Choosing between Cox proportional hazards and logistic models for interval-censored data via bootstrap

This work develops a new methodology in order to discriminate models for interval-censored data based on bootstrap residual simulation by observing the deviance difference from one model in relation to another, according to Hinde (1992). Generally, this sort of data can generate a large number of tied observations and, in this case, survival time can be regarded as discrete. Therefore, the Cox proportional hazards model for grouped data (Prentice & Gloeckler, 1978) and the logistic model (Lawless, 1982) can befitted by means of generalized linear models. Whitehead (1989) considered censoring to be an indicative variable with a binomial distribution and fitted the Cox proportional hazards model using complementary log-log as a link function. In addition, a logistic model can be fitted using logit as a link function. The proposed methodology arises as an alternative to the score tests developed by Colosimo et al. (2000), where such models can be obtained for discrete binary data as particular cases from the Aranda-Ordaz distribution asymmetric family. These tests are thus developed with a basis on link functions to generate such a fit. The example that motivates this study was the dataset from an experiment carried out on a flax cultivar planted on four substrata susceptible to the pathogen Fusarium oxysoprum. The response variable, which is the time until blighting, was observed in intervals during 52 days. The results were compared with the model fit and the AIC values.

Likelihood approximations and discrete models for tied survival data

Ties among event times are often recorded in survival studies. For example, in a two week laboratory study where event times are measured in days, ties are very likely to occur. The proportional hazards model might be used in this setting using an approximated partial likelihood function. This approximation works well when the number of ties is small. on the other hand, discrete regression models are suggested when the data are heavily tied. However, in many situations it is not clear which approach should be used in practice. In this work, empirical guidelines based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided. These recommendations are based on a measure of the amount of tied data present and the mean square error. An example illustrates the proposed criterion.

Bayesian longitudinal data analysis with mixed models and thick-tailed distributions using MCMC

Linear mixed effects models are frequently used to analyse longitudinal data, due to their flexibility in modelling the covariance structure between and within observations. Further, it is easy to deal with unbalanced data, either with respect to the number of observations per subject or per time period, and with varying time intervals between observations. In most applications of mixed models to biological sciences, a normal distribution is assumed both for the random effects and for the residuals. This, however, makes inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Here, linear mixed models employing thick-tailed distributions for robust inferences in longitudinal data analysis are described. Specific distributions discussed include the Student-t, the slash and the contaminated normal. A Bayesian framework is adopted, and the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are used to carry out the posterior analyses. An example with data on orthodontic distance growth in children is discussed to illustrate the methodology. Analyses based on either the Student-t distribution or on the usual Gaussian assumption are contrasted. The thick-tailed distributions provide an appealing robust alternative to the Gaussian process for modelling distributions of the random effects and of residuals in linear mixed models, and the MCMC implementation allows the computations to be performed in a flexible manner.

Genetic Parameters For the Somatic Cells Count In the Milk of Buffaloes Using Ordinary Test Day Models

The buffaloes dairy milk production (BDMP) has increased in the last 20 years, mainly for the manufacturing of mozzarella cheese, which is recognized by its high nutritional quality. However, this quality can be affected by several factors i. e. high somatic cells count (SCC) provokes changes in the milk's constituents. As in bovine dairy milk, the SCC is used as diagnostic tool for milk quality; because it enables the diagnosis of sub-clinic mastitis and also allows the selection of individuals genetically resistant to that disease. Based on it, we collected information about SCC and BDMP along the lactation in Murrah breed buffaloes, during the period between 1997 and 2005. Curves were designed to estimate genetic parameters. These parameters were estimated by ordinary test-day models. There were observed variations in the estimated heritability for both characteristics the lowest score for somatic cells count (SSCC) was seen at first month (0.01) and the highest at sixth months (0.29 the genetic correlation between these traits varied from -1 at the 1 and 9(th) months to 0.31 and 0.30 in the2 and 4(th) month of lactation. Phenotypic correlations were all negative (-0.07 in the second month and up to -0.35 in the eighth month of lactation). These results showed that environmental factors are more important than genetics in explain SCC, for this reason, selection for genetic resistance to mastitis in buffalos based in SCC should not be done. In the other hand, negative phenotypic correlations demonstrated that as the SCC increased, the milk production decreased.

Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Generating VRS data using atmospheric models: How far can we go?

Nowadays, with the expansion of the reference stations networks, several positioning techniques have been developed and/or improved. Among them, the VRS (Virtual Reference Station) concept has been very used. In this paper the goal is to generate VRS data in a modified technique. In the proposed methodology the DD (double difference) ambiguities are not computed. The network correction terms are obtained using only atmospheric (ionospheric and tropospheric) models. In order to carry out the experiments it was used data of five reference stations from the GPS Active Network of West of São Paulo State and an extra station. To evaluate the VRS data quality it was used three different strategies: PPP (Precise Point Positioning) and Relative Positioning in static and kinematic modes, and DGPS (Differential GPS). Furthermore, the VRS data were generated in the position of a real reference station. The results provided by the VRS data agree quite well with those of the real file data.

Anti-inflammatory mechanisms of the annexin A1 protein and its mimetic peptide Ac2-26 in models of ocular inflammation in vivo and in vitro

Annexin A1 (AnxA1) is a protein that displays potent anti-inflammatory properties, but its expression in eye tissue and its role in ocular inflammatory diseases have not been well studied. We investigated the mechanism of action and potential uses of AnxA1 and its mimetic peptide (Ac2-26) in the endotoxin-induced uveitis (EIU) rodent model and in human ARPE-19 cells activated by LPS. In rats, analysis of untreated EIU after 24 and 48 h or EIU treated with topical applications or with a single s.c. injection of Ac2-26 revealed the anti-inflammatory actions of Ac2-26 on leukocyte infiltration and on the release of inflammatory mediators; the systemic administration of Boc2, a formylated peptide receptor (fpr) antagonist, abrogated the peptide's protective effects. Moreover, AnxA1-/- mice exhibited exacerbated EIU compared with wild-type animals. Immunohistochemical studies of ocular tissue showed a specific AnxA1 posttranslational modification in EIU and indicated that the fpr2 receptor mediated the anti-inflammatory actions of AnxA1. In vitro studies confirmed the roles of AnxA1 and fpr2 and the protective effects of Ac2-26 on the release of chemical mediators in ARPE-19 cells. Molecular analysis of NF-κB translocation and IL-6, IL-8, and cyclooxygenase-2 gene expression indicated that the protective effects of AnxA1 occur independently of the NF-κB signaling pathway and possibly in a posttranscriptional manner. Together, our data highlight the role of AnxA1 in ocular inflammation, especially uveitis, and suggest the use of AnxA1 or its mimetic peptide Ac2-26 as a therapeutic approach. Copyright © 2013 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

Are fertility estimates from retrospective data biased by maternal mortality?: an assessment based on parametric models of family size distribution

Includes bibliography

Predicting biological parameters of estuarine benthic communities using models based on environmental data

Este trabalho objetivou predizer parâmetros da estrutura de associações macrobentônicas (composição específica, abundância, riqueza, diversidade e equitatividade) em estuários do Sul do Brasil, utilizando modelos baseados em dados ambientais (características dos sedimentos, salinidade, temperaturas do ar e da água, e profundidade). As amostragens foram realizadas sazonalmente em cinco estuários entre o inverno de 1996 e o verão de 1998. Em cada estuário as amostras foram coletadas em áreas não poluídas, com características semelhantes quanto a presença ou ausência de vegetação, profundidade e distância da desenbocadura. Para a obtenção dos modelos de predição, foram utilizados dois métodos: o primeiro baseado em Análise Discriminante Múltipla (ADM) e o segundo em Regressão Linear Múltipla (RLM). Os modelos baseados em ADM apresentaram resultados melhores do que os baseados em regressão linear. Os melhores resultados usando RLM foram obtidos para diversidade e riqueza. É possível então, concluir que modelos como aqui derivados podem representar ferramentas muito úteis em estudos de monitoramento ambiental em estuários.

Polymorphonuclear leukocytes CH138+apoptosis evaluation in milk with high and low somatic cell count - preliminary data

Polymorphonuclear leukocyte (PMNL) apoptosis is central to the successful resolution of inflammation. Since Somatic Cell Count (SCC) is an indicator of the mammary gland's immune status, this study sought to clarify the influence that these factors have on each other and on the evolution of the inflammatory process. Milk samples were stained with annexin-V, propidium iodide (PI), primary antibody anti-CH138A. Negative correlation between SCC and PMNL apoptosis was found, and a statistical difference between high SCC group and low SCC group was observed concerning the rate of viable PMNL, apoptotic PMNL, necrotic PMNL and necrotic and/or apoptotic PMNL. Overall, the high cellularity group presented lower proportions of CH138+ cells undergoing apoptosis and higher proportions of viable and necrotic CH138+ cells. Thus, it can be concluded that PMNL apoptosis and SCC are related factors, and that in high SCC, milk apoptosis is delayed. Although there is a greater amount of active phagocytes in this situation, apoptosis' anti-inflammatory effects are decreased, while necrosis' pro-inflammatory effects are increased, which can contribute to chronic inflammation.

Influence diagnostics in heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data

In this paper, we propose nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data with heteroscedastic and/or autoregressive structures. Our aim is to extend the models proposed by Russo et al. [22] by considering a more sophisticated scale structure to deal with variations in data dispersion and/or a possible autocorrelation among measurements taken throughout the same experimental unit. Moreover, to avoid the possible influence of outlying observations or to take into account the non-normal symmetric tails of the data, we assume elliptical contours for the joint distribution of random effects and errors, which allows us to attribute different weights to the observations. We propose an iterative algorithm to obtain the maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters and derive the local influence curvatures for some specific perturbation schemes. The motivation for this work comes from a pharmacokinetic indomethacin data set, which was analysed previously by Bocheng and Xuping [1] under normality.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.