International evidence on the predictability of returns to securitized real estate assets: econometric models versus neural networks

The performance of various statistical models and commonly used financial indicators for forecasting securitised real estate returns are examined for five European countries: the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Italy. Within a VAR framework, it is demonstrated that the gilt-equity yield ratio is in most cases a better predictor of securitized returns than the term structure or the dividend yield. In particular, investors should consider in their real estate return models the predictability of the gilt-equity yield ratio in Belgium, the Netherlands and France, and the term structure of interest rates in France. Predictions obtained from the VAR and univariate time-series models are compared with the predictions of an artificial neural network model. It is found that, whilst no single model is universally superior across all series, accuracy measures and horizons considered, the neural network model is generally able to offer the most accurate predictions for 1-month horizons. For quarterly and half-yearly forecasts, the random walk with a drift is the most successful for the UK, Belgian and Dutch returns and the neural network for French and Italian returns. Although this study underscores market context and forecast horizon as parameters relevant to the choice of the forecast model, it strongly indicates that analysts should exploit the potential of neural networks and assess more fully their forecast performance against more traditional models.

Simulating the effects of grassland management and grass ensiling on methane emission from lactating cows

A dynamic, mechanistic model of enteric fermentation was used to investigate the effect of type and quality of grass forage, dry matter intake (DMI) and proportion of concentrates in dietary dry matter (DM) on variation in methane (CH(4)) emission from enteric fermentation in dairy cows. The model represents substrate degradation and microbial fermentation processes in rumen and hindgut and, in particular, the effects of type of substrate fermented and of pH oil the production of individual volatile fatty acids and CH, as end-products of fermentation. Effects of type and quality of fresh and ensiled grass were evaluated by distinguishing two N fertilization rates of grassland and two stages of grass maturity. Simulation results indicated a strong impact of the amount and type of grass consumed oil CH(4) emission, with a maximum difference (across all forage types and all levels of DM 1) of 49 and 77% in g CH(4)/kg fat and protein corrected milk (FCM) for diets with a proportion of concentrates in dietary DM of 0.1 and 0.4, respectively (values ranging from 10.2 to 19.5 g CH(4)/kg FCM). The lowest emission was established for early Cut, high fertilized grass silage (GS) and high fertilized grass herbage (GH). The highest emission was found for late cut, low-fertilized GS. The N fertilization rate had the largest impact, followed by stage of grass maturity at harvesting and by the distinction between GH and GS. Emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg FCM declined oil average 14% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 18 kg/day for grass forage diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.1, and on average 29% with an increase of DMI from 14 to 23 kg/day for diets with a proportion of concentrates of 0.4. Simulation results indicated that a high proportion of concentrates in dietary DM may lead to a further reduction of CH, emission per kg FCM mainly as a result of a higher DM I and milk yield, in comparison to low concentrate diets. Simulation results were evaluated against independent data obtained at three different laboratories in indirect calorimetry trials with COWS consuming GH mainly. The model predicted the average of observed values reasonably, but systematic deviations remained between individual laboratories and root mean squared prediction error was a proportion of 0.12 of the observed mean. Both observed and predicted emission expressed in g CH(4)/kg DM intake decreased upon an increase in dietary N:organic matter (OM) ratio. The model reproduced reasonably well the variation in measured CH, emission in cattle sheds oil Dutch dairy farms and indicated that oil average a fraction of 0.28 of the total emissions must have originated from manure under these circumstances.

Chercher pour or chercher après: arguing the case for contact-induced linguistic innovation in different varieties of French

This paper provides evidence for the claim made in Baetens Beardsmore (1971) that the grammatical collocation "chercher après" «to look for», which is very frequent in Brussels French, is the result of transfer from the contact language, Brussels Dutch. A detailed quantitative analysis of this construction in different varieties of French which have more or less contact with a Germanic language was made to investigate the likelihood of influence from the Germanic substrate. The differences between the meaning of "chercher" and "chercher après" are also analysed in some depth, to find out whether or not the particle is redundant. According to Trudgill (2004) redundant constructions are more often found in contact situations involving long-term, stable contact and child bilingualism. The particle "après" was found to add a particular shade of meaning to "chercher", and is thus not redundant. Therefore no evidence could be obtained from the current data for Trudgill’s (2004) claim.

Evidence for insertional codemixing: mixed compounds and French nominal groups in Brussels Dutch

In this paper we analyse mixed compounds, such as legume+winkel ‘vegetable shop, greengrocery’ and winter+paletot ‘winter coat’ which contain a French and a Dutch element, and French nominal groups, such as carte d’identité ‘identity card’, and journal parlé ‘radio news’, which bilingual speakers from Brussels frequently insert into Brussels Dutch utterances. Using Muysken’s (2000) typology of bilingual speech, we claim that the mixed compounds and the nominal groups display the characteristics of insertional code-mixing. In addition, some evidence for the existence of a continuum between borrowing and code-switching can be obtained from these examples. As the multimorphemic units that are inserted into Dutch are neither single words, nor full constituents, their status in the lexicon raises interesting issues for researchers interested in the interface between syntax and the lexicon (see also Backus 2003). We try to argue that nominal groups such as carte d’identité and journal parlé are probably best seen as lexical templates or constructional idioms (Booij, 2002b). The insertion of French constructional idioms in Brussels Dutch represents an innovation in the lexical patterns that are available to speakers of this language, which is highly relevant for theories of language change.

The time-course of morphological processing in a second language

We report findings from psycholinguistic experiments investigating the detailed timing of processing morphologically complex words by proficient adult second (L2) language learners of English in comparison to adult native (L1) speakers of English. The first study employed the masked priming technique to investigate -ed forms with a group of advanced Arabic-speaking learners of English. The results replicate previously found L1/L2 differences in morphological priming, even though in the present experiment an extra temporal delay was offered after the presentation of the prime words. The second study examined the timing of constraints against inflected forms inside derived words in English using the eye-movement monitoring technique and an additional acceptability judgment task with highly advanced Dutch L2 learners of English in comparison to adult L1 English controls. Whilst offline the L2 learners performed native-like, the eye-movement data showed that their online processing was not affected by the morphological constraint against regular plurals inside derived words in the same way as in native speakers. Taken together, these findings indicate that L2 learners are not just slower than native speakers in processing morphologically complex words, but that the L2 comprehension system employs real-time grammatical analysis (in this case, morphological information) less than the L1 system.

Comparative Analysis of ESBL-Positive Escherichia coli isolates from Animals and Humans from the UK, the Netherlands and Germany

The putative virulence and antimicrobial resistance gene contents of extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive E. coli (n=629) isolated between 2005 and 2009 from humans, animals and animal food products in Germany, The Netherlands and the UK were compared using a microarray approach to test the suitability of this approach with regard to determining their similarities. A selection of isolates (n=313) were also analysed by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Isolates harbouring blaCTX-M-group-1 dominated (66%, n=418) and originated from both animals and cases of human infections in all three countries; 23% (n=144) of all isolates contained both blaCTX-M-group-1 and blaOXA-1-like genes, predominantly from humans (n=127) and UK cattle (n=15). The antimicrobial resistance and virulence gene profiles of this collection of isolates were highly diverse. A substantial number of human isolates (32%, n=87) did not share more than 40% similarity (based on the Jaccard coefficient) with animal isolates. A further 43% of human isolates from the three countries (n=117) were at least 40% similar to each other and to five isolates from UK cattle and one each from Dutch chicken meat and a German dog; the members of this group usually harboured genes such as mph(A), mrx, aac(6’)-Ib, catB3, blaOXA-1-like and blaCTX-M-group-1. forty-four per cent of the MLST-typed isolates in this group belonged to ST131 (n=18) and 22% to ST405 (n=9), all from humans. Among animal isolates subjected to MLST (n=258), only 1.2% (n=3) were more than 70% similar to human isolates in gene profiles and shared the same MLST clonal complex with the corresponding human isolates. The results suggest that minimising human-to-human transmission is essential to control the spread of ESBL-positive E. coli in humans.

The timing and causes of the Neolithic elm decline: new evidence from the Lower Thames Valley (London, UK)

Two new multi-proxy records of environmental change are provided from Horton Kirby Paper Mill and Old Seager Distillery in the Lower Thames Valley. Each site has evidence for a decline in elm woodland, which at Horton Kirby Paper Mill is recorded earlier than any other published record from the British Isles: sometime between 7320 and 7240 cal BP. Scolytus scolytus/S. multistriatus (the vectors for Dutch elm disease) are recorded after the decline in both sequences, adding to the number of sites with such evidence in the British Isles. Evidence of paludification and human activity are also recorded at the time of the elm decline reinforcing the multi-causal hypothesis. Integration of these results with 21 palaeoenvironmental records has produced a large number of well-dated, multiproxy records of the elm decline in this part of the UK. On the basis of this dataset, a classification system for categorising the relationships between the causal factors of the elm decline is proposed and recommended for future studies.

Grammatical gender and the notion of default: insights from language acquisition

The aim of this study is to investigate the contrast in the timing of acquisition of grammatical gender attested in Dutch and Greek child learners. Greek children show precocious acquisition of neuter gender in particular, while Dutch children experience a long delay in the acquisition of neuter nouns, which extends to school age. For both Dutch and Greek, neuter has been claimed to be the default gender value on grounds of syntactic distribution in contexts where gender agreement is inert. To reconcile the contrast between the learner and the language facts in Dutch, as well as the contrast in the timing between Greek and Dutch monolingual child learners, we consider two sets of criteria to define the notion of default: one set pertains to the notion of linguistic default and the other to the notion of learner default. We suggest that, whereas Greek neuter is both the linguistic and the learner default value, Dutch neuter is the linguistic but not the learner default, leading to a learnability problem.

Production and on-line comprehension of definiteness in English and Dutch by monolingual and sequential bilingual children

The present article examines production and on-line processing of definite articles in Turkish-speaking sequential bilingual children acquiring English and Dutch as second languages (L2) in the UK and in the Netherlands, respectively. Thirty-nine 6–8-year-old L2 children and 48 monolingual (L1) age-matched children participated in two separate studies examining the production of definite articles in English and Dutch in conditions manipulating semantic context, that is, the anaphoric and the bridging contexts. Sensitivity to article omission was examined in the same groups of children using an on-line processing task involving article use in the same semantic contexts as in the production task. The results indicate that both L2 children and L1 controls are less accurate when definiteness is established by keeping track of the discourse referents (anaphoric) than when it is established via world knowledge (bridging). Moreover, despite variable production, all groups of children were sensitive to the omission of definite articles in the on-line comprehension task. This suggests that the errors of omission are not due to the lack of abstract syntactic representations, but could result from processes implicated in the spell-out of definite articles. The findings are in line with the idea that variable production in child L2 learners does not necessarily indicate lack of abstract representations (Haznedar and Schwartz, 1997).

Psychometric evaluation of the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS). English version

Eating attitudes are defined as beliefs, thoughts, feelings, behaviors and relationship with food They could influence people`s food choices and their health status Objective This study aimed to adapt from Portuguese to English the Disordered Eating Attitude Scale (DEAS) and evaluate its validity and reliability. The original scale in Portuguese was translated and adapted into English and was applied to female university students of University of Minnesota USA (n = 224). Internal consistency was determined (Cronbach`s Alpha). Convergent validity was assessed by correlations between Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and Restrain Scale (RS). Reliability was evaluated applying twice the scale to a sub-sample (n = 30). The scale was back translated into Portuguese and compared with the original version and discrepancies were not found. The internal consistency was .76 The DEAS total score was significantly associated with EAT-26 (r = 0.65) and RS (r = 0 69) scores The correlation between test-retest was r = 09 The English version of DEAS showed appropriate internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability and will be useful to assess eating attitudes in different population groups in English spoken countries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Copy number variants on the X chromosome in women with primary ovarian insufficiency

Objective: To investigate whether submicroscopic copy number variants (CNVs) on the X chromosome can be identified in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (POI), defined as spontaneous secondary amenorrhea before 40 years of age accompanied by follicle-stimulating hormone levels above 40 IU/L on at least two occasions. Design: Analysis of intensity data of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) probes generated by genomewide Illumina 370k CNV BeadChips, followed by the validation of identified loci using a custom designed ultra-high-density comparative genomic hybridization array containing 48,325 probes evenly distributed over the X chromosome. Setting: Multicenter genetic cohort study in the Netherlands. Patient(s): 108 Dutch Caucasian women with POI, 97 of whom passed quality control, who had a normal karyogram and absent fragile X premutation, and 235 healthy Dutch Caucasian women as controls. Intervention(s): None. Main Outcome Measure(s): Amount and locus of X chromosomal microdeletions or duplications. Result(s): Intensity differences between SNP probes identify microdeletions and duplications. The initial analysis identified an overrepresentation of deletions in POI patients. Moreover, CNVs in two genes on the Xq21.3 locus (i.e., PCDH11X and TGIF2LX) were statistically significantly associated with the POI phenotype. Mean size of identified CNVs was 262 kb. However, in the validation study the identified putative Xq21.3 deletions samples did not show deviations in intensities in consecutive probes. Conclusion(s): X chromosomal submicroscopic CNVs do not play a major role in Caucasian POI patients. We provide guidelines on how submicroscopic cytogenetic POI research should be conducted. (Fertil Steril (R) 2011;95:1584-8. (C) 2011 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)