Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

HERMES: A user-friendly connectivity analysis software

The analysis of the interdependence between time series has become an important field of research, mainly as a result of advances in the characterization of dynamical systems from the signals they produce, and the introduction of concepts such as Generalized (GS) and Phase synchronization (PS). This increase in the number of approaches to tackle the existence of the so-called functional (FC) and effective connectivity (EC) (Friston 1994) between two, (or among many) neural networks, along with their mathematical complexity, makes it desirable to arrange them into a unified toolbox, thereby allowing neuroscientists, neurophysiologists and researchers from related fields to easily access and make use of them.

A computer formulation for the analysis on continuous non prismatic folded plate structures of arbitrary cross-section

A computer solution to analyze nonprismatic folded plate structures is shown. Arbitrary cross-sections (simple and multiple), continuity over intermediate supports and general loading and longitudinal boundary conditions are dealt with. The folded plates are assumed to be straight and long (beam like structures) and some simplifications are introduced in order to reduce the computational effort. The formulation here presented may be very suitable to be used in the bridge deck analysis.

Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain

Tolls have increasingly become a common mechanism to fund road projects in recent decades. Therefore, improving knowledge of demand behavior constitutes a key aspect for stakeholders dealing with the management of toll roads. However, the literature concerning demand elasticity estimates for interurban toll roads is still limited due to their relatively scarce number in the international context. Furthermore, existing research has left some aspects to be investigated, among others, the choice of GDP as the most common socioeconomic variable to explain traffic growth over time. This paper intends to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of light vehicle demand in toll roads throughout the years. To that end, we establish a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables explaining changes in light vehicle demand over time. The results show that, despite some usefulness, GDP does not constitute the most appropriate explanatory variable, while other parameters such as employment or GDP per capita lead to more stable and consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990?2011 period, which constitutes a very interesting case on variations in toll road use, as road demand has experienced a significant decrease since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.

POSDATA: Personal and Social Data Analysis

Contents: - Center for Open Middleware - POSDATA project - User modeling - Some early results - @posdata service

A study of data analysis techniques. Application to personal data analysis in the context of social networks

En los últimos años la sociedad está experimentando una serie de cambios. Uno de estos cambios es la datificación (“datafication” en inglés). Este término puede ser definido como la transformación sistemática de aspectos de la vida cotidiana de las personas en datos procesados por ordenadores. Cada día, a cada minuto y a cada segundo, cada vez que alguien emplea un dispositivo digital,hay datos siendo guardados en algún lugar. Se puede tratar del contenido de un correo electrónico pero también puede ser el número de pasos que esa persona ha caminado o su historial médico. El simple almacenamiento de datos no proporciona un valor añadido por si solo. Para extraer conocimiento de los datos, y por tanto darles un valor, se requiere del análisis de datos. La ciencia de los datos junto con el análisis de datos se está volviendo cada vez más popular. Hoy en día, se pueden encontrar millones de web APIs estadísticas; estas APIs ofrecen la posibilidad de analizar tendencias o sentimientos presentes en las redes sociales o en internet en general. Una de las redes sociales más populares, Twitter, es pública. Cada mensaje, o tweet, publicado puede ser visto por cualquier persona en el mundo, siempre y cuando posea una conexión a internet. Esto hace de Twitter un medio interesante a la hora de analizar hábitos sociales o perfiles de consumo. Es en este contexto en que se engloba este proyecto. Este trabajo, combinando el análisis estadístico de datos y el análisis de contenido, trata de extraer conocimiento de tweets públicos de Twitter. En particular tratará de establecer si el género es un factor influyente en las relaciones entre usuarios de Twitter. Para ello, se analizará una base de datos que contiene casi 2.000 tweets. En primer lugar se determinará el género de los usuarios mediante web APIs. En segundo lugar se empleará el contraste de hipótesis para saber si el género influye en los usuarios a la hora de relacionarse con otros usuarios. Finalmente se construirá un modelo estadístico para predecir el comportamiento de los usuarios de Twitter en relación a su género.

Automated data analysis to rapidly derive and communicate ecological insights from satellite-tag data : A case study of reintroduced red kites

Acknowledgements We thank Andrew Spink (Noldus Information Technology) and the Blogging Birds team members Peter Kindness and Abdul Adeniyi for their valuable contributions to this paper. John Fryxell, Chris Thaxter and Arjun Amar provided valuable comments on an earlier version. The study was part of the Digital Conservation project of dot.rural, the University of Aberdeen’s Digital Economy Research Hub, funded by RCUK (grant reference EP/G066051/1).

Response of Catch-Per-Unit-Effort to Spatial and Environmental Factors: an Exploratory Data Analysis Using Generalized Additive Models

Understanding spatial distributions and how environmental conditions influence catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) is important for increased fishing efficiency and sustainable fisheries management. This study investigated the relationship between CPUE, spatial factors, temperature, and depth using generalized additive models. Combinations of factors, and not one single factor, were frequently included in the best model. Parameters which best described CPUE varied by geographic region. The amount of variance, or deviance, explained by the best models ranged from a low of 29% (halibut, Charlotte region) to a high of 94% (sablefish, Charlotte region). Depth, latitude, and longitude influenced most species in several regions. On the broad geographic scale, depth was associated with CPUE for every species, except dogfish. Latitude and longitude influenced most species, except halibut (Areas 4 A/D), sablefish, and cod. Temperature was important for describing distributions of halibut in Alaska, arrowtooth flounder in British Columbia, dogfish, Alaska skate, and Aleutian skate. The species-habitat relationships revealed in this study can be used to create improved fishing and management strategies.

Participation and performance trends in 6-hour ultra-marathoners – a retrospective data analysis of worldwide participation from 1991-2010

Participation trends in 6-hour ultra-marathons held word-wide were investigated to gain basic demographic data on 6-hour ultra-marathoners and where these races took place. Participation trends and the association between nationality and race performance were investigated in all 6-hour races held worldwide between 1991 and 2010. Participation increased linearly in both women and men across years. The annual number of finishes was significantly higher in men than in women (P=0.013). The male-to-female ratio remained stable at ~4 since 1991. Runners in age group 45-49 years showed the largest increase in participation for both men (800 participants in 18 years) and women (208 participants in 16 years). Europe attracted most of the runners from other continents (166 runners), more than all other continents combined (55 runners). European runners also showed the best top ten performances (73±3 km for women and 77±11 km for men), while African (with 65±9 km for men) and South American (54±4 km for women and 65±2 km for men) runners showed the weakest. To summarize, participation in 6-hour ultra-marathons increased across years. Most of the development took place in Europe and in athletes in the age group 45-49 years. Europe also attracted the most diverse field of athletes with runners from all other continents. European runners accounted for the most runners and achieved the best top ten performances.

Data analysis using circular causality in networks

Complex systems in causal relationships are known to be circular rather than linear; this means that a particular result is not produced by a single cause, but rather that both positive and negative feedback processes are involved. However, although interpreting systemic interrelationships requires a language formed by circles, this has only been developed at the diagram level, and not from an axiomatic point of view. The first difficulty encountered when analysing any complex system is that usually the only data available relate to the various variables, so the first objective was to transform these data into cause-and-effect relationships. Once this initial step was taken, our discrete chaos theory could be applied by finding the causal circles that will form part of the system attractor and allow their behavior to be interpreted. As an application of the technique presented, we analyzed the system associated with the transcription factors of inflammatory diseases.

A Sociocybernetics Data Analysis Using Causality in Tourism Networks

The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Does the Common Agricultural Policy Reduce Farm Labour Migration? Panel data analysis across EU regions. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 28, July 2012

This paper deals with the determinants of labour out-migration from agriculture across 149 EU regions over the 1990–2008 period. The central aim is to shed light on the role played by payments from the common agricultural policy (CAP) on this important adjustment process. Using static and dynamic panel data estimators, we show that standard neoclassical drivers, like relative income and the relative labour share, represent significant determinants of the intersectoral migration of agricultural labour. Overall, CAP payments contributed significantly to job creation in agriculture, although the magnitude of the economic effect was rather moderate. We also find that pillar I subsidies exerted an effect approximately two times greater than that of pillar II payments.

Why Do Some Water Utilities Recycle More than Others? A Qualitative Comparative Analysis in New South Wales, Australia

Although the recycling of municipal wastewater can play an important role in water supply security and ecosystem protection, the percentage of wastewater recycled is generally low and strikingly variable. Previous research has employed detailed case studies to examine the factors that contribute to recycling success but usually lacks a comparative perspective across cases. In this study, 25 water utilities in New South Wales, Australia, were compared using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). This research method applies binary logic and set theory to identify the minimal combinations of conditions that are necessary and/or sufficient for an outcome to occur within the set of cases analyzed. The influence of six factors (rainfall, population density, coastal or inland location, proximity to users; cost recovery and revenue for water supply services) was examined for two outcomes, agricultural use and "heavy" (i.e., commercial/municipal/industrial) use. Each outcome was explained by two different pathways, illustrating that different combinations of conditions are associated with the same outcome. Generally, while economic factors are crucial for heavy use, factors relating to water stress and geographical proximity matter most for agricultural reuse. These results suggest that policies to promote wastewater reuse may be most effective if they target uses that are most feasible for utilities and correspond to the local context. This work also makes a methodological contribution through illustrating the potential utility of fsQCA for understanding the complex drivers of performance in water recycling.

The computer aided system for planning efficient routes. Final report.

Indiana Department of Transportation, Indianapolis

National Center for Statistics and Analysis collected technical studies. Volume I: accident data analysis of vehicle crashworthiness - ten papers.

Mode of access: Internet.