Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

A cost-benefit analysis of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands using the SCUAF model

Soil erosion in the Philippine uplands is severe. Hedgerow intercropping is widely advocated as an effective means of controlling soil erosion from annual cropping systems in the uplands. However, few farmers adopt hedgerow intercropping even in areas where it has been vigorously promoted. This may be because farmers find hedgerow intercropping to be uneconomic compared to traditional methods of farming. This paper reports a cost-benefit analysis comparing the economic returns from traditional maize farming with those from hedgerow intercropping in an upland community with no past adoption of hedgerows. A simple erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry (SCUAF), is used to predict maize yields over 25 years. Economic data were collected through key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers in an upland community. Traditional methods of open-field farming of maize are economically attractive to farmers in the Philippine uplands. In the short term, establishment costs are a major disincentive to the adoption of hedgerow intercropping. In the long term, higher economic returns from hedgerow intercropping compared to open-field farming are realised, but these lie beyond farmers' limited planning horizons.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF CISPLATIN-BASED CHEMORADIATION TO TREAT PATIENTS WITH UNRESECTABLE, NONMETASTATIC HEAD AND NECK CANCER IN BRAZIL

Background. The purpose of this study was to analyze the cost-effectiveness of cisplatin-based chemoradiation compared to radiation therapy (RT) alone to treat patients with advanced head and neck cancer in Brazil. Methods. Data were collected retrospectively from the medical records of 33 patients treated with RT alone (strategy 1) and from 29 patients treated with cisplatin-based chemoradiation (strategy 2). The Brazilian National Health System (Sistema Unico de Saude [SUS]) reimbursement parameters perspective was considered, and the effectiveness was measured in years of disease-free life gained. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to determine robustness of this study. Results. In strategy 1, there were 31% of the patients who lived without disease progression for more than 13 months after treatment, compared to 58% of patients in strategy 2. According to SUS parameters, the total cost per patient in strategy 1 was $1167.00 U.S. dollars and in strategy 2, it was $2058.00 U.S. dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $3303.00 U.S. dollars per life-year gained. Conclusion. Cisplatin-based chemoradiation proved to be more cost-effective than RT alone. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 33: 1199-1205, 2011

Environmental assisted fracture for 4340 steel in water and air of various humidities

This paper reports on measurements of crack growth by environmental assisted fracture (EAF) for 4340 steel in water and in air at various relative humidities. Of most interest is the observation of slow crack propagation in dry air. Fractographic analysis leads to the strong suggestion that this slow crack propagation is due to hydrogen cracking caused by internal hydrogen in solid solution inside the sample material.

Concepts and determination of reference values for human biomonitoring of environmental contaminants

Human biomonitoring (HBM) of environmental contaminants plays an important role in estimating exposure and evaluating risk, and thus it has been increasingly applied in the environmental field. The results of HBM must be compared with reference values ( RV). The term ""reference values"" has always been related to the interpretation of clinical laboratory tests. For physicians, RV indicate ""normal values"" or ""limits of normal""; in turn, toxicologists prefer the terms ""background values"" or ""baseline values"" to refer to the presence of contaminants in biological fluids. This discrepancy leads to the discussion concerning which should be the population selected to determine RV. Whereas clinical chemistry employs an altered health state as the main exclusion criterion to select a reference population ( that is, a ""healthy"" population would be selected), in environmental toxicology the exclusion criterion is the abnormal exposure to xenobiotics. Therefore, the choice of population to determine RV is based on the very purpose of the RV to be determined. The present paper discusses the concepts and methodology used to determine RV for biomarkers of chemical environmental contaminants.

Do Phenotypic Characteristics, Parental Psychopathology, Family Functioning, and Environmental Stressors Have a Role in the Response to Methylphenidate in Children With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder? A Naturalistic Study From a Developing Country

Little is known about the effect of clinical characteristics, parental psychopathology, family functioning, and environmental stressors in the response to methylphenidate in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) followed up in a naturalistic setting. Data from cultures outside the United States are extremely scarce. This is a longitudinal study using a nonrandom assignment, quasi-experimental design. One hundred twenty-five children with ADHD were treated with methylphenidate according to standard clinical procedures, and followed up for 6 months. The severity of ADHD symptoms was assessed by the Swanson, Nolan, and Pelham rating scale. In the final multivariate model, ADHD combined subtype (P < 0.001) and comorbidity with oppositional defiant disorder (P = 0.03) were both predictors of a worse clinical response. In addition, the levels of maternal ADHD symptoms were also associated with worse prognosis (P < 0.001). In the context of several adverse psychosocial factors assessed, only undesired pregnancy was associated with poorer response to methylphenidate in the final comprehensive-model (P = 0.02). Our study provides evidence for the involvement of clinical characteristics, maternal psychopathology, and environmental stressors in the response to methylphenidate. Clinicians may consider adjuvant strategies when negative predictors are present to increase the chances of success with methylphenidate treatment.

Homocysteine and cysteine concentrations are modified by recent exposure to environmental air pollution in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Millions of people worldwide are affected by anthropogenic air pollution derived from the combustion of fossil fuels. In this work, we tested the effects of fetal, lactation and post-weaning ambient air pollution exposure on total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and on a downstream pathway element, the plasma cysteine (Cys) concentration. Two similar exposure chambers (polluted and filtered chamber) were located near an area with heavy traffic in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and male Swiss mice were housed there from the pre-natal period until 3 months of age. Groups during fetal, lactation and adult periods of exposure were apportioned, and tHcy and Cys plasma concentrations were assessed when the animals were 3 months old. In our study, both the tHcy and Cys concentrations were decreased in groups that spent their final stage of life in polluted chambers, suggesting recent alterations in tHcy and Cys concentrations due to air pollution exposure. The possible relationship of these data with cardiovascular dysfunction is still a matter of controversy in animals; nevertheless, epigenetic mechanisms emerge as a possible issue to consider in the investigation of the link between air pollution and Hcy measurement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consistency of FDG-PET Accuracy and Cost-Effectiveness in Initial Staging of Patients With Hodgkin Lymphoma Across Jurisdictions

Introduction: Two hundred ten patients with newly diagnosed Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) were consecutively enrolled in this prospective trial to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of fluorine-18 ((18)F)-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scan in initial staging of patients with HL. Methods: All 210 patients were staged with conventional clinical staging (CCS) methods, including computed tomography (CT), bone marrow biopsy (BMB), and laboratory tests. Patients were also submitted to metabolic staging (MS) with whole-body FDG-PET scan before the beginning of treatment. A standard of reference for staging was determined with all staging procedures, histologic examination, and follow-up examinations. The accuracy of the CCS was compared with the MS. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for both strategies. Results: In the 210 patients with HL, the sensitivity for initial staging of FDG-PET was higher than that of CT and BMB in initial staging (97.9% vs. 87.3%; P < .001 and 94.2% vs. 71.4%, P < 0.003, respectively). The incorporation of FDG-PET in the staging procedure upstaged disease in 50 (24%) patients and downstaged disease in 17 (8%) patients. Changes in treatment would be seen in 32 (15%) patients. Cumulative cost for staging procedures was $3751/patient for CCS compared to $5081 for CCS + PET and $4588 for PET/CT. The ICER of PET/CT strategy was $16,215 per patient with modified treatment. PET/CT costs at the beginning and end of treatment would increase total costs of HL staging and first-line treatment by only 2%. Conclusion: FDG-PET is more accurate than CT and BMB in HL staging. Given observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost-effective in the public health care program in Brazil.

Introduction to Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Financial Functions in Excel

The financial and economic analysis of investment projects is typically carried out using the technique of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This module introduces concepts of discounting and DCF analysis for the derivation of project performance criteria such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit to cost (B/C) ratios. These concepts and criteria are introduced with respect to a simple example, for which calculations using MicroSoft Excel are demonstrated.

Cost Effectiveness of Positron Emission Tomography in Patients With Hodgkin`s Lymphoma in Unconfirmed Complete Remission or Partial Remission After First-Line Therapy

Purpose To assess the cost effectiveness of fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in patients with Hodgkin`s lymphoma (HL) with unconfirmed complete remission (CRu) or partial remission (PR) after first-line treatment. Patients and Methods One hundred thirty patients with HL were prospectively studied. After treatment, all patients with CRu/PR were evaluated with FDG-PET. In addition, PET-negative patients were evaluated with standard follow-up, and PET-positive patients were evaluated with biopsies of the positive lesions. Local unit costs of procedures and tests were evaluated. Cost effectiveness was determined by evaluating projected annual economic impact of strategies without and with FDG-PET on HL management. Results After treatment, CRu/PR was observed in 50 (40.0%) of the 127 patients; the sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of FDG-PET were 100%, 92.0%, 92.3%, and 100%, respectively (accuracy of 95.9%). Local restaging costs without PET were $350,050 compared with $283,262 with PET, a 19% decrease. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is -$3,268 to detect one true case. PET costs represented 1% of total costs of HL treatment. Simulated costs in the 974 patients registered in the 2008 Brazilian public health care database showed that the strategy including restaging PET would have a total program cost of $56,498,314, which is $516,942 less than without restaging PET, resulting in a 1% cost saving. Conclusion FDG-PET demonstrated 95.9% accuracy in restaging for patients with HL with CRu/PR after first-line therapy. Given the observed probabilities, FDG-PET is highly cost effective and would reduce costs for the public health care program in Brazil.