Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Development of a rapid bioassessment method and index of biotic integrity for estuaries located along the northwest Gulf of Mexico

Recently it has been proposed that the evaluation of effects of pollutants on aquatic organisms can provide an early warning system of potential environmental and human health risks (NRC 1991). Unfortunately there are few methods available to aquatic biologists to conduct assessments of the effects of pollutants on aquatic animal community health. The primary goal of this research was to develop and evaluate the feasibility of such a method. Specifically, the primary objective of this study was to develop a prototype rapid bioassessment technique similar to the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) for the upper Texas and Northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal tributaries. The IBI consists of a series of "metrics" which describes specific attributes of the aquatic community. Each of these metrics are given a score which is then subtotaled to derive a total assessment of the "health" of the aquatic community. This IBI procedure may provide an additional assessment tool for professionals in water quality management.^ The experimental design consisted primarily of compiling previously collected data from monitoring conducted by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) at five bayous classified according to potential for anthropogenic impact and salinity regime. Standardized hydrological, chemical, and biological monitoring had been conducted in each of these watersheds. The identification and evaluation of candidate metrics for inclusion in the estuarine IBI was conducted through the use of correlation analysis, cluster analysis, stepwise and normal discriminant analysis, and evaluation of cumulative distribution frequencies. Scores of each included metric were determined based on exceedances of specific percentiles. Individual scores were summed and a total IBI score and rank for the community computed.^ Results of these analyses yielded the proposed metrics and rankings listed in this report. Based on the results of this study, incorporation of an estuarine IBI method as a water quality assessment tool is warranted. Adopted metrics were correlated to seasonal trends and less so to salinity gradients observed during the study (0-25 ppt). Further refinement of this method is needed using a larger more inclusive data set which includes additional habitat types, salinity ranges, and temporal variation. ^

Restrained and external-emotional eating patterns in young overweight children-results of the ulm birth cohort study

Childhood obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in Western countries. Abnormal eating behavior is thought to be a developmental trajectory to obesity. The Eating Pattern Inventory for Children (EPI-C) has not been used for children as young as eight years, and possible associations with body weight have not yet been established. Five hundred and twenty-one children of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS; age eight) filled out the EPI-C and BMI was assessed. Adequacy of the scales was tested with confirmatory factor analysis and a MANOVA and cluster analysis established associations between eating patterns and BMI. The factor structure of the EPI-C was confirmed (GFI = .968) and abnormal eating behavior was associated with overweight (χ2(8) = 79.29, p<.001). The EPI-C is a valid assessment tool in this young age group. Overweight children consciously restrain their eating.

Multimorbidity and quality of preventive care in Swiss university primary care cohorts.

BACKGROUND Caring for patients with multimorbidity is common for generalists, although such patients are often excluded from clinical trials, and thus such trials lack of generalizability. Data on the association between multimorbidity and preventive care are limited. We aimed to assess whether comorbidity number, severity and type were associated with preventive care among patients receiving care in Swiss University primary care settings. METHODS We examined a retrospective cohort composed of a random sample of 1,002 patients aged 50-80 years attending four Swiss university primary care settings. Multimorbidity was defined according to the literature and the Charlson index. We assessed the quality of preventive care and cardiovascular preventive care with RAND's Quality Assessment Tool indicators. Aggregate scores of quality of provided care were calculated by taking into account the number of eligible patients for each indicator. RESULTS Participants (mean age 63.5 years, 44% women) had a mean of 2.6 (SD 1.9) comorbidities and 67.5% had 2 or more comorbidities. The mean Charlson index was 1.8 (SD 1.9). Overall, participants received 69% of recommended preventive care and 84% of cardiovascular preventive care. Quality of care was not associated with higher numbers of comorbidities, both for preventive care and for cardiovascular preventive care. Results were similar in analyses using the Charlson index and after adjusting for age, gender, occupation, center and number of visits. Some patients may receive less preventive care including those with dementia (47%) and those with schizophrenia (35%). CONCLUSIONS In Swiss university primary care settings, two thirds of patients had 2 or more comorbidities. The receipt of preventive and cardiovascular preventive care was not affected by comorbidity count or severity, although patients with certain comorbidities may receive lower levels of preventive care.

Comparing CFSR and conventional weather data for discharge and soil loss modelling with SWAT in small catchments in the Ethiopian Highlands

Accurate rainfall data are the key input parameter for modelling river discharge and soil loss. Remote areas of Ethiopia often lack adequate precipitation data and where these data are available, there might be substantial temporal or spatial gaps. To counter this challenge, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) readily provides weather data for any geographic location on earth between 1979 and 2014. This study assesses the applicability of CFSR weather data to three watersheds in the Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia. To this end, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up to simulate discharge and soil loss, using CFSR and conventional weather data, in three small-scale watersheds ranging from 112 to 477 ha. Calibrated simulation results were compared to observed river discharge and observed soil loss over a period of 32 years. The conventional weather data resulted in very good discharge outputs for all three watersheds, while the CFSR weather data resulted in unsatisfactory discharge outputs for all of the three gauging stations. Soil loss simulation with conventional weather inputs yielded satisfactory outputs for two of three watersheds, while the CFSR weather input resulted in three unsatisfactory results. Overall, the simulations with the conventional data resulted in far better results for discharge and soil loss than simulations with CFSR data. The simulations with CFSR data were unable to adequately represent the specific regional climate for the three watersheds, performing even worse in climatic areas with two rainy seasons. Hence, CFSR data should not be used lightly in remote areas with no conventional weather data where no prior analysis is possible.

A practice-based culminating experience with Texas Children's Hospital: A hospital's journey to baby-friendly status

Breastfeeding and the use of human milk are widely accepted as the most complete form of nutrition for infants. Breastfeeding is shown to be associated with many positive health outcomes for both infants and mothers. Healthy People 2000 goals to increase breastfeeding rates in the early postpartum period to 75% fell short, with only 64% of mothers meeting this objective. Lack of support from healthcare providers, and unsupportive hospital policies and practices are noted as barriers to the initiation and duration of breastfeeding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate implementation of the BFHI Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding at Texas Children's Hospital. ^ The Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative (BFHI) was developed in 1991 by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) to ensure that healthcare facilities offering maternity services adhere to the Ten Steps of Successful Breastfeeding and the International Code of Marketing of Breast-Milk Substitutes, and create legislation to protect the rights of breastfeeding women. The instrument used in this study was the BFHI 100 Assessment Tool created by Dr. Laura Haiek, Director of Public Health in Monteregie, Quebec, and her staff at Health and Social Services Agency of Quebec. The BFHI 100 tool utilizes 100 different indicators of compliance with BFHI through questionnaires administered to staff and administrators, pregnant and postpartum mothers, and an observer. ^ The study concluded that although there is much room for improvement in educating breastfeeding mothers, overall, the mothers interviewed were satisfied with their level of care in regards to breastfeeding support. Areas of improvement include staff training, as some nursing staff admitted to relying on the lactation consultants to provide most of the breastfeeding education for mothers. Only a small percentage of mothers interviewed reported that their baby “roomed-in” on average of 22 hours per day during their hospital stay. Staff encouragement of the rooming-in practice will help to increase the proportion of mothers who allow their babies to room-in. The current breastfeeding policy will also need to be revised and strengthened to be compliant with the Ten Steps. Ideally, Baby-Friendly practices will become the norm after staff are trained and policy revisions are made. Staff training and acceptance of breastfeeding as optimal nutrition for infants are the most critical factors that will ultimately drive change for the organization. ^

Systematic review of genetic risk score in coronary heart disease and other diseases

In order to better take advantage of the abundant results from large-scale genomic association studies, investigators are turning to a genetic risk score (GRS) method in order to combine the information from common modest-effect risk alleles into an efficient risk assessment statistic. The statistical properties of these GRSs are poorly understood. As a first step toward a better understanding of GRSs, a systematic analysis of recent investigations using a GRS was undertaken. GRS studies were searched in the areas of coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, and other common diseases using bibliographic databases and by hand-searching reference lists and journals. Twenty-one independent case-control studies, cohort studies, and simulation studies (12 in CHD, 9 in other diseases) were identified. The underlying statistical assumptions of the GRS using the experience of the Framingham risk score were investigated. Improvements in the construction of a GRS guided by the concept of composite indicators are discussed. The GRS will be a promising risk assessment tool to improve prediction and diagnosis of common diseases.^

THE ALCOHOL TREATMENT PROFILE SYSTEM: ITS DEVELOPMENT AND AN EVALUATION OF ITS CAPABILITIES

The development of the Alcohol Treatment Profile System (ATPS) was described and an evaluation of its perceived value by various States was undertaken, The ATPS is a treatment needs assessment tool based on the unification of several large national epidemiologic and treatment data sets. It was developed by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) and responsibility for its creation was given to the NIAAA's Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System (AEDS). The ATPS merges county-level measures of alcohol problem prevalence (the specially constructed AEDS Alcohol Problem Indicators), indicating "need" for treatment, and treatment utilization measures (the National Drug and Alcohol Treatment Utilization Survey), indicating treatment "demand." The capabilities of the ATPS in the unique planning and policy-making settings of several States were evaluated.^

Baseline evaluation of environmental physical activity and nutrition support of Texas Medical Center hospital worksites

Background: Obesity is a major health problem in the United States that has reached epidemic proportions. With most U.S adults spending the majority of their waking hours at work, the influence of the workplace environment on obesity is gaining in importance. Recent research implicates worksites as providing an 'obesogenic' environment as they encourage overeating and reduce the opportunity for physical activity. Objective: The aim of this study is to describe the nutrition and physical activity environment of Texas Medical Center (TMC) hospitals participating in the Shape Up Houston evaluation study to develop a scoring system to quantify the environmental data collected using the Environmental Assessment Tool (EAT) survey and to assess the inter-observer reliability of using the EAT survey. Methods: A survey instrument that was adapted from the Environmental Assessment Tool (EAT) developed by Dejoy DM et al in 2008 to measure the hospital environmental support for nutrition and physical activity was used for this study. The inter-observer reliability of using the EAT survey was measured and total percent agreement scores were computed. Most responses on the EAT survey are dichotomous (Yes and No) and these responses were coded with a '0' for a 'no' response and a '1' for a 'yes' response. A summative scoring system was developed to quantify these responses. Each hospital was given a score for each scale and subscale on the EAT survey in addition to a total score. All analyses were conducted using Stata 11 software. Results: High inter-observer reliability is observed using EAT. The percentage agreement scores ranged from 94.4%–100%. Only 2 of the 5 hospitals had a fitness facility onsite and scores for exercise programs and outdoor facilities available for hospital employees ranged from 0–62% and 0–37.5%, respectively. The healthy eating percentage for hospital cafeterias range from 42%–92% across the different hospitals while the healthy vending scores were 0%–40%. The total TMC 'healthy hospital' score was 49%. Conclusion: The EAT survey is a reliable instrument for measuring the physical activity and nutrition support environment of hospital worksites. The study results showed a large variability among the TMC hospitals in the existing physical activity and nutrition support environment. This study proposes cost effective policy changes that can increase environmental support to healthy eating and active living among TMC hospital employees.^

Signals and Systems Students trainer.

Higher education students demand fast feedback about their assignments and the opportunity to repeat them in case they do in a wrong way. Here a computer based trainer for Signals and Systems students is presented. An application, that automatically generates and assesses thousands of numerically different versions of several Signals and Systems problems have been developed. This applet guides the students to find the solution and automatically assesses and grades the students proposed solution. The students can use the application to practice in solving several types of Signals and Systems basic problems. After selecting the problem type, the student introduces a seed and the application generates a numerical version of the selected problem. Then the application presents a sequence of questions that the students must solve and the application automatically assess their answers. After solving a given problem, the students can repeat the same numerical variation of the problem by introducing the same seed to the application. In this way, they can review their solution with the help of the hints given by the application for wrong solutions. This application can also be used as an automatic assessment tool by the instructor. When the assessment is made in a controlled environment (examination classroom or laboratory) the instructor can use the same seed for all students. Otherwise, different seeds can be assigned to different students and in this way they solve different numerical variation of the proposed problem, so cheating becomes an arduous task. Given a problem type, the mathematical or conceptual difficulty of the problem can vary depending on the numerical values of the parameters of the problem. The application permits to easily select groups of seeds that yield to numerical variations with similar mathematical or conceptual difficulty. This represents an advantage over a randomised task assignment where students are asked to solve tasks with different difficulty.

Numerical and experimental study of the parametric rolling of a fisihing vessel in regular head waves

The dynamic behaviour of a fishing vessel in waves is studied in order to reveal its parametric rolling characteristics. This paper presents experimental and numerical results in longitudinal regular waves. The experimental results are compared against the results of a time-domain non-linear strip theory model of ship motions in six degrees-of-freedom. These results contribute to the validation of the parametric rolling prediction method, so that it can be used as an assessment tool to evaluate both the susceptibility and severity of occurrence of parametric rolling at the early design stage of these types of vessels.

AVALIAÇÃO INSTITUCIONAL NA EDUCAÇÃO BÁSICA: UMA ANÁLISE DA PRÁTICA DA EDUCAÇÃO ADVENTISTA

O tema desta dissertação é a Avaliação Institucional da Educação Básica. Para tal, faz-se a análise do processo de avaliação, com ênfase no instrumento utilizado pelas Escolas Adventistas de nível básico do estado de São Paulo, considerando que a educação adventista se tornou uma parte consistente dentro da estrutura da Igreja Adventista do Sétimo Dia. Procurou-se, neste trabalho, como objetivo geral, compreender como se configura a prática da avaliação institucional das escolas da Rede Adventista de Educação. O método da investigação incluiu análise bibliográfica dos principais teóricos da área de políticas públicas e do sistema privado bem como da avaliação institucional, seguido de exame documental do instrumento utilizado no processo de avaliação institucional. O estudo resgata a contextualização histórica do desenvolvimento da escola privada, destacando aspectos relevantes de sua relação com o Estado. Também apresenta brevemente a história da Igreja Adventista do Sétimo Dia (IASD) nos Estados Unidos (EUA) e no Brasil, de modo a situar o surgimento do sistema educacional adventista, bem como a sua filosofia de ensino, buscando conhecer as origens desse grupo religioso que há mais de um século atua no cenário educacional brasileiro. Em seguida, aborda aspectos da Avaliação Institucional. Finalmente, apresenta-se uma síntese do processo e uma descrição analítica do instrumento de avaliação institucional das escolas de nível básico da Educação Adventista. Na conclusão do trabalho, não se encontraram indícios de que o conceito adventista de avaliação educacional seja diferente do das abordagens tradicionais. Entretanto, na concepção adventista de avaliação, existe mais fortemente a preocupação de se manter um processo de avaliação contínuo e sistemático.

Método de Rorscharch em adultos: evidências psicométricas da Escola Francesa

O Método de Rorschach é internacionalmente utilizado e reconhecido como instrumento de avaliação psicológica em processos de investigação da personalidade. Para embasar seu adequado uso no contexto do Brasil, contínuos estudos sobre suas evidências psicométricas fazem-se necessários, sobretudo sobre seus indicadores de validade, precisão e referenciais normativos. Nesse contexto, este trabalho objetivou: a) verificar indicadores de precisão e validade do Rorschach (Escola Francesa ou de Paris), por meio da reavaliação de adultos não pacientes do estudo normativo de Pasian (1998), para checagem da estabilidade temporal (estrutural e funcional) das características de personalidade examinadas pelo método (ESTUDO 1); b) revisar e atualizar padrões normativos e atlas da Escola Francesa do Rorschach em adultos, avaliando-se eventuais especificidades de produção associadas ao sexo, à idade e à escolaridade (ESTUDO 2). No primeiro estudo foram reavaliados 88 adultos do estudo de Pasian (1998), com idade entre 34 a 69 anos, de ambos os sexos e de diferentes níveis de escolaridade (baixa, média e alta). No segundo estudo compôs-se nova amostra com 102 adultos, entre 18 e 65 anos, com sinais de desenvolvimento típico, distribuídos equitativamente em relação ao sexo e com diferentes graus de escolaridade (baixa, média e alta). Para elaboração dos dados normativos foram incluídos 66 adultos do Estudo 1, totalizando 168 casos nessa nova amostra (86 mulheres e 82 homens). Os participantes residiam no interior do Estado de São Paulo e foram avaliados, individualmente, por: a) instrumento de rastreamento de saúde mental (SRQ-20) - no estudo 1, utilizado para caracterização da amostra e no estudo 2 como critério de seleção dos participantes; b) instrumento de avaliação intelectual (Teste de Inteligência Não Verbal - INV, forma C - apenas no Estudo 2) para controle cognitivo da amostra; c) critério de classificação econômica Brasil (ABEP) e d) Método de Rorschach (Escola de Paris). Cada instrumento de avaliação psicológica foi aplicado, codificado e sistematizado conforme seus respectivos manuais técnicos. Especificamente o Método de Rorschach foi avaliado pelas diretrizes da Escola Francesa, sendo cada protocolo (de cada um dos dois estudos) examinado independentemente por dois avaliadores, chegando-se a uma classificação final dos casos. Calculou-se o índice de concordância entre examinadores pelo coeficiente Kappa para as quatro categorias de classificação das respostas do Rorschach (localização, determinante/qualidade formal, conteúdo e banalidades). Os resultados foram sistematizados inicialmente em termos descritivos (média, desvio-padrão, mediana, valor mínimo e máximo), realizando-se análises inferenciais específicas para as amostras de cada estudo em função de seus objetivos centrais. No Estudo 1, os achados relativos aos índices de correlação entre as duas avaliações dos 88 voluntários variaram entre 0,72 a -0,005, evidenciando estabilidade em um conjunto das características de personalidade dos adultos examinados após 15 anos, configurando evidências empíricas de precisão e de validade de método projetivo. Houve variáveis do Rorschach que não apresentaram resultados estáveis entre os dois momentos avaliativos (fórmulas vivenciais), sugerindo se tratarem de indicadores técnicos relativos ao funcionamento da personalidade, mais do que componentes estruturais. As análises do Estudo 2 apontaram reduzida influência dos fatores relacionados ao sexo, à escolaridade e à idade sobre as variáveis do Rorschach, não indicando a necessidade de normas específicas para grupos em termos desses fatores. Por fim, foi elaborado novo atlas de referência do Método de Rorschach (Escola de Paris) no contexto brasileiro, seguindo-se as diretrizes técnicocientíficas nacionais e internacionais da área. Os dados fortalecem a relevância dos estudos de natureza psicométrica para embasar adequadas análises interpretativas desse instrumento de avaliação psicológica (FAPESP e CAPES/PDSE).

Validação do protocolo de avaliação do frênulo da língua em bebês

Este estudo teve por objetivo validar o Protocolo de avaliação do frênulo da língua em bebês. Para isso, a partir do cálculo amostral, foi aplicado o protocolo em 100 bebês saudáveis, nascidos a termo, com 30 dias de vida, em amamentação exclusiva. O processo de validação consistiu da análise da validade de conteúdo, de critério e de construto, bem como da confiabilidade, sensibilidade, especificidade, valor preditivo positivo e negativo. A validade de conteúdo foi realizada por três examinadores, por meio da classificação de cada item quanto à clareza e posterior aplicação do Índice de Validação do Conteúdo. As avaliadoras sugeriram modificações no protocolo, por consenso, possibilitando obter a versão final. Para a validade de critério, comparou-se o Protocolo de avaliação do frênulo da língua em bebês com o instrumento Bristol Tongue Assessment Tool (BTAT). A validade de construto foi analisada a partir da comparação dos escores do protocolo aplicado nos bebês com 30 e 75 dias. As avaliações foram realizadas por duas fonoaudiólogas especialistas em Motricidade Orofacial (denominadas A1 e A2), devidamente treinadas e calibradas, por meio da análise das filmagens realizadas durante a aplicação do protocolo, para verificação da concordância entre examinadores, bem como definição dos valores de sensibilidade, especificidade e valores preditivos. Para a análise da concordância intra-avaliador foi realizado o teste/reteste de 20% da amostra pela A2. Quanto ao tratamento estatístico, para a análise de concordância intra e entre avaliadores, foram utilizados o Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse e o cálculo do erro do método. Para análise da validade de construto foram aplicados os testes de Wilcoxon e Mann-Whitney. O nível de significância adotado em todos os testes foi de 5%. Houve 100% de concordância na validação do conteúdo. A validade de critério apresentou correlações fortes dos itens correspondentes do Protocolo de avaliação do frênulo da língua em bebês e do instrumento BTAT, sendo o valor do coeficiente de correlação de Spearman igual a -0,997. Os resultados obtidos evidenciaram uma concordância muito boa intra e entre avaliadores, com valores baixos de erro casual e valores de p>0,05 (evidenciando que não há diferença entre a análise dos avaliadores) e Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse maior que 0,75; mostrando ainda, uma capacidade significativa do protocolo em mensurar as mudanças resultantes da frenotomia lingual, pela história clínica, avaliação anatomofuncional e avaliação da sucção não nutritiva e nutritiva (p<0,05). Quando comparados os resultados dos bebês com alteração do frênulo lingual (grupo experimental) e sem alteração (grupo controle), com 30 e 75 dias, houve diferença nos escores parciais e no escore total do exame clínico e do protocolo completo. Os índices de sensibilidade, especificidade e valores preditivos positivo e negativo foram 100%. A ocorrência das alterações do frênulo lingual nesse estudo foi de 21%. Concluiu-se, com este estudo, que o Protocolo de avaliação do frênulo da língua em bebês mostrou ser um instrumento válido e confiável de avaliação, assegurando acurácia em diagnosticar as alterações do frênulo lingual dentro dos parâmetros investigados, podendo ser aplicado por diferentes avaliadores, desde que os mesmos sejam capacitados e treinados para sua aplicação.