Probabilistic approach to cloud and snow detection on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) imagery

Derivation of probability estimates complementary to geophysical data sets has gained special attention over the last years. Information about a confidence level of provided physical quantities is required to construct an error budget of higher-level products and to correctly interpret final results of a particular analysis. Regarding the generation of products based on satellite data a common input consists of a cloud mask which allows discrimination between surface and cloud signals. Further the surface information is divided between snow and snow-free components. At any step of this discrimination process a misclassification in a cloud/snow mask propagates to higher-level products and may alter their usability. Within this scope a novel probabilistic cloud mask (PCM) algorithm suited for the 1 km × 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data is proposed which provides three types of probability estimates between: cloudy/clear-sky, cloudy/snow and clear-sky/snow conditions. As opposed to the majority of available techniques which are usually based on the decision-tree approach in the PCM algorithm all spectral, angular and ancillary information is used in a single step to retrieve probability estimates from the precomputed look-up tables (LUTs). Moreover, the issue of derivation of a single threshold value for a spectral test was overcome by the concept of multidimensional information space which is divided into small bins by an extensive set of intervals. The discrimination between snow and ice clouds and detection of broken, thin clouds was enhanced by means of the invariant coordinate system (ICS) transformation. The study area covers a wide range of environmental conditions spanning from Iceland through central Europe to northern parts of Africa which exhibit diverse difficulties for cloud/snow masking algorithms. The retrieved PCM cloud classification was compared to the Polar Platform System (PPS) version 2012 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 cloud masks, SYNOP (surface synoptic observations) weather reports, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) vertical feature mask version 3 and to MODIS collection 5 snow mask. The outcomes of conducted analyses proved fine detection skills of the PCM method with results comparable to or better than the reference PPS algorithm.

Forest dynamics during the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød at Gerzensee—a simulation study

The aim of this study was to explore potential causes and mechanisms for the sequence and temporal pattern of tree taxa, specifically for the shift from shrub-tundra to birch–juniper woodland during and after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød in the region surrounding the lake Gerzensee in southern Central Europe. We tested the influence of climate, forest dynamics, community dynamics compared to other causes for delays. For this aim temperature reconstructed from a δ18O-record was used as input driving the multi-species forest-landscape model TreeMig. In a stepwise scenario analysis, population dynamics along with pollen production and transport were simulated and compared with pollen-influx data, according to scenarios of different δ18O/temperature sensitivities, different precipitation levels, with/without inter-specific competition, and with/without prescribed arrival of species. In the best-fitting scenarios, the effects on competitive relationships, pollen production, spatial forest structure, albedo, and surface roughness were examined in more detail. The appearance of most taxa in the data could only be explained by the coldest temperature scenario with a sensitivity of 0.3‰/°C, corresponding to an anomaly of − 15 °C. Once the taxa were present, their temporal pattern was shaped by competition. The later arrival of Pinus could not be explained even by the coldest temperatures, and its timing had to be prescribed by first observations in the pollen record. After the arrival into the simulation area, the expansion of Pinus was further influenced by competitors and minor climate oscillations. The rapid change in the simulated species composition went along with a drastic change in forest structure, leaf area, albedo, and surface roughness. Pollen increased only shortly after biomass. Based on our simulations, two alternative potential scenarios for the pollen pattern can be given: either very cold climate suppressed most species in the Oldest Dryas, or they were delayed by soil formation or migration. One taxon, Pinus, was delayed by migration and then additionally hindered by competition. Community dynamics affected the pattern in two ways: potentially by facilitation, i.e. by nitrogen-fixing pioneer species at the onset, whereas the later pattern was clearly shaped by competition. The simulated structural changes illustrate how vegetation on a larger scale could feed back to the climate system. For a better understanding, a more integrated simulation approach covering also the immigration from refugia would be necessary, for this combines climate-driven population dynamics, migration, individual pollen production and transport, soil dynamics, and physiology of individual pollen production.

Increasing Silicon Concentrations in Bohemian Forest Lakes

Long-term trends of dissolved silicon (Si) concentrations in five glacial lakes in the Bohemian Forest, Czech Republic, recovering from acidification show higher mobility of Si from the soil to surface waters despite lower atmospheric deposition of acids. Si increased by 0.95 to 1.95 mu mol yr(-1) (36 to 51%) from 1986-2004 and with increasing pH. A change in soil solution conditions because of a sharp decrease in acidic deposition has led to marked decline in Al mobility and to considerable decreases in dissolved Al, especially Al3+. The increase in Si may be related to: (1) unblocking of the inhibitory effect of dissolved Al on weathering of alummosilicates, (2) biogenic opal (phytoliths) dissolving faster, and/or (3) lower Si precipitation as secondary alummosilicates in soil. The change in Al speciation on the dissolution rate of biogenic silica is critical. A lack of change in Si at sites outside central Europe may be explained by small or no decline in mobility of dissolved Al. The effect of a long-term increase in temperature was probably minor.

Impacts of drought stress on water relations and carbon assimilation in grassland species at different altitudes

Grassland is an important ecosystem type which is not only used agriculturally, but also covers sites which cannot be used for other purposes, e.g. in very steep locations or above timberlines. Prolonged summer droughts in the mid-term future, as are predicted for Central Europe, are expected to have a major impact on such ecosystems. To address this topic, rainfall exclusion via shelters was performed on three grassland sites at different altitudes (393, 982 and 1978 m above sea level) in Switzerland. Diurnal drought treatment effects were studied at each study site on a completely sunny day towards the end of an 8–10 week shelter period. Ecophysiological parameters including gas exchange (An, gs and intrinsic WUE) and chlorophyll a fluorescence (Fv/Fm, ΦPSII and NPQ) were considered for several species. The lowland and the Alpine field site were more strongly affected by soil drought than the pre-Alpine site. At all sites, grasses showed different patterns of reductions in stomatal conductance under soil drought compared to legumes and forbs. In addition, grasses were significantly more affected by reductions in assimilation rates at all sites. Time courses of reductions in assimilation rates relative to controls differed between species at the Alpine site, as some species showed reduced assimilation rates at this site in the early morning. Thus, similar rainfall exclusion treatments can trigger different reactions in various species at different sites, which might not become obvious during mere midday measurements. Overall, results suggest strong impacts of prolonged summer drought on grassland net photosynthesis especially at the Alpine site and, within sites, for grasses

Comparative assessment of ELISAs using recombinant saposin-like protein 2 and recombinant cathepsin L-1 from Fasciola hepatica for the serodiagnosis of human Fasciolosis.

Two recombinant Fasciola hepatica antigens, saposin-like protein-2 (recSAP2) and cathepsin L-1 (recCL1), were assessed individually and in combination in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) for the specific serodiagnosis of human fasciolosis in areas of low endemicity as encountered in Central Europe. Antibody detection was conducted using ProteinA/ProteinG (PAG) conjugated to alkaline phosphatase. Test characteristics as well as agreement with results from an ELISA using excretory-secretory products (FhES) from adult stage liver flukes was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis, specificity, sensitivity, Youdens J and overall accuracy. Cross-reactivity was assessed using three different groups of serum samples from healthy individuals (n=20), patients with other parasitic infections (n=87) and patients with malignancies (n=121). The best combined diagnostic results for recombinant antigens were obtained using the recSAP2-ELISA (87% sensitivity, 99% specificity and 97% overall accuracy) employing the threshold (cut-off) to discriminate between positive and negative reactions that maximized Youdens J. The findings showed that recSAP2-ELISA can be used for the routine serodiagnosis of chronic fasciolosis in clinical laboratories; the use of the PAG-conjugate offers the opportunity to employ, for example, rabbit hyperimmune serum for the standardization of positive controls.

No shift to a deeper water uptake depth in response to summer drought of two lowland and sub-alpine C3-grasslands in Switzerland

Temperate C3-grasslands are of high agricultural and ecological importance in Central Europe. Plant growth and consequently grassland yields depend strongly on water supply during the growing season, which is projected to change in the future. We therefore investigated the effect of summer drought on the water uptake of an intensively managed lowland and an extensively managed sub-alpine grassland in Switzerland. Summer drought was simulated by using transparent shelters. Standing above- and belowground biomass was sampled during three growing seasons. Soil and plant xylem waters were analyzed for oxygen (and hydrogen) stable isotope ratios, and the depths of plant water uptake were estimated by two different approaches: (1) linear interpolation method and (2) Bayesian calibrated mixing model. Relative to the control, aboveground biomass was reduced under drought conditions. In contrast to our expectations, lowland grassland plants subjected to summer drought were more likely (43–68 %) to rely on water in the topsoil (0–10 cm), whereas control plants relied less on the topsoil (4–37 %) and shifted to deeper soil layers (20–35 cm) during the drought period (29–48 %). Sub-alpine grassland plants did not differ significantly in uptake depth between drought and control plots during the drought period. Both approaches yielded similar results and showed that the drought treatment in the two grasslands did not induce a shift to deeper uptake depths, but rather continued or shifted water uptake to even more shallower soil depths. These findings illustrate the importance of shallow soil depths for plant performance under drought conditions.

Social networks, mobility, and exchange systems during the Neolithic and Bronze Age of the Swiss Plateau

Excavations of Neolithic (4000 – 3500 BC) and Late Bronze Age (1200 – 800 BC) wetland sites on the northern Alpine periphery have produced astonishing and detailed information about the life and human environment of prehistoric societies. It is even possible to reconstruct settlement histories and settlement dynamics, which suggest a high degree of mobility during the Neolithic. Archaeological finds—such as pottery—show local typological developments in addition to foreign influences. Furthermore, exogenous lithic forms indicate far reaching interaction. Many hundreds of bronze artefacts are recorded from the Late Bronze Age settlements, demonstrating that some wetland sites were centres of bronzework production. Exogenous forms of bronzework are relatively rare in the wetland settlements during the Late Bronze Age. However, the products produced in the lake-settlements can be found widely across central Europe, indicating their continued involvement in interregional exchange partnerships. Potential motivations and dynamics of the relationships between sites and other regions of Europe will be detailed using case studies focussing on the settlements Seedorf Lobsigensee (BE), Concise (VD), and Sutz-Lattrigen Hauptstation innen (BE), and an initial assessment of intra-site connectivity through Network Analysis of sites within the region of Lake Neuchâtel, Lake Biel, and Lake Murten.

An underestimated record breaking event – why summer 1540 was likely warmer than 2003

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring–summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 °C to 6.8 °C being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Contemporary ecotypic divergence during a recent range expansion was facilitated by adaptive introgression

Although rapid phenotypic evolution during range expansion associated with colonization of contrasting habitats has been documented in several taxa, the evolutionary mechanisms that underlie such phenotypic divergence have less often been investigated. A strong candidate for rapid ecotype formation within an invaded range is the three-spine stickleback in the Lake Geneva region of central Europe. Since its introduction only about 140 years ago, it has undergone a significant expansion of its range and its niche, now forming phenotypically differentiated parapatric ecotypes that occupy either the pelagic zone of the large lake or small inlet streams, respectively. By comparing museum collections from different times with contemporary population samples, we here reconstruct the evolution of parapatric phenotypic divergence through time. Using genetic data from modern samples, we infer the underlying invasion history. We find that parapatric habitat-dependent phenotypic divergence between the lake and stream was already present in the first half of the twentieth century, but the magnitude of differentiation increased through time, particularly in antipredator defence traits. This suggests that divergent selection between the habitats occurred and was stable through much of the time since colonization. Recently, increased phenotypic differentiation in antipredator defence traits likely results from habitat-dependent selection on alleles that arrived through introgression from a distantly related lineage from outside the Lake Geneva region. This illustrates how hybridization can quickly promote phenotypic divergence in a system where adaptation from standing genetic variation was constrained.

Exploring Growth Variability and Crown Vitality of Sessile Oak (Quercus Petraea) in the Czech Republic

Unraveling climatic effects on growth of oak - Europe’s most ecologically and economically important forest species - has been the subject of many recent studies; however, more insight based on field data is necessary to better understand the relationship between climate and tree growth and to adapt forest management strategies to future climate change. In this report, we explore the influence of temperature, precipitation and drought variability on the productivity and vitality of oak stands in the Czech Highlands. We collected 180 cores from mature oaks (Quercus petraea) at four forest stands in the Czech Drahany Highlands. Standard dendromethods were used for sample preparation, ring width measurements, cross-dating, chronology development, and the assessment of growth-climate response patterns. Crown vitality was also evaluated, using the modified ICP Forests methodology. Late spring precipitation totals between May and June as well as the mean July temperature for the year of ring formation were found to be the most important factors for oak growth, whereas crown condition was significantly affected by spring and summer drought. This study is rep-resentative for similar bio-ecological habitats across Central Europe and can serve as a dendroclima-tological blueprint for earlier periods for which detailed meteorological information is missing .

Diet and mobility of an Iron Age population in Switzerland; Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of the human remains from Münsingen

The 220 abundantly equipped burials from the Late Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen (420 – 240 BC) marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The evident horizontal spread throughout the time of occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today the skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved. The aim was to obtain information about nutrition, social stratification and migration of the individuals from Münsingen. Stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were analysed. The results of 63 individuals show that all consumed C3 plants as staple food with significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. The results indicate a gender restriction in access to animal protein. Stable isotope values of one male buried with weapons and meat as grave goods suggest a diet with more animal proteins than the other individuals. It is possible that he was privileged due to high status. Furthermore, the δ34S values indicate minor mobility. Assuming that the subadults represent the local signal of δ34S it is very likely that adults with enriched δ34S could have migrated to Münsingen at some point during their lives. This study presents stable isotope values of one of the most important Late Iron Age burial sites in Central Europe. The presented data provide new insight into diet, migration and social stratification of the population from Münsingen.

Fire ecology north and south of the Alps since the last ice age

Wildfires are very rare in central Europe, which is probably why fire effects on vegetation have been neglected by most central European ecologists and palaeoecologists. Presently, reconstructions of fire history and fire ecology are almost absent. We analysed sediment cores from lakes on the Swiss Plateau (Lobsigensee and Soppensee) for pollen and charcoal to investigate the relationship between vegetation and fire. Microscopic charcoal evidence suggests increasing regional fire frequencies during the Neolithic (7350-4150 cal. BP, 5400-2200 BC) and the subsequent prehistoric epochs at Lobsigensee, whereas at Soppensee burnings remained rather rare until modern times. Neolithic peaks of charcoal at 6200 and 5500 cal. BP (4250 and 3550 BC) coincided with declines of pollen of fire-sensitive taxa at both sites (e.g., Ulmus, Tilia, Hedera, Fagus), suggesting synchronous vegetational responses to fire at regional scales. However, correlation analysis between charcoal and pollen for the period 6600-4400 cal. BP (4650-2650 BC) revealed no significant link between fire and vegetation at Soppensee, whereas at Lobsigensee increases of Corylus and decreases of Fagus were related to fire events. Fire impact on vegetation increased during the subsequent epochs at both sites. Correlation analyses of charcoal and pollen data for the period 4250-1150 cal. BP (2300 BC -AD 800) suggest that fires were intentionally set to disrupt forests and to provide open areas for arable and pastoral farming (e.g., significant positive correlations between charcoal and Cerealia, Plantago lanceolata, Asteroideae). These results are compared with southern European records (Lago di Origlio, Lago di Muzzano), which are situated in particularly fire-prone environments. After the Mesolithic period (I1 200-7350 cal. BP, 9250-5400 BC), charcoal influx was higher by an order of magnitude in the south, suggesting more frequent fires. Neolithic fires caused similar though more pronounced responses of vegetation in the south (e.g., expansions of Corylus). Post-Neolithic land-use practices involving (controlled) burning culminated in both regions at about 2550 cal. BP (c. 600 BC). However, fire-caused disappearances of entire forest communities were confined to the southern sites. Such differences in fire effects among the sites are explained by the dissimilar importance of fire as a result of different climatic conditions and cultural activities. Our results imply that the remaining (fire-sensitive) fragments of central European vegetation north of the Alps are especially endangered by increasing fire frequencies resulting from predicted climatic change.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.