The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This paper presents a method of evaluating the expected value of a path integral for a general Markov chain on a countable state space. We illustrate the method with reference to several models, including birth-death processes and the birth, death and catastrophe process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

A formal model of real-time program compilation

Program compilation can be formally defined as a sequence of equivalence-preserving transformations, or refinements, from high-level language programs to assembler code, Recent models also incorporate timing properties, but the resulting formalisms are intimidatingly complex. Here we take advantage of a new, simple model of real-time refinement, based on predicate transformer semantics, to present a straightforward compilation formalism that incorporates real-time constraints. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they-did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.

Evaluation of various pre-treatments for the dehydration of banana and selection of suitable drying models

The thin-layer drying behaviour of bananas in a beat pump dehumidifier dryer was examined. Four pre-treatments (blanching, chilling, freezing and combined blanching and freezing) were applied to the bananas, which were dried at 50 degreesC with an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1) and with the relative humidity of the inlet air of 10-35%. Three drying models, the simple model, the two-term exponential model and the Page model were examined. All models were evaluated using three statistical measures, correlation coefficient, root means square error, and mean absolute percent error. Moisture diffusivity was calculated based on the diffusion equation for an infinite cylindrical shape using the slope method. The rate of drying was higher for the pre-treatments involving freezing. The sample which was blanched only did not show any improvement in drying rate. In fact, a longer drying time resulted due to water absorption during blanching. There was no change in the rate for the chilled sample compared with the control. While all models closely fitted the drying data, the simple model showed greatest deviation from the experimental results. The two-term exponential model was found to be the best model for describing the drying curves of bananas because its parameters represent better the physical characteristics of the drying process. Moisture diffusivities of bananas were in the range 4.3-13.2 x 10(-10) m(2)s(-1). (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

THE ROLE OF EARNINGS PERSISTENCE IN VALUATION ACCURACY AND THE TIME HORIZON

ABSTRACT Based on the assumption that earnings persistence has implications for both financial analysis and compensation contracts, the aim of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings persistence assuming that (i) more persistent earnings are likely to be a better input to valuation models and (ii) more persistent earnings are likely to serve as a proxy for long-term market and managerial orientation. The analysis is based on Brazilian listed firms from 1995 to 2013, and while we document strong support for the relevance of earnings persistence in financial analysis and valuation, we fail to document a significant relationship between earnings persistence and long-term value orientation. These results are sensitive to different specifications, and additional results suggest that firms' idiosyncratic risk (total risk) is relevant to explain the focus on short-term outcomes (short-termism) across firms. The main contribution of this paper is to offer empirical evidence for the relevance of accounting numbers in both valuation and contractual theories in an emergent market.

LMP triggered real time demand response events

Recent changes in power systems mainly due to the substantial increase of distributed generation and to the operation in competitive environments has created new challenges to operation and planning. In this context, Virtual Power Players (VPP) can aggregate a diversity of players, namely generators and consumers, and a diversity of energy resources, including electricity generation based on several technologies, storage and demand response. Demand response market implementation has been done in recent years. Several implementation models have been considered. An important characteristic of a demand response program is the trigger criterion. A program for which the event trigger depends on the Locational Marginal Price (LMP) used by the New England Independent System operator (ISO-NE) inspired the present paper. This paper proposes a methodology to support VPP demand response programs management. The proposed method has been computationally implemented and its application is illustrated using a 32 bus network with intensive use of distributed generation. Results concerning the evaluation of the impact of using demand response events are also presented.

Factorial validity of the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI-HSS) among Spanish professionals

OBJECTIVE: To assess the factorial validity and internal consistency of the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI-HSS). METHODS: In a sample consisting of 705 Spanish professionals from diverse occupational sectors (health, education, police and so one), seven plausible factorial models hypothesized were compared using LISREL 8. RESULTS: The four-factor oblique solution and the three-factor oblique solution showed the best and similar fit. Deletion of Item 12 and Item 16, taking into consideration the suggestions in the manual, improved the goodness of fit for both models. The four-factor oblique model suggests that, in addition to Emotional Exhaustion (EE) and Depersonalization (DP), Personal Accomplishment (PA) consists of two components labeled here Self-Competence (Items 4, 7, 17, and 21) and the Existential Component (Items 9, 12, 18, and 19). However, the alpha coefficient was relatively low for the Self-Competence component, suggesting that it is more suitable to estimate the syndrome as a threedimensional construct. The Cronbach's alpha was satisfactory for PA (alpha =.71) and EE (alpha =.85), and moderate for DP (alpha =.58). CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the MBI-HSS offers factorial validity and its scales present internal consistency to evaluate the quality of working life for Spanish professionals.

A new frontier in biodiversity inventory: a proposal for estimators of phylogenetic and functional diversity

Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Methods in Ecology and Evolution © 2014 British Ecological Society.