €226.45. However, for this increase in cost a clinically significant improvement in care was provided. Patients achieved a significantly higher time in therapeutic range during the PST arm in comparison with routine care, (72 ± 19.7% vs 59 ± 13.5%). Difference in overall cost was minimal and PST was the dominant strategy in some scenarios examined during sensitivity analysis. Structured pharmacist review of medication was determined to be dominant in comparison to usual pharmaceutical care. Even if the healthcare payer was unwilling to pay any money for the prevention of an ADR, the intervention strategy is still likely to be cost-effective (probability of being determined cost-effective = 0.707). Implementation of pharmacist-led influenza vaccination has resulted in substantial clinical and economic benefits to the healthcare system. The majority of patients (64.9%) who availed of this service had identifiable influenza-related risk factors. Of patients with influenza-related risk factors, age ≥65 year was the most commonly cited risk factor. Pharmacist vaccination services averted a total of 848 influenza cases across all age groups during the 2013/2014 influenza season. Due to receipt of vaccination in a pharmacy setting, 444 influenza-related GP visits were prevented. In terms of more serious influenza-associated events, 11 hospitalisations and five influenza-related deaths were averted. Costs averted were approximately €305,000. These were principally wider societal-related costs associated with lost productivity. Conclusion Overall, clinical pharmacy services are adding value to the Irish healthcare system in both hospital and community settings, but provision of additional funding for new services would enable them to offer a great deal more.

Time-limited home-care reablement services for maintaining and improving the functional independence of older adults

Background: Reablement, also known as restorative care, is one possible approach to home-care services for older adults at risk of functional decline. Unlike traditional home-care services, reablement is frequently time-limited (usually six to 12 weeks) and aims to maximise independence by offering an intensive multidisciplinary, person-centred and goal-directed intervention. Objectives: To assess the effects of time-limited home-care reablement services (up to 12 weeks) for maintaining and improving the functional independence of older adults (aged 65 years or more) when compared to usual home-care or wait-list control group. Search methods: We searched the following databases with no language restrictions during April to June 2015: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); MEDLINE (OvidSP); Embase (OvidSP); PsycINFO (OvidSP); ERIC; Sociological Abstracts; ProQuest Dissertations and Theses; CINAHL (EBSCOhost); SIGLE (OpenGrey); AgeLine and Social Care Online. We also searched the reference lists of relevant studies and reviews as well as contacting authors in the field. Selection criteria: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster randomised or quasi-randomised trials of time-limited reablement services for older adults (aged 65 years or more) delivered in their home; and incorporated a usual home-care or wait-list control group. Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, extracted data, assessed the risk of bias of individual studies and considered quality of the evidence using GRADE. We contacted study authors for additional information where needed. Main results: Two studies, comparing reablement with usual home-care services with 811 participants, met our eligibility criteria for inclusion; we also identified three potentially eligible studies, but findings were not yet available. One included study was conducted in Western Australia with 750 participants (mean age 82.29 years). The second study was conducted in Norway (61 participants; mean age 79 years). We are very uncertain as to the effects of reablement compared with usual care as the evidence was of very low quality for all of the outcomes reported. The main findings were as follows. Functional status: very low quality evidence suggested that reablement may be slightly more effective than usual care in improving function at nine to 12 months (lower scores reflect greater independence; standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.30; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.53 to -0.06; 2 studies with 249 participants). Adverse events: reablement may make little or no difference to mortality at 12 months' follow-up (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.74 to 1.29; 2 studies with 811 participants) or rates of unplanned hospital admission at 24 months (RR 0.94; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.03; 1 study with 750 participants). The very low quality evidence also means we are uncertain whether reablement may influence quality of life (SMD -0.23; 95% CI -0.48 to 0.02; 2 trials with 249 participants) or living arrangements (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.34; 1 study with 750 participants) at time points up to 12 months. People receiving reablement may be slightly less likely to have been approved for a higher level of personal care than people receiving usual care over the 24 months' follow-up (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98; 1 trial, 750 participants). Similarly, although there may be a small reduction in total aggregated home and healthcare costs over the 24-month follow-up (reablement: AUD 19,888; usual care: AUD 22,757; 1 trial with 750 participants), we are uncertain about the size and importance of these effects as the results were based on very low quality evidence. Neither study reported user satisfaction with the service. Authors' conclusions: There is considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of reablement as the evidence was of very low quality according to our GRADE ratings. Therefore, the effectiveness of reablement services cannot be supported or refuted until more robust evidence becomes available. There is an urgent need for high quality trials across different health and social care systems due to the increasingly high profile of reablement services in policy and practice in several countries.

Talking about quality: exploring how ‘quality’ is conceptualized in European hospitals and healthcare systems

BACKGROUND: Conceptualization of quality of care - in terms of what individuals, groups and organizations include in their meaning of quality, is an unexplored research area. It is important to understand how quality is conceptualised as a means to successfully implement improvement efforts and bridge potential disconnect in language about quality between system levels, professions, and clinical services. The aim is therefore to explore and compare conceptualization of quality among national bodies (macro level), senior hospital managers (meso level), and professional groups within clinical micro systems (micro level) in a cross-national study. METHODS: This cross-national multi-level case study combines analysis of national policy documents and regulations at the macro level with semi-structured interviews (383) and non-participant observation (803 hours) of key meetings and shadowing of staff at the meso and micro levels in ten purposively sampled European hospitals (England, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, and Norway). Fieldwork at the meso and micro levels was undertaken over a 12-month period (2011-2012) and different types of micro systems were included (maternity, oncology, orthopaedics, elderly care, intensive care, and geriatrics). RESULTS: The three quality dimensions clinical effectiveness, patient safety, and patient experience were incorporated in macro level policies in all countries. Senior hospital managers adopted a similar conceptualization, but also included efficiency and costs in their conceptualization of quality. 'Quality' in the forms of measuring indicators and performance management were dominant among senior hospital managers (with clinical and non-clinical background). The differential emphasis on the three quality dimensions was strongly linked to professional roles, personal ideas, and beliefs at the micro level. Clinical effectiveness was dominant among physicians (evidence-based approach), while patient experience was dominant among nurses (patient-centered care, enough time to talk with patients). Conceptualization varied between micro systems depending on the type of services provided. CONCLUSION: The quality conceptualization differed across system levels (macro-meso-micro), among professional groups (nurses, doctors, managers), and between the studied micro systems in our ten sampled European hospitals. This entails a managerial alignment challenge translating macro level quality definitions into different local contexts.

Recours aux services de soutien formel par les parents immigrants d’un enfant en situation de handicap

Les parents immigrants d’un enfant en situation de handicap présentent davantage de sources de vulnérabilité que d’autres parents. Cette situation peut diminuer le temps disponible et altérer leur implication dans le programme de réadaptation de leur enfant. L’objectif de cette thèse doctorale est de déterminer les attentes et les besoins en services de soutien formel de ces parents, afin de leur proposer une aide adaptée à leurs conditions de vie, et ceci, au fur et à mesure que l’enfant grandit. D’abord, une étude de la portée des écrits scientifiques est menée dans le but de mieux cerner les connaissances existantes en lien avec le recours aux services de soutien par les parents immigrants (chapitre 1). Les vingt publications sélectionnées indiquent que l’aide pour trouver de l’information s’avère la plus requise, que ce soit au sujet de la condition de l’enfant, du fonctionnement sociosanitaire et éducatif du pays d’accueil, ou encore des services de soutien. En outre, la transmission de ces informations peut se compliquer en cas de non-maîtrise de la langue du pays d’accueil ou lorsque des interculturelles apparaissent entre les parents immigrants et les différents intervenants rencontrés. Quant au non-recours aux aides formelles, il semble principalement dû à l’inadéquation entre l’aide concrète et les attentes des parents, au soutien informel reçu, à la méconnaissance des opportunités d’obtenir des services d’aide destinés aux parents, ou encore à un épuisement non ressenti. Compte tenu du nombre restreint d’écrits scientifiques recensés, des entrevues semi-dirigées sont conduites auprès de 28 parents immigrants d’un enfant en situation de handicap dans la province du Québec (Canada) dans le cadre d’une recherche de plus grande envergure portant sur la communication avec les intervenants en petite enfance (chapitre 2). Le but de cette deuxième étude est de mieux saisir l’utilisation des services de soutien formel par les parents immigrants et les facteurs influençant leurs choix. Il faut préciser que les propos recueillis restent très centrés sur les services destinés à l’enfant. Le soutien pour recevoir des informations et l’accompagnement à la décision apparaissent comme les aides formelles les plus utilisées par les participants, suivies du soutien à l’éducation, de l’écoute active et de l’aide financière. Cinq facteurs semblent guider le recours au soutien formel qui est destiné aux parents, soit : (1) leur perception de la condition de leur enfant, (2) l’accès à l’information, (3) leurs stratégies et leur capacité d’agir, (4) l’implication du réseau informel, et (5) leur perception de leur besoin de services de soutien. Suite à ces résultats, de nouvelles entrevues semi-dirigées sont menées auprès de huit parents immigrants d’enfants d’âges différents à Montréal et à Québec. Cette démarche permet d’approfondir le thème du recours au soutien formel destiné aux parents, et ce, au fur et à mesure que l’enfant grandit (chapitre 3). Le guide d’entretien conçu pour cette étude met l’emphase sur les attentes et les besoins des parents immigrants afin d’atteindre un équilibre dans toutes les sphères de leur vie. Suite à une analyse thématique exploratoire du discours des parents et par l’application d’un modèle de stress et de coping, sept principales sources de stress sont mises en évidence : (1) le parcours migratoire, (2) la condition de l’enfant, (3) l’organisation sociosanitaire du pays d’accueil, (4) l’insertion professionnelle, (5) la relation de couple, (6) le réseau social, et (7) l’état de santé du parent. Afin de faire face à ces circonstances difficiles, les parents immigrants recourent principalement à de l’aide financière, du soutien pour obtenir des informations, de l’accompagnement à la décision, de l’aide en éducation et pour le transport. La satisfaction exprimée varie, notamment en raison des divergences entre les attentes et les services obtenus (soutien en éducation, écoute active, services de garde), ainsi qu’en termes de quantité d’aide reçue (soutien financier, informations, accompagnement à la décision). Un modèle théorique original est proposé afin d’illustrer le contexte parental en termes d’attentes, de besoins et de recours au soutien. Si certains moments de la vie de l’enfant peuvent entraîner un stress supplémentaire pour les parents (annonce du diagnostic, arrivée à l’école, transition à l’âge adulte), le parcours migratoire semble davantage expliquer le recours aux aides formelles.

Data privacy in interoperability environments – a case study in the Portuguese healthcare sector

Data sharing between organizations through interoperability initiatives involving multiple information systems is fundamental to promote the collaboration and integration of services. However, in terms of data, the considerable increase in its exposure to additional risks, require a special attention to issues related to privacy of these data. For the Portuguese healthcare sector, where the sharing of health data is, nowadays, a reality at national level, data privacy is a central issue, which needs solutions according to the agreed level of interoperability between organizations. This context led the authors to study the factors with influence on data privacy in a context of interoperability, through a qualitative and interpretative research, based on the method of case study. This article presents the final results of the research that successfully identifies 10 subdomains of factors with influence on data privacy, which should be the basis for the development of a joint protection program, targeted at issues associated with data privacy.

Integration of heterogeneous data sources and automated reasoning in healthcare and domotic IoT systems

In recent years, IoT technology has radically transformed many crucial industrial and service sectors such as healthcare. The multi-facets heterogeneity of the devices and the collected information provides important opportunities to develop innovative systems and services. However, the ubiquitous presence of data silos and the poor semantic interoperability in the IoT landscape constitute a significant obstacle in the pursuit of this goal. Moreover, achieving actionable knowledge from the collected data requires IoT information sources to be analysed using appropriate artificial intelligence techniques such as automated reasoning. In this thesis work, Semantic Web technologies have been investigated as an approach to address both the data integration and reasoning aspect in modern IoT systems. In particular, the contributions presented in this thesis are the following: (1) the IoT Fitness Ontology, an OWL ontology that has been developed in order to overcome the issue of data silos and enable semantic interoperability in the IoT fitness domain; (2) a Linked Open Data web portal for collecting and sharing IoT health datasets with the research community; (3) a novel methodology for embedding knowledge in rule-defined IoT smart home scenarios; and (4) a knowledge-based IoT home automation system that supports a seamless integration of heterogeneous devices and data sources.

Cluster Analysis To Identify Elderly People's Profiles: A Healthcare Strategy Based On Frailty Characteristics.

The new social panorama resulting from aging of the Brazilian population is leading to significant transformations within healthcare. Through the cluster analysis strategy, it was sought to describe the specific care demands of the elderly population, using frailty components. Cross-sectional study based on reviewing medical records, conducted in the geriatric outpatient clinic, Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Ninety-eight elderly users of this clinic were evaluated using cluster analysis and instruments for assessing their overall geriatric status and frailty characteristics. The variables that most strongly influenced the formation of clusters were age, functional capacities, cognitive capacity, presence of comorbidities and number of medications used. Three main groups of elderly people could be identified: one with good cognitive and functional performance but with high prevalence of comorbidities (mean age 77.9 years, cognitive impairment in 28.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities); a second with more advanced age, greater cognitive impairment and greater dependence (mean age 88.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 84.6% and mean of 7.1 comorbidities); and a third younger group with poor cognitive performance and greater number of comorbidities but functionally independent (mean age 78.5 years old, cognitive impairment in 89.6% and mean of 7.4 comorbidities). These data characterize the profile of this population and can be used as the basis for developing efficient strategies aimed at diminishing functional dependence, poor self-rated health and impaired quality of life.

[access To Basic Health Services And Associated Factors: A Population-based Study].

This study sought to identify factors involved in access to the services of a basic health unit. It is a cross-sectional, population-based study involving 101 randomly-selected families residing in the area covered by the health unit. An adult resident of each household was interviewed. The response variable was whether or not the resident frequented the health unit if he/she or anyone in the family required assistance to resolve a health issue. The independent variables investigated were service provision aspects, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, individual habits, morbidities and use of the health unit. In addition to descriptive and univariate analysis, logistic regression was applied in the multivariate analysis. The results show that access to the basic health unit is associated with the treatment received previously (OR = 3,224) with accessibility (OR = 0,146) and micro-area of residence (OR = 10,918). These findings suggest that access is related to the impressions created by the care received at the health unit and is based on experiences with the service, but can also be strongly modulated by individual aspects and factors related to the territory.

The Environment Of Professional Practice And Burnout In Nurses In Primary Healthcare.

to assess how nurses perceive autonomy, control over the environment, the professional relationship between nurses and physicians and the organizational support and correlate them with burnout, satisfaction at work, quality of work and the intention to quit work in primary healthcare. cross-sectional and correlation study, using a sample of 198 nurses. The tools used were the Nursing Work Index Revised, Maslach Burnout Inventory and a form to characterize the nurses. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics were applied and Spearman's correlation coefficient was used. the nurses assessed that the environment is partially favorable for: autonomy, professional relationship and organizational support and that the control over this environment is limited. Significant correlations were evidenced between the Nursing Work Index Revised, Maslach Burnout Inventory and the variables: satisfaction at work, quality of care and the intent to quit the job. the nurses' perceptions regarding the environment of practice are correlated with burnout, satisfaction at work, quality of care and the intent to quit the job. This study provides support for the restructuring of work processes in the primary health care environment and for communication among the health service management, human resources and occupational health areas.

A sexualidade de adolescentes vivendo com HIV: direitos e desafios para o cuidado

Sexualidade e saúde reprodutiva configuram questões relevantes para o cuidado integral à saúde de pessoas vivendo com HIV. Políticas públicas e serviços de saúde, entretanto, têm dedicado insuficiente atenção ao assunto. O objetivo deste trabalho é compreender como adolescentes e jovens soropositivos lidam com suas experiências sexuais e projetos de namoro, desejo de constituir família e de ter filhos. O estudo qualitativo entrevistou em profundidade 21 adolescentes vivendo com HIV (por transmissão vertical, sexual ou sanguínea) e 13 cuidadores de crianças e jovens, vivendo em São Paulo e em Santos, Brasil. As narrativas descrevem como aprenderam a lidar com a sexualidade e a ansiedade da revelação do diagnóstico nesse contexto. Destacam-se nas narrativas o despreparo, a desinformação sobre prevenção e a falta de apoio para lidar com a situação, assim como o estigma e a discriminação que atravessa grande parte das dificuldades relatadas. O artigo discute criticamente alguns dos desafios postos para uma adequada atenção à questão no Brasil, especialmente a consideração de jovens soropositivos como sujeitos de direitos sexuais, sugerindo diretrizes para a incorporação desta temática a um cuidado integral e humanizado de crianças e jovens vivendo com HIV.

Perfil sociodemográfico e padrão de utilização dos serviços de saúde do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), 2003- 2008

O objetivo foi analisar a evolução do perfil de utilização de serviços de saúde, entre 2003 e 2008, no Brasil e nas suas macrorregiões. Foram utilizados dados da PNAD. A utilização de serviços de saúde foi medida pela proporção de pessoas que procuraram e foram atendidas nas 2 semanas anteriores e pelos que relataram internação nos últimos 12 meses, segundo SUS e não SUS. Foram analisadas as características socioeconômicas dos usuários, o tipo de atendimento e de serviço e os motivos da procura. A proporção de indivíduos que procuraram serviços de saúde não se alterou, assim como a parcela dos que conseguiram atendimento (96%), entre 2003 e 2008. O SUS respondeu por 56,7% dos atendimentos, realizando a maior parte das internações, vacinação e consultas e somente 1/3 das consultas odontológicas. Em 2008, manteve-se o gradiente de redução de utilização de serviços de saúde SUS conforme o aumento de renda e escolaridade. Houve decréscimo da proporção dos que procuraram serviços de saúde para ações de prevenção e aumento de procura para problemas odontológicos, acidentes e lesões e reabilitação. O padrão de utilização do SUS por região esteve inversamente relacionado à proporção de indivíduos com posse de planos privados de saúde.

Inequalities in access and utilization of dental services: a cross-sectional study in an area covered by the Family Health Strategy

This cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the presence of inequalities in the access and use of dental services for people living in the coverage area of the Family Health Strategy (FHS) in Ponta Grossa, Paraná State, Brazil, and to assess individual determinants related to them. The sample consisted of 747 individuals who answered a pre-tested questionnaire. Data analysis was performed by chi-square test and Poisson regression analysis, obtaining explanatory models for recent use and, by limiting the analysis to those who sought dental care, for effective access. Results showed that 41% of the sample had recent dental visits. The lowest visit rates were observed among preschoolers and elderly people. The subjects who most identified the FHS as a regular source of dental care were children. Besides age, better socioeconomic conditions and the presence of a regular source of dental care were positively associated to recent dental visits. We identified inequalities in use and access to dental care, reinforcing the need to promote incentives to improve access for underserved populations.

A regulação assistencial e a produção do cuidado: um arranjo potente para qualificar a atenção

A produção do cuidado integral e a eqüidade são desafios na gestão do SUS. Analisou-se um arranjo da gestão municipal para a produção do cuidado implantado por meio da regulação assistencial com o objetivo de enriquecer as reflexões sobre o tema. Foi realizado estudo de caso em que os dados foram obtidos mediante observação, entrevistas, narrativas escritas e análise documental. Os sujeitos da pesquisa foram gestores e trabalhadores da Secretaria de Saúde. Como resultado destaca-se um conceito de rede viva, produzida ativamente pela construção de relações entre os trabalhadores dos diferentes serviços. Destacam-se as ações de apoio ao cuidado produzido pelas equipes, com base na regulação assistencial e na gestão dos processos de trabalho. Os resultados foram expressivos na qualificação do cuidado, na redução das filas às especialidades e na satisfação dos profissionais. Como marca do processo, evidencia-se a necessidade de enriquecer, em ato, os saberes técnicos com as tecnologias leves e os saberes produzidos em movimentos ativos da gestão para a produção do cuidado.

Brazilian scientific production on pharmaceutical care from 1990 to 2009

Brazilian scientific production on pharmaceutical care was identified based on articles indexed on the Medline, Embase, Lilacs, Web of Science and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts databases. Sixty-three articles published in both national and international journals were retrieved. With regard to authors, 72.3% were from the Southeast and South Regions, and 60.8% were affiliated to public universities. In relation to the type of studies, 85.7% were descriptive, and the most frequently researched fields were community pharmacies, hospitals and primary health care units. Articles were original in 65.1% of cases, updates in 20.6%, and reviews in 7.9%. An increase in publications commenced in 2006. In 31.7% of cases, authors had adopted a bibliographical study design, 28.6% qualitative study, 23.8% intervention, and 15.9% observational study design. The most researched subjects were elderly with chronic diseases. The importance of stimulating the conducting of experimental and qualitative studies, as well as amplifying authorship affiliated with the service area, foreign authors and with research in a wide variety of practice settings were highlighted. Despite the limited quantity of articles, an increase in their number as well as in their scope and quality is expected, so as to create further knowledge that contributes to the recognition of pharmacists' actions by patient healthcare teams.

Causas do declínio da desnutrição infantil no Brasil, 1996-2007

OBJETIVO: Estabelecer a evolução da prevalência de desnutrição na população brasileira de crianças menores de cinco anos de idade entre 1996 e 2007 e identificar os principais fatores responsáveis por essa evolução.MÉTODOS: Os dados analisados procedem de inquéritos "Demographic Health Surveys" realizados no Brasil em 1996 e 2006/7 em amostras probabilísticas de cerca de 4 mil crianças menores de cinco anos. A identificação dos fatores responsáveis pela variação temporal da prevalência da desnutrição (altura-para-idade inferior a -2 escores z; padrão OMS 2006) considerou mudanças na distribuição de quatro determinantes potenciais do estado nutricional. Modelagem estatística da associação independente entre determinante e risco de desnutrição em cada inquérito e cálculo de frações atribuíveis parciais foram utilizados para avaliar a importância relativa de cada fator na evolução da desnutrição infantil. RESULTADOS: A prevalência da desnutrição foi reduzida em cerca de 50%: de 13,5% (IC 95%: 12,1%;14,8%) em 1996 para 6,8% (5,4%;8,3%) em 2006/7. Dois terços dessa redução poderiam ser atribuídos à evolução favorável dos quatro fatores estudados: 25,7% ao aumento da escolaridade materna; 21,7% ao crescimento do poder aquisitivo das famílias; 11,6% à expansão da assistência à saúde e 4,3% à melhoria nas condições de saneamento.CONCLUSÕES: A taxa anual de declínio de 6,3% na proporção de crianças com déficits de altura-para-idade indica que em cerca de mais dez anos a desnutrição infantil poderia deixar de ser um problema de saúde pública no Brasil. A conquista desse resultado dependerá da manutenção das políticas econômicas e sociais que têm favorecido o aumento do poder aquisitivo dos mais pobres e de investimentos públicos que permitam completar a universalização do acesso da população brasileira aos serviços essenciais de educação, saúde e saneamento