Estimating Brazilian monthly GDP: a state-space approach

The first contribution of this paper is to employ a superior interpolation method that enables to estimate, nowcast and forecast monthly Brazilian GDP for 1980-2012 in an integrated way; see Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity). The second contribution, along the spirit of Mariano and Murasawa (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics), is to propose and test a myriad of inter-polation models and interpolation auxiliary series all coincident with GDP from a business-cycle dating point of view. Based on these results, we finally choose the most appropriate monthly indicator for Brazilian GDP. Third, this monthly GDP estimate is compared to an economic activity indicator widely used by practitioners in Brazil - the Brazilian Economic Activity Index - (IBC-Br). We found that our monthly GDP tracks economic activity better than IBC-Br. This happens by construction, since our state-space approach imposes the restriction (discipline) that our monthly estimate must add up to the quarterly observed series in any given quarter, which may not hold regarding IBC-Br. Moreover, our method has the advantage to be easily implemented: it only requires conditioning on two observed series for estimation, while estimating IBC-Br requires the availability of hundreds of monthly series. The third contribution is to illustrate, in a nowcasting and forecasting exercise, the advantages of our integrated approach. Finally, we compare the chronology of recessions of our monthly estimate with those done elsewhere.

Mercury contamination in fanned fish setup on former garimpo mining areas in the Northern Mato Grosso State, Amazonian region, Brazil

The garimpo gold mining activity has released about 2.500 tons of mercury in the Brazilian Amazonian environment in the 1980-1995 period. The northern region of Mato Grosso State, an important gold mining and trading area during the Arnazonian gold rush is now at a turning point regarding its economic future. Nowadays, the activities related to gold mining have only a low relevance on its economy. Thus, the local communities are looking for economic alternatives for the development of the region. Cooperative fish farming is one of such alternatives. However, some projects are directly implemented on areas degraded by the former garimpo activity and the mercury left behind still poses risks, especially by its potential accumulation in fish. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the levels of mercury contamination in two fish farming areas, Paranaita and Alta Floresta, with and without records of past gold-washing activity, respectively. Data such as mercury concentration in fish of different trophic level, size, and weight as well as the water physical and chemical parameters were measured and considered. These preliminary data have shown no significant difference between these two fish fanning areas, relatively to mercury levels in fish. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil texture spatial variability of different parent material in pereira barreto, São Paulo state

The variation of soil textural characteristics is a function of the relief and parent materials. The objective of this work was to study soil texture spatial variability from different parent material in Pereira Barreto, SP. An area of 530.67 hectares was mapped through the use of Global Positioning System receivers and obtaining of Digital Elevation Models. A set of 201 soil samples was collected from every seven hectares, at three depths: 0 - 0.25 m; 0.25 - 0.50 m; and 0.80 - 1.00 m. The amounts of sand, silt and clay were obtained by the pipette method and analyzed by both descriptive statistics and geostatistics. Soil textures varied as a function of parent materials and topography.

Faunistic analysis of Carabidae and Staphylinidae (Coleoptera) in five agroecosystems in northeastern São Paulo state, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Detection of antibodies against bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) in dairy cattle with different prevalences of bovine herpesvirus type 1 (BoHV-1) in São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation and evaluation of dynamic properties as indicators of changes on soil structure in sugarcane fields of São Paulo State - Brazil

The indiscriminate management and use of soils without moisture control has changed the structure of it due to the increment of the traffic by agricultural machines through the years, causing in consequence, a soil compaction and yield reduction in the areas of intensive traffic. The purpose of this work was to estimate and to evaluate the performance of preconsolidation pressure of the soil and shear stress as indicators of changes on soil structure in fields cropped with sugarcane, as well as the impact of management processes in an Eutrorthox soil structure located in São Paulo State. The experimental field was located in Piracicaba's rural area (São Paulo State, Brazil) and has been cropped with sugarcane, in the second harvest cycle. The soil was classified by Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) [Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA), 1999. Centro Nacional de Pesquisa de Solos. Sistema Brasileiro de Classificao de Solos, Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA), Brasilia, 412 pp.] as an Eutrorthox. Undisturbed samples were collected and georeferenced in a grid of 60 m x 60 m from two depths: 0-0.10 m (superficial layer - SL) and in the layer of greatest mechanical resistance (LGMR), previously identified by cone index (CI). The investigated variables were pressure preconsolidation (sigma(p)), apparent cohesion (c) and internal friction angle (phi). The conclusions from the results were that the SLSC was predicted satisfactorily from up as a function of soil moisture; thus, decisions about machinery size and loading (contact pressures) can be taken. Apparent cohesion (c), internal friction angle (phi) and the Coulomb equation were significantly altered by traffic intensity. The sigma(p), c and phi maps were shown to be important tools to localize and visualize soil compaction and mechanical resistance zones. They constitute a valuable resource to evaluate the traffic impact in areas cropped with sugarcane in State of São Paulo, Brazil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil water retention and s index after crop rotation and chiseling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The nitrogen sufficiency index underlying estimates of nitrogen fertilization requirements of common bean

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from alow-endemic setting in northwestern state of Paraná in Southern Brazil

The purpose of this study was to provide information about the genetic diversity and prevalent genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a low-endemic setting in northwestern state of Paraná in Southern Brazil. We employed spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) techniques to genotype M. tuberculosisisolates from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The 93 isolates analyzed by spoligotyping were divided into 36 different patterns, 30 of which were described in the SITVIT database. Latin American and Mediterranean, Haarlem and T families were responsible for 26.9%, 17.2% and 11.8% of TB cases, respectively. From the 84 isolates analyzed by MIRU-VNTR, 58 shared a unique pattern and the remaining 26 belonged to nine clusters. The MIRU loci 40, 23, 10 and 16 were the most discriminatory. A combination of MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping resulted in 85.7% discriminatory power (Hunter-Gaston index = 0.995). Thus, combining spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR typing proved to be most useful for epidemiological study in this low-endemic setting in Southern Brazil. The current study demonstrated that there is significant diversity in circulating strains in the city of Maringá and the surrounding regions, with no single genotype of M. tuberculosispredominating.

Different nutritional-state indicators of HIV-positive individuals undergoing antiretroviral therapy

This study aimed at learning about the nutritional profile of HIV-positive individuals undergoing antiretroviral therapy and at comparing the performance of nutritional-state indicators. A transversal study was performed on 94 patients attending the Tropical Diseases Outpatient Hospital of Botucatu Medical School (FMB)-UNESP. The body mass index (BMI) and the classification by Papini-Berto (PB) were used to evaluate nutritional state, aiming at detecting malnutrition and obesity. The waist-to-hips ratio (W/HR) and waist circumference (WC) were adopted for identification of abdominal obesity and lipodystrophy. According to BMI, most of the individuals were eutrophic, followed by 30.9% overweight and 6.4% malnourished. By using the PB classification, the frequency of malnourished increased (22.3%). The analysis of the PB classification in relation to BMI indicated that the former presented high sensitivity and good specificity for malnutrition diagnosis, namely 100% and 83%, respectively. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was 7.44% according to WC, and a higher prevalence (38.3%) was observed when taking W/HR into account. There was significant positive association between nutritional diagnosis according to PB and T CD4(+) lymphocyte. The results support the use of PB classification for malnutrition detection as well as that of BMI and W/HR for overweight and fat redistribution.

Metabolic syndrome in overweight children from the city of Botucatu - São Paulo State - Brazil: agreement among six diagnostic criteria

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Canine rabies epidemiology in Araçatuba and neighborhood, Northwestern São Paulo State - Brazil

São apresentadas algumas características epidemiológicas da raiva canina na região de Araçatuba, no período de 1993 a 1997. Dentre 1.984 cães submetidos ao diagnóstico de raiva, 351 foram positivos sendo que 89% dos casos (312/351) ocorreram na zona urbana e destes, 85% (266/312) eram de animais com proprietário. As informações sobre sexo estavam presentes em 83% das fichas e destas 61% eram de machos. A média de idade dos cães positivos foi de 34 meses. A agressividade foi um dos sintomas mais comumente observado (77%), seguido por incoordenação motora e/ou paralisia (42%) e 48% dos cães positivos haviam agredido pessoas ou outros animais. Das 182 fichas epidemiológicas que possuíam dados de vacinação, 51% (92/182) dos cães não eram vacinados. Aponta-se como possíveis razões para o aparecimento da epidemia no município de Araçatuba a baixa cobertura vacinal demonstrada pelo índice de cães não vacinados que adquiriram a doença aliado à elevada relação cão/homem (1:3,5) revelada em estudo anterior.

Aquatic insects as the main food resource of fish the community in a Neotropical reservoir

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ecological aspects of hermit crabs (Crustacea, Anomura, Paguroidea) off the northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil

The occurrence of species of hermit crabs and their ecological distribution in soft bottoms off Ubatuba, São Paulo, Brazil were analyzed. To better understand the distribution of the species in relation to environmental factors, the similarity and species-diversity indexes were calculated. Paguroideans were sampled monthly from January through December 2000. The trawls were made with two otter-trawl nets at 13 different sites, at depths of 2-40 m. Water temperature, salinity, sediment texture, and organic matter content were measured. Gastropod shells occupied by hermit crabs were also assessed. A total of 1,238 specimens was collected, belonging to the families Diogenidae and Paguridae, comprising seven genera and thirteen species. The most abundant hermit crab species were Dardanus insignis (761 specimens) and Loxopagurus loxochelis (351 specimens). Phimochirus holthuisi is newly reported from the São Paulo coast. The highest diversity index was found for the shallower sites near rocky shores. The results of the grouping analysis for sites and species indicated three distinct groups for sites, and four groups for species. This suggests that the occurrence of these anomurans is associated with the environmental and biotic factors analyzed.

Brachyuran community in Ubatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil

A bruchyuran crab assemblage from eight transacts at a non-consolidated sublittoral site in Ubatuba Bay was studied on a monthly basis from September 1995 to August 1996. Data about number of individuals of 50 species found and other information such as distribution of the dominant crabs are reported. The family Majidae was represented by 13 species, followed by Xanthidae (13), Portunidae (10), Leucosiidae (5), Calaphidae (2), Dromiidae (2), Parthenopidae (2), Goneplacidae (1), Pinnotharidne (1), and Ocvpodidae (1). The brachyuran taxocoenosis was dominated by Callinectes ornatus (60.4%), Callinectes danae (18.8%), and Hepatus pudibundus (7.7%). representing together 86.9% of the total number of collected brachyurans. The Shannon-Weaver diversity index ranged from 1.10 to 2.06 between transects, and from 1.33 to 2.22 between months, depending more on equitability than on richness.