A model of factors affecting an information system's change in state

Management are keen to maximize the life span of an information system because of the high cost, organizational disruption, and risk of failure associated with the re-development or replacement of an information system. This research investigates the effects that various factors have on an information system's life span by understanding how the factors affect an information system's stability. The research builds on a previously developed two-stage model of information system change whereby an information system is either in a stable state of evolution in which the information system's functionality is evolving, or in a state of revolution, in which the information system is being replaced because it is not providing the functionality expected by its users. A case study surveyed a number of systems within one organization. The aim was to test whether a relationship existed between the base value of the volatility index (a measure of the stability of an information system) and certain system characteristics. Data relating to some 3000 user change requests covering 40 systems over a 10-year period were obtained. The following factors were hypothesized to have significant associations with the base value of the volatility index: language level (generation of language of construction), system size, system age, and the timing of changes applied to a system. Significant associations were found in the hypothesized directions except that the timing of user changes was not associated with any change in the value of the volatility index. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Conceptual modelling and ontology: Possibilities and pitfalls

Conceptual modelling is an activity undertaken during information systems development work to build a representation of selected semantics about some real-world domain. Ontological theories have been developed to account for the structure and behavior of the real world in general. In this paper, I discuss why ontological theories can be used to inform conceptual modelling research, practice, and pedagogy. I provide examples from my research to illustrate how a particular ontological theory has enabled me to improve my understanding of certain conceptual modelling practices and grammars. I describe, also, how some colleagues and I have used this theory to generate several counter-intuitive, sometimes surprising predictions about widely advocated conceptual modelling practices - predictions that subsequently were supported in empirical research we undertook. Finally, I discuss several possibilities and pitfalls I perceived to be associated with our using ontological theories to underpin research on conceptual modelling.

Explicit/implicit partitioning and a new explicit form of the generalized alpha method

Most finite element packages use the Newmark algorithm for time integration of structural dynamics. Various algorithms have been proposed to better optimize the high frequency dissipation of this algorithm. Hulbert and Chung proposed both implicit and explicit forms of the generalized alpha method. The algorithms optimize high frequency dissipation effectively, and despite recent work on algorithms that possess momentum conserving/energy dissipative properties in a non-linear context, the generalized alpha method remains an efficient way to solve many problems, especially with adaptive timestep control. However, the implicit and explicit algorithms use incompatible parameter sets and cannot be used together in a spatial partition, whereas this can be done for the Newmark algorithm, as Hughes and Liu demonstrated, and for the HHT-alpha algorithm developed from it. The present paper shows that the explicit generalized alpha method can be rewritten so that it becomes compatible with the implicit form. All four algorithmic parameters can be matched between the explicit and implicit forms. An element interface between implicit and explicit partitions can then be used, analogous to that devised by Hughes and Liu to extend the Newmark method. The stability of the explicit/implicit algorithm is examined in a linear context and found to exceed that of the explicit partition. The element partition is significantly less dissipative of intermediate frequencies than one using the HHT-alpha method. The explicit algorithm can also be rewritten so that the discrete equation of motion evaluates forces from displacements and velocities found at the predicted mid-point of a cycle. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A partial velocity approach to subcycling structural dynamics

Subcycling, or the use of different timesteps at different nodes, can be an effective way of improving the computational efficiency of explicit transient dynamic structural solutions. The method that has been most widely adopted uses a nodal partition. extending the central difference method, in which small timestep updates are performed interpolating on the displacement at neighbouring large timestep nodes. This approach leads to narrow bands of unstable timesteps or statistical stability. It also can be in error due to lack of momentum conservation on the timestep interface. The author has previously proposed energy conserving algorithms that avoid the first problem of statistical stability. However, these sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. An approach to conserve momentum on an element interface by adding partial velocities is considered here. Applied to extend the central difference method. this approach is simple. and has accuracy advantages. The method can be programmed by summing impulses of internal forces, evaluated using local element timesteps, in order to predict a velocity change at a node. However, it is still only statistically stable, so an adaptive timestep size is needed to monitor accuracy and to be adjusted if necessary. By replacing the central difference method with the explicit generalized alpha method. it is possible to gain stability by dissipating the high frequency response that leads to stability problems. However. coding the algorithm is less elegant, as the response depends on previous partial accelerations. Extension to implicit integration, is shown to be impractical due to the neglect of remote effects of internal forces acting across a timestep interface. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Learning the dynamics of embedded clauses

Recent work by Siegelmann has shown that the computational power of recurrent neural networks matches that of Turing Machines. One important implication is that complex language classes (infinite languages with embedded clauses) can be represented in neural networks. Proofs are based on a fractal encoding of states to simulate the memory and operations of stacks. In the present work, it is shown that similar stack-like dynamics can be learned in recurrent neural networks from simple sequence prediction tasks. Two main types of network solutions are found and described qualitatively as dynamical systems: damped oscillation and entangled spiraling around fixed points. The potential and limitations of each solution type are established in terms of generalization on two different context-free languages. Both solution types constitute novel stack implementations - generally in line with Siegelmann's theoretical work - which supply insights into how embedded structures of languages can be handled in analog hardware.

O paradigma sistêmico na Ciência Econômica : convergências entre Veblen, estruturas dissipativas e autopoiese

O debate entre os paradigmas da mecânica e o sistêmico tem causado importantes revoluções nos mais diversos campos de conhecimento, principalmente na física, química e biologia. Sendo assim, esta dissertação tem o objetivo de analisar como as teorias sistêmicas mais recentes desenvolvidas na química, a partir de Prigogine, e na biologia, conforme Maturana e Varela, podem contribuir para a abordagem institucionalista de Veblen. Para isso, apoiar-se-á na hipótese fornecida pela Teoria Geral dos Sistemas, de Bertalanffy (2006), no qual se refere que os princípios que regem um determinado sistema independem das particularidades de seus componentes mas do modo como estes se inter-relacionam. Assim, a convergência entre estas três teorias passa a ser válida uma vez que o tipo de sistema tratado em todas seja caracterizado por: 1) irreversibilidade da trajetória de suas mudanças, 2) com oposição à ideia de equilíbrio e 3) a introdução de uma abordagem evolucionária e com tempo histórico. Este trabalho se inicia a partir da introdução ao debate entre os paradigmas da mecânica e sistêmico surgido no ramo da física. Na sequência apresenta os referenciais teóricos do institucionalismo de Veblen e da teoria das estruturas dissipativas e autopoiese. Em seguida é feito a análise de convergência entre os arcabouços teóricos vistos, e verificado como as abordagens de Prigogine juntamente com a de Maturana e Varela podem contribuir para o estudo das instituições. Por fim é mostrado como a abordagem desenvolvida neste trabalho pode auxiliar no tratamento de questões relacionadas à economia, com ênfase dada especificamente no que tange a economia monetária.

Measuring and Controlling the Chaotic Motion of Profits

The study of economic systems has generated deep interest in exploring the complexity of chaotic motions in economy. Due to important developments in nonlinear dynamics, the last two decades have witnessed strong revival of interest in nonlinear endogenous business chaotic models. The inability to predict the behavior of dynamical systems in the presence of chaos suggests the application of chaos control methods, when we are more interested in obtaining regular behavior. In the present article, we study a specific economic model from the literature. More precisely, a system of three ordinary differential equations gather the variables of profits, reinvestments and financial flow of borrowings in the structure of a firm. Firstly, using results of symbolic dynamics, we characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences, associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the model dynamics. The analysis of the variation of this numerical invariant, in some realistic system parameter region, allows us to quantify and to distinguish different chaotic regimes. Finally, we show that complicated behavior arising from the chaotic firm model can be controlled without changing its original properties and the dynamics can be turned into the desired attracting time periodic motion (a stable steady state or into a regular cycle). The orbit stabilization is illustrated by the application of a feedback control technique initially developed by Romeiras et al. [1992]. This work provides another illustration of how our understanding of economic models can be enhanced by the theoretical and numerical investigation of nonlinear dynamical systems modeled by ordinary differential equations.

Strong and weak Allee effects and chaotic dynamics in Richards' growths

In this paper we define and investigate generalized Richards' growth models with strong and weak Allee effects and no Allee effect. We prove the transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, depending on the implicit conditions, which involve the several parameters considered in the models. New classes of functions describing the existence or not of Allee effect are introduced, a new dynamical approach to Richards' populational growth equation is established. These families of generalized Richards' functions are proportional to the right hand side of the generalized Richards' growth models proposed. Subclasses of strong and weak Allee functions and functions with no Allee effect are characterized. The study of their bifurcation structure is presented in detail, this analysis is done based on the configurations of bifurcation curves and symbolic dynamics techniques. Generically, the dynamics of these functions are classified in the following types: extinction, semi-stability, stability, period doubling, chaos, chaotic semistability and essential extinction. We obtain conditions on the parameter plane for the existence of a weak Allee effect region related to the appearance of cusp points. To support our results, we present fold and flip bifurcations curves and numerical simulations of several bifurcation diagrams.

Assessment of data-driven modeling strategies for water delivery canals

The aim of this paper is to develop models for experimental open-channel water delivery systems and assess the use of three data-driven modeling tools toward that end. Water delivery canals are nonlinear dynamical systems and thus should be modeled to meet given operational requirements while capturing all relevant dynamics, including transport delays. Typically, the derivation of first principle models for open-channel systems is based on the use of Saint-Venant equations for shallow water, which is a time-consuming task and demands for specific expertise. The present paper proposes and assesses the use of three data-driven modeling tools: artificial neural networks, composite local linear models and fuzzy systems. The canal from Hydraulics and Canal Control Nucleus (A parts per thousand vora University, Portugal) will be used as a benchmark: The models are identified using data collected from the experimental facility, and then their performances are assessed based on suitable validation criterion. The performance of all models is compared among each other and against the experimental data to show the effectiveness of such tools to capture all significant dynamics within the canal system and, therefore, provide accurate nonlinear models that can be used for simulation or control. The models are available upon request to the authors.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Complete synchronization and delayed synchronization in couplings

We consider a general coupling of two identical chaotic dynamical systems, and we obtain the conditions for synchronization. We consider two types of synchronization: complete synchronization and delayed synchronization. Then, we consider four different couplings having different behaviors regarding their ability to synchronize either completely or with delay: Symmetric Linear Coupled System, Commanded Linear Coupled System, Commanded Coupled System with delay and symmetric coupled system with delay. The values of the coupling strength for which a coupling synchronizes define its Window of synchronization. We obtain analytically the Windows of complete synchronization, and we apply it for the considered couplings that admit complete synchronization. We also obtain analytically the Window of chaotic delayed synchronization for the only considered coupling that admits a chaotic delayed synchronization, the commanded coupled system with delay. At last, we use four different free chaotic dynamics (based in tent map, logistic map, three-piecewise linear map and cubic-like map) in order to observe numerically the analytically predicted windows.

Shannon entropy analysis of the genome code

This paper studies the chromosome information of twenty five species, namely, mammals, fishes, birds, insects, nematodes, fungus, and one plant. A quantifying scheme inspired in the state space representation of dynamical systems is formulated. Based on this algorithm, the information of each chromosome is converted into a bidimensional distribution. The plots are then analyzed and characterized by means of Shannon entropy. The large volume of information is integrated by averaging the lengths and entropy quantities of each species. The results can be easily visualized revealing quantitative global genomic information.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.