Concepciones de un grupo de profesores de inglés de Venezuela sobre la expansión, uso y enseñanza del inglés como idioma internacional

Esta investigación, orientada bajo un enfoque cualitativo-interpretativo, describe las concepciones de un grupo de setenta y ocho profesores de inglés de los niveles de Educación Media General y Educación Universitaria de la ciudad de San Cristóbal, Venezuela, sobre la expansión, uso y enseñanza del inglés como idioma internacional. Desde una perspectiva crítica y posestructuralista en la que se concibe al inglés como un fenómeno social cargado de ideologías y valores culturales, este estudio pretende dar cuenta de las conexiones existentes entre el inglés y las fuerzas económicas, políticas, sociales e ideológicas que subyacen detrás de su expansión, uso y enseñanza en el mundo (Holliday, 2005, 2006, 2013; Pennycook, 1994; Phillipson, 1992, 2010), y la forma en como estas conexiones son percibidas por los profesores de inglés de un contexto específico de la periferia (Canagarajah, 1999a). Para la exploración en profundidad del fenómeno se adopta en este estudio el método fenomenológico (Colás, 1998b) como propuesta metodológica para descubrir la forma en que los profesores de inglés de este contexto específico comprenden el fenómeno y conciben la expansión, uso y enseñanza del inglés como idioma internacional. Como instrumentos para la recolección de los datos se utilizan dos cuestionarios con preguntas abiertas y cerradas administrados por internet a los participantes, y entrevistas semi-estructuradas cara a cara en profundidad con nueve profesores seleccionados como informantes clave. Para el análisis de los datos se toma el proceso analítico de Strauss y Corbin (2002), proceso que apunta hacia la generación inductiva de teoría a través de la comparación constante de los datos para formar categorías. En este estudio, el análisis de los datos comprende un proceso integral y cíclico que toma en cuenta los datos provenientes de todos los participantes y de todos los instrumentos de recolección. También se hace uso técnico del software Atlas.ti versión 6.0 para el almacenamiento y xivmanipulación sistemática de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas en profundidad. Entre los hallazgos se devela una complejidad enmarcada en el estudio de las concepciones de los profesores de este contexto sociocultural específico que resultan ser fluidas y en oportunidades simultáneamente contradictorias entre sí sobre la expansión, uso y enseñanza del inglés como idioma internacional. En tal sentido, los resultados reflejan poca conciencia crítica de los participantes sobre la hegemonía del inglés en el mundo y su percepción del idioma como un asunto necesario y beneficioso para la comunicación internacional, de allí que consideren su enseñanza y aprendizaje como necesarios en todos los contextos del mundo. Este estudio también expresa una concientización de los participantes en algunos aspectos específicos como su sentido de propiedad del idioma y su percepción como hablantes y docentes competentes del inglés en un contexto específico. Asimismo, revela algunos asuntos sociopolíticos enmarcados en la dicotomía 'nativo' - 'no nativo' del inglés fundamentado en el concepto del 'native speakerism'. Al mismo tiempo, muestra la concepción de los participantes sobre la enseñanza del inglés como una actividad apolítica y neutral aunque simultáneamente refleja su inclinación hacia la promoción del pensamiento crítico y reflexivo de los estudiantes a través de sus clases de inglés

Late Quaternary benthic foraminiferal record of the Bounty Trough, east of New Zealand

The Bounty Trough, east of New Zealand, lies along the southeastern edge of the present-day Subtropical Front (STF), and is a major conduit via the Bounty Channel, for terrigenous sediment supply from the uplifted Southern Alps to the abyssal Bounty Fan. Census data on 65 benthic foraminiferal faunas (>63 µm) from upper bathyal (ODP 1119), lower bathyal (DSDP 594) and abyssal (ODP 1122) sequences, test and refine existing models for the paleoceanographic and sedimentary history of the trough through the last 150 ka (marine isotope stages, MIS 6-1). Cluster analysis allows recognition of six species groups, whose distribution patterns coincide with bathymetry, the climate cycles and displaced turbidite beds. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis and comparisons with modern faunal patterns suggest that the groups are most strongly influenced by food supply (organic carbon flux), and to a lesser extent by bottom water oxygen and factors relating to sediment type. Major faunal changes at upper bathyal depths (1119) probably resulted from cycles of counter-intuitive seaward-landward migrations of the Southland Front (SF) (north-south sector of the STF). Benthic foraminiferal changes suggest that lower nutrient, cool Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) was overhead in warm intervals, and higher nutrient-bearing, warm neritic Subtropical Surface Water (STW) was overhead in cold intervals. At lower bathyal depths (594), foraminiferal changes indicate increased glacial productivity and lowered bottom oxygen, attributed to increased upwelling and inflow of cold, nutrient-rich, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and shallowing of the oxygen-minimum zone (upper Circum Polar Deep Water, CPDW). The observed cyclical benthic foraminiferal changes are not a result of associations migrating up and down the slope, as glacial faunas (dominated by Globocassidulina canalisuturata and Eilohedra levicula at upper and lower bathyal depths, respectively) are markedly different from those currently living in the Bounty Trough. On the abyssal Bounty Fan (1122), faunal changes correlate most strongly with grain size, and are attributed to varying amounts of mixing of displaced and in-situ faunas. Most of the displaced foraminifera in turbiditic sand beds are sourced from mid-outer shelf depths at the head of the Bounty Channel. Turbidity currents were more prevalent during, but not restricted to, glacial intervals.

Late Quaternary carbonate and isotope stratigraphy of DSDP Site 90-594 east of South Island, New Zealand

The late Quaternary sequence off eastern South Island, New Zealand, consists of ~100 m of alternating bluish gray pelagic oozes and greenish gray hemipelagic oozes that extend uninterruptedly back to the Brunhes/Matuyama boundary (0.73 m.y.). A very high resolution (~2400 yr.) record of sediment texture, calcium carbonate content, and planktonic and benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope composition demonstrates an in-phase cyclical fluctuation between the sedimentary parameters that closely correspond to the pelagic-hemipelagic sedimentation cycles and the isotope composition. Pelagic oozes, formed during interglacial periods of high eustatic sea level, are characterized by calcareous microfossils, relative enrichment in sand and clay sizes, high carbonate contents, reduced delta18O values, and increased delta13C values. Hemipelagic oozes, associated with glacial episodes and lowered eustatic sea level, include common terrigenous material and siliceous microfossils, are enriched in silt sizes, have low carbonate contents, high delta18O values, and low delta13C values. The history of alpine glaciations and associated erosion of the South Island of New Zealand, as expressed by the appearance of hemipelagic oozes, can be correlated directly with the major fluctuations of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as expressed by the influence of eustatic sea-level changes on the oxygen isotope composition of both planktonic and benthic foraminifers. This high-accumulation-rate record contains conspicuous intervals of highfrequency, high-amplitude isotope variability including the presence of multiple glacial/interglacial intervals within single isotope stages, and offers one of the best sections cored to date for detailed study of the evolution and history of climate change over the last 0.75 m.y.

(Table 1) CaCO3, terrigenous matter and Corg calculations from DSDP Hole 75-532B

Samples taken at 10 cm intervals from DSDP Core 532B-17 contain variations in carbonate, opal, organic carbon, and terrigenous components that correlate with light-dark cycles in sediment color. The core site, at 1300 m water depth, is well above the CCD, yet the color variations appear to result largely from cyclical fluctuations in carbonate dissolution, which was greater during glacial periods. Higher concentrations of organic carbon and of terrigenous sediment components correlate with enhanced carbonate dissolution, but opal concentrations inversely correlate and suggest that biological productivity at this site diminished during glacial periods. A complicated glacial-interglacial picture emerges from the data. In interglacial times, upwelling associated with the Benguela Current produced abundant opaline material, organic matter was fairly well preserved, and carbonate was only moderately dissolved. In glacial times, the upwelling core shifted as sea level fell and winds intensified. Productivity in the waters over Site 532 decreased, but lateral supply of oxidizable organic matter enhanced carbonate dissolution, giving rise to light-dark cycles in these sediments.

Biosiliceous sedimentation at ODP Site 128-798

Upper Pliocene through Holocene sediments recovered at Site 798 in the Japan Sea (Oki Ridge) exhibit rhythmic variation in weight percent biogenic opal at intervals of ~5 m and periods equivalent to the 41-k.y. obliquity cycle. Variance at 17 and 100 k.y. is observed prior to 1.3 Ma. These cycles are also clearly defined by log data and correspond to clusters of decimeter-scale dark-colored sediment units alternating with clusters of light-colored units. Opal content varies between 3% and 22% between 0 and 1.3 Ma and from 3% to 43% between 1.3 and 2.6 Ma. Long-term opal accumulation rates average 1.8 g/cm**2/k.y. in the late Pliocene/early Pleistocene and decrease by about 60% at ~1.3 Ma. Rough calculations suggest that opal accumulation rates increased and terrigenous flux decreased during the Holocene relative to the last glacial period. Our age control is not yet sufficient to allow a similar analysis of the 41-k.y. cyclicity in opal content throughout the Pleistocene. Stable isotope results from planktonic foraminifers confirm previous suggestions of a strong surface-water freshening event during isotope stage 2; however, this episode appears to be unique during the Pleistocene. Benthic foraminifers are depleted in 18O during parts of glacial stages 2 and 6 relative to adjacent interglacials, suggesting unusual warming and/or freshening of deep waters. Collectively, the stable isotope and %opal data are consistent with continuing isolation of the Japan Sea during the Quaternary with important transitions occurring at 1.3, 0.7 to 1.0, and 0.2 to 0.3 Ma. Complex relationships among the stable isotope results, %opal data, and sediment characteristics such as color and organic and inorganic carbon content preclude development of a simple model to explain cyclical sedimentation. Opal maxima occur within both light and dark intervals and the processes that control surface-water productivity are at times decoupled from the factors that regulate deep-water dysaerobia. We suggest that water column overturn is controlled largely by regional atmospheric circulation that must also have an as yet poorly understood effect on surface-water fertility.

Late Cretaceous planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from the Exmouth Plateau, ODP Sites 122-762 and 122-763, eastern Indian Ocean

The evolution of planktonic foraminifera during the Late Cretaceous is marked in the Santonian by the disappearance of complex morphotypes (the marginotruncanids), and the contemporary increasing importance and diversification of another group of complex taxa, the globotruncanids. Upper Turonian to lower Campanian planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from Holes 762C and 763B (Ocean Drilling Program, Leg 122, Exmouth Plateau, 47°S palaeolatitude) were studied in detail to evaluate the compositional variations at the genus and species level based on the assumption that, in the Cretaceous oceans as in the modern, any faunal change was associated with changes in the characteristics and the degree of stability of the oceanic surface waters. Three major groups were recognised based on gross morphology, and following the assumption that Cretaceous planktonic foraminifera, although extinct, had life-history strategies comparable to those of modern planktonics: 1 - r-selected opportunists; 2 - k-selected specialists; 3 - r/k intermediate morphotypes which include all genera that display a range of trophic strategies in-between opportunist and specialist taxa. Although planktonic foraminiferal assemblages are characterised by a progressive appearance of complex taxa, this trend is discontinuous. Variation in number of species and specimens within genera has allowed recognition of five discrete intervals each of them reflecting different oceanic conditions based on fluctuations in diversity and abundance of the major morphotypes. Planktonic forms show cyclical fluctuations in diversity and abundance of cold (r-strategists) and warm taxa (k-strategists), perhaps representing alternating phases of unstable conditions (suggesting a weakly stratified upper water column in a mesotrophic environment), and well-stratified surface and near-surface waters (indicating a more oligotrophic environment). Interval 1, middle Turonian to early Coniacian in age, is dominated by the r/k intermediate morphotypes which alternate with r-strategists. These cyclical alternations are used to identify three additional subintervals. Interval 2, aged middle to late Coniacian, is characterised by the increasing number of species and relative abundance of k-strategists. After this maximum diversification the k-strategists show a progressive decrease reaching a minimum value in Interval 3 (early to late Santonian), which corresponds to the extinction of the genus Marginotruncana. In the Interval 4, latest Santonian in age, the k-strategists, represented mainly by the genera Globotruncana, increase again in diversity and abundance. The last Interval 5 (early Campanian) is dominated by juvenile globotruncanids and r-strategists which fluctuate in opposite phase. The positive peak (Interval 2) related to the maximum diversification of warm taxa (k-strategists) in the Coniacian seems to correspond to a warmer episode. It is followed by a marked decrease in the relative abundance of warm taxa (k-strategists crisis) with a minimum in the late Santonian (Interval 3), reflecting a decrease in temperature. Detailed analysis of faunal variations allows the Santonian faunal turnover to be ascribed to a cooling event strong enough to cause the extinction of the marginotruncanids.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope record od IODP Hole 306-U1313

The Mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) was the time when quasi-periodic (? 100 kyr), high-amplitude glacial variability developed in the absence of any significant change in the character of orbital forcing, leading to the establishment of the characteristic pattern of late Pleistocene climate variability. It has long been known that the interval around 900 ka stands out as a critical point of the MPT, when major glaciations started occurring most notably in the northern hemisphere. Here we examine the record of climatic conditions during this significant interval, using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313). We have considered the time interval from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 23 to MIS 20 (910 to 790 ka). Our data indicate that interglacial MIS 21 was a climatically unstable period and was broken into four interstadial periods, which have been identified and correlated across the North Atlantic region. These extra peaks tend to contradict previous studies that interpreted the MIS 21 variability as consisting essentially of a linear response to cyclical changes in orbital parameters. Cooling events in the surface record during MIS 21 were associated with low benthic carbon isotope excursions, suggesting a coupling between surface temperature changes and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Time series analysis performed on the whole interval indicates that benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes have significant concentrations of spectral power centered on periods of 10.7 kyr and 6 kyr, which is in agreement with the second and forth harmonic of precession. The excellent correspondence between the foraminifera d18O records and insolation variations at the Equator in March and September suggests that a mechanism related to low-latitude precession variations, advected to the high latitudes by tropical convective processes, might have generated such a response. This scenario accounts for the presence of oscillations at frequencies equal to precession harmonics at Site U1313, as well as the occurrence of higher amplitude oscillations between the MIS22/21 transition and most of MIS 21, times of enhanced insolation variability.

(Supplement 3) Radar sounding observations including bedrock and surface elevation and ice thickness in the ASB region, Antarctica

The first Cenozoic ice sheets initiated in Antarctica from the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains and other highlands as a result of rapid global cooling ~34 million years ago. In the subsequent 20 million years, at a time of declining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and an evolving Antarctic circumpolar current, sedimentary sequence interpretation and numerical modelling suggest that cyclical periods of ice-sheet expansion to the continental margin, followed by retreat to the subglacial highlands, occurred up to thirty times. These fluctuations were paced by orbital changes and were a major influence on global sea levels. Ice-sheet models show that the nature of such oscillations is critically dependent on the pattern and extent of Antarctic topographic lowlands. Here we show that the basal topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin of East Antarctica, at present overlain by 2-4.5 km of ice, is characterized by a series of well-defined topographic channels within a mountain block landscape. The identification of this fjord landscape, based on new data from ice-penetrating radar, provides an improved under¬standing of the topography of the Aurora Subglacial Basin and its surroundings, and reveals a complex surface sculpted by a succession of ice-sheet configurations substantially different from today's. At different stages during its fluctuations, the edge of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet lay pinned along the margins of the Aurora Subglacial Basin, the upland boundaries of which are currently above sea level and the deepest parts of which are more than 1 km below sea level. Although the timing of the channel incision remains uncertain, our results suggest that the fjord landscape was carved by at least two ice- flow regimes of different scales and directions, each of which would have over-deepened existing topographic depressions, reversing valley floor slopes.

Trade, Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in East Asia: Why the Electronics Cycle Matters

Against the background of increasing regional trade and investment, there is growing interest in monetary and macroeconomic policy coordination in East Asia. Although there is a sizable literature on macroeconomic linkages among East Asian countries and the potential merit of policy coordination in the region, the existing studies tend to examine these issues exclusively in terms of macroeconomic variables and do not consider how these aggregate variables are influenced by one prominent feature of a number of East Asian economies: their heavy dependence on the electronics industry. Although active engagement in the global electronics industry has been a powerful growth engine for the Asian countries, it has also left their economies vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations in the world electronics market. As the cycle of the global electronics industry exerts profound impacts on the medium-term dynamics of the Asian economies, it is imperative to take an explicit account of its influence when studying the way in which the regional economies are linked to one another and how this relationship can be altered by a specific policy initiative. We illustrate the importance of this point by examining recent studies on: (1) trade competition between China andother Asian countries and the role of the Chinese renminbi therein; and (2) the effect offluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate on the regional economies.

Analogous Cycles with Lagged Co-movement: U.S. and East Asian Business Cycles

In selected East Asian economies, the behavior of detrended macroeconomic variables was found to be similar to that observed in the postwar U.S. economy. Consumption and investment are highly procyclical while the balance of trade and the price level are counter-cyclical in most of them. Labor productivity is procyclical in general. The high coherence between U.S. GDP and that of the East Asian economies suggests that business cycles in terms of frequency are also similar between the United States and East Asia. However, the GDP and consumption of East Asian countries do not necessarily co-move well with current U.S. and Japanese GDP and consumption, while East Asian consumption tends to co-move more with lagged U.S. and Japanese consumption.

Impact of knowledge brokering on performance heterogeneity among business models

Purpose – The strategic management literature lacks a comprehensive explanation as to why seemingly similar business models in the same industry perform differently. This paper strives to explain this phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach – The model is conceptualized and accompanied by a case study on the airline industry to explain knowledge brokerage that creates value from the effective utilization of knowledge resources acquired from intra- and inter-firm environments. Findings – The model explains a cyclical view of business model flexibility in which the knowledge-based resource accumulation of the business model is spread across the intra- and inter-firm environments. Knowledge brokerage strategies from the inter- and intra-firm environments result in improved performance of the business model. The flexibility that the business model acquires is determined by how efficiently resource accumulation is aligned with its external environment. Originality/value – The paper effectively integrates the concepts of knowledge brokerage and business models from a resource accumulation-based view and simultaneously arrives at the performance heterogeneity of seemingly similar business models within the same industry. It has performance implications for firms that start out without any distinct resources of their own, or that use an imitated business model, to attain better performance through business model evolution aligned with successful knowledge brokerage strategies. It adds to the resource accumulation literature by explaining how resources can be effectively acquired to create value.

Analysis and Quality Control from ARIMA Modeling

In this paper, we use ARIMA modelling to estimate a set of characteristics of a short-term indicator (for example, the index of industrial production), as trends, seasonal variations, cyclical oscillations, unpredictability, deterministic effects (as a strike), etc. Thus for each sector and product (more than 1000), we construct a vector of values corresponding to the above-mentioned characteristics, that can be used for data editing.

Estimating tremor in Vocal Fold Biomechanics for Neurological Disease characterisation

Neurological Diseases (ND) are affecting larger segments of aging population every year. Treatment is dependent on expensive accurate and frequent monitoring. It is well known that ND leave correlates in speech and phonation. The present work shows a method to detect alterations in vocal fold tension during phonation. These may appear either as hypertension or as cyclical tremor. Estimations of tremor may be produced by auto-regressive modeling of the vocal fold tension series in sustained phonation. The correlates obtained are a set of cyclicality coefficients, the frequency and the root mean square amplitude of the tremor. Statistical distributions of these correlates obtained from a set of male and female subjects are presented. Results from five study cases of female voice are also given.

Arquitectura antidesertización. Fluidez, biodiversidad, hidrofilia y transpirabilidad

La escasez de recursos, la desertización creciente y el previsible calentamiento global forman un escenario físico sin precedentes que urge la revisión de las relaciones entre arquitectura y agua en la urbanización de los paisajes secos, donde la aridez es el factor limitante principal. Cuestionar la idea de escasez, la de residuo o la de confort es el punto de partida para analizar la hidrología urbana. La condición ubicua y dinámica del agua, sus continuos cambios de estado y las implicaciones energéticas y ambientales involucradas argumentan a favor de un entendimiento integral, holístico, que aborda el diseño en relación a lo paisajístico, lo infraestructural y lo ambiental como un único ámbito de investigación, planteado en términos no solo de materia o de escasez, sino de energía. Este trabajo se interesa por el rol de la arquitectura en este proyecto conjunto, integral, del espacio físico con el ciclo hidrológico donde lo orgánico, lo geológico y lo atmosférico están ligados, y donde las categorías de lo hidrológico y lo hidráulico se confunden. Las profundas implicaciones culturales en la construcción de la naturaleza urbana y en la relación con el cuerpo humano adquieren especial notoriedad en los modelos de paisaje y de espacio público adoptados, importados desde las geografías húmedas, y en la estigmatización del agua desde los presupuestos del higienismo decimonónico, que conduce al hidrofugado general de una ciudad aséptica y estéril, que se extiende hasta las envolventes de fachadas estancas y los interiores blancos y satinados. La búsqueda de referentes salta la modernidad hacia contextos de baja energía como el oasis tradicional de las tierras áridas, que concilia la formación de un ecosistema productivo con la climatización de un espacio público exterior, o los ambientes aislados de la investigación aeroespacial, con ciclos cerrados de materia. Las condiciones del ciclo del agua, como la vinculación con el suelo y el territorio, la capacidad de disolver, de mezclarse y de lavar, su volumen variable y su papel como termorregulador señalan el interés que características físicas como la fluidez, la biodiversidad, la hidrofilia y la transpirabilidad tienen para una arquitectura con competencias hidráulicas y un espacio urbano transparente a los procesos del agua. La morfología y localización, la elección de escalas, jerarquías y relaciones entre espacios y la reformulación de los sistemas constructivos aparecen como herramientas y categorías propias desde las que proponer mejores respuestas a problemas como la deshidratación, la erosión y la contaminación. Una urbanización permeable e hidrófila que absorba el agua como un recurso valioso, nuevos ensamblajes para la bioquímica urbana (que introduzcan una idea de limpieza más próxima a fertilidad que a la desinfección), y el diseño de las condiciones atmosféricas a través de una arquitectura transpirable, que se empapa y rezuma frescor, son las claves de este nuevo proyecto. La ciudad se piensa como una síntesis multiescalar de espacios hidráulicos que aporta mayor resiliencia frente a la desertificación y las condiciones climáticas extremas, y mayor visibilidad en la escena pública al agua y a las inevitables conexiones entre ecología y economía. Pero también es una oportunidad para revisar las categorías disciplinares, para renovar las consistencias materiales, las calidades ambientales y las relaciones entre el cuerpo y el espacio. ABSTRACT The shortage of resources, foreseeable global warming and increasing desertification create an unprecedented prospect that question the existing relationships between water and architecture, in the urbanization of the arid lands. The awareness of the huge volumes of water that pierce unnoticed through urban space, their impact on the landscape as well as on environmental qualities, promote a design field where cultural, social and political considerations intersect, related to the body and the physical experience of space within the built environment. Fluidity and ubiquity, solution ability, variability and cyclical processes are characteristic of water as material, directly related with the fields of potential, chemical and thermal energy and the reality of its mass, as it occupies a changing volume in space. These are also the imposing cross sections that water introduces into the project, that argue in favor of a comprehensive and holistic understanding, of addressing design in relationship to landscape, infrastructure and environmental issues as a one single area of research. This work attempts to investigate how architecture, with its specific tools, can partake in the design of water cycle in the space, linking the organic, geological, and atmospheric, blurring the lines between hydrology and hydraulic. It aims to identify issues, within the continuous query associated with water, that deal with the architectural project and may have here better results. The deep cultural implications in the construction of urban nature and the relationship with the body, acquire special notoriety in the models of landscape and public space adopted, imported from humid geographies. Also in the stigmatization of water from the premises of nineteenth- century hygienics, which lead to the entire waterproofing of an aseptic and sterile city, to the sealed facades and white and polished interiors. The search for alternative references goes beyond modernity towards a mindset of low energy, as the traditional oasis of arid lands, which aims to reconcile the formation of a productive ecosystem with the conditioning of an outdoor public space, or the controlled environments of aerospace research, with closed cycles of matter. Fluidity, biodiversity, hydrophilicity and breathability are characteristic of an architecture with hydraulic competences. The distributing phenomenon of water, its necessary connectivity to the ground and to small cycles in the ecosystems, shows strong affinities with an infrastructural architecture, as an alternative to large-scale centralized networks. Its volume has approximated to the dimensions of the built space, promoting a new found condition of coexistence. A permeable and hydrophilic urbanization absorbs water as a valuable resource; new assemblies for urban biochemistry introduce an idea of sanitation closer to fertility than to disinfection; a breathable architecture that soaks and exudes freshness design the atmospheric conditions: these are the essential components of this new project. The city is understood as a synthesis of multi-scale hydraulic spaces that provides greater resilience against desertification and increases the visibility of water and the linkages between ecology and economy in the public scene. It is also an opportunity to review the disciplinary categories of architecture, the material consistencies, the environmental qualities and the relationship between body and space.

Metodología de análisis estadístico de roturas en redes de distribución de agua

La presente Tesis plantea una metodología de análisis estadístico de roturas de tubería en redes de distribución de agua, que analiza la relación entre las roturas y la presión de agua y que propone la implantación de una gestión de presiones que reduzca el número de roturas que se producen en dichas redes. Las redes de distribución de agua se deterioran y una de sus graves consecuencias es la aparición de roturas frecuentes en sus tuberías. Las roturas llevan asociados elevados costes sociales, económicos y medioambientales y es por ello por lo que las compañías gestoras del agua tratan de reducirlas en la medida de lo posible. Las redes de distribución de agua se pueden dividir en zonas o sectores que facilitan su control y que pueden ser independientes o aislarse mediante válvulas, como ocurre en las redes de países más desarrollados, o pueden estar intercomunicados hidráulicamente. La implantación de una gestión de presiones suele llevarse a cabo a través de las válvulas reductoras de presión (VPR), que se instalan en las cabeceras de estos sectores y que controlan la presión aguas abajo de la misma, aunque varíe su caudal de entrada. Los métodos más conocidos de la gestión de presiones son la reducción de presiones, que es el control más habitual, el mantenimiento de la presión, la prevención y/o alivio de los aumentos repentinos de presión y el establecimiento de un control por alturas. A partir del año 2005 se empezó a reconocer el efecto de la gestión de presiones sobre la disminución de las roturas. En esta Tesis, se sugiere una gestión de presiones que controle los rangos de los indicadores de la presión de cabecera que más influyan en la probabilidad de roturas de tubería. Así, la presión del agua se caracteriza a través de indicadores obtenidos de la presión registrada en la cabecera de los sectores, debido a que se asume que esta presión es representativa de la presión de operación de todas las tuberías porque las pérdidas de carga son relativamente bajas y las diferencias topográficas se tienen en cuenta en el diseño de los sectores. Y los indicadores de presión, que se pueden definir como el estadístico calculado a partir de las series de la presión de cabecera sobre una ventana de tiempo, pueden proveer la información necesaria para ayudar a la toma de decisiones a los gestores del agua con el fin de reducir las roturas de tubería en las redes de distribución de agua. La primera parte de la metodología que se propone en esta Tesis trata de encontrar los indicadores de presión que influyen más en la probabilidad de roturas de tuberías. Para conocer si un indicador es influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas se comparan las estimaciones de las funciones de distribución acumulada (FDAs) de los indicadores de presiones, considerando dos situaciones: cuando se condicionan a la ocurrencia de una rotura (suceso raro) y cuando se calculan en la situación normal de operación (normal operación). Por lo general, las compañías gestoras cuentan con registros de roturas de los años más recientes y al encontrarse las tuberías enterradas se complica el acceso a la información. Por ello, se propone el uso de funciones de probabilidad que permiten reducir la incertidumbre asociada a los datos registrados. De esta forma, se determinan las funciones de distribución acumuladas (FDAs) de los valores del indicador de la serie de presión (situación normal de operación) y las FDAs de los valores del indicador en el momento de ocurrencia de las roturas (condicionado a las roturas). Si las funciones de distribución provienen de la misma población, no se puede deducir que el indicador claramente influya en la probabilidad de roturas. Sin embargo, si se prueba estadísticamente que las funciones proceden de la misma población, se puede concluir que existe una relación entre el indicador analizado y la ocurrencia de las roturas. Debido a que el número de valores del indicador de la FDA condicionada a las roturas es mucho menor que el número de valores del indicador de la FDA incondicional a las roturas, se generan series aleatorias a partir de los valores de los indicadores con el mismo número de valores que roturas registradas hay. De esta forma, se comparan las FDAs de series aleatorias del indicador con la FDA condicionada a las roturas del mismo indicador y se deduce si el indicador es influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas. Los indicadores de presión pueden depender de unos parámetros. A través de un análisis de sensibilidad y aplicando un test estadístico robusto se determina la situación en la que estos parámetros dan lugar a que el indicador sea más influyente en la probabilidad de las roturas. Al mismo tiempo, los indicadores se pueden calcular en función de dos parámetros de cálculo que se denominan el tiempo de anticipación y el ancho de ventana. El tiempo de anticipación es el tiempo (en horas) entre el final del periodo de computación del indicador de presión y la rotura, y el ancho de ventana es el número de valores de presión que se requieren para calcular el indicador de presión y que es múltiplo de 24 horas debido al comportamiento cíclico diario de la presión. Un análisis de sensibilidad de los parámetros de cálculo explica cuándo los indicadores de presión influyen más en la probabilidad de roturas. En la segunda parte de la metodología se presenta un modelo de diagnóstico bayesiano. Este tipo de modelo forma parte de los modelos estadísticos de prevención de roturas, parten de los datos registrados para establecer patrones de fallo y utilizan el teorema de Bayes para determinar la probabilidad de fallo cuando se condiciona la red a unas determinadas características. Así, a través del teorema de Bayes se comparan la FDA genérica del indicador con la FDA condicionada a las roturas y se determina cuándo la probabilidad de roturas aumenta para ciertos rangos del indicador que se ha inferido como influyente en las roturas. Se determina un ratio de probabilidad (RP) que cuando es superior a la unidad permite distinguir cuándo la probabilidad de roturas incrementa para determinados intervalos del indicador. La primera parte de la metodología se aplica a la red de distribución de la Comunidad de Madrid (España) y a la red de distribución de Ciudad de Panamá (Panamá). Tras el filtrado de datos se deduce que se puede aplicar la metodología en 15 sectores en la Comunidad de Madrid y en dos sectores, llamados corregimientos, en Ciudad de Panamá. Los resultados demuestran que en las dos redes los indicadores más influyentes en la probabilidad de las roturas son el rango de la presión, que supone la diferencia entre la presión máxima y la presión mínima, y la variabilidad de la presión, que considera la propiedad estadística de la desviación típica. Se trata, por tanto, de indicadores que hacen referencia a la dispersión de los datos, a la persistencia de la variación de la presión y que se puede asimilar en resistencia de materiales a la fatiga. La segunda parte de la metodología se ha aplicado a los indicadores influyentes en la probabilidad de las roturas de la Comunidad de Madrid y se ha deducido que la probabilidad de roturas aumenta para valores extremos del indicador del rango de la presión y del indicador de la variabilidad de la presión. Finalmente, se recomienda una gestión de presiones que limite los intervalos de los indicadores influyentes en la probabilidad de roturas que incrementen dicha probabilidad. La metodología propuesta puede aplicarse a otras redes de distribución y puede ayudar a las compañías gestoras a reducir el número de fallos en el sistema a través de la gestión de presiones. This Thesis presents a methodology for the statistical analysis of pipe breaks in water distribution networks. The methodology studies the relationship between pipe breaks and water pressure, and proposes a pressure management procedure to reduce the number of breaks that occur in such networks. One of the manifestations of the deterioration of water supply systems is frequent pipe breaks. System failures are one of the major challenges faced by water utilities, due to their associated social, economic and environmental costs. For all these reasons, water utilities aim at reducing the problem of break occurrence to as great an extent as possible. Water distribution networks can be divided into areas or sectors, which facilitates the control of the network. These areas may be independent or isolated by valves, as it usually happens in developing countries. Alternatively, they can be hydraulically interconnected. The implementation of pressure management strategies is usually carried out through pressure-reducing valves (PRV). These valves are installed at the head of the sectors and, although the inflow may vary significantly, they control the downstream pressure. The most popular methods of pressure management consist of pressure reduction, which is the common form of control, pressure sustaining, prevention and/or alleviation of pressure surges or large variations in pressure, and level/altitude control. From 2005 onwards, the effects of pressure management on burst frequencies have become more widely recognized in the technical literature. This thesis suggests a pressure management that controls the pressure indicator ranges most influential on the probability of pipe breaks. Operating pressure in a sector is characterized by means of a pressure indicator at the head of the DMA, as head losses are relatively small and topographical differences were accounted for at the design stage. The pressure indicator, which may be defined as the calculated statistic from the time series of pressure head over a specific time window, may provide necessary information to help water utilities to make decisions to reduce pipe breaks in water distribution networks. The first part of the methodology presented in this Thesis provides the pressure indicators which have the greatest impact on the probability of pipe breaks to be determined. In order to know whether a pressure indicator influences the probability of pipe breaks, the proposed methodology compares estimates of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of a pressure indicator through consideration of two situations: when they are conditioned to the occurrence of a pipe break (a rare event), and when they are not (a normal operation). Water utilities usually have a history of failures limited to recent periods of time, and it is difficult to have access to precise information in an underground network. Therefore, the use of distribution functions to address such imprecision of recorded data is proposed. Cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) derived from the time series of pressure indicators (normal operation) and CDFs of indicator values at times coincident with a reported pipe break (conditioned to breaks) are compared. If all estimated CDFs are drawn from the same population, there is no reason to infer that the studied indicator clearly influences the probability of the rare event. However, when it is statistically proven that the estimated CDFs do not come from the same population, the analysed indicator may have an influence on the occurrence of pipe breaks. Due to the fact that the number of indicator values used to estimate the CDF conditioned to breaks is much lower in comparison with the number of indicator values to estimate the CDF of the unconditional pressure series, and that the obtained results depend on the size of the compared samples, CDFs from random sets of the same size sampled from the unconditional indicator values are estimated. Therefore, the comparison between the estimated CDFs of random sets of the indicator and the estimated CDF conditioned to breaks allows knowledge of if the indicator is influential on the probability of pipe breaks. Pressure indicators depend on various parameters. Sensitivity analysis and a robust statistical test allow determining the indicator for which these parameters result most influential on the probability of pipe breaks. At the same time, indicators can be calculated according to two model parameters, named as the anticipation time and the window width. The anticipation time refers to the time (hours) between the end of the period for the computation of the pressure indicator and the break. The window width is the number of instantaneous pressure values required to calculate the pressure indicator and is multiple of 24 hours, as water pressure has a cyclical behaviour which lasts one day. A sensitivity analysis of the model parameters explains when the pressure indicator is more influential on the probability of pipe breaks. The second part of the methodology presents a Bayesian diagnostic model. This kind of model belongs to the class of statistical predictive models, which are based on historical data, represent break behavior and patterns in water mains, and use the Bayes’ theorem to condition the probability of failure to specific system characteristics. The Bayes’ theorem allows comparing the break-conditioned FDA and the unconditional FDA of the indicators and determining when the probability of pipe breaks increases for certain pressure indicator ranges. A defined probability ratio provides a measure to establish whether the probability of breaks increases for certain ranges of the pressure indicator. The first part of the methodology is applied to the water distribution network of Madrid (Spain) and to the water distribution network of Panama City (Panama). The data filtering method suggests that the methodology can be applied to 15 sectors in Madrid and to two areas in Panama City. The results show that, in both systems, the most influential indicators on the probability of pipe breaks are the pressure range, which is the difference between the maximum pressure and the minimum pressure, and pressure variability, referred to the statistical property of the standard deviation. Therefore, they represent the dispersion of the data, the persistence of the variation in pressure and may be related to the fatigue in material resistance. The second part of the methodology has been applied to the influential indicators on the probability of pipe breaks in the water distribution network of Madrid. The main conclusion is that the probability of pipe breaks increases for the extreme values of the pressure range indicator and of the pressure variability indicator. Finally, a pressure management which limits the ranges of the pressure indicators influential on the probability of pipe breaks that increase such probability is recommended. The methodology presented here is general, may be applied to other water distribution networks, and could help water utilities reduce the number of system failures through pressure management.