Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Numbered-up gas-liquid micro/milli channels reactor with modular flow distributor

Gas-liquid processing in microreactors remains mostly restricted to the laboratory scale due to the complexity and expenditure needed for an adequate numbering-up with a uniform flow distribution. Here, the numbering-up is presented for multi-phase (gas-liquid) flow in microreactor suitable for a production capacity of kg/h. Based on the barrier channels concept, the barrier-based micro/milli reactor (BMMR) is designed and fabricated to deliver flow non-uniformity of less than 10%. The BMMR consists of eight parallel channels all operated in the Taylor flow regime and with a liquid flow rate up to 150. mL/min. The quality of the flow distribution is reported by studying two aspects. The first aspect is the influence of different viscosities, surface tensions and flow rates. The second aspect is the influence of modularity by testing three different reaction channels type: (1) square channels fabricated in a stainless steel plate, (2) square channels fabricated in a glass plate, and (3) circular channels (capillaries) made of stainless steel. Additionally, the BMMR is compared to that of a single channel regard the slug and bubble lengths and bubble generation frequency. The results pave the ground for bringing multi-phase flow in microreactor one step closer for large scale production via numbering-up. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Interaction of combined chloride and sulfate ingression in concrete

Chloride is the most severe form of deterioration experienced by concrete and one of the principal sources of chlorides is sea water. However, the presence of sulfates in seawater will influence the movement of chloride ions and vice versa. This interaction is not well understood and current codes of practice provide no guidelines for such dual exposure.
An investigation to monitor combined effect of the ingress of chlorides and sulfates during a realistic 12 month wetting and drying exposure regime to simulate conditions in which multiple mode transport mechanisms are active was conducted on a variety of binders (PC, PFA and GGBS). Penetration was evaluated using water and acid soluble chloride profiles and sulfate profiles.
It was found that the nature of the exposure provided multiple modes of transport within the concrete, thus creating a complex pattern of distribution of ions. The presence of sulfates decreased the penetration of chlorides in the PC system at all ages relative to a chloride only control. The matrices containing PFA and GGBS also showed an initial decrease in chloride penetration. However, after six months the presence of sulfates then increased chloride penetration.

Development and assessment of a robust optimization metric for WAMPAC modeling

A PMU based WAMS is to be placed on a weakly coupled section of distribution grid, with high levels of distributed generation. In anticipation of PMU data a Siemens PSS/E model of the electrical environment has been used to return similar data to that expected from the WAMS. This data is then used to create a metric that reflects optimization, control and protection in the region. System states are iterated through with the most desirable one returning the lowest optimization metric, this state is assessed against the one returned by PSS/E under normal circumstances. This paper investigates the circumstances that trigger SPS in the region, through varying generation between 0 and 110% and compromising the network through line loss under summer minimum and winter maximum conditions. It is found that the optimized state can generally tolerate an additional 2 MW of generation (3% of total) before encroaching the same thresholds and in one instance moves the triggering to 100% of generation output.

Design of a radio frequency heated isothermal micro-trickle bed reactor

A near-isothermal micro-trickle bed reactor operated under radio frequency heating was developed. The reactor bed was packed with nickel ferrite micro-particles of 110. μm diameter, generating heat by the application of RF field at 180. kHz. Hydrodynamics in a co-current configuration was analysed and heat transfer rates were determined at temperature ranging from 55 to 100. °C. A multi-zone reactor bed of several heating and catalytic zones was proposed in order to achieve near-isothermal operations. Exact positioning, number of the heating zones and length of the heating zones composed of a mixture of nickel ferrite and a catalyst were determined by solving a one dimensional model of heat transfer by conduction and convection. The conductive losses contributed up to 30% in the total thermal losses from the reactor. Three heating zones were required to obtain an isothermal length of 50. mm with a temperature non-uniformity of 2. K. A good agreement between the modelling and experimental results was obtained for temperature profiles of the reactor. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Coexistence of congeneric native and invasive species: The case of the green algae Codium spp. in northwestern Spain

We examined the patterns of distribution and abundance, and reproductive traits (presence of gametophytes and size at time of reproduction) in the invasive Codium fragile ssp. fragile and the native C. tomentosum and C. vermilara on intertidal habitats of NW Spain at two dates. All three species coexist in the locations and habitats studied, although abundances were low. We found a greater proportion of C. fragile ssp. fragile towards the east of the Cantabrian coast and on upper levels on the shore, where conditions are more stressful. The proportion of thalli bearing gametangia in C. fragile ssp. fragile was greater than in the native species in all habitats. The presence of gametangia was size-dependent for all species, with the invasive species maturing at a smaller size, which combined with the previous features, might confer competitive advantages to this species over the native species. We also demonstrated that molecular analyses are necessary for the correct identification of C. fragile subspecies.

Magnetic mirror cavities as terahertz radiation sources and a means of quantifying radiation friction

We propose a radiation source based on a magnetic mirror cavity. Relativistic electrons are simulated entering the cavity and their trajectories and resulting emission spectra are calculated. The uniformity of the particle orbits is found to result in a frequency comb in terahertz range, the precise energies of which are tunable by varying the electron's gamma-factor. For very high energy particles, radiation friction causes the spectral harmonics to broaden and we suggest this as a possible way to verify competing classical equations of motion.

How subtle are the biases that shape the fidelity of the fossil record? A test using marine molluscs

Biases in preservation shape the fossil record, and therefore impact on our reconstructions of past environments and biodiversity. Given the intensive recent research in the general fields of taphonomy and exceptional preservation, surprisingly, fundamental questions remain unanswered about species-level variation in skeletal preservation potential at low taxonomic levels (e.g. between genera from the same family, or between taxa from related families) across myriad groups with multi-element skeletons. Polyplacophoran molluscs (chitons sensu lato) are known from the late Cambrian to Recent, and possess a distinctive articulated scleritome consisting of eight overlapping calcareous valves. The apparent uniformity of living chitons presents an ideal model to test the potential for taphonomic biases at the alpha-taxon level. The vast majority of fossil chitons are preserved as single valves; few exhibit body preservation or even an articulated shell series. An experimental taphonomic programme was conducted using the Recent polyplacophorans Lepidochitona cinerea and Tonicella marmorea (suborder Chitonina) and Acanthochitona crinita (Acanthochitonina). Experiments in a rock tumbler on disarticulated valves found differential resistance to abrasion between taxa; in one experiment 53.8-61.5% of Lepidochitona valves were recovered but 92% of those from Tonicella and 100% of elements from Acanthochitona. Chiton valves and even partly decayed carcasses are more resistant to transportation than their limited fossil record implies. Different species of living chitons have distinctly different preservation potential. This, problematically, does not correlate with obvious differences in gross valve morphology; some, but not all, of the differences correlate with phylogeny. Decay alone is sufficient to exacerbate differences in preservation potential of multi-element skeletons; some, but not all, of the variation that results is due to specimen size and the fidelity of the fossil record will thus vary intra-specifically (e.g. between ontogenetic stages) as well as inter-specifically. 

Validation of non‑stationary precipitation series for site‑specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Pharmacokinetics of melatonin in preterm infants

Aims: Preterm infants are deprived of the normal intra-uterine exposure to maternal melatonin and may benefit from replacement therapy. We conducted a pharmacokinetic study to guide potential therapeutic trials. Methods: Melatonin was administered to 18 preterm infants in doses ranging from 0.04-0.6μgkg^-1 over 0.5-6h. Pharmacokinetic profiles were analyzed individually and by population methods. Results: Baseline melatonin was largely undetectable. Infants receiving melatonin at 0.1μgkg^-1h^-1 for 2h showed a median half-life of 15.82h and median maximum plasma concentration of 203.3pgml^-1. On population pharmacokinetics, clearance was 0.045lh^-1, volume of distribution 1.098l and elimination half-life 16.91h with gender (P = 0.047) and race (P < 0.0001) as significant covariates. Conclusions: A 2h infusion of 0.1μgkg^-1h^-1 increased blood melatonin from undetectable to approximately peak adult concentrations. Slow clearance makes replacement of a typical maternal circadian rhythm problematic. The pharmacokinetic profile of melatonin in preterm infants differs from that of adults so dosage of melatonin for preterm infants cannot be extrapolated from adult studies. Data from this study can be used to guide therapeutic clinical trials of melatonin in preterm infants. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

Investigation of the temperature homogeneity of die melt flows in polymer extrusion

Polymer extrusion is fundamental to the processing of polymeric materials and melt flow temperature homogeneity is a major factor which influences product quality. Undesirable thermal conditions can cause problems such as melt degradation, dimensional instability, weaknesses in mechanical/optical/geometrical properties, and so forth. It has been revealed that melt temperature varies with time and with radial position across the die. However, the majority of polymer processes use only single-point techniques whose thermal measurements are limited to the single point at which they are fixed. Therefore, it is impossible for such techniques to determine thermal homogeneity across the melt flow. In this work, an extensive investigation was carried out into melt flow thermal behavior of the output of a single extruder with different polymers and screw geometries over a wide range of processing conditions. Melt temperature profiles of the process output were observed using a thermocouple mesh placed in the flow and results confirmed that the melt flow thermal behavior is different at different radial positions. The uniformity of temperature across the melt flow deteriorated considerably with increase in screw rotational speed while it was also shown to be dependent on process settings, screw geometry, and material properties. Moreover, it appears that the effects of the material, machine, and process settings on the quantity and quality of the process output are heavily coupled with each other and this may cause the process to be difficult to predict and variable in nature

A rising e-channel tide lifts all boats? the impact of manufacturer multi-channel encroachment on traditional selling and leasing

Organizing and managing channels of distribution is an important marketing task. Due to the emergence of electronic commerce on the Internet, e-channel distribution systems have been adopted by many manufacturers. However, academic and anecdotal evidence both point to the pressures arising from this new e-channel manufacturing environment. Questions marks therefore remain on how the addition of this e-channel affects the traditional marketing strategies of leasing and selling. We set up several two-period dual-channel models in which a manufacturer sells a durable product through both a manufacturer-owned e-channel and an independent reseller (leaser) who adopts selling (leasing) to consumers. Our main results indicate that, direct selling cost aside, product durability plays an important role in shaping the strategies of all members. With either marketing strategy, the additional expansion of an e-channel territory may secure Pareto gains, in which all members benefit.

Measuring the shape of degree distributions

Degree distribution is a fundamental property of networks. While mean degree provides a standard measure of scale, there are several commonly used shape measures. Widespread use of a single shape measure would enable comparisons between networks and facilitate investigations about the relationship between degree distribution properties and other network features. This paper describes five candidate measures of heterogeneity and recommends the Gini coefficient. It has theoretical advantages over many of the previously proposed measures, is meaningful for the broad range of distribution shapes seen in different types of networks, and has several accessible interpretations. While this paper focusses on degree, the distribution of other node based network properties could also be described with Gini coefficients.

Development of high-resolution gamma cameras based on silicon photosensors

The development of a compact gamma camera with high spatial resolution is of great interest in Nuclear Medicine as a means to increase the sensitivity of scintigraphy exams and thus allow the early detection of small tumours. Following the introduction of the wavelength-shifting fibre (WSF) gamma camera by Soares et al. and evolution of photodiodes into highly sensitive silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs), this thesis explores the development of a WSF gamma camera using SiPMs to obtain the position information of scintillation events in a continuous CsI(Na) crystal. The design is highly flexible, allowing the coverage of different areas and the development of compact cameras, with very small dead areas at the edges. After initial studies which confirmed the feasibility of applying SiPMs, a prototype with 5 5 cm2 was assembled and tested at room temperature, in an active field-of-view of 10 10 mm2. Calibration and characterisation of intrinsic properties of this prototype were done using 57Co, while extrinsic measurements were performed using a high-resolution parallel-hole collimator and 99mTc. In addition, a small mouse injected with a radiopharmaceutical was imaged with the developed prototype. Results confirm the great potential of SiPMs when applied in a WSF gamma camera, achieving spatial resolution performance superior to the traditional Anger camera. Furthermore, performance can be improved by an optimisation of experimental conditions, in order to minimise and control the undesirable effects of thermal noise and non-uniformity of response of multiple SiPMs. The development and partial characterisation of a larger SiPM WSF gamma camera with 10 10 cm2 for clinical application are also presented.

Decapod crustacean larvae dynamics in the west continental coast of Portugal: the region adjacent to Aveiro coastal lagoon as model

Tese de dout., Ciências do Mar, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Univ. do Algarve, 2010