An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

MHCWeb: Converting a WWW database into a knowledge-based collaborative environment

The World Wide Web (WWW) is useful for distributing scientific data. Most existing web data resources organize their information either in structured flat files or relational databases with basic retrieval capabilities. For databases with one or a few simple relations, these approaches are successful, but they can be cumbersome when there is a data model involving multiple relations between complex data. We believe that knowledge-based resources offer a solution in these cases. Knowledge bases have explicit declarations of the concepts in the domain, along with the relations between them. They are usually organized hierarchically, and provide a global data model with a controlled vocabulary, We have created the OWEB architecture for building online scientific data resources using knowledge bases. OWEB provides a shell for structuring data, providing secure and shared access, and creating computational modules for processing and displaying data. In this paper, we describe the translation of the online immunological database MHCPEP into an OWEB system called MHCWeb. This effort involved building a conceptual model for the data, creating a controlled terminology for the legal values for different types of data, and then translating the original data into the new structure. The 0 WEB environment allows for flexible access to the data by both users and computer programs.

Sperm environment affects offspring quality in broadcast spawning marine invertebrates

The provisioning of offspring can have far-reaching consequences for later life in a wide range of organisms and generally this provisioning is thought to be under maternal influence or control. In experiments with a broadcast-spawning ascidian, we found that the size of offspring was determined by egg size and the abundance of sperm present during fertilization. Larger eggs were fertilized at low sperm concentrations, whilst smaller eggs were successfully fertilized at high sperm concentrations. These differences in fertilized egg size resulted in differences in the development rate, hatching success and mean size of the subsequent larvae. Our results suggest that, in contrast to females that reproduce by other mating systems, free-spawning mothers lack some control over the provisioning of offspring. Furthermore, because males can alter the sperm environment, they can exert paternal (non-genetic) control over key offspring characteristics.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discriminating between task-relevant and task-irrelevant stimuli - The effects on autonomic orienting and secondary task reaction time

The effect that the difficulty of the discrimination between task-relevant and task-irrelevant stimuli has on the relationship between skin conductance orienting and secondary task reaction time (RT) was examined. Participants (N = 72) counted the number of longer-than-usual presentations of one shape (task-relevant) and ignored presentations of another shape (task-irrelevant). The difficulty of discriminating between the two shapes varied across three groups (low, medium, and high difficulty). Simultaneous with the primary counting task, participants performed a secondary RT task to acoustic probes presented 50, 150, and 2000 ms following shape onset. Skin conductance orienting was larger, and secondary RT at the 2000 ms probe position was slower during task-relevant shapes than during task-irrelevant shapes in the low-difficulty group. This difference declined as the discrimination difficulty was increased, such that there was no difference in the high-difficulty group. Secondary RT was slower during task-irrelevant shapes than during task-relevant shapes only in the medium-difficulty group-and only at the 150 ms probe position in the first half of the experiment. The close relationship between autonomic orienting and secondary RT at the 2000 ms probe position suggests that orienting reflects the resource allocation that results from the number of matching features between a stimulus input and a mental representation primed as significant.

Sources of variation in larval quality for free-spawning marine invertebrates: Egg size and the local sperm environment

There has been growing interest in the effects of variation in larval quality on the post-larval performance of adult marine invertebrates. Variation in egg/larval size is an obvious source of variation in larval quality but sources of variation have received little attention. For broadcast spawners, larval size may vary according to the local sperm environment but the generality of this result is unclear. Here, we show that, for a solitary ascidian, a polychaete and an echinoid, larval size is affected by the concentration of sperm present during fertilization. Larvae that are produced at high sperm concentrations are smaller than larvae that are produced from eggs exposed to low sperm concentrations. We also show that for three ascidians and an asteroid, egg size increases with maternal body size. These differences in larval size are likely to affect larval and subsequent adult performance in the field. Given that sperm concentrations in the field can fluctuate widely, it is likely that larval quality in free-spawning marine invertebrates will also vary widely.

Investigating the gap between citizens` sustainability attitudes and food purchasing behaviour: empirical evidence from Brazilian pork consumers

Consumers worldwide are increasingly concerned with sustainable production and consumption. Recently, a comprehensive study ranked 17 countries in regard to their environmentally friendly behaviour among consumers. Brazil was one of the top countries in the list. Yet, several studies highlight significant differences between consumers` intentions to consume ethically, and their actual purchase behaviour: the so-called `Attitude-Behaviour Gap`. In developing countries, few studies have been conducted on this issue. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the gap between citizens` sustainability-related attitudes and food purchasing behaviour using empirical data from Brazil. To this end, Brazilian citizens` attitudes towards pig production systems were mapped through conjoint analysis and their coexistence with relevant pork product-related purchasing behaviour of consumers was investigated through cluster analysis. The conjoint experiment was carried Out with empirical data collected from 475 respondents surveyed in the South and Center-West regions of Brazil. The results of the conjoint analysis were used for a subsequent cluster analysis in order to identify clusters of Brazilian citizens with diversified attitudes towards pig production systems, using socio-demographics, attitudes towards sustainability-related themes that are expected to influence the way they evaluate pig production systems, and consumption frequency of various pork products as clusters` background information. Three clusters were identified as `indifferent`, `environmental conscious` and `sustainability-oriented` citizens. Although attitudes towards environment and nature had indeed an influence on citizens` specific attitudes towards pig farming at the cluster level, the relationship between `citizenship` and consumption behaviour was found to be weak. This finding is similar to previous research conducted with European consumers: what people (in their role of citizens) think about pig production systems does not appear to significantly influence their pork consumption choices. Improvements in the integrated management of this chain would better meet consumers` sustainability-related expectations towards pig production systems.