An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

Protection of horses against Culicoides biting midges in different housing systems in Switzerland

Species belonging to the Culicoides complexes (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae), obsoletus and pulicaris, in Switzerland, are potential vectors of both bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV). The epidemic of BTV in 2006 and 2007 in Europe has highlighted the risk of introduction and spread of vector-borne diseases in previously non-endemic areas. As a measure of prevention, as part of an integrated control programme in the event of an outbreak of African horse sickness (AHS), it is of utmost importance to prevent, or substantially reduce, contact between horses and Culicoides. The aim of the present study was to compare the effect of three protection systems, net, fan, repellent, or combinations thereof, with regard to their potential to reduce contact between horses and Culicoides. Three different equine housing systems, including individual boxes (BX), group housing systems (GR), and individual boxes with permanently accessible paddock (BP) were used. The efficacy of the protection systems were evaluated by comparing the total number counts of collected female Culicoides, of non-blood-fed and blood-fed Culicoides, respectively, with UV black light traps. The study was conducted over 3 summer months during 2012 and 2013 each and focused on the efficacy and practicality of the protection systems. The repellent was tested in 2012 only and not further investigated in 2013, as it showed no significant effect in reducing Culicoides collected in the light traps. Net protection system provided the best overall protection for the total number of female Culicoides, non-blood-fed and blood-fed Culicoides in all tested housing systems. The net, with a pore size of 0.1825 mm(2), reduced the total number of Culicoides collected in the housing systems BP, GR and BX by 98%, 85% and 67%, respectively. However, in the GR housing system, no significant difference between the effectiveness of the fan and the net were determined for any of the three Culicoides categories. The results of the present study demonstrated that horse owners can substantially reduce their horses' exposure to Culicoides, by using net protection in the housing systems BX, BP and GR. In GR housing systems, protection against Culicoides using a fan is also recommended.

Functional and discrete digital sustainability within the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present the new global agenda by the United Nations for the next 15 years from 2016 to 2030. In this research paper we examine how digital resources may contribute to the achievement of the SDGs. Based on a broad literature review we argue functional digital sustainability supports the SDGs while discrete digital sustainability is required to create and progress knowledge necessary to advance the SDGs. First we explain the perspectives of functional and discrete sustainability; secondly we map the two perspectives onto the 17 SDGs with examples incorporating both perspectives of digital sustainability. We conclude that digital sustainability should encompass both perspectives in order to exploit the full potential of information systems in regard to sustainability transformations.

Distribution of quality adjusted life expectancy: A systems approach

Statistical methods are developed which assess survival data for two attributes; (1) prolongation of life, (2) quality of life. Health state transition probabilities correspond to prolongation of life and are modeled as a discrete-time semi-Markov process. Imbedded within the sojourn time of a particular health state are the quality of life transitions. They reflect events which differentiate perceptions of pain and suffering over a fixed time period. Quality of life transition probabilities are derived from the assumptions of a simple Markov process. These probabilities depend on the health state currently occupied and the next health state to which a transition is made. Utilizing the two forms of attributes the model has the capability to estimate the distribution of expected quality adjusted life years (in addition to the distribution of expected survival times). The expected quality of life can also be estimated within the health state sojourn time making more flexible the assessment of utility preferences. The methods are demonstrated on a subset of follow-up data from the Beta Blocker Heart Attack Trial (BHAT). This model contains the structure necessary to make inferences when assessing a general survival problem with a two dimensional outcome. ^

Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^

(Table S2) Cell concentrations of individual and combined Alexandrium spp. and phylogenetic groups as obtained by qPCR assay and Utermöhl counts, as well as particulate PSP toxin concentrations from discrete water depths

Molecular methods provide promising tools for routine detection and quantification of toxic microalgae in plankton samples. To this end, novel TaqMan minor groove binding probes and primers targeting the small (SSU) or large (LSU) ribosomal subunit (rRNA) were developed for two species of the marine dinoflagellate genus Alexandrium (A. minutum, A. tamutum) and for three groups/ribotypes of the A. tamarense species complex: Group I/North American (NA), Group II/Mediterranean (ME) and Group III/Western European (WE). Primers and probes for real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) were species-specific and highly efficient when tested in qPCR assays for cross-validation with pure DNA from cultured Alexandrium strains. Suitability of the qPCR assays as molecular tools for the detection and estimation of relative cell abundances of Alexandrium species and groups was evaluated from samples of natural plankton assemblages along the Scottish east coast. The results were compared with inverted microscope cell counts (Utermöhl technique) of Alexandrium spp. and associated paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxin concentrations. The qPCR assays indicated that A. tamarense (Group I) and A. tamutum were the most abundant Alexandrium taxa and both were highly positively correlated with PSP toxin content of plankton samples. Cells of A. tamarense (Group III) were present at nearly all stations but in low abundance. Alexandrium minutum and A. tamarense (Group II) cells were not detected in any of the samples, thereby arguing for their absence from the specific North Sea region, at least at the time of the survey. The sympatric occurrence of A. tamarense Group I and Group III gives further support to the hypothesis that the groups/ribotypes of the A. tamarense species complex are cryptic species rather than variants belonging to the same species.

Chemical and isotopic compositions of rocks and minerals from the Palenyi Island, Por'ya Guba (Bay), White Sea

Hypersthene-garnet-sillimanite-quartz enclaves were studied in orthopyroxene-plagioclase and orthopyroxene-clinopyroxene crystalline schists and gneisses from shear zones exposed in the Palenyi Island within the Early Proterozoic Belomorian Mobile Belt. Qualitative analysis of mineral assemblages indicates that these rocks were metamorphosed to the granulite facies (approximately 900°C and 10-11 kbar). Oxygen isotopic composition was determined in rock-forming minerals composing zones of the enclaves of various mineral and chemical composition. Closure temperatures of the isotopic systems obtained by methods of oxygen isotopic thermometry are close to values obtained with mineralogical geothermometers (garnet-orthopyroxene and garnet-biotite) and correspond to the high-temperature granulite facies (860-900°C). Identified systematic variations in d18O values were determined in the same minerals from zones of different mineral composition. Inasmuch as these zones are practically in contact with one another, these variations in d18O cannot be explained by primary isotopic heterogeneity of the protolith. Model calculations of the extent and trend of d18O variations in minerals suggest that fluid-rock interaction at various integral fluid/rock ratios in discrete zones was the only mechanism that could generate the zoning. This demonstrates that focused fluid flux could occur in lower crustal shear zones. Preservation of high-temperature isotopic equilibria of minerals testifies that the episode of fluid activity at the peak of metamorphism was very brief.

Territorial Intelligence of Vulnerability Systems 2- Sustainable Modelling of Globalization Challenge

Globalization as progress of economic development has increased population socioeconomical vulnerability when unequal wealth distribution within economic development process constitutes the main rule, with widening the gap between rich and poors by environmental pricing. Econological vulnerability is therefore increasing too, as dangerous substance and techniques should produce polluted effluents and industrial or climatic risk increasing (Woloszyn, Quenault, Faburel, 2012). To illustrate and model this process, we propose to introduce an analogical induction-model to describe both vulnerability situations and associated resilience procedures. At this aim, we first develop a well-known late 80?s model of socio-economic crack-up, known as 'Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars', which presents economics as a social extension of natural energy systems. This last, also named 'E-model', is constituted by three passive components, potential energy, kinetic energy, and energy dissipation, thus allowing economical data to be treated as a thermodynamical system. To extend this model to social and ecological sustainability pillars, we propose to built an extended E(Economic)-S(Social)-O(Organic) model, based on the three previous components, as an open model considering feedbacks as evolution sources. An applicative illustration of this model will then be described, through this summer's american severe drought event analysis

Territorial Intelligence of Vulnerability Systems 2- Sustainable Modelling of Globalization Challenge

Globalization as progress of economic development has increased population socioeconomical vulnerability when unequal wealth distribution within economic development process constitutes the main rule, with widening the gap between rich and poors by environmental pricing. Econological vulnerability is therefore increasing too, as dangerous substance and techniques should produce polluted effluents and industrial or climatic risk increasing (Woloszyn, Quenault, Faburel, 2012). To illustrate and model this process, we propose to introduce an analogical induction-model to describe both vulnerability situations and associated resilience procedures. At this aim, we first develop a well-known late 80?s model of socio-economic crack-up, known as 'Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars', which presents economics as a social extension of natural energy systems. This last, also named 'E-model', is constituted by three passive components, potential energy, kinetic energy, and energy dissipation, thus allowing economical data to be treated as a thermodynamical system. To extend this model to social and ecological sustainability pillars, we propose to built an extended E(Economic)-S(Social)-O(Organic) model, based on the three previous components, as an open model considering feedbacks as evolution sources. An applicative illustration of this model will then be described, through this summer's american severe drought event analysis