Discretionary Policy in a Monetary Union with Sovereign Debt

This paper examines the interactions between multiple national fiscal policy- makers and a single monetary policy maker in response to shocks to government debt in some or all of the countries of a monetary union. We assume that national governments respond to excess debt in an optimal manner, but that they do not have access to a commitment technology. This implies that national fi scal policy gradually reduces debt: the lack of a commitment technology precludes a random walk in steady state debt, but the need to maintain national competitiveness avoids excessively rapid debt reduction. If the central bank can commit, it adjusts its policies only slightly in response to higher debt, allowing national fiscal policy to undertake most of the adjustment. However if it cannot commit, then optimal monetary policy involves using interest rates to rapidly reduce debt, with signifi cant welfare costs. We show that in these circumstances the central bank would do better to ignore national fiscal policies in formulating its policy.

Fear of model misspecifcation and the robustness premium

Robust decision making implies welfare costs or robustness premia when the approximating model is the true data generating process. To examine the importance of these premia at the aggregate level we employ a simple two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with human capital and introduce an additional form of precautionary behavior. The latter arises from the robust decision maker s ability to reduce the effects of model misspecification through allocating time and existing human capital to this end. We find that the extent of the robustness premia critically depends on the productivity of time relative to that of human capital. When the relative efficiency of time is low, despite transitory welfare costs, there are gains from following robust policies in the long-run. In contrast, high relative productivity of time implies misallocation costs that remain even in the long-run. Finally, depending on the technology used to reduce model uncertainty, we fi nd that while increasing the fear of model misspecfi cation leads to a net increase in precautionary behavior, investment and output can fall.

Confidence and Competence in Communication

This paper studies information transmission between an uninformed decision maker (receiver) and an informed player (sender) who have asymmetric beliefs ("con fidence") on the sender s ability ("competence") to observe the state of nature. We fi nd that even when the material payoffs of are perfectly aligned, the sender s over- and underconfi dence on his information give rise to information loss in communication, although they do not by themselves completely eliminate information transmission in equilibrium. However, an underconfi dent sender may prefer no communication to informative communication. We also show that when the sender is biased, overconfi dence can lead to more information transmission and welfare improvement.

Complexity and Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Problemsing.

I develop a model of endogenous bounded rationality due to search costs, arising implicitly from the problems complexity. The decision maker is not required to know the entire structure of the problem when making choices but can think ahead, through costly search, to reveal more of it. However, the costs of search are not assumed exogenously; they are inferred from revealed preferences through her choices. Thus, bounded rationality and its extent emerge endogenously: as problems become simpler or as the benefits of deeper search become larger relative to its costs, the choices more closely resemble those of a rational agent. For a fixed decision problem, the costs of search will vary across agents. For a given decision maker, they will vary across problems. The model explains, therefore, why the disparity, between observed choices and those prescribed under rationality, varies across agents and problems. It also suggests, under reasonable assumptions, an identifying prediction: a relation between the benefits of deeper search and the depth of the search. As long as calibration of the search costs is possible, this can be tested on any agent-problem pair. My approach provides a common framework for depicting the underlying limitations that force departures from rationality in different and unrelated decision-making situations. Specifically, I show that it is consistent with violations of timing independence in temporal framing problems, dynamic inconsistency and diversification bias in sequential versus simultaneous choice problems, and with plausible but contrasting risk attitudes across small- and large-stakes gambles.

The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

Monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse: étude sentinelle: panels 2008 = Monitoring der Cannabisproblematik in der Schweiz: Sentinella-Studie: Panels 2008

A l'heure actuelle, le monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse constitue un ensemble de travaux qui permettent le suivi de la situation au niveau national et qui sont mis en oeuvre par un consortium d'instituts. Ce monitoring comprend l'étude présentée dans ce rapport, l'étude sentinelle. Elle s'intéresse à l'évolution de la situation en matière de cannabis ainsi qu'à la gestion de cette situation au niveau local. Ainsi, les observations relevées par des professionnels de terrain dans différents domaines (santé/social, école/formation professionnelle, police/justice) et dans quatre cantons suisses (St Gall, Tessin, Vaud, Zurich), dits "sentinelle", sont récoltées et analysées annuellement.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Redescription of Prosthenhystera obesa (Diesing, 1850) (Callodistomidae, Digenea) with New Host Records and Data on Morphological Variability

Prosthenhystera obesa (Diesing,1850) Travassos, 1922 from the gall bladder of Astyanax bimaculatus, Caranx gibbosus, Galeocharax humeralis, Leporinus copelandii, Pimelodus fur, Pseudopimelodus roosevelti, Salminus brevidens, Salminus maxillosus and from the new hosts, Cynopotamus amazonum and Triurobrycon lundii is redescribed, demonstrating a large morphological variation, mainly in body and testes size and shape. New hosts harbouring immature specimens of P. obesa are presented: Brycon sp., Leporellus vittatus, Pachyurus squamipinnis, Pimelodus clarias, Pseudoplatystoma corruscans and Salminus hilarii. Scanning electron microscopy micrographies, original figures and measurements of adult and immature specimens from different Brazilian hosts and localities are presented

Health Impact Assessment Tool for forming recommendations

The forming recommendation tool provides a template to record the recommendations and how they will be implemented by the decision-maker

Monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse: étude sentinelle 2004-2009 = Monitoring der Cannabisproblematik in der Schweiz: Sentinella-Studie 2004-2009 = Monitoraggio della problematica della canapa in Svizzera: studio sentinella 2004-2009

Le monitoring de la problématique du cannabis en Suisse constitue un ensemble de travaux qui permet un suivi de la situation au niveau national et dont la mise en oeuvre est le fait d'un consortium d'instituts. Ce monitoring comprend l'étude présentée dans ce rapport, l'étude sentinelle. Elle s'intéresse à l'évolution de la situation en matière de cannabis ainsi qu'à la gestion de cette situation au niveau local. Ainsi, les observations relevées par des professionnels de terrain dans différents domaines (santé/social, école/formation professionnelle, police/justice) et dans quatre cantons suisses (St Gall, Tessin, Vaud, Zurich), dits "sentinelles", sont récoltées et analysées annuellement.

Aplicación de un score semiquantitativo de tac-ar para el control y evaluación del pronóstico de pacientes con fibrosis pulmonar idiopática

Estudi prospectiu amb 36 pacients, on definírem un score semiquantitatiu per a diferents patrons de FPI a la TCAR, i la suma resultant (Score Total). Estudiàrem la relació amb paràmetres funcionals i cel.lularitat del RBA, analitzant-se’n les diferències amb els pacients morts. Trobàrem correlació entre el score de bresca (honeycomb) i total amb alguns paràmetres funcionals, prova de marxa de 6 minuts i la gasometria arterial. Els morts hi tenien major score total i tendència a la neutrofília. Concluírem que un score semiquantitatiu de TCAR és útil per a valorar la gravetat inicial i preveure l’evolució de la FPI. Paraules clau: TCAR, FPI, Score semiquantitatiu, gravetat, evolució.

Metodos no invasivos de medición de la inflamación en las neumonitis por hipersensibilidad: utilidad del esputo inducido

El diagnòstic de la pneumonitis per hipersensibilitat requereix en ocasions la realització de tècniques diagnòstiques invasives que de vegades no són possibles de practicar donat el deteriorament de la capacitat funcional que presenta el pacient. L'ús de noves tècniques d'estudi de la inflamació pulmonar, a través de mètodes no invasius, podrien ser d'utilitat en el diagnòstic i seguiment d'aquesta entitat. En el present estudi, plantegem el valor de l'estudi de l'esput induït en el diagnòstic de la pneumonitis per hipersensibilitat, així com la seva possible utilitat en el context de les proves de provocació bronquial específiques.