Dynamic Factor Models and Forecasting Finnish Macroeconomic Variables

In recent years, thanks to developments in information technology, large-dimensional datasets have been increasingly available. Researchers now have access to thousands of economic series and the information contained in them can be used to create accurate forecasts and to test economic theories. To exploit this large amount of information, researchers and policymakers need an appropriate econometric model.Usual time series models, vector autoregression for example, cannot incorporate more than a few variables. There are two ways to solve this problem: use variable selection procedures or gather the information contained in the series to create an index model. This thesis focuses on one of the most widespread index model, the dynamic factor model (the theory behind this model, based on previous literature, is the core of the first part of this study), and its use in forecasting Finnish macroeconomic indicators (which is the focus of the second part of the thesis). In particular, I forecast economic activity indicators (e.g. GDP) and price indicators (e.g. consumer price index), from 3 large Finnish datasets. The first dataset contains a large series of aggregated data obtained from the Statistics Finland database. The second dataset is composed by economic indicators from Bank of Finland. The last dataset is formed by disaggregated data from Statistic Finland, which I call micro dataset. The forecasts are computed following a two steps procedure: in the first step I estimate a set of common factors from the original dataset. The second step consists in formulating forecasting equations including the factors extracted previously. The predictions are evaluated using relative mean squared forecast error, where the benchmark model is a univariate autoregressive model. The results are dataset-dependent. The forecasts based on factor models are very accurate for the first dataset (the Statistics Finland one), while they are considerably worse for the Bank of Finland dataset. The forecasts derived from the micro dataset are still good, but less accurate than the ones obtained in the first case. This work leads to multiple research developments. The results here obtained can be replicated for longer datasets. The non-aggregated data can be represented in an even more disaggregated form (firm level). Finally, the use of the micro data, one of the major contributions of this thesis, can be useful in the imputation of missing values and the creation of flash estimates of macroeconomic indicator (nowcasting).

Effect of primary system damping on the optimum design of an untuned viscous dynamic vibration absorber

Explicit criteria for the optimum design of an untuned viscous dynamic vibration absorber are developed for the case of a viscously damped single degree of freedom springmass system. It is shown that for the particular case of an undamped main system, the results reduce to the classical ones obtained by using the concept of a fixed point on the response curve.

Analysis of forest soil chemistry and hydrology with a dynamic model ACIDIC.

In this study we analyze how the ion concentrations in forest soil solution are determined by hydrological and biogeochemical processes. A dynamic model ACIDIC was developed, including processes common to dynamic soil acidification models. The model treats up to eight interacting layers and simulates soil hydrology, transpiration, root water and nutrient uptake, cation exchange, dissolution and reactions of Al hydroxides in solution, and the formation of carbonic acid and its dissociation products. It includes also a possibility to a simultaneous use of preferential and matrix flow paths, enabling the throughfall water to enter the deeper soil layers in macropores without first reacting with the upper layers. Three different combinations of routing the throughfall water via macro- and micropores through the soil profile is presented. The large vertical gradient in the observed total charge was simulated succesfully. According to the simulations, gradient is mostly caused by differences in the intensity of water uptake, sulfate adsorption and organic anion retention at the various depths. The temporal variations in Ca and Mg concentrations were simulated fairly well in all soil layers. For H+, Al and K there were much more variation in the observed than in the simulated concentrations. Flow in macropores is a possible explanation for the apparent disequilibrium of the cation exchange for H+ and K, as the solution H+ and K concentrations have great vertical gradients in soil. The amount of exchangeable H+ increased in the O and E horizons and decreased in the Bs1 and Bs2 horizons, the net change in whole soil profile being a decrease. A large part of the decrease of the exchangeable H+ in the illuvial B horizon was caused by sulfate adsorption. The model produces soil water amounts and solution ion concentrations which are comparable to the measured values, and it can be used in both hydrological and chemical studies of soils.

Effect of stacking fault energy on the dynamic recrystallization during hot working of FCC metals: A study using processing maps

The influence of stacking fault energy (SFE) on the mechanism of dynamic recrystallization (DRX) during hot deformation of FCC metals is examined in the light of results from the power dissipation maps. The DRX domain for high SFE metals like Al and Ni occurred at homologous temperature below 0·7 and strain rates of 0·001 s−1 while for low SFE metals like Cu and Pb the corresponding values are higher than 0·8 and 100 s−1. The peak efficiencies of power dissipation are 50% and below 40% respectively. A simple model which considers the rate of interface formation (nucleation) involving dislocation generation and simultaneous recovery and the rate of interface migration (growth) occurring with the reduction in interface energy as the driving force, has been proposed to account for the effect of SFE on DRX. The calculations reveal that in high SFE metals, interface migration controls DRX while the interface formation is the controlling factor in low SFE metals. In the latter case, the occurrence of flow softening and oscillations could be accounted for by this model.

Non-linear Dynamic Analysis of a Piezoelectrically Actuated Flapping Wing

An energy method is used in order to derive the non-linear equations of motion of a smart flapping wing. Flapping wing is actuated from the root by a PZT unimorph in the piezofan configuration. Dynamic characteristics of the wing, having the same size as dragonfly Aeshna Multicolor, are analyzed using numerical simulations. It is shown that flapping angle variations of the smart flapping wing are similar to the actual dragonfly wing for a specific feasible voltage. An unsteady aerodynamic model based on modified strip theory is used to obtain the aerodynamic forces. It is found that the smart wing generates sufficient lift to support its own weight and carry a small payload. It is therefore a potential candidate for flapping wing of micro air vehicles.

Inelastic dynamic response of R.C. beam column joints by using B.E.M.

A BEM formulation to obtain the inelastic response of R.C. Beam-Column joints subjected to sinusoidal loading along the boundary is presented. The equations of motion are written along with kinematical and constitutive equations. The dynamic reciprocal theorem is presented and the temporal dependence is removed by assuming steady state response.

Sign Of The Order Parameter In Oriented Systems And Its Utility In The Study Of The Dynamic Properties Of Molecules

Novel one and two dimensional NMR techniques are proposed and utilized for the determination of the signs of the order parameters used for the study of the mobility of the fatty acid chains. The experiments designed to extract this information involve the use of the intensities of the side bands in the spectra of oriented systems spinning at the magic angle. Advantages of the two dimensional technique over the one dimensional method are discussed. The utility of the method in the study of the dynamic properties of membranes and model systems is pointed out.

A finite element analysis of dynamic fracture initiation by ductile failure mechanisms in a 4340 steel

In some recent dropweight impact experiments [5] with pre-notched bend specimens of 4340 steel, it was observed that considerable crack tunneling occurred in the interior of the specimen prior to gross fracture initiation on the free surfaces. The final failure of the side ligaments happened because of shear lip formation. The tunneled region is characterized by a flat, fibrous fracture surface. In this paper, the experiments of [5] (corresponding to 5 m/s impact speed) are analyzed using a plane strain, dynamic finite element procedure. The Gurson constitutive model that accounts for the ductile failure mechanisms of micro-void nucleation, growth and coalescence is employed. The time at which incipient failure was observed near the notch tip in this computation, and the value of the dynamic J-integral, J d, at this time, compare reasonably well with experiments. This investigation shows that J-controlled stress and deformation fields are established near the notch tip whenever J d , increases with time. Also, it is found that the evolution of micro-mechanical quantities near the notch root can be correlated with the time variation of J d .The strain rate and the adiabatic temperature rise experienced at the notch root are examined. Finally, spatial variations of stresses and deformations are analyzed in detail.

Characterisation of dynamic recrystallisation in nickel using processing map for hot deformation

The hot deformation behaviour of polycrystalline nickel has been characterised in the temperature range 750-1200-degrees-C and strain rate range 0.0003-100 s-1 using processing maps developed in the basis of the dynamic materials model. The efficiency of power dissipation, given by [2m/(m + 1)]. where m is the strain rate sensitivity, is plotted as a function of temperature and strain rate to obtain a processing map. A domain of dynamic recrystallisation has been identified, with a peak efficiency of 31% occurring at 925-degrees-C and 1 s-1. The published results are in agreement with the prediction of the processing map. The variations of efficiency of power dissipation with temperature and strain rate in the dynamic recrystallisation domain are identical to the corresponding variation of hot ductility. The stress-strain curves exhibited a single peak in a single peak in the dynamic recrystallisation domain, whereas multiple peaks and 'drooping' stress-strain curves were observed at lower and higher strain rates, respectively. The results are explained on the basis of a simple model which considers dynamic recrystallisation in terms of rates of interface formation (nucleation) and migration (growth). It is shown that dynamic recrystallisation in nickel is controlled by the rate of nucleation, which is slower than the rate of migration. The rate of nucleation itself depends on the process of thermal recovery by climb, which in turn depends on self-diffusion.

Dynamic response of latex modified concrete machine foundations

New materials in concrete constructions have been widely used to improve various properties such as impact resistance, strength and durability. Polymer modified concrete is one of the new materials which has been developed for potential application in the construction industry. This Paper describes the use of polymer latex for foundation blocks subjected to dynamic loads. Experiments were conducted using ordinary concrete and latex modified concrete footings of three different thicknesses, for three static loads at four excitation levels. Experimental results have revealed that the amplitude of resonance is reduced considerably in the latex modified concrete footings.

Dynamic growth of tensile cracks by ductile and brittle fracture mechanisms in a viscoplastic material

In this paper, a finite element analysis of steady-state dynamic crack growth under Mode I, plane strain, small-scale yielding conditions is performed in a rate dependent plastic material characterized by the over-stress model. The main objective of the paper is to obtain theoretically the dependence of dynamic fracture toughness on crack speed. Crack propagation due to a ductile (micro-void) mechanism or a brittle (cleavage) mechanism, as well as transition from one mode to another are considered. The conversion from ductile to brittle has been observed experimentally but has received very little attention using analytical methods. Local fracture criteria based on strains and stresses are used to describe ductile and brittle fracture mechanisms. The results obtained in this paper are in general agreement with micro-structural observations of mode conversion during fracture initiation. Finally, the particular roles played by material rate sensitivity and inertia are examined in some detail.

Dynamic Structure Factor of Sponge Phases

We predict the dynamic light scattering intensity S(q,t) for the L3 phase (anomalous isotropic phase) of dilute surfactant solutions. Our results are based on a Landau-Ginzburg approach, which was previously used to explain the observed static structure factor S(q, 0). In the extreme limit of small q, we find a monoexponential decay with marginal or irrelevant hydrodynamic interactions. In most other regimes the decay of S(q,t) is strongly nonexponential; in one case, it is purely algebraic at long times.

Characteristics of Dynamic Recrystalization Domain in the Processing Map for Hot-Working of OFHC Coper

The constitutive flow behaviour of OFHC copper under working conditions is studied using hot compression in the temperature range 650 to 900-degrees-C and strain rate range 0.001 to 100 s-1. The variation of the efficiency of power dissipation given by [2m/(m + 1)] (where m is the strain rate sensitivity) with temperature and strain rate is represented in the form of a power dissipation map and interpreted on the basis of the Dynamic Materials Model. The map prominently exhibited a domain centered at 850-degrees-C and 100 s-1 with a peak efficiency of 35 %. On the basis of the correlation of variations of grain size, efficiency of power dissipation and hot workability with temperature, the domain is identified to represent dynamic recrystallization (DRX).

Dynamic response of a beam on elastic foundation of finite depth under a moving force

In this paper, dynamic response of an infinitely long beam resting on a foundation of finite depth, under a moving force is studied. The effect of foundation inertia is included in the analysis by modelling the foundation as a series of closely spaced axially vibrating rods of finite depth, fixed at the bottom and connected to the beam at the top. Viscous damping in the beam and foundation is included in the analysis. Steady state response of the beam-foundation system is obtained. Detailed numerical results are presented to study the effect of various parameters such as foundation mass, velocity of the moving load, damping and axial force on the beam. It is shown that foundation inertia can considerably reduce the critical velocity and can also amplify the beam response.