Robust effect sizes and their confidence intervals for group difference between trajectories in hierarchical linear growth model

Hierarchical linear growth model (HLGM), as a flexible and powerful analytic method, has played an increased important role in psychology, public health and medical sciences in recent decades. Mostly, researchers who conduct HLGM are interested in the treatment effect on individual trajectories, which can be indicated by the cross-level interaction effects. However, the statistical hypothesis test for the effect of cross-level interaction in HLGM only show us whether there is a significant group difference in the average rate of change, rate of acceleration or higher polynomial effect; it fails to convey information about the magnitude of the difference between the group trajectories at specific time point. Thus, reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been increased emphases in HLGM in recent years, due to the limitations and increased criticisms for statistical hypothesis testing. However, most researchers fail to report these model-implied effect sizes for group trajectories comparison and their corresponding confidence intervals in HLGM analysis, since lack of appropriate and standard functions to estimate effect sizes associated with the model-implied difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM, and also lack of computing packages in the popular statistical software to automatically calculate them. ^ The present project is the first to establish the appropriate computing functions to assess the standard difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM. We proposed the two functions to estimate effect sizes on model-based grouping trajectories difference at specific time, we also suggested the robust effect sizes to reduce the bias of estimated effect sizes. Then, we applied the proposed functions to estimate the population effect sizes (d ) and robust effect sizes (du) on the cross-level interaction in HLGM by using the three simulated datasets, and also we compared the three methods of constructing confidence intervals around d and du recommended the best one for application. At the end, we constructed 95% confidence intervals with the suitable method for the effect sizes what we obtained with the three simulated datasets. ^ The effect sizes between grouping trajectories for the three simulated longitudinal datasets indicated that even though the statistical hypothesis test shows no significant difference between grouping trajectories, effect sizes between these grouping trajectories can still be large at some time points. Therefore, effect sizes between grouping trajectories in HLGM analysis provide us additional and meaningful information to assess group effect on individual trajectories. In addition, we also compared the three methods to construct 95% confident intervals around corresponding effect sizes in this project, which handled with the uncertainty of effect sizes to population parameter. We suggested the noncentral t-distribution based method when the assumptions held, and the bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated method when the assumptions are not met.^

Mineralogy and diagenesis: Their effect on acoustic and electrical properties of pelagic clays at DSDP Leg 86 Holes

Analysis of pelagic clay samples from Sites 576, 578, and 581 shows that physical, acoustic, and electrical trends with increasing burial depth are related to mineralogical and diagenetic changes. The properties of interest are bulk density (roo), porosity (phi), compressional-wave velocity (Vp) and velocity anisotropy (Ap), and electrical resistivity (Ro) and resistivity anisotropy (Ar). In general, as demonstrated in particular for the brown pelagic clay, the increase in roo, Vp, Ro, and to a lesser extent Ap and Ar with increasing depth is primarily caused by decreasing phi (and water content) as a result of compaction. The mineralogy and chemistry of the pelagic clays vary as a function of burial depth at all three sites. These variations are interpreted to reflect changes in the relative importance of detrital and diagenetic components. Mineralogical and chemical variations, however, play minor roles in determining variations in acoustic and electrical properties of the clays with increasing burial depth.

The effect of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of single male:female crosses of broad-cast spawning corals at mid- and high-latitude locations

The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

Effect of increased pCO2 on bacterial assemblage shifts in response to glucose addition in Fram Strait seawater mesocosms

Ocean acidification may stimulate primary production through increased availability of inorganic carbon in the photic zone, which may in turn change the biogenic flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the growth potential of heterotrophic bacteria. To investigate the effects of ocean acidification on marine bacterial assemblages, a two-by-three factorial mescosom experiment was conducted using surface sea water from the East Greenland Current in Fram Strait. Pyrosequencing of the V1-V2 region of bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA genes was used to investigate differences in the endpoint (Day 9) composition of bacterial assemblages in mineral nutrient-replete mesocosms amended with glucose (0 µm, 5.3 µm and 15.9 µm) under ambient (250 µatm) or acidified (400 µatm) partial pressures of CO2 (pCO2). All mesocosms showed low richness and diversity by Chao1 estimator and Shannon index, respectively, with general dominance by Gammaproteobacteria and Flavobacteria. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis and two-way analysis of variance of the Jaccard dissimilarity matrix (97% similarity cut-off) demonstrated that the significant community shift between 0 µm and 15.9 µm glucose addition at 250 µatm pCO2 was eliminated at 400 µatm pCO2. These results suggest that the response potential of marine bacteria to DOC input may be altered under acidified conditions.

Effect of increasing sea water pCO2 on the northern Atlantic krill species Nyctiphanes couchii

Surprisingly little is known about potential effects of ocean acidification on krill of the Northern Hemisphere as ecologically very important food web component. Sub-adult individuals of the northern Atlantic krill species Nyctiphanes couchii (caught at Austevoll near Bergen, Norway, in January 2013) were exposed in the laboratory to four different levels of pCO2 (430, 800, 1,100, and 1,700 µatm) for 5 weeks in order to assess potential changes in a set of biological response variables. Survival decreased and the frequency of moulting-related deaths increased with increasing pCO2. Survival was considerably reduced at relatively high pCO2 of 1,700 µatm and tended to be negatively affected at 1,100 µatm pCO2. However, the experimental results show no significant effects of pCO2 on inter-moult period and growth at pCO2 levels below 1,100 µatm. No differences in length measurements of the carapace and uropod were observed across pCO2 levels, indicating no effect of changing carbonate chemistry on the morphology of those calciferous parts of the exoskeleton. The results suggest that sub-adult N. couchii may not suffer dramatically from predicted near-future changes in pCO2. However, potential detrimental effects on the moulting process and associated higher mortality at 1,100 µatm pCO2 cannot be excluded. Further experiments are needed in order to investigate whether early life stages of N. couchii show a different sensitivity to elevated sea water pCO2 and whether those results are transferable to other krill species of the Northern Hemisphere.

Effect of ocean acidification and pH fluctuations on the growth and development of coralline algal recruits, and an associated benthic algal assemblage

Coralline algae are susceptible to the changes in the seawater carbonate system associated with ocean acidification (OA). However, the coastal environments in which corallines grow are subject to large daily pH fluctuations which may affect their responses to OA. Here, we followed the growth and development of the juvenile coralline alga Arthrocardia corymbosa, which had recruited into experimental conditions during a prior experiment, using a novel OA laboratory culture system to simulate the pH fluctuations observed within a kelp forest. Microscopic life history stages are considered more susceptible to environmental stress than adult stages; we compared the responses of newly recruited A. corymbosa to static and fluctuating seawater pH with those of their field-collected parents. Recruits were cultivated for 16 weeks under static pH 8.05 and 7.65, representing ambient and 4*preindustrial pCO2 concentrations, respectively, and two fluctuating pH treatments of daily (daytime pH = 8.45, night-time pH = 7.65) and daily (daytime pH = 8.05, night-time pH = 7.25). Positive growth rates of new recruits were recorded in all treatments, and were highest under static pH 8.05 and lowest under fluctuating pH 7.65. This pattern was similar to the adults' response, except that adults had zero growth under fluctuating pH 7.65. The % dry weight of MgCO3 in calcite of the juveniles was reduced from 10% at pH 8.05 to 8% at pH 7.65, but there was no effect of pH fluctuation. A wide range of fleshy macroalgae and at least 6 species of benthic diatoms recruited across all experimental treatments, from cryptic spores associated with the adult A. corymbosa. There was no effect of experimental treatment on the growth of the benthic diatoms. On the community level, pH-sensitive species may survive lower pH in the presence of diatoms and fleshy macroalgae, whose high metabolic activity may raise the pH of the local microhabitat.

Effect of simulated ocean acidification on the acute toxicity of Cu and Cd to Tigriopus japonicus

Heavy metals pollution in marine environments has caused great damage to marine biological and ecological systems. Heavy metals accumulate in marine creatures, after which they are delivered to higher trophic levels of marine organisms through the marine food chain, which causes serious harm to marine biological systems and human health. Additionally, excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has caused ocean acidification. Indeed, about one third of the CO2 released into the atmosphere by anthropogenic activities since the beginning of the industrial revolution has been absorbed by the world's oceans, which play a key role in moderating climate change. Modeling has shown that, if current trends in CO2 emissions continue, the average pH of the ocean will reach 7.8 by the end of this century, corresponding to 0.5 units below the pre-industrial level, or a three-fold increase in H+ concentration. The ocean pH has not been at this level for several millions of years. Additionally, these changes are occurring at speeds 100 times greater than ever previously observed. As a result, several marine species, communities and ecosystems might not have time to acclimate or adapt to these fast changes in ocean chemistry. In addition, decreasing ocean pH has the potential to seriously affect the growth, development and reproduction reproductive processes of marine organisms, as well as threaten normal development of the marine ecosystem. Copepods are an important part of the meiofauna that play an important role in the marine ecosystem. Pollution of the marine environment can influence their growth and development, as well as the ecological processes they are involved in. Accordingly, there is important scientific value to investigation of the response of copepods to ocean acidification and heavy metals pollution. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of simulated future ocean acidification and the toxicological interaction between ocean acidity and heavy metals of Cu and Cd on T. japonicus. To accomplish this, harpacticoids were exposed to Cu and Cd concentration gradient seawater that had been equilibrated with CO2 and air to reach pH 8.0, 7.7, 7.3 and 6.5 for 96 h. Survival was not significantly suppressed under single sea water acidification, and the final survival rates were greater than 93% in both the experimental groups and the controls. The toxicity of Cu to T. japonicus was significantly affected by sea water acidification, with the 96h LC50 decreasing by nearly threefold from 1.98 to 0.64 mg/L with decreasing pH. The 96 h LC50 of Cd decreased with decreasing pH, but there was no significant difference in mortality among pH treatments. The results of the present study demonstrated that the predicted future ocean acidification has the potential to negatively affect survival of T. japonicus by exacerbating the toxicity of Cu. The calculated safe concentrations of Cu were 11.9 (pH 7.7) and 10.5 (pH 7.3) µg/L, which were below the class I value and very close to the class II level of the China National Quality Standard for Sea Water. Overall, these results indicate that the Chinese coastal sea will face a

An approach for particle sinking velocity measurements in the 3-400 µm size range and considerations on the effect of temperature on sinking rates

The flux of organic particles below the mixed layer is one major pathway of carbon from the surface into the deep ocean. The magnitude of this export flux depends on two major processes-remineralization rates and sinking velocities. Here, we present an efficient method to measure sinking velocities of particles in the size range from approximately 3-400 µm by means of video microscopy (FlowCAM®). The method allows rapid measurement and automated analysis of mixed samples and was tested with polystyrene beads, different phytoplankton species, and sediment trap material. Sinking velocities of polystyrene beads were close to theoretical values calculated from Stokes' Law. Sinking velocities of the investigated phytoplankton species were in reasonable agreement with published literature values and sinking velocities of material collected in sediment trap increased with particle size. Temperature had a strong effect on sinking velocities due to its influence on seawater viscosity and density. An increase in 9 °C led to a measured increase in sinking velocities of 40 %. According to this temperature effect, an average temperature increase in 2 °C as projected for the sea surface by the end of this century could increase sinking velocities by about 6 % which might have feedbacks on carbon export into the deep ocean.

Ocean acidification has no effect on thermal bleaching in the coral Seriatopora caliendrum

The objective of this study was to test whether elevated pCO2 predicted for the year 2100 (85.1 Pa) affects bleaching in the coral Seriatopora caliendrum (Ehrenberg 1834) either independently or interactively with high temperature (30.5 °C). Response variables detected the sequence of events associated with the onset of bleaching: reduction in the photosynthetic performance of symbionts as measured by maximum photochemical efficiency (F v/F m) and effective photochemical efficiency (delta F/F m') of PSII, declines in net photosynthesis (P net) and photosynthetic efficiency (alpha), and finally, reduced chlorophyll a and symbiont concentrations. S. caliendrum was collected from Nanwan Bay, Taiwan, and subjected to combinations of temperature (27.7 vs. 30.5 °C) and pCO2 (45.1 vs. 85.1 Pa) for 14 days. High temperature reduced values of all dependent variables (i.e., bleaching occurred), but high pCO2 did not affect Symbiodinium photophysiology or productivity, and did not cause bleaching. These results suggest that short-term exposure to 81.5 Pa pCO2, alone and in combination with elevated temperature, does not cause or affect coral bleaching.

9-28 d of exposure to elevated pCO2 reduces avoidance of predator odour but had no effect on behavioural lateralization or swimming activity in a temperate wrasse(Ctenolabrus rupestris)

Most studies on the impact of near-future levels of carbon dioxide on fish behaviour report behavioural alterations, wherefore abnormal behaviour has been suggested to be a potential consequence of future ocean acidification and therefore a threat to ocean ecosystems. However, an increasing number of studies show tolerance of fish to increased levels of carbon dioxide. This variation among studies in susceptibility highlights the importance of continued investigation of the possible effects of elevated pCO2. Here, we investigated the impacts of increased levels of carbon dioxide on behaviour using the goldsinny wrasse (Ctenolabrus rupestris), which is a common species in European coastal waters and widely used as cleaner fish to control sea lice infestation in commercial fish farming in Europe. The wrasses were exposed to control water conditions (370 µatm) or elevated pCO2 (995 µatm) for 1 month, during which time behavioural trials were performed. We investigated the possible effects of CO2 on behavioural lateralization, swimming activity, and prey and predator olfactory preferences, all behaviours where disturbances have previously been reported in other fish species after exposure to elevated CO2. Interestingly, we failed to detect effects of carbon dioxide for most behaviours investigated, excluding predator olfactory cue avoidance, where control fish initially avoided predator cue while the high CO2 group was indifferent. The present study therefore shows behavioural tolerance to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the goldsinny wrasse. We also highlight that individual fish can show disturbance in specific behaviours while being apparently unaffected by elevated pCO2 in other behavioural tests. However, using experiments with exposure times measured in weeks to predict possible effects of long-term drivers, such as ocean acidification, has limitations, and the behavioural effects from elevated pCO2 in this experiment cannot be viewed as proof that these fish would show the same reaction after decades of evolution.

Effect of ocean acidification on growth and otolith condition of juvenile scup, Stenotomus chrysops

Increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from human industrial activities are causing changes in global ocean carbonate chemistry, resulting in a reduction in pH, a process termed "ocean acidification." It is important to determine which species are sensitive to elevated levels of CO2 because of potential impacts to ecosystems, marine resources, biodiversity, food webs, populations, and effects on economies. Previous studies with marine fish have documented that exposure to elevated levels of CO2 caused increased growth and larger otoliths in some species. This study was conducted to determine whether the elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) would have an effect on growth, otolith (ear bone) condition, survival, or the skeleton of juvenile scup, Stenotomus chrysops, a species that supports both important commercial and recreational fisheries. Elevated levels of pCO2 (1200-2600 µatm) had no statistically significant effect on growth, survival, or otolith condition after 8 weeks of rearing. Field data show that in Long Island Sound, where scup spawn, in situ levels of pCO2 are already at levels ranging from 689 to 1828 µatm due to primary productivity, microbial activity, and anthropogenic inputs. These results demonstrate that ocean acidification is not likely to cause adverse effects on the growth and survivability of every species of marine fish. X-ray analysis of the fish revealed a slightly higher incidence of hyperossification in the vertebrae of a few scup from the highest treatments compared to fish from the control treatments. Our results show that juvenile scup are tolerant to increases in seawater pCO2, possibly due to conditions this species encounters in their naturally variable environment and their well-developed pH control mechanisms.