Official Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets: A DCC Approach with Exogenous Variables

This paper assesses the impact of official central bank interventions (CBIs) on exchange rate returns, their volatility and bilateral correlations. By exploiting the recent publication of intervention data by the Bank of England, this study is able to investigate fficial interventions by a total number of four central banks, while the previous studies have been limited to three (the Federal Reserve, Bundesbank and Bank of Japan). The results of the existing literature are reappraised and refined. In particular, unilateral CBI is found to be more successful than coordinated CBI. The likely implications of these findings are then discussed.

Modelling Breaks and Clusters in the Steady States of Macroeconomic Variables

Macroeconomists working with multivariate models typically face uncertainty over which (if any) of their variables have long run steady states which are subject to breaks. Furthermore, the nature of the break process is often unknown. In this paper, we draw on methods from the Bayesian clustering literature to develop an econometric methodology which: i) finds groups of variables which have the same number of breaks; and ii) determines the nature of the break process within each group. We present an application involving a five-variate steady-state VAR.

Human leptospirosis in a slum area in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a serological and epidemiological study

A serologic survey was carried out on slum dwellers in the city of Rio de Janeiro. A total of 259 serum samples from male and female individuals of different age groups were tested for the presence of antileptospire antibodies by microagglutination. Prevalence data were analyzed in relation to the major risk factors present at the site, mainly represented by the presence of carrier animals and the occurence of frequent floods. Of the samples tested, 25% reacted with antigens of different serogroups at titres ranging from 1:100 to 1:6400, with a predominance of titres <= 1:400; 35% of positive sera reacted with leptospirae of the Icterohaemorrhagiae serogroup. Reactions with Djasiman, Panama, Javanica, Canicola, Pyrogenes, Australis, Ballum, Sejroe, Bataviae, Grippotyphosa, Autumnalis and Cynopteri were also detected, though at lower frequencies. There was no statistically significant difference between sexes, but higher prevalence rates were found to be associated with increasing age. A focus of infection was characterized, in which social and economic factors contribute to the persistance of leptospirae by favoring the proliferation of the main reservoir.

Hàbits alimentaris en nens de 8 a 12 anys de la comarca d'Osona

Introducció: La dieta mediterrània és considerada un dels patrons alimentaris més saludables ja que diversos estudis epidemiològics mostren que protegeix front diverses malalties cròniques com ara les malalties cardiovasculars, la diabetis i alguns càncers. Malauradament al nostre país els patrons alimentaris estan canviant a conseqüència de la modernització de la societat i estan portant a l’allunyament del patró de dieta mediterrània. Això és especialment crític entre la població infantil i juvenil, fet que predisposa a que en un futur augmenti la prevalença de malalties cròniques entre la població adulta. Objectiu: avaluar els hàbits alimentaris i l’estat nutricional d’escolars de 8 a 12 anys de la comarca d’Osona. Mètodes: estudi de disseny observacional i transversal. La mostra estava constituïda per 191 escolars de 4rt i 5è d’ensenyança primària d’escoles de la comarca d’Osona. La informació sobre la dieta es va recollir a través d’una enquesta alimentària, un recordatori de 24 hores, un qüestionari de freqüència de consum alimentari i el test KIDMED. Les determinacions antropomètriques que es van realitzar van ser talla, pes, IMC (Índex de Massa Corporal), plec tricipital, perímetre braquial i perímetre abdominal. L’anàlisi estadística de totes les dades es va portar a terme mitjançant el programa estadístic SPSS per Windows versió 12.0. Resultats: quan es valora la qualitat de l’esmorzar, s’observa que només en el 16.8% dels casos la qualitat era bona, en el 68.6% dels casos la qualitat havia de millorar i en el 12.6% era de qualitat insuficient i en el 2.1% era de mala qualitat. També s’observa que la dieta que segueixen és desequilibrada quantitativament, concretament és baixa en hidrats de carboni, rica en greixos i lleugerament elevada en proteïnes. L’anàlisi qualitativa mostra que hi ha un molt baix consum de verdures i hortalisses i de fruita, mentre que s’arriba a les racions recomanades de carnis i d’olis i greixos. El test KIDMED mostra una puntuació mitjana de 7.21±1.96 punts, el que indica que la dieta de la població és de qualitat millorable. Pel que fa a l’estat nutricional s’observa que un 24,6% presenta valors de baix pes i un 17,8% sobrepès o obesitat, el que indica que un 42,4% de la població estudiada presenta un estat nutricional incorrecte. Conclusions: La dieta del col·lectiu estudiat s’allunya de les recomanacions de la SENC (Sociedad Española de Nutrición Comunitaria). Els resultats del test KIDMED indiquen que només un 44% de la població segueix un patró òptim de Dieta mediterrània i l’anàlisi de l’estat nutricional mostra que un 42,4% presenta un estat nutricional incorrecte, sigui per excés o per defecte de pes. Per tant, es fa necessari dissenyar estratègies d’educació alimentària adequades per millorar els hàbits alimentaris dels escolars i aconseguir en un futur un estat òptim de salut.

Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables

This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A wide range of approaches are surveyed which aim to overcome the resulting problems. We stress the related themes of prior shrinkage, model averaging and model selection. Subsequently, we consider a particular modelling approach in detail. This involves the use of dynamic model selection methods with large TVP-VARs. A forecasting exercise involving a large US macroeconomic data set illustrates the practicality and empirical success of our approach.

Epidemiological and nosological aspects of Leishmania naiffi Lainson & Shaw, 1989

Leismania naiffi was isolated from 10 out of 64 armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) examined in Amazonas, Pará and Rondônia States in the Brazilian Amazon Region. The isolates were obtained in culture from samples of liver (3), spleen (3), lymph nodes (2), skin (1) and blood (1) from the infected animals. Heavy infections with the same parasite were detected for the first time in Psychodopygus squamiventris, a common man-biting phlebotomine, in amazonas and Pará. A new case of cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by L. naiffi is described from the Manaus area, making a total of three known cases of human infection by this parasite.

The epidemiological significance of Chagas' disease in womem

Little is known about the risks associated with Trypanosoma cruzi infection in non-pregnant and pregnant women. From a limited number of studies it appears that in rural areas, parasite rates and rates of serological positivity are similar in both sexes. Abnormal ECG tracings are consistently more frequent in men suggesting that immunity to T. cruzi may be different in females. Complications arising from Chagas' disease in pregnancy are only infrequently reported. Evidence for increased risk of abortion or prematurity is inconclusive except in cases of congenital infection. Most cases of congenital Chagas' disease have been reported from non-endemic areas and there is a suggestion that parasitemic episodes during pregnancy may influence pregnancy outcome. Preliminary evidence indicates that chronic infection can result in in-utero sensitization via passively acquired maternal antibodies. The review concludes that maternal T. cruzi infection carries risks for the child and these warrant systematic research because of their public health significance.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.

Epidemiological risk sratification of malaria in the Américas

During the last years, malaria had a significant increase in Latin America, emerging again as one critical health problem in the Region of the Americas. More than 1.04 million new cases were reported in 1990. This resurgence of malaria needed a comprehensive strategy for its prevention and control. National malaria control programs recognized the epidemiological stratification of malaria as a valuable method to assist them in the recognition of local variations and factors that specifically contribute to the level and intensity of transmission in critical malarious areas. Also it serves as a useful instrument for the selection of needed malaria prevention and control activities. The principal feature of this approach is to provide a dynamic and ongoing process for assessing in the epidemiological importance of different risk factors (socio-economic, ecological, organizatuion of health services) in malaria transmission. health interventions are based on this assesment and are aimed directly at the reduction or elimination of the identified risk factors operating at the local level. Intersectorial co-participation and the integration of malaria programs in local health services are also important aspects of this public health approach.

Evaluation of a colorimetric Babesia bigemina-DNA probe within an epidemiological survey

An epidemiological survey was conducted in south east Mexico, in an effort to establish the serological reactivity and carrier status to Babesia bigemina of an indigenous cattle population. The prevalance was obtained through the Indirect Fluorescent Antibody Test (IFAT), using an in vitro culture-derived B. bigemina antigen. A specific, digoxigenin-coupled, ~6kb B. bigemina-DNA probe (BBDP), was used to indicate the presence of the parasite. Serum samples from 925 animals of all ages, were obtained within the three regions (I, II, III) of the state of Yucatan and tested by IFAT. In addition, whole blood samples draw from 136 of the same animals of region II were analyzed using the BBDP. Positive IFAT (IFAT+) reactions were observed in 531 sera for a 57% overall prevalence. Regional values were: I = 157 + (56%), II = 266 + (68%) and III = 108 + (42%). Only 32 (23%) of the blood samples tested with BBDP showed distinctive hybridization signal, in contrast with 100 (73%) IFAT + animals. The responses distribution for IFAT vs. BBDP was: +/+ 23, +/- 77, -/+ 9 and -/- 27 respectively. It was found that the analytical sinsitivity of BBDP appears to be low for its utilization is widespread epidemiological surveys. It was considered, however, that the colorimetric probe mifht to be useful to safely detect transmission prone carriers, since it is able to detect parasitemias as low as 0.001%.

Epidemiological distribution of Plasmodium falciparum drug resistance in Brazil and its relevance to the treatment and control of malaria

With the use of a simple formulary, field by health agents was ewstablished a monitoring programme for responses of P. falciparum to the antimalarial drugs. This monitoring programme is emphasized for knowledge of the epidemiology of the drug resistance and the control of malaria falciparum in Amazonan Basin where occurs more than 95% of Brazilian malaria cases every year. It was demonstrated that still now 4-aminoquinolines have a great importance for the mortality control in areas where just SUCAM (National Health Foundation - Health Ministry) agenst are present without any medical assistance. The results obtained permitted the simplification of malaria treatment in Brazil Important conclusions were established in the field of malaria drug resistance.

Brazilian contributions to epidemiological aspects of schistosomiasis mansoni

A review of epidemiological aspects of endemic areas for schistosomiasis, especially in Brazil, will be presented. These studies, performed by several authors from different states of the country, have been very useful in indicating the relative efficacy of control measures. For example quoting only one aspect, specific treatment was demonstrated by Brazilian researches to be the most important individual tool for morbidity control. More recently the study of risk factors in endemic areas has been seen to be a very important approach when transmission control is the final goal.

Epidemiological features and control of schistosomiasis japonica in China

Achievements and successes have been obtained in schistosomiasis control in China. An epidemic survey was carried out and its results analyzed.

Contrôle de la qualité des soins: aspects épidémiologiques. [Quality control of health care: epidemiological aspects].

Quality control in health care should be performed by health professionals. To do so they must define indicators, set up studies aimed at measuring and analyzing quality of care, and implement quality assurance programs in health care systems. The elements of a quality improvement program of this kind are described, with special emphasis on the contribution of epidemiology in this field.