The Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-Up (CHIS.FU) Study: design, methods, and response rate

Background: The aim of this report is to describe the main characteristics of the design, including response rates, of the Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-up Study. Methods: The original cohort consisted of 2,500 subjects (1,263 women and 1,237 men) interviewed as part of the 1994 Cornella Health Interview Study. A record linkage to update the address and vital status of the cohort members was carried out using, first a deterministic method, and secondly a probabilistic one, based on each subject's first name and surnames. Subsequently, we attempted to locate the cohort members to conduct the phone follow-up interviews. A pilot study was carried out to test the overall feasibility and to modify some procedures before the field work began. Results: After record linkage, 2,468 (98.7%) subjects were successfully traced. Of these, 91 (3.6%) were deceased, 259 (10.3%) had moved to other towns, and 50 (2.0%) had neither renewed their last municipal census documents nor declared having moved. After using different strategies to track and to retain cohort members, we traced 92% of the CHIS participants. From them, 1,605 subjects answered the follow-up questionnaire. Conclusion: The computerized record linkage maximized the success of the follow-up that was carried out 7 years after the baseline interview. The pilot study was useful to increase the efficiency in tracing and interviewing the respondents.

Phacomatoses et tumeurs génétiquement déterminées: la transition enfant-adulte [Phacomatosis and genetically determined tumors: the transition from childhood to adulthood]

Les phacomatoses regroupent des maladies du développement du neurectoderme, engendrant des manifestations cutanées ou du système nerveux central. Les symptômes de ces maladies peuvent affecter les individus atteints à différents moments de leur vie. Il s'agit de maladies, héréditaires ou congénitales, qui sont transmises de façon variable. Effectivement, certaines, telles que la neurofibromatose, la sclérose tubéreuse ou la maladie de von Hippel-Lindau sont autosomiques dominantes, alors que d'autres, telles que la maladie de Sturge-Weber sont sporadiques. Des transmissions autosomiques récessives liées à X ou des formes mosaïques existent également. Une revue de la littérature, comprenant les cinq phacomatoses les plus fréquemment vues par un neurochirurgien (neurofibromatose de type I et II, sclérose tubéreuse de Bourneville, maladie de Sturge-Weber-Krabbe, maladie de von Hippel-Lindau) a été effectuée en se centrant sur le diagnostic, la variabilité de la symptomatologie selon l'âge du patient et son traitement. Les cas de patients adultes et pédiatriques vus aux consultations de neurologie et neurochirurgie de l'hôpital de Lille (France) et Lausanne (Suisse), de 1961 à nos jours, ont été revus pour illustrer les différentes pathologies rencontrées, selon l'âge des patients atteints. Le phénotype de ces maladies se modifie avec l'âge, car les gènes incriminés sont des gènes impliqués dans la différentiation tissulaire et sont activés à des âges différents suivant les tissus. Le rôle du neurochirurgien sera variable selon l'âge et le syndrome du patient. Il importe de connaître les variations du phénotype de ces maladies avec l'âge ainsi que les conséquences à long terme des traitements pour proposer au patient un suivi neurochirurgical personnalisé. Phacomatoses, or neurocutaneous disorders, are a group of congenital and hereditary diseases characterized by developmental lesions of the neuroectoderm, leading to pathologies affecting the skin and the central nervous system. There is a wide range of pathologies affecting individuals at different moments of life. The genetics is variable: while neurofibromatosis 1 and 2, tuberous sclerosis and von Hippel-Lindau disease are all inherited as autosomal dominant traits, Sturge-Weber syndrome is sporadic. Other neurocutaneous disorders can be inherited as autosomal recessive traits (i.e., ataxia-telangiectasia), X-linked (i.e., incontinentia pigmenti) or explained by mosaicism (i.e., hypomelanosis of Ito, McCune-Albright syndrome). In this review, we discuss the major types of neurocutaneous disorders most frequently encountered by the neurosurgeon and followed beyond childhood. They include neurofibromatosis types 1 and 2, tuberous sclerosis, Sturge-Weber syndrome and von Hippel-Lindau disease. In each case, a review of the literature, including diagnosis, genetics and treatment will be presented. The lifespan of the disease with the implications for neurosurgeons will be emphasized. A review of cases, including both pediatric and adult patients, seen in neurosurgical practices in the Lille, France and Lausanne, Switzerland hospitals between 1961 and 2007 is presented to illustrate the pathologies seen in different age-groups. Because the genes mutated in most phacomatoses are involved in development and are activated following a timed schedule, the phenotype of these diseases evolves with age. The implication of the neurosurgeon varies depending on the patient's age and pathology. While neurosurgeons tend to see pediatric patients affected with neurofibromatosis type 1, tuberous sclerosis and Sturge-Weber syndrome, there will be a majority of adult patients with von Hippel-Lindau disease or neurofibromatosis type 2

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Neuromotor performance of normally developing left-handed children and adolescents.

Neuromotor functioning - i.e., timed performance and quality of movements - was examined in 66 left-handed children and adolescents between 5 and 18.5 years by means of the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment. Quality of movements was assessed by the degree and the frequency of associated movements. Results were compared to normative data from 593 right-handers. The overall scores for timed motor performance were similar for left-handers and right-handers, while left-handers had more associated movements than right-handers with both sides. In agreement with previous studies in adults, we found that left-handed children were less lateralized than right-handers. They performed faster with their non-dominant side and slower with their dominant side. This finding was roughly independent of age, which may indicate that handedness does not reflect long-term effects of previous motor experience, but may be primarily attributed to genetic factors.

Reply to Budowle, Ge, Chakraborty and Gill-King: use of prior odds for missing persons identifications

Prior probabilities represent a core element of the Bayesian probabilistic approach to relatedness testing. This letter opinions on the commentary 'Use of prior odds for missing persons identifications' by Budowle et al. (2011), published recently in this journal. Contrary to Budowle et al. (2011), we argue that the concept of prior probabilities (i) is not endowed with the notion of objectivity, (ii) is not a case for computation and (iii) does not require new guidelines edited by the forensic DNA community - as long as probability is properly considered as an expression of personal belief. Please see related article: http://www.investigativegenetics.com/content/3/1/3

Recognition judgments and the performance of the recognition heuristic depend on the size of the reference class

In a series of three experiments, participants made inferences about which one of a pair of two objects scored higher on a criterion. The first experiment was designed to contrast the prediction of Probabilistic Mental Model theory (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage, & Kleinbölting, 1991) concerning sampling procedure with the hard-easy effect. The experiment failed to support the theory's prediction that a particular pair of randomly sampled item sets would differ in percentage correct; but the observation that German participants performed practically as well on comparisons between U.S. cities (many of which they did not even recognize) than on comparisons between German cities (about which they knew much more) ultimately led to the formulation of the recognition heuristic. Experiment 2 was a second, this time successful, attempt to unconfound item difficulty and sampling procedure. In Experiment 3, participants' knowledge and recognition of each city was elicited, and how often this could be used to make an inference was manipulated. Choices were consistent with the recognition heuristic in about 80% of the cases when it discriminated and people had no additional knowledge about the recognized city (and in about 90% when they had such knowledge). The frequency with which the heuristic could be used affected the percentage correct, mean confidence, and overconfidence as predicted. The size of the reference class, which was also manipulated, modified these effects in meaningful and theoretically important ways.

Direct cost of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump

Quantitative research that aimed to identify the mean total cost (MTC) of connecting, maintaining and disconnecting patient-controlled analgesia pump (PCA) in the management of pain. The non-probabilistic sample corresponded to the observation of 81 procedures in 17 units of the Central Institute of the Clinics Hospital, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sao Paulo. We calculated the MTC multiplying by the time spent by nurses at a unit cost of direct labor, adding the cost of materials and medications/solutions. The MTC of connecting was R$ 107.91; maintenance R$ 110.55 and disconnecting R$ 4.94. The results found will subsidize discussions about the need to transfer money from the Unified Health System to hospitals units that perform this technique of analgesic therapy and it will contribute to the cost management aimed at making efficient and effective decision-making in the allocation of available resources.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population (epublish)

BACKGROUND: Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. METHODS: We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS: The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). CONCLUSIONS: We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Surgical site infections in colon surgery: the patient, the procedure, the hospital, and the surgeon.

Objective: To determine the role of the surgeon in the occurrence of surgical site infection (SSI) following colon surgery, with respect to his or her adherence to guidelines and his or her experience.Design, Setting, and Patients: Prospective cohort study of 2393 patients who underwent colon surgery performed by 31 surgeons in 9 secondary and tertiary care public Swiss hospitals, recruited from a surveillance program for SSI between March 1, 1998, and December 31, 2008, and followed up for 1 month after their operation.Main Outcome Measures: Risk factors for SSI were identified in univariate and multivariate analyses that included the patients' and procedures' characteristics, the hospitals, and the surgeons as candidate covariates. Correlations were sought between surgeons' individual adjusted risks, their self-reported adherence to guidelines, and the delay since their board certification.Results: A total of 428 SSIs (17.9%) were identified, with hospital rates varying from 4.0% to 25.2% and individual surgeon rates varying from 3.7% to 36.1%. Features of the patients and procedures associated with SSI in univariate analyses were male sex, age, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, contamination class, operation duration, and emergency procedure. Correctly timed antibiotic prophylaxis and laparoscopic approach were protective. Multivariate analyses adjusting for these features and for the hospitals found 4 surgeons with higher risk of SSI (odds ratio [OR] = 2.37, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51-3.70; OR = 2.19, 95% CI, 1.41-3.39; OR = 2.15, 95% CI, 1.02-4.53; and OR = 1.97, 95% CI, 1.18-3.30) and 2 surgeons with lower risk of SSI (OR = 0.43, 95% CI, 0.19-0.94; and OR = 0.19, 95% CI, 0.04-0.81). No correlation was found between surgeons' individual adjusted risks and their adherence to guidelines or their experience.Conclusion: For reasons beyond adherence to guidelines or experience, the surgeon may constitute an independent risk factor for SSI after colon surgery.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Cumulative dominance and heuristic performance in binary multi-attribute choice

Several studies have reported high performance of simple decision heuristics multi-attribute decision making. In this paper, we focus on situations where attributes are binary and analyze the performance of Deterministic-Elimination-By-Aspects (DEBA) and similar decision heuristics. We consider non-increasing weights and two probabilistic models for the attribute values: one where attribute values are independent Bernoulli randomvariables; the other one where they are binary random variables with inter-attribute positive correlations. Using these models, we show that good performance of DEBA is explained by the presence of cumulative as opposed to simple dominance. We therefore introduce the concepts of cumulative dominance compliance and fully cumulative dominance compliance and show that DEBA satisfies those properties. We derive a lower bound with which cumulative dominance compliant heuristics will choose a best alternative and show that, even with many attributes, this is not small. We also derive an upper bound for the expected loss of fully cumulative compliance heuristics and show that this is moderateeven when the number of attributes is large. Both bounds are independent of the values ofthe weights.

Why England? Demand, growth and inequality during the Industrial Revolution

Why was England first? And why Europe? We present a probabilistic model that builds on big-push models by Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny (1989), combined with hierarchical preferences. The interaction of exogenous demographic factors (in particular the English low-pressure variant of the European marriage pattern)and redistributive institutions such as the old Poor Law combined to make an Industrial Revolution more likely. Essentially, industrialization is the result of having a critical mass of consumers that is rich enough to afford (potentially) mass-produced goods. Our model is then calibrated to match the main characteristics of the English economy in 1750 and the observed transition until 1850.This allows us to address explicitly one of the key features of the British IndustrialRevolution unearthed by economic historians over the last three decades the slowness of productivity and output change. In our calibration, we find that the probability of Britain industrializing is 5 times larger than France s. Contrary to the recent argument by Pomeranz, China in the 18th century had essentially no chance to industrialize at all. This difference is decomposed into a demographic and a policy component, with the former being far more important than the latter.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.