The External validity in economic experiments

One of the most important questions regarding experimental economics is the external validity of laboratory experiments. This paper goes through a study that tests the generalizability of a Dictator Game as a laboratory analogue for a naturally occurringdecision-making context of teacher absenteeism. Because lab and naturally-occurring environments systematically differ we then discuss other factors that might strongly affect the choices that individuals make. We conclude that the dichotomy drawn between labexperiments and data collected from natural settings is a false one. A combination of the two would provide deeper and better insights than either separately.

Ecological niche overlap in sister species: how do oil-collecting bees Macropis europaea and M. fulvipes (Hymenoptera: Melittidae) avoid competition and hybridization?

Oil-collecting bees are found worldwide and always in association with particular oil-producing flowers. In the Western Palearctic, three oil-collecting bee species within the genus Macropis (Hymenoptera, Melittidae) interact in a tight pollination mutualism with species of the only European oil-producing plant genus Lysimachia L. (Myrsinaceae). Two of these oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and Macropis fulvipes) show overlapping geographic distributions, comparable morphologies, and similar ecological characteristics (e.g., habitat type, floral preferences). In view of these similarities, we presume that hybridization should occur between the two species unless potential variation among the species' ecological niches prevents it, simultaneously decreasing competition for resources. Using modern genetic analyses and ecological niche modeling on a large bee sampling throughout Europe, we discuss new perspectives on the ecology and evolutionary history of this mutualism.

Use of the Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS) to detect cognitive impairment in the acute care setting: concurrent and predictive validity.

The Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS) was initially designed to assess cognition in long term care residents. Subsequently, the CPS has also been used among in-home, post-acute, and acute care populations even though CPS' clinimetric performance has not been studied in these settings. This study aimed to determine CPS agreement with the Mini Mental Status Exam (MMSE) and its predictive validity for institutionalization and death in a cohort (N=401) of elderly medical inpatients aged 75 years and over. Medical, physical and mental status were assessed upon admission. The same day, the patient's nurse completed the CPS by interview. Follow-up data were gathered from the central billing system (nursing home stay) and proxies (death). Cognitive impairment was present in 92 (23%) patients according to CPS (score >or= 2). Agreement with MMSE was moderate (kappa 0.52, P<.001). Analysis of discordant results suggested that cognitive impairment was overestimated by the CPS in dependent patients with comorbidities and depressive symptoms, and underestimated in older ones. During follow-up, subjects with abnormal CPS had increased risks of death (adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR) 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-2.8, P=.035) and institutionalization (adjHR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.3, P=.006), independent of demographic, health and functional status. Interestingly, subjects with abnormal CPS were at increased risk of death only if they also had abnormal MMSE. The CPS predicted death and institutionalization during follow-up, but correlated moderately well with the MMSE. Combining CPS and MMSE provided additional predictive information, suggesting that domains other than cognition are assessed by professionals when using the CPS in elderly medical inpatients.

Validity of the acoustic approximation in full-waveform seismic crosshole tomography

Acoustic waveform inversions are an increasingly popular tool for extracting subsurface information from seismic data. They are computationally much more efficient than elastic inversions. Naturally, an inherent disadvantage is that any elastic effects present in the recorded data are ignored in acoustic inversions. We investigate the extent to which elastic effects influence seismic crosshole data. Our numerical modeling studies reveal that in the presence of high contrast interfaces, at which P-to-S conversions occur, elastic effects can dominate the seismic sections, even for experiments involving pressure sources and pressure receivers. Comparisons of waveform inversion results using a purely acoustic algorithm on synthetic data that is either acoustic or elastic, show that subsurface models comprising small low-to-medium contrast (?30%) structures can be successfully resolved in the acoustic approximation. However, in the presence of extended high-contrast anomalous bodies, P-to-S-conversions may substantially degrade the quality of the tomographic images. In particular, extended low-velocity zones are difficult to image. Likewise, relatively small low-velocity features are unresolved, even when advanced a priori information is included. One option for mitigating elastic effects is data windowing, which suppresses later arriving seismic arrivals, such as shear waves. Our tests of this approach found it to be inappropriate because elastic effects are also included in earlier arriving wavetrains. Furthermore, data windowing removes later arriving P-wave phases that may provide critical constraints on the tomograms. Finally, we investigated the extent to which acoustic inversions of elastic data are useful for time-lapse analyses of high contrast engineered structures, for which accurate reconstruction of the subsurface structure is not as critical as imaging differential changes between sequential experiments. Based on a realistic scenario for monitoring a radioactive waste repository, we demonstrated that acoustic inversions of elastic data yield substantial distortions of the tomograms and also unreliable information on trends in the velocity changes.

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.

Biased diffusion in confined media: Test of the Fick-Jacobs approximation and validity criteria

We study biased, diffusive transport of Brownian particles through narrow, spatially periodic structures in which the motion is constrained in lateral directions. The problem is analyzed under the perspective of the Fick-Jacobs equation, which accounts for the effect of the lateral confinement by introducing an entropic barrier in a one-dimensional diffusion. The validity of this approximation, based on the assumption of an instantaneous equilibration of the particle distribution in the cross section of the structure, is analyzed by comparing the different time scales that characterize the problem. A validity criterion is established in terms of the shape of the structure and of the applied force. It is analytically corroborated and verified by numerical simulations that the critical value of the force up to which this description holds true scales as the square of the periodicity of the structure. The criterion can be visualized by means of a diagram representing the regions where the Fick-Jacobs description becomes inaccurate in terms of the scaled force versus the periodicity of the structure.

Benefits from ecological study methods to taxonomy of enchytraeids in southern Mata Atlântica

The objective of this work was to determine how taxonomy benefited from the ecological quantitative and site-based sampling methods in enchytraeids studies. Enchytraeids (small relatives of earthworms) were sampled in different phases of rain forest regeneration in the southern Mata Atlântica in Paraná, Brazil. The research combined ecological and taxonomic work, because enchytraeids are poorly studied and difficult to identify, and many new species were expected. The provision of large numbers of specimens enabled the test of species diagnoses by investigating the ranges of character variations in a larger series of specimens. Simplified species diagnoses adapted to the local conditions that allowed the identification of all specimens, juveniles included, were developed. Key characters and character states are presented for the three genera: Achaeta, Hemienchytraeus and Guaranidrilus. Among several new species, a rare species, possibly a remnant of the autochthonous forest fauna, was found and described.

Towards an ecological index for tropical soil quality based on soil macrofauna

The objective of this work was to construct a simple index based on the presence/absence of different groups of soil macrofauna to determine the ecological quality of soils. The index was tested with data from 20 sites in South and Central Tabasco, Mexico, and a positive relation between the model and the field observations was detected. The index showed that diverse agroforestry systems had the highest soil quality index (1.00), and monocrops without trees, such as pineapple, showed the lowest soil quality index (0.08). Further research is required to improve this model for natural systems that have very low earthworm biomass (<10 g m-2) and a high number of earthworm species (5-7), as it is in the tropical rain forest, whose soil quality index was medium (0.5). The application of this index will require an illustrated guide for its users. Further studies are required in order to test the use of this index by farmers.

Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable : transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise

Résumé Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable. Transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise. Cette thèse s'inscrit clans la perspective d'une analyse stratégique visant à un définir et à expliciter les liens entre connaissance, expertise et décision politique. L'hypothèse fondamentale qui oriente l'ensemble de ce travail est la suivante : le régime d'urbanisation qui s'est imposé au cours des trente dernières années correspond à une transformation du principe morphogénétique de développement spatial des agglomérations qui tend à alourdir leurs bilans écologiques et à péjorer la qualité du cadre de vie des citadins. Ces enjeux environnementaux liés aux changements urbains et singulièrement ceux de la forme urbaine constituent un thème de plus en plus important dans la recherche de solutions d'aménagement urbain dans une perspective de développement durable. Dans ce contexte, l'aménagement urbain devient un mode d'action et une composante de tout premier ordre des politiques publiques visant un développement durable à l'échelle locale et globale. Ces modalités de développement spatial des agglomérations émergent indiscutablement au coeur de la problématique environnementale. Or si le concept de développement durable nous livre une nouvelle de de lecture des territoires et de ses transformations, en prônant le modèle de la ville compacte et son corollaire la densification, la traduction à donner à ce principe stratégique reste controversée, notamment sous l'angle de l'aménagement du territoire et des stratégies de développement urbain permettant une mise en oeuvre adéquate des solutions proposées. Nous avons ainsi tenté dans ce travail de répondre à un certain nombre de questions : quelle validité accorder au modèle de la ville compacte ? La densification est-elle une réponse adéquate ? Si oui, sous quelles modalités ? Quelles sont, en termes de stratégies d'aménagement, les alternatives durables au modèle de la ville étalée ? Faut-il vraiment densifier ou simplement maîtriser la dispersion ? Notre objectif principal étant in fine de déterminer les orientations et contenus urbanistiques de politiques publiques visant à réguler l'étalement urbain, de valider la faisabilité de ces principes et à définir les conditions de leur mise en place dans le cas d'une agglomération. Pour cela, et après avoir choisi l'agglomération lausannoise comme terrain d'expérimentation, trois approches complémentaires se sont révélées indispensables dans ce travail 1. une approche théorique visant à définir un cadre conceptuel interdisciplinaire d'analyse du phénomène urbain dans ses rapports à la problématique du développement durable liant régime d'urbanisation - forme urbaine - développement durable ; 2. une approche méthodologique proposant des outils d'analyse simples et efficaces de description des nouvelles morphologies urbaines pour une meilleure gestion de l'environnement urbain et de la pratique de l'aménagement urbain ; 3. une approche pragmatique visant à approfondir la réflexion sur la ville étalée en passant d'une approche descriptive des conséquences du nouveau régime d'urbanisation à une approche opérationnelle, visant à identifier les lignes d'actions possibles dans une perspective de développement durable. Cette démarche d'analyse nous a conduits à trois résultats majeurs, nous permettant de définir une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement. Premièrement, si la densification est acceptée comme un objectif stratégique de l'aménagement urbain, le modèle de la ville dense ne peut être appliqué saris la prise en considération d'autres objectifs d'aménagement. Il ne suffit pas de densifier pour réduire l'empreinte écologique de la ville et améliorer la qualité de vie des citadins. La recherche d'une forme urbaine plus durable est tributaire d'une multiplicité de facteurs et d'effets de synergie et la maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain passe par la mise en oeuvre de politiques urbaines intégrées et concertées, comme par exemple prôner la densification qualifiée comme résultante d'un processus finalisé, intégrer et valoriser les transports collectifs et encore plus la métrique pédestre avec l'aménagement urbain, intégrer systématiquement la diversité à travers les dimensions physique et sociale du territoire. Deuxièmement, l'avenir de ces territoires étalés n'est pas figé. Notre enquête de terrain a montré une évolution des modes d'habitat liée aux modes de vie, à l'organisation du travail, à la mobilité, qui font que l'on peut penser à un retour d'une partie de la population dans les villes centres (fin de la toute puissance du modèle de la maison individuelle). Ainsi, le diagnostic et la recherche de solutions d'aménagement efficaces et viables ne peuvent être dissociés des demandes des habitants et des comportements des acteurs de la production du cadre bâti. Dans cette perspective, tout programme d'urbanisme doit nécessairement s'appuyer sur la connaissance des aspirations de la population. Troisièmement, la réussite de la mise en oeuvre d'une politique globale de maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain est fortement conditionnée par l'adaptation de l'offre immobilière à la demande de nouveaux modèles d'habitat répondant à la fois à la nécessité d'une maîtrise des coûts de l'urbanisation (économiques, sociaux, environnementaux), ainsi qu'aux aspirations émergentes des ménages. Ces résultats nous ont permis de définir les orientations d'une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement, dont nous avons testé la faisabilité ainsi que les conditions de mise en oeuvre sur le territoire de l'agglomération lausannoise. Abstract This dissertation participates in the perspective of a strategic analysis aiming at specifying the links between knowledge, expertise and political decision, The fundamental hypothesis directing this study assumes that the urban dynamics that has characterized the past thirty years signifies a trans-formation of the morphogenetic principle of agglomerations' spatial development that results in a worsening of their ecological balance and of city dwellers' quality of life. The environmental implications linked to urban changes and particularly to changes in urban form constitute an ever greater share of research into sustainable urban planning solutions. In this context, urban planning becomes a mode of action and an essential component of public policies aiming at local and global sustainable development. These patterns of spatial development indisputably emerge at the heart of environmental issues. If the concept of sustainable development provides us with new understanding into territories and their transformations, by arguing in favor of densification, its concretization remains at issue, especially in terms of urban planning and of urban development strategies allowing the appropriate implementations of the solutions offered. Thus, this study tries to answer a certain number of questions: what validity should be granted to the model of the dense city? Is densification an adequate answer? If so, under what terms? What are the sustainable alternatives to urban sprawl in terms of planning strategies? Should densification really be pursued or should we simply try to master urban sprawl? Our main objective being in fine to determine the directions and urban con-tents of public policies aiming at regulating urban sprawl, to validate the feasibility of these principles and to define the conditions of their implementation in the case of one agglomeration. Once the Lausanne agglomeration had been chosen as experimentation field, three complementary approaches proved to be essential to this study: 1. a theoretical approach aiming at definying an interdisciplinary conceptual framework of the ur-ban phenomenon in its relation to sustainable development linking urban dynamics - urban form - sustainable development ; 2. a methodological approach proposing simple and effective tools for analyzing and describing new urban morphologies for a better management of the urban environment and of urban planning practices 3. a pragmatic approach aiming at deepening reflection on urban sprawl by switching from a descriptive approach of the consequences of the new urban dynamics to an operational approach, aiming at identifying possible avenues of action respecting the principles of sustainable development. This analysis approach provided us with three major results, allowing us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. First, if densification is accepted as a strategic objective of urban planning, the model of the dense city can not be applied without taking into consideration other urban planning objectives. Densification does not suffice to reduce the ecological impact of the city and improve the quality of life of its dwellers. The search for a more sustainable urban form depends on a multitude of factors and effects of synergy. Reducing the negative effects of urban sprawl requires the implementation of integrated and concerted urban policies, like for example encouraging densification qualified as resulting from a finalized process, integrating and developing collective forms of transportation and even more so the pedestrian metric with urban planning, integrating diversity on a systematic basis through the physical and social dimensions of the territory. Second, the future of such sprawling territories is not fixed. Our research on the ground revea-led an evolution in the modes of habitat related to ways of life, work organization and mobility that suggest the possibility of the return of a part of the population to the center of cities (end of the rule of the model of the individual home). Thus, the diagnosis and the search for effective and sustainable solutions can not be conceived of independently of the needs of the inhabitants and of the behavior of the actors behind the production of the built territory. In this perspective, any urban program must necessarily be based upon the knowledge of the population's wishes. Third, the successful implementation of a global policy of control of urban sprawl's negative effects is highly influenced by the adaptation of property offer to the demand of new habitat models satisfying both the necessity of urbanization cost controls (economical, social, environ-mental) and people's emerging aspirations. These results allowed us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. Its feasibility and conditions of implementation were tested on the territory of the Lausanne agglomeration.

Spatial polarization of the ecological footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework. Keywords: Polarization, Core-Periphery, Ecological Footprint