Lake Ladoga: Water Resources for the Sustainable Development of North-Western Russia and Finland

The aim of this project was to evaluate the present state and possible changes of water resources in Lake Ladoga and its drainage basin for the purposes of the sustainable development of North-Western Russia and Finland. The group assessed the state of the water resources in quantitative and qualitative terms, taking the system of sustainable development indicators suggested by the International Commission on Sustainable Development as a basis for assessment. These include pressure indicators (annual withdrawals of ground and surface water, domestic consumption of water per capita), state indicators (ground water reserves, concentration of faecalcoliform in fresh water, biochemical oxygen demand), and response indicators (waste-water treatment coverage, density of hydrological networks). The group proposed the following additional indicators and indices for the complex evaluation of the qualitative and quantitative state of the region's water resources: * Pressure indicators (external load, coefficient of anthropogenic pressure) * State indicators and indices (concentrations of chemicals in water, concentrations of chemicals in sediments, index of water pollution, critical load, critical limit, internal load, load/critical load, concentration/critical limit, internal load/external load, trophic state, biotic indicators and indices) * Response indicators (discharges of pure water, polluted water, partly treated water and the ratio between these, trans-boundary fluxes of pollutants, state expenditure on environmental protection, human life span) The assessment considered both temporal and spatial aspects and produced a regional classification of the area according to the index of water pollution. Mathematical models were developed to describe and forecast the processes under way in the lake and can be used to estimate the influence of climatic changes on the hydrological regime, as well as the influence of anthropogenic load on the trophic state of Lake Ladoga and to assess the consequences of accidental discharges of polluting admixtures of different kinds into the lake. The results of this mathematical modelling may be of use to decision-makers responsible for the management of water resources.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Footprint of recycled water subsidies downwind of Lake Michigan

Continental evaporation is a significant and dynamic flux within the atmospheric water budget, but few methods provide robust observational constraints on the large-scale hydroclimatological and hydroecological impacts of this ‘recycled-water' flux. We demonstrate a geospatial analysis that provides such information, using stable isotope data to map the distribution of recycled water in shallow aquifers downwind from Lake Michigan. The δ2H and δ18O values of groundwater in the study region decrease from south to north, as expected based on meridional gradients in climate and precipitation isotope ratios. In contrast, deuterium excess (d = δ2H − 8 × δ18O) values exhibit a significant zonal gradient and finer-scale spatially patterned variation. Local d maxima occur in the northwest and southwest corners of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where ‘lake-effect' precipitation events are abundant. We apply a published model that describes the effect of recycling from lakes on atmospheric vapor d values to estimate that up to 32% of recharge into individual aquifers may be derived from recycled Lake Michigan water. Applying the model to geostatistical surfaces representing mean d values, we estimate that between 10% and 18% of the vapor evaporated from Lake Michigan is re-precipitated within downwind areas of the Lake Michigan drainage basin. Our approach provides previously unavailable observational constraints on regional land-atmosphere water fluxes in the Great Lakes Basin and elucidates patterns in recycled-water fluxes that may influence the biogeography of the region. As new instruments and networks facilitate enhanced spatial monitoring of environmental water isotopes, similar analyses can be widely applied to calibrate and validate water cycle models and improve projections of regional hydroecological change involving the coupled lake-atmosphere-land system. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES12-00062.1

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Status and Causal Pathway Assessments Supporting River Basin Management

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires a status assessment of all water bodies. If that status is deteriorated, the WFD urges the identification of its potential causes in order to be able to suggest appropriate management measures. The instrument of investigative monitoring allows for such identification, provided that appropriate tools are available to link the observed effects to causative stressors, while unravelling confounding factors. In this chapter, the state of the art of status and causal pathway assessment is described for the major stressors responsible for the deterioration of European water bodies, i.e. toxicity, acidification, salinisation, eutrophication and oxygen depletion, parasites and pathogens, invasive alien species, hydromorphological degradation, changing water levels as well as sediments and suspended matter. For each stressor, an extensive description of the potential effects on the ecological status is given. Secondly, stressor-specific abiotic and biotic indicators are described that allow for a first indication of probable causes, based on the assessment of available monitoring data. Subsequently, more advanced tools for site-specific confirmation of stressors at hand are discussed. Finally, the local status assessments are put into the perspective of the risk for downstream stretches in order to be able to prioritise stressors and to be able to select appropriate measures for mitigation of the risks resulting from these stressors.

Monitoring Programmes, Multiple Stress Analysis and Decision Support for River Basin Management

The identification of plausible causes for water body status deterioration will be much easier if it can build on available, reliable, extensive and comprehensive biogeochemical monitoring data (preferably aggregated in a database). A plausible identification of such causes is a prerequisite for well-informed decisions on which mitigation or remediation measures to take. In this chapter, first a rationale for an extended monitoring programme is provided; it is then compared to the one required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD). This proposal includes a list of relevant parameters that are needed for an integrated, a priori status assessment. Secondly, a few sophisticated statistical tools are described that subsequently allow for the estiation of the magnitude of impairment as well as the likely relative importance of different stressors in a multiple stressed environment. The advantages and restrictions of these rather complicated analytical methods are discussed. Finally, the use of Decision Support Systems (DSS) is advocated with regard to the specific WFD implementation requirements.

Morphology and evolution of the ejecta of Hale crater in Argyre basin, Mars: Results from high resolution mapping

We use various data sets, including images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment camera (HiRISE), to examine the ejecta of the generally fresh-looking Hale crater that occurs in the rugged mountain terrain of Nereidum Montes in the northern rim materials of the Argyre impact structure on Mars. Our investigation reveals that the distal parts of the Hale crater ejecta and other basin deposits behave like viscous flows, which we attribute to the secondary flow of ejecta mixed with water–ice-rich basin materials. Consistent with water-enrichment of the basin materials, our mapping further reveals occasionally deformed surfaces, including highly conspicuous features such as mounds and fractured plateaus that we interpret to be a result of periglacial modification, subsequent (including possibly present-day) to the transient localized melting and fluvial erosion caused by Hale-impact-generated heating. In particular, our morphometric analysis of a well-defined valley system west of Hale crater suggests that it may have been formed through hydrologic/glacial activity prior to the Hale impact, with additional modification resulting from the impact and subsequent geologic and hydrologic phenomena including glacial and periglacial activity.

Dating groundwater in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin: Understanding tracer variations in the subsurface

The northern section of the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin has been the site of intensive U exploitation with harmful impacts on groundwater quality. The understanding of groundwater flow and age distribution is crucial for the prediction of the future dispersion and impact of the contamination. State of the art tracer methods (3H, 3He, 4He, 85Kr, 39Ar and 14C) were, therefore, used to obtain insights to ageing and mixing processes of groundwater along a north–south flow line in the centre of the two most important aquifers of Cenomanian and middle Turonian age. Dating of groundwater is particularly complex in this area as: (i) groundwater in the Cenomanian aquifer is locally affected by fluxes of geogenic and biogenic gases (e.g. CO2, CH4, He) and by fossil brines in basement rocks rich in Cl and SO4; (ii) a thick unsaturated zone overlays the Turonian aquifer; (iii) a periglacial climate and permafrost conditions prevailed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and iv) the wells are mostly screened over large depth intervals. Large disagreements in 85Kr and 3H/3He ages indicate that processes other than ageing have affected the tracer data in the Turonian aquifer. Mixing with older waters (>50 a) was confirmed by 39Ar activities. An inverse modelling approach, which included time lags for tracer transport throughout the unsaturated zone and degassing of 3He, was used to estimate the age of groundwater. Best fits between model and field results were obtained for mean residence times varying from modern up to a few hundred years. The presence of modern water in this aquifer is correlated with the occurrence of elevated pollution (e.g. nitrates). An increase of reactive geochemical indicators (e.g. Na) and radiogenic 4He, and a decrease in 14C along the flow direction confirmed groundwater ageing in the deeper confined Cenomanian aquifer. Radiocarbon ages varied from a few hundred years to more than 20 ka. Initial 14C activity for radiocarbon dating was calibrated by means of 39Ar measurements. The 14C age of a sample recharged during the LGM was further confirmed by depleted stable isotope signatures and near freezing point noble gas temperature. Radiogenic 4He accumulated in groundwater with concentrations increasing linearly with 14C ages. This enabled the use of 4He to validate the dating range of 14C and extend it to other parts of this aquifer. In the proximity of faults, 39Ar in excess of modern concentrations and 14C dead CO2 sources, elevated 3He/4He ratios and volcanic activity in Oligocene to Quaternary demonstrate the influence of gas of deeper origin and impeded the application of 4He, 39Ar and 14C for groundwater dating.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Persistence of Artemisia steppe in the Tangra Yumco Basin, west-central Tibet, China: despite or in consequence of Holocene lake-level changes?

The closed Tangra Yumco Basin underwent the strongest Quaternary lake-level changes so far recorded on the Tibetan Plateau. It was hitherto unknown what effect this had on local Holocene vegetation development. A 3.6-m sediment core from a recessional lake terrace at 4,700 m a.s.l., 160 m above the present lake level of Tangra Yumco, was studied to reconstruct Holocene flooding phases (sedimentology and ostracod analyses), vegetation dynamics and human influence (palynology, charcoal and coprophilous fungi analyses). Peat at the base of the profile proves lake level was below 4,700 m a.s.l. during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. A deep-lake phase started after 11 cal ka BP, but the ostracod record indicates the level was not higher than similar to 4,720 m a.s.l. (180 m above present) and decreased gradually after the early Holocene maximum. Additional sediment ages from the basin suggest recession of Tangra Yumco from the coring site after 2.6 cal ka BP, with a shallow local lake persisting at the site until similar to 1 cal ka BP. The final peat formation indicates drier conditions thereafter. Persistence of Artemisia steppe during the Holocene lake high-stand resembles palynological records from west Tibet that indicate early Holocene aridity, in spite of high lake levels that may have resulted from meltwater input. Yet pollen assemblages indicate humidity closer to that of present potential forest areas near Lhasa, with 500-600 mm annual precipitation. Thus, the early mid-Holocene humidity was sufficient to sustain at least juniper forest, but Artemisia dominance persisted as a consequence of a combination of environmental disturbances such as (1) strong early Holocene climate fluctuations, (2) inundation of habitats suitable for forest, (3) extensive water surfaces that served as barriers to terrestrial diaspore transport from refuge areas, (4) strong erosion that denuded the non-flooded upper slopes and (5) increasing human influence since the late glacial.

Geophysical and Hydrological Evaluation of Two Bog Complexes in a Northern Peatland: Implications for the Distribution of Biogenic Gases at the Basin Scale

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) was used to determine peat basin geometry and the spatial distribution of free-phase biogenic gasses in two separate units of a northern peatland (Central and Southern Unit of Caribou Bog, Maine). The Central Unit is characterized by a deep basin structure (15 m maximum depth) and a raised (eccentric) bog topographic profile (up to 2 m topographic variation). Here numerous regions of electromagnetic (EM) wave scattering are considered diagnostic of the presence of extensive free-phase biogenic gas. In contrast, the Southern Unit is shallower (8 m maximum depth) and has a slightly convex upwards bog profile (less than 1 m topographic variation), and areas of EM wave scattering are notably absent. The biogenic gas zones interpreted from GPR in the Central Unit are associated with: (1) wooded heath vegetation at the surface, (2) open pools at the surface, (3) high water table elevations near the center of the basin, and (4) a region of overpressure (at approximately 5 m depth) immediately below the zone of free-phase gas accumulation. The latter suggests (1) a transient pressure head associated with low hydraulic conductivity resulting from the biogenic gasses themselves or confining layers in the peat that restrict both gas release and groundwater flow and/or (2) overpressure in the peat column as a result of the gas buildup itself. In contrast, the Southern Unit, where zones of EM scattering are absent, is characterized by: (1) predominantly shrub vegetation, (2) a lack of open pools, (3) only minor variations (less than 1 m) in water table elevation throughout the entire unit; and (4) generally upward groundwater flow throughout the basin. The results illustrate the nonuniformity of free-phase biogenic gas distribution at the peat basin scale and provide insights into the processes and controls associated with CH4 and CO2 accumulation in peatlands.

Simulation of the Impact of Dams and Fishing Weirs on Reproductive Potential of Silver-Phase American Eels in the Kennebec River Basin, Maine

I modeled the cumulative impact of hydroelectric projects with and without commercial fishing weirs and water-control dams on the production, survival to the sea, and potential fecundity of migrating female silver-phase American eels, Anguilla rostrata in the Kennebec River basin, Maine, This river basin has 22 hydroelectric projects, 73 water-control dams, and 15 commercial fishing weir sites. The modeled area included an 8,324 km(2) segment of the drainage area between Merrymeeting Bay and the upper limit of American eel distribution in the basin. One set of input,, (assumed or real values) concerned population structure (Le., population density and sex ratio changes throughout the basin, female length-class distribution, and drainage area between dams), Another set concerned factors influencing survival and potential fecundity of migrating American eels (i.e., pathway sequences through projects, survival rate per project by length-class. and length-fecundity relationship). Under baseline conditions about 402,400 simulated silver female American eels would be produced annually reductions in their numbers due to dams and weirs would reduce the realized fecundity (i.e., the number of eggs produced by all females that survived the migration). Without weirs or water-control dams, about 63% of the simulated silverphase American eels survived their freshwater spawning migration run to the sea when the survival rate at each hydroelectric dam was 9017, 40% survived at 80% survival per dam, and 18% survived at 60% survival per dam. Removing the lowermost hydroelectric dam on the Kennebec River increased survival by 6.0-7.6% for the basin. The efficient commercial weirs reduced survival to the sea to 69-76%( of what it would have been without weirs', regardless of survival rates at hydroelectric dams. Water-control dams had little impact on production in this basin because most were located in the upper reaches of tributaries. Sensitivity analysis led to the conclusion that small changes in population density and female length distribution had greater effects on survival and realized fecundity than similar changes in turbine survival rate. The latter became more important as turbine survival rate decreased. Therefore, it might be more fruitful to determine population distribution in basins of interest than to determine mortality rate at each hydroelectric project.

Modelling Lake Kivu water level variations over the last seven decades

This study aimed at analysing the hydrological changes in the Lake Kivu Basin over the last seven decades with focus on the response of the lake water level to meteorological factors and hydropower dam construction. Historical precipitation and lake water levels were acquired from literature, local agencies and from global databases in order to compile a coherent dataset. The net lake inflow was modelled using a soil water balance model and the water levels were reconstructed using a parsimonious lake water balance model. The soil water balance shows that 370 mm yr−1 (25%) of the precipitation in the catchment contributes to the runoff and baseflow whereas 1100 mm yr−1 (75%) contributes to the evapotranspiration. A review of the lake water balance resulted in the following estimates of hydrological contributions: 55%, 25%, and 20% of the overall inputs from precipitation, surface inflows, and subaquatic groundwater discharge, respectively. The overall losses were 58% and 42% for lake surface evaporation and outflow discharge, respectively. The hydrological model used indicated a remarkable sensitivity of the lake water levels to hydrometeorological variability up to 1977, when the outflow bed was artificially widened.

Helium transfer from water into quartz crystals: A new approach for porewater dating

Several important fundamental and applied problems require a quantification of slow rates of groundwater flow. To resolve these problems helium appears to be a promising tracer. In this contribution we discuss a new approach, which gives the helium inventory in a rock – pore water system by using the relevant mineral record, i.e., without extraction and investigation of the porewater samples. Some U- and Th-poor minerals such as quartz (quartz separates from Permo-Carboniferous Formation, sandstone–shale interlayering, Molasses Basin, Northern Switzerland, hereafter PCF, are used in this study) contain excessive helium having migrated into their internal helium-accessible volume (HAV) from the surrounding porewater [I.N. Tolstikhin, B.E. Lehmann, H.H. Loosli, A. Gautschi, Helium and argon isotopes in rocks, minerals and related groundwaters: a case study in Northern Switzerland, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 1497–1514]. These volumes are estimated by using helium as a nano-size penetrating tool, i.e., by saturation of the minerals with helium under controlled pressure–temperature conditions and subsequent measurements of the helium-saturated concentrations. In the quartz separates HAV/total volume ratios vary from 0.017% to 0.16%; along with the measured initial (unsaturated) He concentration the HAV gives the internal helium pressure, the mean value obtained for 7 samples (25 sample aliquots) is P=0.45F0.15 atm (1 r). The product of helium pressure and solubility (7.35_10_3 cc STP He/cc H2O for the temperature and salinity of PCF aquifers reported in [F.J. Pearson, W. Balderer, H.H. Loosli, B.E. Lehmann, A. Matter, T. Peters, H. Schmassmann, A. Gautschi, Applied Isotope Hydrogeology–A Case Study in Northern Switzerland, Elsevier Amsterdam, 1991, 439 pp.]) is the mineral-derived He concentration in the respective porewater, CPW=0.0035F0.0017 cc He/cc H2O. This value is in full accord with measured He concentrations in PCF aquifers, CPCF, varying from 0.0045 to 0.0016 cc He/cc H2O. This agreement validates the proposed approach and also shows that the mineral–porewater helium–concentration equilibrium has been established. Indeed, estimates of the He-migration rates through our quartz samples show that in ~6000 years the internal pressure should equilibrate with He-concentration in related porewater of PCF, and this time interval is short compared to independent estimates [I.N. Tolstikhin, B.E. Lehmann, H.H. Loosli, A. Gautschi, Helium and argon isotopes in rocks, minerals and related groundwaters: a case study in Northern Switzerland, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 1497–1514]. The helium inventory in the rock–porewater assemblage shows that helium abundance in pore waters is indeed important. In shale samples (with ~15% porosity) porewaters contain more helium than the host minerals altogether. Porewater heliumconcentration profiles, available from the mineral record, along with helium production rates are input parameters allowing model(s) of helium migration through a hydrological structure to be developed. Quite high helium concentrations in PCF porewaters imply slow removal mechanisms, which will be discussed elsewhere.