An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The BRCA2 372 HH genotype is associated with risk of breast cancer in Australian women under age 60 years

The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.

Age-related lifecycles - Purpose variations

By describing and discussing Australian data on outbound tourism, this paper investigates the bimodal (double peaked) lifecycle pattern predicted and observed in the literature. These theories are primarily based on demand for holiday tourism, but tourists do not just go overseas for this purpose, with visiting friends and relatives, business, convention and conference, employment and educational tourism relevant purposes also. Trips overseas by Australians are split into these groups, enabling the age-related lifecycles of each to be examined separately. Unlike holiday tourism, all other purposes are unimodal, although they vary with respect to the age groups at which they peak and their relative positions.

Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions in children studying in special schools

Objectives: The present study aimed to investigate the feasibility and practicalities or testing children in special school settings using transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAE) and tympanometry. Children studying in special schools, particularly those with intellectual impairment, may be highly susceptible to hearing pathologies and can be difficult to assess using traditional test batteries. Researchers have recently suggested the possible applicability of TEOAE testing. in lieu of conventional behavioral methods, as a hearing screening device for persons with intellectual impairment. However, to date. few publications have detailed the particulars and results of such testing. Methods: A total of 489 children, with a mean age of 9.6 years, were tested in 15 special schools. Case information was obtained regarding birth history, medical history and type,degree of impairment, for later comparison with screening results. TEOAEs were collected using Quickscreen mode of the ILO292 Otodynamics Analyzer, whilst tympanometry was performed utilizing a Madsen Zodiac 901 Middle Ear Analyzer. Results: In total, 80% of students were able to be tested using TEOAEs. Average test time per ear was 2 min. However, a large proportion (40 of those able to be tested) failed TEOAE testing in at least one ear. No significant effects were found between could-not-test (CNT) cases and case history factors, A significant difference in TEOAE failure rates was found across history of neonatal special care nursery residency and history of parental concern regarding possible hearing impairment. Failure rates were higher for those who indicated positive histories. A total of 74% of subjects could be tested using tympanometry, with 25% of those able to be tested failing in at least one ear. Notably, neither type nor degree of impairment had any significant bearing on CNT or failure rates for tympanometry or TEOAE screening. Conclusions: Findings of the present investigation lend support to the review of hearing screening programs for children in special schools. with TEOAEs presenting as a potential alternative procedure. Further examination of the performance measures of protocols incorporating TEOAEs would now be advantageous. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Acoustic signature of the normal swallow: Characterization by age, gender, and bolus volume

Despite growing clinical use, cervical auscultation suffers from a lack of research-based data. One of the strongest criticisms of cervical auscultation is that there has been little research to demonstrate how dysphagic swallowing sounds are different from normal swallowing sounds, In order to answer this question, however, one first needs to document the acoustic characteristics of normal, nondysphagic swallowing sounds, This article provides the first normative database of normal swallowing sounds for the adult population. The current investigation documents the acoustic characteristics of normal swallowing sounds for individuals from 18 to more than 60 years of age over a range of thin liquid volumes. Previous research has shown the normal swallow to be a dynamic event. The normal swallow is sensitive to aging of the oropharyngeal system, and also to the volume of bolus swallowed. The current investigation found that the acoustic signals generated during swallowing were sensitive to an individual's age and to the volume of the bolus swallowed. There were also some gender-specific differences in the acoustic profile of the swallowing sound, It is anticipated that the results will provide a catalyst for further research into cervical auscultation.

Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth

TROST. S. G., R. R. PATE, J. F. SALLIS, P. S. FREEDSON, W. C. TAYLOR, M. DOWDA, and J. SIRARD. Age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity in youth. Med. Sci. Sports Ererc., Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 350-355, 2002. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate age and gender differences in objectively measured physical activity (PA) in a population-based sample of students in grades 1-12. Methods: Participants (185 male, 190 female) wore a CSA 7164 accelerometer for 7 consecutive days. To examine age-related trends. students were grouped as follows: grades 1-3 (N = 90), grades 4-6 (N = 91), grades 7-9 (N = 96). and grades 10-12 (N = 92). Bouts of PA and minutes spent in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) were examined. Results: Daily MVPA and VPA exhibited a significant inverse relationship with grade level, with the largest differences occurring between grades 1d-3 and 4-6. Boys were more active than girls; however, for overall PA, the magnitudes of the gender differences were modest. Participation in continuous 20-min bouts of PA was low to nonexistent. Conclusion: Our results support the notion that PA declines rapidly during childhood and adolescence and that accelerometers are feasible alternatives to self-report methods in moderately sized population-level surveillance studies.

An age hardening model for Al-7Si-Mg casting alloys

Yield strength (YS) ageing curves have been modelled for A356 and A357 aluminium casting alloys below the solvus temperature of the main hardening precipitate. Predictions are based on the Shercliff and Ashby methodology (Acta MetaH. Mater. 38 (1990) 1789) for wrought alloys. Differences between strengthening in wrought and cast Al-Si-Mg alloys are considered. A Brinell hardness to YS conversion incorporating strain hardening has been established to enable YS ageing curves to be predicted with reduced experimental effort. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Age does not influence the bone response to treadmill exercise in female rats

Purpose: Because it is believed that bone may respond to exercise differently at different ages, we compared bone responses in immature and mature rats after 12 wk of treadmill running. Methods: Twenty-two immature (5-wk-old) and 21 mature (17-wk-old) female Sprague Dawley rats were randomized into a running (trained, N = 10 immature, 9 mature) or a control group (controls, N 12 immature, 12 mature) before sacrifice 12 wk later. Rats ran on a treadmill five times per week for 60-70 min at speeds up to 26 m.min(-1). Both at baseline and after intervention, we measured total body, lumbar spine, and proximal femoral bone mineral, as well as total body soft tissue composition using dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in vivo. After sacrificing the animals, we measured dynamic and static histomorphometry and three-point bending strength of the tibia. Results: Running training was associated with greater differences in tibial subperiosteal area, cortical cross-sectional area, peak load, stiffness, and moment of inertia in immature and mature rats (P < 0.05). The trained rats had greater periosteal bone formation rates (P < 0.01) than controls, but there was no difference in tibial trabecular bone histomorphometry. Similar running-related gains were seen in DXA lumbar spine area (P = 0.04) and bone mineral content (BMC; P = 0.03) at both ages. For total body bone area and BMC, the immature trained group increased significantly compared with controls (P < 0.05), whereas the mature trained group gained less than did controls (P < 0.01). Conclusion: In this in vivo model, where a similar physical training program was performed by immature and mature female rats, we demonstrated that both age groups were sensitive to loading and that bone strength gains appeared to result more from changes in bone geometry than from improved material properties.

The influence of increased line-fishing mortality on the sex ratio and age of sex reversal of the venus tusk fish

The age of sex reversal of the venus tusk fish Choerodon venustus, caught by line fishing at various locations on the southern Great Barrier Reef, indicated that C. venustus is capable of modifying its life cycle in response to increased mortality. The evidence suggests Masthead Reef fish, which experience the highest mortality, underwent sex reversal at a smaller size and younger age than at the other sites. The largest female fish, sexually transitional fish and males were smaller at Masthead Reef than at the Swains Reefs or One Tree Reef at Masthead Reef. There was also considerable overlap in the size of males and females within the exploited populations indicating that sex reversal is not initiated at a particular length but may have a social cause. The sex ratio of fish was essentially the same for fish fully susceptible to line fishing in the Swains and Masthead samples. Circumstantial evidence suggested that the absence of large males in a population may initiate sex reversal, indicating the maintenance of a constant sex ratio may have a social basis. (C) 2002 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Knowledge of the national emergency telephone number and prevalence and characteristics of those trained in CPR in Queensland: baseline information for targeted training interventions

Members of the community contribute to survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest by contacting emergency medical services and performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) prior to the arrival of an ambulance. In Australia there is a paucity of information of the extent that community members know the emergency telephone number and are trained in CPR. A survey of Queensland adults (n = 4490) was conducted to ascertain current knowledge and training levels and to target CPR training. Although most respondents (88.3%) could state the Australian emergency telephone number correctly, significant age differences were apparent (P < 0.001). One in five respondents aged 60 years and older could not state the emergency number correctly. While just over half the respondents (53.9%) had completed some form of CPR training, only 12.1% had recent training. Older people were more likely to have never had CPR training than young adults. Additional demographic and socio-economic differences were found between those never trained in CPR and those who were. The results emphasise the need to increase CPR training in those aged 40 and over, particularly females, and to increase the awareness of the emergency telephone number amongst older people. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in sunshine duration and its association with schizophrenia birth rates and age at first registration - data from Australia and the Netherlands

Back ground. Based on the well-described excess of schizophrenia births in winter and spring, we hypothesised that individuals with schizophrenia (a) would be more likely to be born during periods of decreased perinatal sunshine, and (b) those born during periods of less sunshine would have an earlier age of first registration. Methods. We undertook an ecological analysis of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration and schizophrenia birth rates based on two mental health registers (Queensland. Australia n = 6630; The Netherlands n = 24, 474). For each of the 480 months between 1931 and 1970, the agreement between slopes of the trends in psychosis and long-term sunshine duration series were assessed. Age at first registration was assessed by quartiles of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration, Males and females were assessed separately. Results. Both the Dutch and Australian data showed a statistically significant association between falling long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth and rising schizophrenia birth rates for males only. In both the Dutch and Australian data there were significant associations between earlier age of first registration and reduced long-term trends in sunshine duration around the time of birth for both males and females, Conclusions. A measure of long-term trends in perinatal sunshine duration was associated with two epidemiological features of schizophrenia in two separate data sets. Exposures related to sunshine duration warrant further consideration in schizophrenia research. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceptions of younger, middle-aged, and older adults in Australia and Japan: Stereotypes and age group vitality

This study investigated the perceptions of young adults in Japan and Australia about their own age group, as well as middle-aged and older adults. Using a self-administered questionnaire, 155 Japanese and 171 Australian students rated people in the three age groups on traits of personal vitality and benevolence, and also rated their age group vitalities. Results indicated that Australians perceived both middle-aged and older adults in more positive terms than did Japanese and also perceived the vitality of these age groups as higher. On the other hand, both Japanese and Australian young people judged the vitality of their own group as lower than that of middle-aged adults. These results suggest that norms of filial piety, especially its respect dimension, in Japan may be eroding, whereas older Australians may be gaining in social stature.