From the traditional verification approach to the spatial methods: a study of applicability of the SAL metric in the framework of the WMO project MesoVICT

Increasing in resolution of numerical weather prediction models has allowed more and more realistic forecasts of atmospheric parameters. Due to the growing variability into predicted fields the traditional verification methods are not always able to describe the model ability because they are based on a grid-point-by-grid-point matching between observation and prediction. Recently, new spatial verification methods have been developed with the aim of show the benefit associated to the high resolution forecast. Nested in among of the MesoVICT international project, the initially aim of this work is to compare the newly tecniques remarking advantages and disadvantages. First of all, the MesoVICT basic examples, represented by synthetic precipitation fields, have been examined. Giving an error evaluation in terms of structure, amplitude and localization of the precipitation fields, the SAL method has been studied more thoroughly respect to the others approaches with its implementation in the core cases of the project. The verification procedure has concerned precipitation fields over central Europe: comparisons between the forecasts performed by the 00z COSMO-2 model and the VERA (Vienna Enhanced Resolution Analysis) have been done. The study of these cases has shown some weaknesses of the methodology examined; in particular has been highlighted the presence of a correlation between the optimal domain size and the extention of the precipitation systems. In order to increase ability of SAL, a subdivision of the original domain in three subdomains has been done and the method has been applied again. Some limits have been found in cases in which at least one of the two domains does not show precipitation. The overall results for the subdomains have been summarized on scatter plots. With the aim to identify systematic errors of the model the variability of the three parameters has been studied for each subdomain.

Introducing a pilot data collection model for real-time evaluation of data redundancy

In order to reduce serious health incidents, individuals with high risks need to be identified as early as possible so that effective intervention and preventive care can be provided. This requires regular and efficient assessments of risk within communities that are the first point of contacts for individuals. Clinical Decision Support Systems CDSSs have been developed to help with the task of risk assessment, however such systems and their underpinning classification models are tailored towards those with clinical expertise. Communities where regular risk assessments are required lack such expertise. This paper presents the continuation of GRiST research team efforts to disseminate clinical expertise to communities. Based on our earlier published findings, this paper introduces the framework and skeleton for a data collection and risk classification model that evaluates data redundancy in real-time, detects the risk-informative data and guides the risk assessors towards collecting those data. By doing so, it enables non-experts within the communities to conduct reliable Mental Health risk triage.

Evaluation of isoprene degradation in the detailed tropospheric chemical mechanism, MCM v3, using environmental chamber data

The isoprene degradation mechanism included in version 3 of the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3) has been evaluated and refined, using the Statewide Air Pollution Research Center (SAPRC) environmental chamber datasets on the photo-oxidation of isoprene and its degradation products, methacrolein (MACR) and methylvinyl ketone (MVK). Prior to this, the MCM v3 butane degradation chemistry was also evaluated using chamber data on the photo-oxidation of butane, and its degradation products, methylethyl ketone (MEK), acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) and formaldehyde (HCHO), in conjunction with an initial evaluation of the chamber-dependent auxiliary mechanisms for the series of relevant chambers. The MCM v3 mechanisms for both isoprene and butane generally performed well and were found to provide an acceptable reaction framework for describing the NOx-photo-oxidation experiments on the above systems, although a number of parameter modifications and refinements were identified which resulted in an improved performance. All these relate to the magnitude of sources of free radicals from organic chemical process, such as carbonyl photolysis rates and the yields of radicals from the reactions of O3 with unsaturated oxygenates, and specific recommendations are made for refinements. In addition to this, it was necessary to include a representation of the reactions of O(3P) with isoprene, MACR and MVK (which were not previously treated in MCM v3), and conclusions are drawn concerning the required extent of free radical formation from these reactions. Throughout the study, the performance of MCM v3 was also compared with that of the SAPRC-99 mechanism, which was developed and optimized in conjunction with the chamber datasets.

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

User interaction monitoring and analysis framework

An overview is given of a user interaction monitoring and analysis framework called BaranC. Monitoring and analysing human-digital interaction is an essential part of developing a user model as the basis for investigating user experience. The primary human-digital interaction, such as on a laptop or smartphone, is best understood and modelled in the wider context of the user and their environment. The BaranC framework provides monitoring and analysis capabilities that not only records all user interaction with a digital device (e.g. smartphone), but also collects all available context data (such as from sensors in the digital device itself, a fitness band or a smart appliances). The data collected by BaranC is recorded as a User Digital Imprint (UDI) which is, in effect, the user model and provides the basis for data analysis. BaranC provides functionality that is useful for user experience studies, user interface design evaluation, and providing user assistance services. An important concern for personal data is privacy, and the framework gives the user full control over the monitoring, storing and sharing of their data.

A pro-active and dynamic prediction assistance using BaranC framework

Monitoring user interaction activities provides the basis for creating a user model that can be used to predict user behaviour and enable user assistant services. The BaranC framework provides components that perform UI monitoring (and collect all associated context data), builds a user model, and supports services that make use of the user model. In this case study, a Next-App prediction service is built to demonstrate the use of the framework and to evaluate the usefulness of such a prediction service. Next-App analyses a user's data, learns patterns, makes a model for a user, and finally predicts based on the user model and current context, what application(s) the user is likely to want to use. The prediction is pro-active and dynamic; it is dynamic both in responding to the current context, and also in that it responds to changes in the user model, as might occur over time as a user's habits change. Initial evaluation of Next-App indicates a high-level of satisfaction with the service.

A next application prediction service using the BaranC framework

Predicting user behaviour enables user assistant services provide personalized services to the users. This requires a comprehensive user model that can be created by monitoring user interactions and activities. BaranC is a framework that performs user interface (UI) monitoring (and collects all associated context data), builds a user model, and supports services that make use of the user model. A prediction service, Next-App, is built to demonstrate the use of the framework and to evaluate the usefulness of such a prediction service. Next-App analyses a user's data, learns patterns, makes a model for a user, and finally predicts, based on the user model and current context, what application(s) the user is likely to want to use. The prediction is pro-active and dynamic, reflecting the current context, and is also dynamic in that it responds to changes in the user model, as might occur over time as a user's habits change. Initial evaluation of Next-App indicates a high-level of satisfaction with the service.

Length of Stay in Intensive Care Units - A Case Base Evaluation

As a matter of fact, an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) stands for a hospital facility where patients require close observation and monitoring. Indeed, predicting Length-of-Stay (LoS) at ICUs is essential not only to provide them with improved Quality-of-Care, but also to help the hospital management to cope with hospital resources. Therefore, in this work one`s aim is to present an Artificial Intelligence based Decision Support System to assist on the prediction of LoS at ICUs, which will be centered on a formal framework based on a Logic Programming acquaintance for knowledge representation and reasoning, complemented with a Case Based approach to computing, and able to handle unknown, incomplete, or even contradictory data, information or knowledge.

Evaluation of most promising options for the C1 to C2-coupling: alternative formate coupling

This thesis work contains an overview of potential alternative options to couple formate produced from CO2 with other coupling partners than formate itself. Ultimately, the intent is to produce high value chemicals from CO2 at a high selectivity and conversion, whilst keeping the required utility of electrons in the electrochemical CO2 conversion at a minimum. To select and find new coupling partners, a framework was developed upon which a broad variety of candidates were assessed and ranked. A multi-stage process was used to select first potential classes of molecules. For each class, a variety of commercially available compounds was analysed in depth for its potential suitability in the reaction with the active carbonite intermediate. This analysis has shown that a wide variety of factors come into play and especially the reactivity of the hydride catalyst poses a mayor challenge. The three major potential classes of compounds suitable for the coupling are carbon oxides (CO2 & CO), and aldehydes. As a second step the remaining options were ranked to identify which compound to test first. In this ranking the reactants sustainability, ease of commercial operation and commercial attractiveness of the compound were considered. The highest-ranking compounds that proposed the highest potential are CO2, benzaldehyde and para-formaldehyde. In proof-of-principle experiments CO2 could successfully be incorporated in the form of carbonate, oxalate and potentially formate. The overall incorporation efficiency based on the hydride consumption was shown to be 50%. It is suggested to continue this work with mechanistic studies to understand the reaction in detail as, based on further gained knowledge, the reaction can then be optimized towards optimal CO2 incorporation in the form of oxalate.

Evaluation of seismic losses of RC buildings: the case of the industrial areas after the 2012 Emilia Earthquake

The topic of seismic loss assessment not only incorporates many aspects of the earthquake engineering, but also entails social factors, public policies and business interests. Because of its multidisciplinary character, this process may be complex to challenge, and sound discouraging to neophytes. In this context, there is an increasing need of deriving simplified methodologies to streamline the process and provide tools for decision-makers and practitioners. This dissertation investigates different possible applications both in the area of modelling of seismic losses, both in the analysis of observational seismic data. Regarding the first topic, the PRESSAFE-disp method is proposed for the fast evaluation of the fragility curves of precast reinforced-concrete (RC) structures. Hence, a direct application of the method to the productive area of San Felice is studied to assess the number of collapses under a specific seismic scenario. In particular, with reference to the 2012 events, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined. The outcomes of the framework are promising, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. Furthermore, a simplified displacement-based methodology is outlined to estimate different loss performance metrics for the decision-making phase of the seismic retrofit of a single RC building. The aim is to evaluate the seismic performance of different retrofit options, for a comparative analysis of their effectiveness and the convenience. Finally, a contribution to the analysis of the observational data is presented in the last part of the dissertation. A specific database of losses of precast RC buildings damaged by the 2012 Earthquake is created. A statistical analysis is performed, allowing deriving several consequence functions. The outcomes presented may be implemented in probabilistic seismic risk assessments to forecast the losses at the large scale. Furthermore, these may be adopted to establish retrofit policies to prevent and reduce the consequences of future earthquakes in industrial areas.

Strength and ductility of corroded strands within the framework of safety assessment of existing bridges

Existing bridges built in the last 50 years face challenges due to states far different than those envisaged when they were designed, due to increased loads, ageing of materials, and poor maintenance. For post-tensioned bridges, the need emerged for reliable engineering tools for the evaluation of their capacity in case of steel corrosion due to lack of mortar injection. This can lead to sudden brittle collapses, highlighting the need for proper maintenance and monitoring. This thesis proposes a peak strength model for corroded strands, introducing a “group coefficient” that aims at considering corrosion variability in the wires constituting the strands. The application of the introduced model in a deterministic approach leads to the proposal of strength curves for corroded strands, which represent useful engineering tools for estimating their maximum strength considering both geometry of the corrosion and steel material parameters. Together with the proposed ultimate displacement curves, constitutive laws of the steel material reduced by the effects of corrosion can be obtained. The effects of corroded strands on post-tensioned beams can be evaluated through the reduced bending moment-curvature diagram accounting for these reduced stress-strain relationships. The application of the introduced model in a probabilistic approach allows to estimate peak strength probability functions and consecutive design-oriented safety factors to consider corrosion effects in safety assessment verifications. Both approaches consider two procedures that are based on the knowledge level of the corrosion in the strands. On the sidelines of this main research line, this thesis also presents a study of a seismic upgrading intervention of a case-study bridge through HDRB isolators providing a simplified procedure for the identification of the correct device. The study also investigates the effects due to the variability of the shear modulus of the rubber material of the HDRB isolators on the structural response of the isolated bridge.

Evaluation Of The Radiopacity Of Esthetic Root Canal Posts.

The radiopacity of esthetic root canal posts may impair the assessment of their fit to the root canal when using radiographic images. This study determined in vitro the radiographic density of esthetic root canal posts using digital images. Thirty-six roots of human maxillary canines were assigned to six groups (N=6 per group): Reforpost (RP); Aestheti-Plus (AP); Reforpost MIX (RPM); D.T. Light Post (LP); Reforpost Radiopaque (RPR); and White Post DC (WP). Standardized digital images of the posts were obtained in different conditions: outside the root canal, inside the canal before and after cementation using luting material, and with a tissue simulator. Analysis of variance was used to compare the radiopacity mean values among the posts outside the root canal and among the posts under the other conditions, and the t unpaired test to compare the radiopacity between the posts and the dentin, and between the posts and the root canal space. There was no statistically significant difference in radiopacity between RP and RPM, and LP and WP. AP posts showed radiopacity values significantly lower than those for dentin. No statistically significant difference was found between posts (RP and AP) and the root canal space. A statistically significant difference was observed between the luted and non-luted posts; additionally, luted posts with and without tissue simulator showed no significant differences. Most of the cement-luted posts analyzed in this study were distinguishable from the density of adjacent dentin surfaces, allowing radiographic confirmation of the fit of the post in the canal. The success of using esthetic root canal posts depends mainly on the fit of the post within the canal.[1] The radiopacity of a post allows for radiographic imaging to be used to determine the fit, an important factor in a clinical perspective.

Otoneurological Evaluation: Current Good Practice.

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Endoscopic Endonasal Transsphenoidal Resection Of Pituitary Adenomas: Preliminary Evaluation Of Consecutive Cases.

Endoscopic endonasal transsphenoidal surgery has gained increasing acceptance by otolaryngologists and neurosurgeons. In many centers throughout the world, this technique is now routinely used for the same indications as conventional microsurgical technique for pituitary tumors. To present a surgical experience of consecutive endoscopic endonasal trans-sphenoidal resections of pituitary adenomas. In this study, consecutive patients with pituitary adenomas submitted to endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery were evaluated regarding the rate of residual tumor, functional remission, symptoms relief, complications, and tumor size. Forty-seven consecutive patients were evaluated; 17 had functioning adenomas, seven had GH producing tumors, five had Cushing's disease, and five had prolactinomas. Of the functioning adenomas, 12 were macroadenomas and five were microadenomas; 30 cases were non-functioning macroadenomas. Of the patients with functioning adenomas, 87% improved. 85% of the patients with visual deficits related to optic nerve compression progressed over time. Most of the patients with complaints of headaches improved (76%). Surgical complications occurred in 10% of patients, which included with two carotid lesions, two cerebrospinal fluid leaks, and one death of a patient with a previous history of complications. Endoscopic endonasal pituitary surgery is a feasible technique, yielding good surgical and functional outcomes, and low morbidity.

Microbial Evaluation Of Traumatized Teeth Treated With Triple Antibiotic Paste Or Calcium Hydroxide With 2% Chlorhexidine Gel In Pulp Revascularization.

Revascularization outcome depends on microbial elimination because apical repair will not happen in the presence of infected tissues. This study evaluated the microbial composition of traumatized immature teeth and assessed their reduction during different stages of the revascularization procedures performed with 2 intracanal medicaments. Fifteen patients (7-17 years old) with immature teeth were submitted to the revascularization procedures; they were divided into 2 groups according to the intracanal medicament used: TAP group (n = 7), medicated with a triple antibiotic paste, and CHP group (n = 8), dressed with calcium hydroxide + 2% chlorhexidine gel. Samples were taken before any treatment (S1), after irrigation with 6% NaOCl (S2), after irrigation with 2% chlorhexidine (S3), after intracanal dressing (S4), and after 17% EDTA irrigation (S5). Cultivable bacteria recovered from the 5 stages were counted and identified by means of polymerase chain reaction assay (16S rRNA). Both groups had colony-forming unit counts significantly reduced after S2 (P < .05); however, no significant difference was found between the irrigants (S2 and S3, P = .99). No difference in bacteria counts was found between the intracanal medicaments used (P = .95). The most prevalent bacteria detected were Actinomyces naeslundii (66.67%), followed by Porphyromonas endodontalis, Parvimonas micra, and Fusobacterium nucleatum, which were detected in 33.34% of the root canals. An average of 2.13 species per canal was found, and no statistical correlation was observed between bacterial species and clinical/radiographic features. The microbial profile of infected immature teeth is similar to that of primarily infected permanent teeth. The greatest bacterial reduction was promoted by the irrigation solutions. The revascularization protocols that used the tested intracanal medicaments were efficient in reducing viable bacteria in necrotic immature teeth.