The Causal Links between FDI and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Republic of Rwanda

The study examines the short-run and long-run causality running from real economic growth to real foreign direct investment inflows (RFDI). Other variables such as education (involving combination of primary, secondary and tertiary enrolment as a proxy to education), real development finance, unskilled labour, to real RFDI inflows are included in the study. The time series data covering the period of 1983 -2013 are examined. First, I applied Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) technique to test for unit root in variables. Findings shows all variables integrated of order one [I(1)]. Thereafter, Johansen Co-integration Test (JCT) was conducted to establish the relationship among variables. Both trace and maximum Eigen value at 5% level of significance indicate 3 co-integrated equations. Vector error correction method (VECM) was applied to capture short and long-run causality running from education, economic growth, real development finance, and unskilled labour to real foreign direct investment inflows in the Republic of Rwanda. Findings shows no short-run causality running from education, real development finance, real GDP and unskilled labour to real FDI inflows, however there were existence of long-run causality. This can be interpreted that, in the short-run; education, development finance, finance and economic growth does not influence inflows of foreign direct investment in Rwanda; but it does in long-run. From the policy perspective, the Republic of Rwanda should focus more on long term goal of investing in education to improve human capital, undertake policy reforms that promotes economic growth, in addition to promoting good governance to attract development finance – especially from Nordics countries (particularly Norway and Denmark).

Reconceptualising International Intervention: Statebuilding, ‘Organic Processes’ and the Limits of Causal Knowledge

This article examines the transformation in the conceptual understanding of international intervention over the last two decades. It suggests that this conceptual shift can be usefully interrogated through its imbrication within broader epistemological shifts highlighting the limits of causal knowledge claims: heuristically framed in this article in terms of the shift from policy interventions within the problematic of causation to those concerned with the management of effects. In this shift, the means and mechanisms of international intervention have been transformed, no longer focused on the universal application of Western causal knowledge through policy interventions but rather on the effects of specific and unique local and organic processes at work in societies themselves. The focus on effects takes the conceptualisation of intervention out of the traditional terminological lexicon of International Relations theory and instead recasts problems in increasingly organicised ways, suggesting that artificial or hubristic attempts at socio-political intervention should be excluded or minimised.

Automated Equation Formulation for Causal Loop Diagrams

The annotation of Business Dynamics models with parameters and equations, to simulate the system under study and further evaluate its simulation output, typically involves a lot of manual work. In this paper we present an approach for automated equation formulation of a given Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and a set of associated time series with the help of neural network evolution (NEvo). NEvo enables the automated retrieval of surrogate equations for each quantity in the given CLD, hence it produces a fully annotated CLD that can be used for later simulations to predict future KPI development. In the end of the paper, we provide a detailed evaluation of NEvo on a business use-case to demonstrate its single step prediction capabilities.

Finite Population Inference for Causal Parameters

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

Caracterización del agente causal de la producción radicular del aguacate y Trichoderma sp., como potencial agente de control biológico en Nicaragua.

En el cultivo de aguacate (Persea americana Mill.) se presentan problemas fitosanitarios importantes dentro de los cuales sobresalen por su relevancia las enfermedades de la raíz. Un fitopatógeno limitante de este cultivo es el oomicete Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands, que puede causar pérdidas hasta del 90%. Por tal razón el principal objetivo del estudio fue generar información acerca de la etiología del agente causal de la pudrición radicular del aguacate utilizando marcadores morfológicos y moleculares, además de proponer alternativas de manejo de carácter biológico que estén enmarcadas dentro de un programa de manejo integrado de la enfermedad. Se realizaron colectas de muestras de suelo en cuatro localidades del departamento de Masaya. La identificación morfológica del patógeno se realizó mediante claves taxonómicas y se confirmó a través de la técnica PCR-RFLP. Se identificó a P. cinnamomi como el principal agente causal de la pudrición radicular del aguacate. Los aislados de P. cinnamomi fueron enfrentados con Trichoderma sp por el método de cultivo dual en cajas Petri con medio PDA. Se determinó el porcentaje de inhibición de crecimiento radial (PICR) a las 72 horas, así como el grado de antagonismo de cada una de las cepas de Trichoderma sp utilizadas en el estudio. Las cepas de Trichoderma al enfrentarlas a aislados del patógeno P. cinnamomi se ubicaron en las Clases 1 y 2 de la escala de evaluación, por lo tanto se consideraron altamente antagonistas. Existe la posibilidad de manejo biológico de las poblaciones de P. cinnamomi con microorganismos antagonistas del género Trichoderma no solamente en agroecosistemas de aguacate, sino también en otros sistemas agrícolas y forestales donde el patógeno esté presente.

Causal structure of the entanglement renormalization ansatz

We show that the multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz (MERA) can be reformulated in terms of a causality constraint on discrete quantum dynamics. This causal structure is that of de Sitter space with a flat space-like boundary, where the volume of a spacetime region corresponds to the number of variational parameters it contains. This result clarifies the nature of the ansatz, and suggests a generalization to quantum field theory. It also constitutes an independent justification of the connection between MERA and hyperbolic geometry which was proposed as a concrete implementation of the AdS-CFT correspondence.

Using Causal Models for the Calculation of Direct and Indirect Effects: An Example From Occupational Health

International audience

Causal factors of anxiety symptoms in children

Aim: The present work aimed to investigate the impact of the child’s cognitions associated with ambiguous stimuli that refer to anxiety, both parents’ fears and anxiety, and parents’ attributions to the child’s interpretations of ambiguous stimuli on child anxiety. The influence of parental modelling on child’s cognitions was also analyzed. Method: The final sample was composed of 111 children (62 boys; 49 girls) with ages between 10 and 11 years (M = 10.6, SD = 0.5) from a community population, and both their parents. The variables identified as most significant were included in a predictive model of anxiety. Results: Results revealed the children’s thoughts (positive and negative) related to ambiguous stimuli that describe anxiety situations. Parents’ fears and mothers’ anxiety significantly predict children’s anxiety. Those variables explain 29% of the variance in children general anxiety. No evidence was found for a direct parental modeling of child cognitions. Conclusion: Children’s positive thoughts seem to be cognitive aspects that buffer against anxiety. Negative thoughts are vulnerability factors for the development of child anxiety. Parents’ fears and anxiety should be analyzed in separate as they have distinct influences over children’s anxiety. Mothers’ fears contribute to children’s anxiety by reducing it, revealing a possible protective effect. It is suggested that the contribution of both parents’ fears to children’s anxiety may be interpreted acknowledging the existence of “psychological and/or behavioral filters”. Mothers’ filters seem to be well developed while fathers’ filters seem to be compromised. The contribution of mothers’ anxiety (but not fathers’ anxiety) to children’s anxiety is also understood in light of the possible existence of a “proximity space” between the child and parents, which is wider with mothers than with fathers.

Pesquisa de fungos endofíticos presentes em videira (Vitis vinifera L.) com capacidade para inibir o crescimento do agente causal da podridão negra (Guignardia bidwellii)

Neste trabalho testou-se o potencial antagonista de 16 fungos endofíticos isolados de videiras (Vitis vinifera L.), de castas representativas do Alentejo produzidas em modo de proteção integrada e em modo biológico, contra Guignardia bidwellii. Os isolados identificados após ITS-PCR e sequenciação pertencem aos géneros Epicoccum, Alternaria, Botrytis, Athelia, Phoma e Gibberella. Os isolados testados mostraram atividade antagonista contra G. bidwellii quer por inibição direta, quer através da produção de compostos voláteis, à exceção dos dois isolados de B. cinerea. No entanto, todos os isolados produziram alguns compostos voláteis com reconhecida atividade antimicrobiana, tais como benzaldeído, 3-metil-1-butanol e derivados de ácido propanoico. Foi ainda observado que seis dos isolados produziram também metabolitos não voláteis com capacidade de inibir o crescimento de G. bidwellii. Os resultados obtidos vêm mostrar o potencial dos fungos endofíticos como agentes de luta biológica no controlo de G. bidwellii, podendo constituir novas alternativas no âmbito de Proteção de Plantas; ABSTRACT: Endophytic fungi present in grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.) with the ability to inhibit the growth of the causal agent of black rot (Guignardia bidwellii) In this work the antagonistic potential of 16 endophytic grapevine fungi isolates (Vitis vinifera L.), from representative cultivars of the Alentejo region produced either under integrated pest management or organic mode, was tested against Guignardia bidwellii. Isolates were identified through ITS-PCR and sequencing, as belonging to the genera Epicoccum, Alternaria, Botrytis, Athelia, Phoma and Gibberella. Isolates showed antagonist activity against G. bidwellii either by direct inhibition or through the production of volatile compounds, with the exception of two isolates of B. cinerea. Nevertheless, all isolates produced volatile compounds with known antimicrobial activity such as benzaldehyde, 3-methyl-1-butanol and propionic acid derivatives. Additionally, six isolates produced non-volatile metabolites with the ability to inhibit G. bidwellii growth. These results show the potential that endophytic fungi have as agents for biological control of G. bidwellii, opening new options in the field of Plant Protection.

Post-transcriptional silencing of the SGE1 gene induced by a dsRNA hairpin in Fusarium oxysporum f. sp cubense, the causal agent of Panama disease.

Fusarium oxysporum f. sp cubense (Foc), the causal agent of Panama disease, is responsible for economic losses in banana crops worldwide. The identification of genes that effectively act on pathogenicity and/or virulence may contribute to the development of different strategies for disease control and the production of resistant plants. The objective of the current study was to analyze the importance of SGE1 gene expression in Foc virulence through post-transcriptional silencing using a double-stranded RNA hairpin.