A Retail benchmarking approach to eficient two-way access pricing

We study a retail benchmarking approach to determine access prices for interconnected networks. Instead of considering fixed access charges as in the existing literature, we study access pricing rules that determine the access price that network i pays to network j as a linear function of the marginal costs and the retail prices set by both networks. In the case of competition in linear prices, we show that there is a unique linear rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium, independently of the underlying demand conditions. In the case of competition in two-part tariffs, we consider a class of access pricing rules, similar to the optimal one under linear prices but based on average retail prices. We show that firms choose the variable price equal to the marginal cost under this class of rules. Therefore, the regulator (or the competition authority) can choose one among the rules to pursue additional objectives such as consumer surplus, network covera.

Detection of testosterone administration based on the carbon isotope ratio profiling of endogenous steroids: international reference populations of professional soccer players.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The determination of the carbon isotope ratio in androgen metabolites has been previously shown to be a reliable, direct method to detect testosterone misuse in the context of antidoping testing. Here, the variability in the 13C/12C ratios in urinary steroids in a widely heterogeneous cohort of professional soccer players residing in different countries (Argentina, Italy, Japan, South Africa, Switzerland and Uganda) is examined. METHODS: Carbon isotope ratios of selected androgens in urine specimens were determined using gas chromatography/combustion/isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). RESULTS: Urinary steroids in Italian and Swiss populations were found to be enriched in 13C relative to other groups, reflecting higher consumption of C3 plants in these two countries. Importantly, detection criteria based on the difference in the carbon isotope ratio of androsterone and pregnanediol for each population were found to be well below the established threshold value for positive cases. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained with the tested diet groups highlight the importance of adapting the criteria if one wishes to increase the sensitivity of exogenous testosterone detection. In addition, confirmatory tests might be rendered more efficient by combining isotope ratio mass spectrometry with refined interpretation criteria for positivity and subject-based profiling of steroids.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Multinational Firms’ Heterogeneity in Tax Responsiveness: the Role of Transfer Pricing

In this paper we show that the ability of multinational firms to manipulate transfer prices affects the tax sensitivity of foreign direct investment (FDI). We offer a model of international capital allocation where firms are heterogeneous in their ability to manipulate transfer prices. Perhaps paradoxically, we show that the ability to shift profits can make parent companies' investment more sensitive to host-country tax rates, as long as investors expect fisscal authorities to use price and profit detection methods. We then offer a comprehensive empirical study to test our predictions in the case of Japanese FDI. We exploit the finding that the unobservable ability to manipulate transfer prices is correlated with whole ownership of a±liates and R&D expenditure. Based on country, parent firm and sector characteristics, we estimate an investment equation on a sample of 3614 Japanese affiliates in 49 emerging countries. We obtain a greater semi-elasticity of investment to the statutory tax rate in a±liates that are wholly-owned and that have R&D intensive parents. We interpret these results as indirect evidence that abusive transfer pricing is one of the determinants of FDI activity.

Chebyshev polynomial approximation to approximate partial differential equations

This paper suggests a simple method based on Chebyshev approximation at Chebyshev nodes to approximate partial differential equations. The methodology simply consists in determining the value function by using a set of nodes and basis functions. We provide two examples. Pricing an European option and determining the best policy for chatting down a machinery. The suggested method is flexible, easy to program and efficient. It is also applicable in other fields, providing efficient solutions to complex systems of partial differential equations.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 2)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS), which allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Spatial Interactions in Hedonic Pricing Models: The Urban Housing Market of Aveiro, Portugal

Spatial heterogeneity, spatial dependence and spatial scale constitute key features of spatial analysis of housing markets. However, the common practice of modelling spatial dependence as being generated by spatial interactions through a known spatial weights matrix is often not satisfactory. While existing estimators of spatial weights matrices are based on repeat sales or panel data, this paper takes this approach to a cross-section setting. Specifically, based on an a priori definition of housing submarkets and the assumption of a multifactor model, we develop maximum likelihood methodology to estimate hedonic models that facilitate understanding of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial interactions. The methodology, based on statistical orthogonal factor analysis, is applied to the urban housing market of Aveiro, Portugal at two different spatial scales.

The rise and fall of piecework–timework wage differentials: market volatility, labor heterogeneity, and output pricing

Based on detailed payroll data of blue collar male and female labor in Britain’s engineering and metal working industrial sectors between the mid-1920s and mid-1960s, we provide empirical evidence in respect of several central themes in the piecework-timework wage literature. The period covers part of the heyday of pieceworking as well as the start of its post-war decline. We show the importance of relative piece rate flexibility during the Great Depression as well as during the build up to WWII and during the war itself. We account for the very significant decline in the differentials after the war. Labor market topics include piecework pay in respect of compensating differentials, labor heterogeneity, and the transaction costs of pricing piecework output.

Long-term effect of a school-based physical activity program (KISS) on fitness and adiposity in children: a cluster-randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: School-based intervention studies promoting a healthy lifestyle have shown favorable immediate health effects. However, there is a striking paucity on long-term follow-ups. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the 3 yr-follow-up of a cluster-randomized controlled school-based physical activity program over nine month with beneficial immediate effects on body fat, aerobic fitness and physical activity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Initially, 28 classes from 15 elementary schools in Switzerland were grouped into an intervention (16 classes from 9 schools, n = 297 children) and a control arm (12 classes from 6 schools, n = 205 children) after stratification for grade (1st and 5th graders). Three years after the end of the multi-component physical activity program of nine months including daily physical education (i.e. two additional lessons per week on top of three regular lessons), short physical activity breaks during academic lessons, and daily physical activity homework, 289 (58%) participated in the follow-up. Primary outcome measures included body fat (sum of four skinfolds), aerobic fitness (shuttle run test), physical activity (accelerometry), and quality of life (questionnaires). After adjustment for grade, gender, baseline value and clustering within classes, children in the intervention arm compared with controls had a significantly higher average level of aerobic fitness at follow-up (0.373 z-score units [95%-CI: 0.157 to 0.59, p = 0.001] corresponding to a shift from the 50th to the 65th percentile between baseline and follow-up), while the immediate beneficial effects on the other primary outcomes were not sustained. CONCLUSIONS: Apart from aerobic fitness, beneficial effects seen after one year were not maintained when the intervention was stopped. A continuous intervention seems necessary to maintain overall beneficial health effects as reached at the end of the intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ControlledTrials.com ISRCTN15360785.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas

We study the asymmetric and dynamic dependence between financial assets and demonstrate, from the perspective of risk management, the economic significance of dynamic copula models. First, we construct stock and currency portfolios sorted on different characteristics (ex ante beta, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flows), and find substantial evidence of dynamic evolution between the high beta (respectively, coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios and the low beta (coskewness, cokurtosis and order flow) portfolios. Second, using three different dependence measures, we show the presence of asymmetric dependence between these characteristic-sorted portfolios. Third, we use a dynamic copula framework based on Creal et al. (2013) and Patton (2012) to forecast the portfolio Value-at-Risk of long-short (high minus low) equity and FX portfolios. We use several widely used univariate and multivariate VaR models for the purpose of comparison. Backtesting our methodology, we find that the asymmetric dynamic copula models provide more accurate forecasts, in general, and, in particular, perform much better during the recent financial crises, indicating the economic significance of incorporating dynamic and asymmetric dependence in risk management.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

A web-based pilot study of inter-pathologist reproducibility using the ISHLT 2004 working formulation for biopsy diagnosis of cardiac allograft rejection: The European experience.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess, at the European level and using digital technology, the inter-pathologist reproducibility of the ISHLT 2004 system and to compare it with the 1990 system We also assessed the reproducibility of the morphologic criteria for diagnosis of antibody-mediated rejection detailed in the 2004 grading system. METHODS: The hematoxylin-eosin-stained sections of 20 sets of endomyocardial biopsies were pre-selected and graded by two pathologists (A.A. and M.B.) and digitized using a telepathology digital pathology system (Aperio ImageScope System; for details refer to http://aperio.com/). Their diagnoses were considered the index diagnoses, which covered all grades of acute cellular rejection (ACR), early ischemic lesions, Quilty lesions, late ischemic lesions and (in the 2005 system) antibody-mediated rejection (AMR). Eighteen pathologists from 16 heart transplant centers in 7 European countries participated in the study. Inter-observer reproducibility was assessed using Fleiss's kappa and Krippendorff's alpha statistics. RESULTS: The combined kappa value of all grades diagnosed by all 18 pathologists was 0.31 for the 1990 grading system and 0.39 for the 2005 grading system, with alpha statistics at 0.57 and 0.55, respectively. Kappa values by grade for 1990/2005, respectively, were: 0 = 0.52/0.51; 1A/1R = 0.24/0.36; 1B = 0.15; 2 = 0.13; 3A/2R = 0.29/0.29; 3B/3R = 0.13/0.23; and 4 = 0.18. For the 2 cases of AMR, 6 of 18 pathologists correctly suspected AMR on the hematoxylin-eosin slides, whereas, in each of 17 of the 18 AMR-negative cases a small percentage of pathologists (range 5% to 33%) overinterpreted the findings as suggestive for AMR. CONCLUSIONS: Reproducibility studies of cardiac biopsies by pathologists in different centers at the international level were feasible using digitized slides rather than conventional histology glass slides. There was a small improvement in interobserver agreement between pathologists of different European centers when moving from the 1990 ISHLT classification to the "new" 2005 ISHLT classification. Morphologic suspicion of AMR in the 2004 system on hematoxylin-eosin-stained slides only was poor, highlighting the need for better standardization of morphologic criteria for AMR. Ongoing educational programs are needed to ensure standardization of diagnosis of both acute cellular and antibody-mediated rejection.

The use and limitations of ultrasonography in the diagnosis of liver morbidity attributable to Schistosoma mansoni infection in community-based surveys

The objective of this population-based study was to estimate the liver morbidity attributable to Schistosoma mansoni infection by ultrasonography adopting the proposed standard protocols of the Cairo Meeting on Ultrasonography, 1991. We examined 2384 individuals representing 20 of the households of the rural population of the Ismailia Governorate, East of Delta, Egypt. Prevalence of S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections were 40.3 and 1.7 respectively. Portal tract thickening (PTT) grade 1, 2 and 3 considered diagnostic of schistosomal liver morbidity was detected in 35.1, 1.3 and 0.2 individuals respectively. Generally, ultrasonographically-detected pathological changes increased with age, but correlated with intensity of infection only in age group 20-59 years. Comparing individuals with and without S. mansoni infections in an endemic and a non-endemic community indicated no significant difference between the former and the latter in either case. In conclusion: ultrasonography had a limited value in estimating schistosomal liver morbidity in our population-based study where early grades of liver morbidly were prevalent. The criteria of diagnosing grade I portal fibrosis need to be revised as well as the staging system proposed by the Cairo Meeting on ultrasonography in schistosomiasis.

Suivi de l'adhésion thérapeutique des patients hypertendus ou dyslipi- démiques par les cercles de qualité médecins-pharmaciens [Monitoring drug adherence for hypertensive and dyslipidemic patients in networks of community-based pharmacists and physicians].

Patient adherence is often poor for hypertension and dyslipidaemia. A monitoring of drug adherence might improve these risk factors control, but little is known in ambulatory care. We conducted a randomised controlled study in networks of community-based pharmacists and physicians in the canton of Fribourg to examine whether monitoring drug adherence with an electronic monitor (MEMS) would improve risk factor control among treated, but uncontrolled hypertensive and dyslipidemic patients. The results indicate that MEMS achieve a better blood pressure control and lipid profile, although its implementation requires considerable resources. The study also shows the value of collaboration between physicians and pharmacists in the field of patient adherence to improve ambulatory care of patients with cardiovascular risk factors.