Credibility for sale

We develop a model where a sovereign’s incentive to repay its debt depends on the identity of its creditors. Higher exposure to official lenders improves incentives and thus credibility, for instance, because default would jeopardize the benefits from membership in a club (such as EU or EMU). But higher exposure also carries costs, because of reduced flexibility ex post and because official lenders may collude to extract rents. We characterize the equilibrium composition of debt across creditor groups as well as equilibrium debt prices. Our model can account for an important— and still unexplained—feature of sovereign debt crises: Official lending to sovereigns takes place only in times of debt distress and carries a favorable rate. It also offers a novel perspective on the interaction between deficits, debt overhang and the availability of official funds in determining default risk.

Agents, Trustees, and International Courts: Nomination and Appointment of Judicial Candidates in the WTO Appellate Body

Scholars have increasingly theorized, and debated, the decision by states to create and delegate authority to international courts, as well as the subsequent autonomy and behavior of those courts, with principal–agent and trusteeship models disagreeing on the nature and extent of states’ influence on international judges. This article formulates and tests a set of principal–agent hypotheses about the ways in which, and the conditions under which, member states are able use their powers of judicial nomination and appointment to influence the endogenous preferences of international judges. The empirical analysis surveys the record of all judicial appointments to the Appellate Body (AB) of the World Trade Organization over a 15-year period. We present a view of an AB appointment process that, far from representing a pure search for expertise, is deeply politicized and offers member-state principals opportunities to influence AB members ex ante and possibly ex post. We further demonstrate that the AB nomination process has become progressively more politicized over time as member states, responding to earlier and controversial AB decisions, became far more concerned about judicial activism and more interested in the substantive opinions of AB candidates, systematically championing candidates whose views on key issues most closely approached their own, and opposing candidates perceived to be activist or biased against their substantive preferences. Although specific to the WTO, our theory and findings have implications for the judicial politics of a large variety of global and regional international courts and tribunals.

EU trade agreements and their impacts on human rights: study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

The European Union’s (EU) trade policy has a strong influence on economic development and the human rights situation in the EU’s partner countries, particularly in developing countries. The present study was commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) as a contribution to further developing appropriate methodologies for assessing human rights risks in development-related policies, an objective set in the BMZ’s 2011 strategy on human rights. The study offers guidance for stakeholders seeking to improve their knowledge of how to assess, both ex ante and ex post, the impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on poverty reduction and the right to food in ACP countries. Currently, human rights impacts are not yet systematically addressed in the trade sustainability impact assessments (trade SIAs) that the European Commission conducts when negotiating trade agreements. Nor do they focus specifically on disadvantaged groups or include other benchmarks relevant to human rights impact assessments (HRIAs). The EU itself has identified a need for action in this regard. In June 2012 it presented an Action Plan on Human Rights and Democracy that calls for the inclusion of human rights in all impact assessments and in this context explicitly refers to trade agreements. Since then, the EU has begun to slightly adapt its SIA methodology and is working to define more adequate human rights–consistent procedures. It is hoped that readers of this study will find inspiration to help contribute to this process and help improve human rights consistency of future trade options.

Sentencing Guidelines, Judicial Discretion, And Social Values

This paper studies the institutional structure of criminal sentencing, focusing on the interaction between legislatures, which set sentencing ranges ex ante, and judges, who choose actual sentences from within those ranges ex post. The key question concerns the optimal degree of judicial discretion, given the sequential nature of the process and the possibly divergent interests of legislatures and judges regarding the social function of criminal punishment. The enactment of sentencing reform in the 1970s and 80s provides both a context for the model and an opportunity to evaluate its conclusions.

La competencia discursiva y metacursiva de los alumnos que finalizan EGB1 común y especial

El presente proyecto, mediante los aportes de la psicología cognitiva, se propone investigar qué competencia discursiva logran los niños, al finalizar el primer ciclo de educación básica, común y su equivalente en educación especial. El objetivo general es: Caracterizar el nivel de desarrollo discursivo y metadiscursivo alcanzado por niños de tercer año de educación básica común y especial. A su vez, los objetivos específicos son: Establecer si los niños son capaces de efectuar reflexiones metacognitivas y metalingüísticas y también analizar si estas reflexiones inciden en el logro de una mayor competencia discursiva. La dificultad mayor de los estudios de producción del lenguaje es metodológico debido a que el investigador se enfrenta con la difícil tarea de explicar cómo experiencias internas se convierten en señales acústicas (en el habla) o visuales (en la escritura); algo que es privado y no observable (ideas, emociones, sentimientos, etc.) se transforman en algo que puede ser percibido, analizado e interpretado por otras personas, o sea un proceso que sólo es observable en su última fase: el discurso o el texto. Por ello se emplearán distintos instrumentos que permitirán abordar el “output" (externo, físico) sino también el “input" (interno, mental), que si bien trasciende el ámbito de la producción lingüística, desencadena los procesos intermedios. Estos instrumentos permitirán determinar si los niños entre 8 y 9 años, pueden realizar reflexiones metacognitivas o metalingüísticas y de qué índole son. Estos permitirán operativizar una mediación pedagógica pertinente desde la escolaridad común y especial. La investigación, de carácter aplicado y sincrónico, se realizará a cabo en dos escuelas comunes (urbanas) , una de educación especial (de débiles mentales) y con niños integrados. Se espera lograr una compresión de los procesos cognitivos que intervienen en la tarea de escribir un texto como precisar si los niños son capaces de reflexiones metacognitivas y metalingüísticas. Cada unidad de análisis será vista en sí misma, sin establecer comparaciones entre las mismas.

Political institutions and policy outcomes : effects of presidential vetoes on budget making

The article examines how the power distribution between the executive and the legislature under the Presidential system affects policy outcomes. We focus in particular on the presidential veto, both package and partial. Using a simple game theory model, we show that the presidential partial veto generally yields a result in favor of the President, but that such effects vary depending on the reversion points of the package veto and the Congress's possible use of sanctions against the President. The effects of the Presidential partial veto diminish if the reversion point meets certain conditions, or if the Congress has no power to impose sufficient sanctions on the President when the President revises the outcome ex-post. To clarify and explain the model, we present the case of budget making in the Philippines between 1994 and 2008. In the Philippines, the presidential partial veto has been bringing expenditure programs closer to the President's ideal point within what may be called the Congress's indifference curve. The Congress, however, has not always passed budget bills and from time to time has carried over the previous year's budget, in years when the budget deficit increased. This is the situation that the policy makers cannot retrieve from the reversion point.

Myopic or farsighted : bilateral trade agreements among three symmetric countries

We examine network formation via bilateral trade agreement (BTA) among three symmetric countries. Each government decides whether to form a link or not via a BTA depending on the differential of ex-post and ex-ante sum of real wages in the country. We model the governmental decision in two forms, myopic and farsighted and analyze the effects on the BTA network formation. First, we find that both myopic and farsighted games never induce the formation of star networks nor empty networks. Second, the networks resulting from myopic game coincides with those resulting from farsighted games.

Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, thereby supporting the forecasting accuracy of the VAR model. Visitor arrivals to Siem Reap and Phnom Penh airports are forecast to increase steadily in future periods, with varying fluctuations across months and origin countries of foreign tourists.

Indicadores de Riesgos Agrarios y su Gestión

Este estudio pretende desarrollar una serie de indicadores que permitan cuantificar y comparar los riesgos agrarios en distintos países, de una forma sintética e inmediata, así como la cobertura de dichos riesgos mediante seguros agrarios, y mediante programas públicos o ayudas ex-post. Los indicadores serán publicados y actualizados anualmente en internet, permitiendo así un acceso universal e internacional a esta información. Se han desarrollado tres indicadores de riesgos de rendimientos y de valor de la producción agraria bruta, de modo que cubren los riesgos medios, máximos y las pérdidas compensables según el criterio de Caja Verde de la Organización Mundial de Comercio. Los indicadores de aseguramiento describen de forma sintética tanto la extensión del seguro como el nivel de cobertura del mismo. Por último, se puede comparar el nivel de apoyo público al seguro con otras ayudas públicas relacionadas con los riesgos y calamidades agrarias a través de sendos indicadores. Los resultados obtenidos para numerosos países muestran la importancia de las tendencias en los resultados, y en general se muestran consistentes y buenos descriptores de los distintos sistemas de gestión del riesgo analizados

Evaluation of the trading development in the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market

The efficiency of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market in its first five and a half years is assessed in terms of volume, open interest and price. The continuous market shows steady liquidity growth. Its volume is strongly correlated to that of the Over The Counter (OTC) market, the amount of market makers, the enrolment of financial agents and generation companies belonging to the integrated group of last resort suppliers, and the OTC cleared volume in its clearing house. The hedging efficiency, measured through the ratio between the final open interest and the cleared volume, shows the lowest values for the Spanish base load futures as they are the most liquid contracts. The ex-post forward risk premium has diminished due to the learning curve and the effect of the fixed price retributing the indigenous coal fired generation. This market is quite less developed than the European leaders headquartered in Norway and Germany. Enrolment of more traders, mainly international energy companies, financial agents, energy intensive industries and renewable generation companies is desired. Market monitoring reports by the market operator providing post-trade transparency, OTC data access by the energy regulator, and assessment of the regulatory risk can contribute to efficiency gains.

Analysis of the Iberian Power Forward Price Formation

The price formation of the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market-the power futures market-starting in July 2006, is assessed until November 2011, through the evolution of the difference between forward and spot prices in the delivery period (“ex-post forward risk premium”) and the comparison with the forward generation costs from natural gas (“clean spark spread”). The premium tends to be positive in all existing mechanisms (futures, Over-the-Counter and auctions for catering part of the last resort supplies). Since year 2011, the values are smaller due to regulatorily recognized prices for coal power plants. The power futures are strongly correlated with European gas prices. The spreads built with prompt contracts tend also to be positive. The biggest ones are for the month contract, followed by the quarter contract and then by the year contract. Therefore, gas fired generation companies can maximize profits trading with contracts of shorter maturity.

Analysis of alternative tendering mechanisms for transportation Public-Private Partnerships

This paper describes a theoretical model based primarily on transaction costs, for comparing the various tendering mechanisms used for transportation Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects. In particular, the model contrasts negotiated procedures with the open procedure, as defined by the current European Union legislation on public tendering. The model includes both ex ante transaction costs (borne during the tendering stage) and ex post transaction costs (such as enforcement costs, re-negotiation costs, and costs arising from litigation between partners), explaining the trade-off between them. Generally speaking, it is assumed that the open procedure implies lower transaction costs ex ante, while the negotiated procedure reduces the probability of the appearance of new contingencies not foreseen in the contract, hence diminishing the expected value of transaction costs ex post. Therefore, the balance between ex ante and ex post transaction costs is the main criterion for deciding whether the open or negotiated procedure would be optimal. Notwithstanding, empirical evidence currently exists only on ex ante transaction costs in transportation infrastructure projects. This evidence has shown a relevant difference between the two procedures as far as ex ante costs are concerned, favouring the open procedure. The model developed in this paper also demonstrates that a larger degree of complexity in a contract does not unequivocally favour the use of a negotiated procedure. Only in those cases dealing with very innovative projects, where important dimensions of the quality of the asset or service are not verifiable, may we observe an advantage in favour of the negotiated procedure. The bottom line is that we find it difficult to justify the employment of negotiated procedures in most transportation PPP contracts, especially in the field of roads. Nevertheless, the field remains open for future empirical work and research on the levels of transaction costs borne ex post in PPP contracts, as well as on the probabilities of such costs appearing under any of the procurement procedures.

Niveles óptimos de calidad y costes de transacción en la contratación de servicios públicos

En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo teórico que trata de formalizar el efecto de la existencia de determinados costes de transacción sobre el diseño de un contrato óptimo entre una Administración Pública (el principal en el contrato) y un agente para la prestación de un determinado servicio público. El modelo que se plantea es aplicable a cualquier tipo de contrato para la gestión de un servicio público, siempre que utilice un mecanismo de remuneración al contratista basado en el nivel de calidad obtenido. Con estas premisas, el problema que se estudia es el de alcanzar niveles óptimos en la calidad del servicio y en los costes de transacción, en el marco de un contrato incompleto, y tomando como objetivo la maximización de una función de bienestar social. Los resultados alcanzados en el modelo muestran que el nivel óptimo de los costes de transacción ex ante (es decir, previos a la firma del contrato) viene determinado por el parámetro que representa la actitud ante el riesgo del contratista: a mayor aversión al riesgo de éste, mayores serán los costes de transacción y menor la varianza de los costes de producción del servicio, en la situación óptima. Por otra parte, los niveles de calidad óptimos y el peso de la remuneración al contratista basada en los niveles de calidad, serán mayores cuanto más elevados sean los beneficios sociales marginales de cada una de las dimensiones de la calidad del servicio, y disminuirán al aumentar el coste marginal de los recursos públicos. Los costes de transacción ex post , derivados de la necesidad de medir y controlar los niveles de calidad alcanzados por el contratista, determinan en el modelo las dimensiones de la calidad en que debe centrarse el sistema de remuneración del contratista, eliminando aquellas en que no está justificado establecer un sistema de medición y control, lo que reduce el nivel total de calidad alcanzado respecto al que resultaría en condiciones de costes de transacción nulos

Evaluación de los co-beneficios sobre el desarrollo sostenible y la reducción de la pobreza de proyectos de mitigación del cambio climático en Brasil

El cambio climático y los diferentes aspectos del concepto de “desarrollo” están intrínsecamente interconectados. Por un lado, el desarrollo económico de nuestras sociedades ha contribuido a un aumento insostenible de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, las cuales están desestabilizando el sistema climático global, generando al mismo tiempo una distribución desigual de la capacidad de las personas para hacer frente a estos cambios. Por otro lado, en la actualidad existe un amplio consenso sobre que el cambio climático impacta directamente y de manera negativa sobre el denominando desarrollo sostenible. De igual manera, cada vez existe un mayor consenso de que el cambio climático va a desafiar sustancialmente nuestra capacidad de erradicar la pobreza a medio y largo plazo. Ante esta realidad, no cabe duda de que las estrategias de adaptación son esenciales para mantener el desarrollo. Es por esto que hasta el momento, los mayores esfuerzos realizados por unir las agendas globales de la lucha contra la pobreza y del cambio climático se han dado en el entorno de la adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, cada vez son más los actores que defienden, desde distintos escenarios, que existen sinergias entre la mitigación de emisiones y la mejora de las condiciones de vida de las poblaciones más vulnerables, favoreciendo así un “desarrollo sostenible” sin disminuir los recursos financieros destinados a la adaptación. Para hacer efectivo este potencial, es imprescindible identificar diseños de estrategias de mitigación que incrementen los resultados de desarrollo, contribuyendo al desarrollo sostenible al mismo tiempo que a reducir la pobreza. En este contexto se sitúa el objetivo principal de esta investigación, consistente en analizar los co-beneficios locales, para el desarrollo sostenible y la reducción la pobreza, de proyectos de mitigación del cambio climático que se implementan en Brasil. Por co-beneficios se entienden, en el lenguaje de las discusiones internacionales de cambio climático, aquellos beneficios que van más allá de la reducción de emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) intrínsecas por definición a los proyectos de mitigación. Los proyectos de mitigación más relevantes hasta el momento bajo el paraguas de la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climático (CMNUCC), son los denominados Mecanismos de Desarrollo Limpio (MDL) del Protocolo de Kioto. Sin embargo, existen alternativas de proyectos de mitigación (tales como los denominados “estándares adicionales” a los MDL de los Mercados Voluntarios de Carbono y las Tecnologías Sociales), que también serán tenidos en cuenta en el marco de este estudio. La elección del tema se justifica por la relevancia del mismo en un momento histórico en el que se está decidiendo el futuro del régimen climático a partir del año 2020. Aunque en el momento de redactar este documento, todavía no se ha acordado la forma que tendrán los futuros instrumentos de mitigación, sí que se sabe que los co-beneficios de estos instrumentos serán tan importantes, o incluso más, que las reducciones de GEI que generan. Esto se debe, principalmente, a las presiones realizadas en las negociaciones climáticas por parte de los países menos desarrollados, para los cuales el mayor incentivo de formar parte de dichas negociaciones se basa principalmente en estos potenciales co-beneficios. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran alrededor de tres preguntas de investigación: ¿cómo están contribuyendo los MDL implementados en Brasil a generar co-beneficios que fomenten el desarrollo sostenible y reduzcan la pobreza?; ¿existen proyectos de mitigación en Brasil que por tener compromisos más exigentes en cuanto a su contribución al desarrollo sostenible y/o la reducción de la pobreza que los MDL estén siendo más eficientes que estos en relación a los co-beneficios que generan?; y ¿qué características de los proyectos de mitigación pueden resultar críticas para potenciar sus co-beneficios en las comunidades en las que se implementan? Para dar respuesta a estas preguntas, se ha desarrollado durante cuatro años una labor de investigación estructurada en varias fases y en la que se combinan diversas metodologías, que abarcan desde el desarrollo de un modelo de análisis de cobeneficios, hasta la aplicación del mismo tanto a nivel documental sobre 194 documentos de diseño de proyecto (denominado análisis ex-ante), como a través de 20 casos de estudio (denominado análisis ex-post). Con la realización de esta investigación, se ha confirmado que los requisitos existentes hasta el momento para registrar un proyecto como MDL bajo la CMNUCC no favorecen sustancialmente la generación de co-beneficios locales para las comunidades en las que se implementan. Adicionalmente, se han identificado prácticas y factores, que vinculadas a las actividades intrínsecas de los proyectos de mitigación, son efectivas para incrementar sus co-beneficios. Estas prácticas y factores podrán ser tenidas en cuenta tanto para mejorar los requisitos de los actuales proyectos MDL, como para apoyar la definición de los nuevos instrumentos climáticos. ABSTRACT Climate change and development are inextricably linked. On the one hand, the economic development of our societies has contributed to the unsustainable increase of Green House Gases emissions, which are destabilizing the global climate system while fostering an unequal distribution of people´s ability to cope with these changes. On the other hand, there is now a consensus that climate change directly impacts the so-called sustainable development. Likely, there is a growing agreement that climate change will substantially threaten our capacity to eradicate poverty in the medium and long term. Given this reality, there is no doubt that adaptation strategies are essentials to keep development. This is why, to date, much of the focus on poverty in the context of climate change has been on adaptation However, without diverting resources from adaptation, there may exist the potential to synergize efforts to mitigate emissions, contribute to sustainable development and reduce poverty. To fulfil this potential, it is key identifying how mitigation strategies can also support sustainable development and reduce poverty. In this context, the main purpose of this investigation is to explore the co-benefits, for sustainable development and for poverty reduction, of climate change mitigation projects being implemented in Brazil. In recent years the term co-benefits, has been used by policy makers and academics to refer the potentially large and diverse range of collateral benefits that can be associated with climate change mitigation policies in addition to the direct avoided climate impact benefits. The most relevant mitigation projects developed during the last years under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are the so-called Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, this research will analyse this official mechanism. However, there are alternatives to the mitigation projects (such as the "add-on standards" of the Voluntary Carbon Markets, and the Social Technologies) that will also be assessed as part of the research. The selection of this research theme is justified because its relevance in a historic moment in which proposals for a future climate regime after 2020 are being negotiated. Although at the moment of writing this document, there is not a common understanding on the shape of the new mitigation instruments, there is a great agreement about the importance of the co-benefits of such instruments, which may be even more important for the Least Developed Countries that their expected greenhouse gases emissions reductions. The results of the thesis are structured around three research questions: how are the CDM projects being implemented in Brazil generating local co-benefits that foster sustainable development and poverty reduction?; are other mitigation projects in Brazil that due to their more stringent sustainable development and/o poverty reduction criteria, any more successful at delivering co-benefits than regular CDM projects?; and what are the distinguishing characteristics of mitigation projects that are successful at delivering co-benefits? To answer these research questions, during four years it has been developed a research work structured in several phases and combining various methodologies. Those methodologies cover from the development of a co-benefits assessment model, to the application of such model both to a desktop analysis of 194 project design documents, and to 20 case studies using field data based on site visits to the project sites. With the completion of this research, it has been confirmed that current requirements to register a CDM project under the UNFCCC not substantially favour co-benefits at the local level. In addition, some practices and factors enablers of co-benefits have been identified. These characteristics may be taken into consideration to improve the current CDM and to support the definition of the new international market mechanisms for climate mitigation.