Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

Digital soil mapping: evaluation of sampling systems for soil surveys and refinement of soil maps at lower cost using legacy data

In soil surveys, several sampling systems can be used to define the most representative sites for sample collection and description of soil profiles. In recent years, the conditioned Latin hypercube sampling system has gained prominence for soil surveys. In Brazil, most of the soil maps are at small scales and in paper format, which hinders their refinement. The objectives of this work include: (i) to compare two sampling systems by conditioned Latin hypercube to map soil classes and soil properties; (II) to retrieve information from a detailed scale soil map of a pilot watershed for its refinement, comparing two data mining tools, and validation of the new soil map; and (III) to create and validate a soil map of a much larger and similar area from the extrapolation of information extracted from the existing soil map. Two sampling systems were created by conditioned Latin hypercube and by the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube. At each prospection place, soil classification and measurement of the A horizon thickness were performed. Maps were generated and validated for each sampling system, comparing the efficiency of these methods. The conditioned Latin hypercube captured greater variability of soils and properties than the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube, despite the former provided greater difficulty in field work. The conditioned Latin hypercube can capture greater soil variability and the cost-constrained conditioned Latin hypercube presents great potential for use in soil surveys, especially in areas of difficult access. From an existing detailed scale soil map of a pilot watershed, topographical information for each soil class was extracted from a Digital Elevation Model and its derivatives, by two data mining tools. Maps were generated using each tool. The more accurate of these tools was used for extrapolation of soil information for a much larger and similar area and the generated map was validated. It was possible to retrieve the existing soil map information and apply it on a larger area containing similar soil forming factors, at much low financial cost. The KnowledgeMiner tool for data mining, and ArcSIE, used to create the soil map, presented better results and enabled the use of existing soil map to extract soil information and its application in similar larger areas at reduced costs, which is especially important in development countries with limited financial resources for such activities, such as Brazil.

CEPAL Review no. 113

Development then and now: Idea and utopia / Rolando Cordera Campos .-- Latin America’s competitive position in knowledge-intensive services trade / Andrés López, Andrés Niembro and Daniela Ramos .-- Wage share and economic growth in Latin America, 1950-2011 / Germán Alarco Tosoni .-- Patterns of technical progress in the Brazilian economy, 1952-2008 / Adalmir Marquetti and Melody de Campos Soares Porsse .-- Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys / Pilar Poncela, Víctor M. Guerrero, Alejandro Islas, Julio Rodríguez and Rocío Sánchez-Mangas .-- Expectations and industrial output in Uruguay: Sectoral interdependence and common trends / Bibiana Lanzilotta .-- Argentina: Impacts of the child allowance programme on the labour-market behaviour of adults / Roxana Maurizio and Gustavo Vázquez .-- Occupational mobility and income differentials: The experience of Brazil between 2002 and 2010 / Sandro Eduardo Monsueto, Julimar da Silva Bichara and André Moreira Cunha .-- What does the National High School Exam (enem) tell Brazilian society? / Rodrigo Travitzki, Jorge Calero and Carlota Boto .-- Brazil’s Northeast Financing Constitutional Fund: Differentiated effects on municipal economic growth / Fabrício Carneiro Linhares, Ricardo Brito Soares, Marcos Falcão Gonçalves and Luiz Fernando Gonçalves Viana.

Evaluation report: regional workshop on informal sector surveys in the Caribbean's subregion

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) with support from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Central Statistical Office in Saint Lucia convened a two-day Regional Workshop on Informal Sector Surveys for the Caribbean Subregion from 12 – 13 October 2009 in Castries, Saint Lucia. This workshop was one of the culminating activities of the United Nations Statistical Division-commissioned project Measurement of the Informal Sector and Informal Employment being conducted in the subregion since 2007. It was aimed primarily at disseminating the results of a 1-2 survey of the informal sector which was carried out in Saint Lucia over the period April 2008 to January 2009.

Regional workshop on informal sector surveys in the Caribbean subregion

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, with support from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the Central Statistics Office in Saint Lucia, convened a two-day Data Dissemination Workshop on the Informal Sector and Informal Employment on 12 -13 October 2009 in Castries, Saint Lucia. This workshop was one of the culminating activities of the Interregional Project on the Measurement of the Informal Sector and Informal Employment being conducted in the Caribbean subregion. The workshop served as a forum for presenting the findings of the survey of the informal sector which was carried out in Saint Lucia over the period April 2008 to January 2009.

Análise da não resposta em surveys políticos

Este artigo analisa a estrutura social dos entrevistados que apontam o item não resposta em um survey sobre assuntos políticos. Para isso foi realizado um survey com 2.110 jovens eleitores da rede pública de ensino em Belém (PA). Os dados indicam que a quota da não resposta aumenta com a mudança de um ciclo de vida para outro ou com a própria experiência obtida pelos efeitos das políticas públicas, o que deixa o entrevistado em dúvida em relação aos valores e opiniões estabelecidos.

Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

1. Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2. We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3. Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4. A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modeling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5. All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6. Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modeling analysis engine for spatial and habitat-modeling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7. Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of- the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the methods accessible to practicing ecologists.

Temporal changes in benthic megafaunal abundance and composition across the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf: Results from video surveys

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf experiences intense seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton production and particulate-organic-carbon flux to the seafloor. To explore the response of the megabenthic community to this production variability, we conducted video surveys of epibenthic megafauna at three stations on the WAP shelf in Nov-Dec 1999, Mar 2000, Jun 2000, Oct-Nov 2000, and Feb-Mar 2001. The epibenthic megafauna was dominated (>90%) by elasipod holothurians, irregular urchins and anthozoans, with total abundances ranging from 19 to 152 ind. 1 00 m(-2). The abundance of three of the dominant taxa (Protelpidia murrayi, Peniagone vignomi, and Amphipneustes spp.) varied significantly across seasons (p <0.05), although variations were not tightly correlated with the summer bloom cycle. The irregular urchins in the genus Amphipneustes varied 5-fold in abundance at single stations, with maximum densities (an average of 10.1 ind. 100 m(-2)) attained in Jun 2000. Abundances of the elasipod holothurians P. murrayi (1-121 ind. 100 m(-2)) and P. vignoni (0.7-27.5 ind. 100 m(-2)) fell within the range for elasipod holothurians from other bathyal regions measured using image analysis. The abundance of P. murrayi increased up to 6-fold from a single Jun-Oct recruitment pulse, while changes in the abundance of P. vignoni (over 2-fold higher in Feb-Mar 2001) apparently resulted from immigration during the presence of a 1-2 cm thick carpet of fresh phytocletritus. Based on the ratio of the number of fecal casts per individual, elasipod holothurians increased surface-deposit feeding rates by >= 2-fold while phytocletritus was present at the seafloor. Nonetheless, these surface-deposit feeders appeared to feed and egest sediments throughout the winter, which is consistent with year-round persistence of a labile food bank in surficial sediments on the deep WAP shelf.

Relevant methodological issues from the SBBrasil 2010 Project for national health surveys

The SBBrasil 2010 Project (SBB10) was designed as a nationwide oral health epidemiological survey within a health surveillance strategy. This article discusses methodological aspects of the SBB10 Project that can potentially help expand and develop knowledge in the health field. This was a nationwide survey with stratified multi-stage cluster sampling. The sample domains were 27 State capitals and 150 rural municipalities (counties) from the country's five major geographic regions. The sampling units were census tracts and households for the State capitals and municipalities, census tracts, and households for the rural areas. Thirty census tracts were selected in the State capitals and 30 municipalities in the countryside. The precision considered the demographic domains grouped by density of the overall population and the internal variability of oral health indices. The study evaluated dental caries, periodontal disease, malocclusion, fluorosis, tooth loss, and dental trauma in five age groups (5, 12, 15-19, 35-44, and 65-74 years).

The full Fisher matrix for galaxy surveys

Starting from the Fisher matrix for counts in cells, we derive the full Fisher matrix for surveys of multiple tracers of large-scale structure. The key step is the classical approximation, which allows us to write the inverse of the covariance of the galaxy counts in terms of the naive matrix inverse of the covariance in a mixed position-space and Fourier-space basis. We then compute the Fisher matrix for the power spectrum in bins of the 3D wavenumber , the Fisher matrix for functions of position (or redshift z) such as the linear bias of the tracers and/or the growth function and the cross-terms of the Fisher matrix that expresses the correlations between estimations of the power spectrum and estimations of the bias. When the bias and growth function are fully specified, and the Fourier-space bins are large enough that the covariance between them can be neglected, the Fisher matrix for the power spectrum reduces to the widely used result that was first derived by Feldman, Kaiser & Peacock. Assuming isotropy, a fully analytical calculation of the Fisher matrix in the classical approximation can be performed in the case of a constant-density, volume-limited survey.

Can Roads Be Used as Transects for Primate Population Surveys?

Line transect distance sampling (LTDS) can be applied to either trails or roads. However, it is likely that sampling along roads might result in biased density estimates. In this paper, we compared the results obtained with LTDS applied on trails and roads for two primate species (Callithrix penicillata and Callicebus nigrifrons) to clarify whether roads are appropriate transects to estimate densities. We performed standard LTDS surveys in two nature reserves in south-eastern Brazil. Effective strip width and population density were different between trails and roads for C. penicillata, but not for C. nigrifrons. The results suggest that roads are not appropriate for use as transects in primate surveys, at least for some species. Further work is required to fully understand this issue, but in the meantime we recommend that researchers avoid using roads as transects or treat roads and trails as covariates when sampling on roads is unavoidable. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Inter-regional wage differentials with individual heterogeneity: evidence from Brazil

This paper uses administrative data to follow Brazilian workers over time and examine what happens to the inter-regional wage differentials after controlling for unmeasured workers' characteristics that are fixed over time. Since the data allow us to track the same workers over the years, we are in the unusual position of obtaining the individual wages before and after the migration process. As a significant share of workers changed States in the sample period, it is possible to examine to what extent the wage differentials reflect the concentration of high-skilled individuals in some States. The results show that the overall wage variability across States drops to almost one third of its original value and the ranking of the State effects is significantly altered after we take into account the workers' fixed effects. A great deal of the inter-regional differentials, therefore, reflects differences in the average ability of workers across States.