WeIfare costs of inflation the case for interest-bearing money and empiricaI Estimates for Brazil

We provide in this paper a closed fonn for the Welfare Cost of Inflation which we prove to be closer than Bailey's expression to the correct solution of the corresponding non-separable differential equation. Next, we extend this approach to an economy with interest-bearing money, once again presenting a better appoximation than the one given by Bailey's approach. Finally, empirical estimates for Brazil are presented.

Business cycles in emerging economies : the role of interest rates

This paper documents the empirical relation between the interest rates that emerging economies face in international capital markets and their business cycles. It shows that the patterns observed in the data can be interpreted as the equilibrium of a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy, in which (i) firms have to pay for a fraction of the input bill before production takes place, and (ii) preferences generate a labor supply that is independent of the interest rate. In our sample, interest rates are strongly countercyclical, strongly positively correlated with net exports, and they lead the cycle. Output is very volatile and consumption is more volatile than output. The sample includes data for Argentina during 1983-2000 and for four other large emerging economies, Brazil, Mexico, Korea, and Philippines, during 1994-2000. The model is calibrated to Argentina’s economy for the period 1983-1999. When the model is fed with actual US interest rates and the actual default spreads of Argentine sovereign interest rates, interest rates alone can explain forty percent of output fluctuations. When simulated technology shocks are added to the model, it can account for the main empirical regularities of Argentina’s economy during the period. A 1% increase in country risk causes a contemporaneous fall in output of 0.5 ’subsequent recovery. An increase in US rates causes output to fall by the same on impact and by almost 2% two years after the shock. The asymetry in the effect of shocks to US rates and country risk is due to the fact that US interest rates are more persistent than country risk and that there is a significant spillover effect from US interest rates to country risk.

Comparing equilibrium real interest rates : different approaches to measure Brazilian rates

Despite the difficulties involved in the precise determination of equilibrium real interest rates, it seems clear that nominal interest rates has been higher in Brazil than in similar emerging economies. This paper aims to shed light on the possible reasons for this feature of the Brazilian economy. We extend Miranda and Muinhos (2003) one-country study to a sample of 20 countries, using many methods to compare measures of the real interest: (i) extracting equilibrium interest rates from IS curves; (ii) extracting steady state interest rates from marginal product of capital; (iii) capturing relevant variables and the fixed effects having real interest rates as dependent variable in a panel for emerging countries; and (iv) extracting inflation expectation from the spread between fixed rate and inflation-indexed treasure notes.

A comparison of test of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We evaluate the forecasting performance of a number of systems models of US shortand long-term interest rates. Non-linearities, induding asymmetries in the adjustment to equilibrium, are shown to result in more accurate short horizon forecasts. We find that both long and short rates respond to disequilibria in the spread in certain circumstances, which would not be evident from linear representations or from single-equation analyses of the short-term interest rate.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Differences in the perception of interest representation: a comparision of Brasília and Brussels lobbying activity

The research topic of this paper is focused on the analysis of how trade associations perceive lobbying in Brussels and in Brasília. The analysis will be centered on business associations located in Brasília and Brussels as the two core centers of decision-making and as an attraction for the lobbying practice. The underlying principles behind the comparison between Brussels and Brasilia are two. Firstof all because the European Union and Brazil have maintained diplomatic relations since 1960. Through these relations they have built up close historical, cultural, economic and political ties. Their bilateral political relations culminated in 2007 with the establishment of a Strategic Partnership (EEAS website,n.d.). Over the years, Brazil has become a key interlocutor for the EU and it is the most important market for the EU in Latin America (European Commission, 2007). Taking into account the relations between EU and Brazil, this research could contribute to the reciprocal knowledge about the perception of lobby in the respective systems and the importance of the non-market strategy when conducting business. Second both EU and Brazilian systems have a multi-level governance structure: 28 Member States in the EU and 26 Member States in Brazil; in both systems there are three main institutions targeted by lobbying practice. The objective is to compare how differences in the institutional environments affect the perception and practice of lobbying, where institutions are defined as ‘‘regulative, normative, and cognitive structures and activities that provide stability and meaning to social behavior’’ (Peng et al., 2009). Brussels, the self-proclaimed "Capital of Europe”, is the headquarters of the European Union and has one of the highest concentrations of political power in the world. Four of the seven Institutions of the European Union are based in Brussels: the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council and the European Commission (EU website, n.d.). As the power of the EU institutions has grown, Brussels has become a magnet for lobbyists, with the latest estimates ranging from between 15,000 and 30,000 professionals representing companies, industry sectors, farmers, civil society groups, unions etc. (Burson Marsteller, 2013). Brasília is the capital of Brazil and the seat of government of the Federal District and the three branches of the federal government of Brazilian legislative, executive and judiciary. The 4 city also hosts 124 foreign embassies. The presence of the formal representations of companies and trade associations in Brasília is very limited, but the governmental interests remain there and the professionals dealing with government affairs commute there. In the European Union, Brussels has established a Transparency Register that allows the interactions between the European institutions and citizen’s associations, NGOs, businesses, trade and professional organizations, trade unions and think tanks. The register provides citizens with a direct and single access to information about who is engaged in This process is important for the quality of democracy, and for its capacity to deliver adequate policies, matching activities aimed at influencing the EU decision-making process, which interests are being pursued and what level of resources are invested in these activities (Celgene, n.d). It offers a single code of conduct, binding all organizations and self-employed individuals who accept to “play by the rules” in full respect of ethical principles (EC website, n.d). A complaints and sanctions mechanism ensures the enforcement of the rules and addresses suspected breaches of the code. In Brazil, there is no specific legislation regulating lobbying. The National Congress is currently discussing dozens of bills that address regulation of lobbying and the action of interest groups (De Aragão, 2012), but none of them has been enacted for the moment. This work will focus on class lobbying (Oliveira, 2004), which refers to the performance of the federation of national labour or industrial unions, like CNI (National Industry Confederation) in Brazil and the European Banking Federation (EBF) in Brussels. Their performance aims to influence the Executive and Legislative branches in order to defend the interests of their affiliates. When representing unions and federations, class entities cover a wide range of different and, more often than not, conflicting interests. That is why they are limited to defending the consensual and majority interest of their affiliates (Oliveira, 2004). The basic assumption of this work is that institutions matter (Peng et al, 2009) and that the trade associations and their affiliates, when doing business, have to take into account the institutional and regulatory framework where they do business.

Show me the money and I will bring you the head: evaluation of the effects of self-interest and anger on whistleblowing

Though many of those who decided to report wrongdoings in their organizations were able to tell their stories (e.g. Bamford, 2014, Armenakis 2004), it is fair to say that there is still much left to uncover. The paper aims to contribute to the literature in three ways. First, it provides preliminary evidence that the wrongdoing linked with individual financial loss leads to higher whistleblowing rate. Secondly, it shows how the experience of anger is related to the higher likelihood to report the wrongdoer but only if the wrongful act is perceived as a cause of one’s financial loss. Finally, the paper establishes first steps for the future development of an experimental procedure that would enable to predict, and measure whistleblowing behavior in the lab environment.

Welfare cost of inflation considering adoption decisions and interest-bearing deposits

Attanasio et al. (JPE, 2002) have used microeconomic data on households to provide new estimates of the welfare costs of infiation using Bailey's unidimensional welfare measure as a basis for their calculations. Such a measure does not properly take into consideration lhe fact that the majority of households in their sample (58.7 percent) holds not only bank deposits and currency, but also a second type of interest-bearing assct. This work devises alternative formulas which account for the existence of bank deposits and a sccond interest-bearing asset in the economy, as well as for adoption decisions regarding alternative financiai technologies.

Development of a novel microextraction by packed sorbent-based approach followed by ultrahigh pressure liquid chromatography as a powerful technique for quantification phenolic constituents of biological interest in wines

A novel analytical approach, based on a miniaturized extraction technique, the microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS), followed by ultrahigh pressure liquid chromatography (UHPLC) separation combined with a photodiode array (PDA) detection, has been developed and validated for the quantitative determination of sixteen biologically active phenolic constituents of wine. In addition to performing routine experiments to establish the validity of the assay to internationally accepted criteria (linearity, sensitivity, selectivity, precision, accuracy), experiments are included to assess the effect of the important experimental parameters on the MEPS performance such as the type of sorbent material (C2, C8, C18, SIL, and M1), number of extraction cycles (extract-discard), elution volume, sample volume, and ethanol content, were studied. The optimal conditions of MEPS extraction were obtained using C8 sorbent and small sample volumes (250 μL) in five extraction cycle and in a short time period (about 5 min for the entire sample preparation step). The wine bioactive phenolics were eluted by 250 μL of the mixture containing 95% methanol and 5% water, and the separation was carried out on a HSS T3 analytical column (100 mm × 2.1 mm, 1.8 μm particle size) using a binary mobile phase composed of aqueous 0.1% formic acid (eluent A) and methanol (eluent B) in the gradient elution mode (10 min of total analysis). The method gave satisfactory results in terms of linearity with r2-values > 0.9986 within the established concentration range. The LOD varied from 85 ng mL−1 (ferulic acid) to 0.32 μg mL−1 ((+)-catechin), whereas the LOQ values from 0.028 μg mL−1 (ferulic acid) to 1.08 μg mL−1 ((+)-catechin). Typical recoveries ranged between 81.1 and 99.6% for red wines and between 77.1 and 99.3% for white wines, with relative standard deviations (RSD) no larger than 10%. The extraction yields of the MEPSC8/UHPLC–PDA methodology were found between 78.1 (syringic acid) and 99.6% (o-coumaric acid) for red wines and between 76.2 and 99.1% for white wines. The inter-day precision, expressed as the relative standard deviation (RSD%), varied between 0.2% (p-coumaric and o-coumaric acids) and 7.5% (gentisic acid) while the intra-day precision between 0.2% (o-coumaric and cinnamic acids) and 4.7% (gallic acid and (−)-epicatechin). On the basis of analytical validation, it is shown that the MEPSC8/UHPLC–PDA methodology proves to be an improved, reliable, and ultra-fast approach for wine bioactive phenolics analysis, because of its capability for determining simultaneously in a single chromatographic run several bioactive metabolites with high sensitivity, selectivity and resolving power within only 10 min. Preliminary studies have been carried out on 34 real whole wine samples, in order to assess the performance of the described procedure. The new approach offers decreased sample preparation and analysis time, and moreover is cheaper, more environmentally friendly and easier to perform as compared to traditional methodologies.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

Vanadium and its complexes: The renewed interest in its biochemistry

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bounded solutions for nonconserving-parity pseudoscalar potentials

The Dirac equation is analyzed for nonconserving-parity pseudoscalar radial potentials in 3+1 dimensions. It is shown that despite the nonconservation of parity this general problem can be reduced to a Sturm-Liouville problem of nonrelativistic fermions in spherically symmetric effective potentials. The searching for bounded solutions is done for the power-law and Yukawa potentials. The use of the methodology of effective potentials allow us to conclude that the existence of bound-state solutions depends whether the potential leads to a definite effective potential-well structure or to an effective potential less singular than -1/4r(2).

Anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking without R-parity

We analyze the low energy features of a supersymmetric standard model where the anomaly-induced contributions to the soft parameters are dominant in a scenario with bilinear R-parity violation. This class of models leads to mixings between the standard model particles and supersymmetric ones which chance the low energy phenomenology and searches for supersymmetry. In addition, R-parity violation interactions give rise to small neutrino masses which we show to be consistent with the present observations. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Probing bilinear R-parity violating supergravity at the LHC

We study the collider phenomenology of bilinear R-parity violating supergravity, the simplest effective model for supersymmetric neutrino masses accounting for the current neutrino oscillation data. At the CERN Large Hadron Collider the center-of-mass energy will be high enough to probe directly these models through the search for the superpartners of the Standard Model (SM) particles. We analyze the impact of R-parity violation on the canonical supersymmetry searches-that is, we examine how the decay of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) via bilinear R-parity violating interactions degrades the average expected missing momentum of the reactions and show how this diminishes the reach in the usual channels for supersymmetry searches. However, the R-parity violating interactions lead to an enhancement of the final states containing isolated same-sign di-leptons and trileptons, compensating the reach loss in the fully inclusive channel. We show how the searches for displaced vertices associated to LSP decay substantially increase the coverage in supergravity parameter space, giving the corresponding reaches for two reference luminosities of 10 and 100 fb(-1) and compare with those of the R-parity conserving minimal supergravity model.