891 resultados para Survival analysis
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OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.
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BACKGROUND: Various reasons exist for so-called bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) failure in patients with non-muscle-invasive urothelial bladder carcinoma (NMIBC). OBJECTIVE: To explore whether urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract (UUT) and/or prostatic urethra may be a cause for BCG failure. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of 110 patients with high-risk NMIBC repeatedly treated with intravesical BCG, diagnosed with disease recurrence, and followed for a median time of 9.1 yr. INTERVENTION: Two or more intravesical BCG induction courses without maintenance. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcome was pattern of disease recurrence (BCG failure) within the urinary tract categorised into UUT and/or urethral carcinoma (with or without intravesical recurrence), and intravesical recurrence alone. Secondary outcome was survival. Predictors of UUT and/or urethral carcinoma and the effect of pattern of disease recurrence on cancer-specific survival were assessed with multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusting for multiple clinical and tumour characteristics. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of the 110 patients, 57 (52%) had UUT and/or urethral carcinoma (with or without intravesical recurrence), and 53 (48%) had intravesical recurrence alone. In patients with UUT and/or urethral carcinoma, bladder carcinoma in situ (Tis) before the first and second BCG course was present in 42 of 57 (74%) and 47 of 57 (82%) patients, respectively. On multivariable analysis, bladder Tis before the first and/or second BCG course was the only independent predictor of UUT and/or urethral carcinoma. Of the 110 patients, 69 (63%) were alive at last follow-up visit, 18 (16%) had died due to metastatic urothelial carcinoma, and 23 (21%) had died of other causes. Pattern of disease recurrence within the urinary tract was not an independent predictor of cancer-specific survival. Main study limitations were retrospective design and limited power for survival analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In our patients with high-risk NMIBC failing after two or more courses of intravesical BCG, UUT and/or urethral carcinoma was detected in >50% of the cases during follow-up. The vast majority of these patients had bladder Tis before the first and/or second BCG course. In patients experiencing the so-called BCG failure, a diagnostic work-up of UUT and prostatic urethra should always be performed to exclude urothelial carcinoma before additional intravesical therapy or even a radical cystectomy is considered.
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BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer (CRC) infiltration by adaptive immune system cells correlates with favorable prognosis. The role of the innate immune system is still debated. Here we addressed the prognostic impact of CRC infiltration by neutrophil granulocytes (NG). METHODS A TMA including healthy mucosa and clinically annotated CRC specimens (n = 1491) was stained with MPO and CD15 specific antibodies. MPO+ and CD15+ positive immune cells were counted by three independent observers. Phenotypic profiles of CRC infiltrating MPO+ and CD15+ cells were validated by flow cytometry on cell suspensions derived from enzymatically digested surgical specimens. Survival analysis was performed by splitting randomized data in training and validation subsets. RESULTS MPO+ and CD15+ cell infiltration were significantly correlated (p<0.0001; r = 0.76). However, only high density of MPO+ cell infiltration was associated with significantly improved survival in training (P = 0.038) and validation (P = 0.002) sets. In multivariate analysis including T and N stage, vascular invasion, tumor border configuration and microsatellite instability status, MPO+ cell infiltration proved an independent prognostic marker overall (P = 0.004; HR = 0.65; CI:±0.15) and in both training (P = 0.048) and validation (P = 0.036) sets. Flow-cytometry analysis of CRC cell suspensions derived from clinical specimens showed that while MPO+ cells were largely CD15+/CD66b+, sizeable percentages of CD15+ and CD66b+ cells were MPO-. CONCLUSIONS High density MPO+ cell infiltration is a novel independent favorable prognostic factor in CRC.
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PRINCIPALS The liver plays an important role in glucose metabolism, in terms of glucolysis and gluconeogenesis. Several studies have shown that hyperglycemia in patients with liver cirrhosis is associated with progression of the liver disease and increased mortality. However, no study has ever targeted the influence of hypoglycemia. The aim of this study was to assess the association of glucose disturbances with outcome in patients presenting to the emergency department with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis. METHODS Our retrospective data analysis comprised adult (≥16 years) patients admitted to our emergency department between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2012, with the primary diagnosis of decompensated liver cirrhosis. RESULTS A total of 312 patients were eligible for study inclusion. Two hundred thirty-one (74.0%) patients were male; 81 (26.0%) were female. The median age was 57 years (range, 51-65 years). Overall, 89 (28.5%) of our patients had acute glucose disturbances; 49 (15.7%) of our patients were hypoglycemic and 40 (12.8%) were hyperglycemic. Patients with hypoglycemia were significantly more often admitted to the intensive care unit than hyperglycemic patients (20.4% vs 10.8%, P < .015) or than normoglycemic patients (20.4% vs 10.3%, P < .011), and they significantly more often died in the hospital (28.6% hypoglycemic vs 7.5% hyperglycemic, P < .024; 28.6% hypoglycemic vs 10.3% normoglycemic P < .049). Survival analysis showed a significantly lower estimated survival for hypoglycemic patients (36 days) than for normoglycemic patients (54 days) or hyperglycemic patients (45 days; hypoglycemic vs hyperglycemic, P < .019; hypoglycemic vs normoglycemic, P < .007; hyperglycemic vs normoglycemic, P < .477). CONCLUSION Hypoglycemia is associated with increased mortality in patients with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis. It is not yet clear whether hypoglycemia is jointly responsible for the increased short-term mortality of patients with acute decompensated liver cirrhosis or is only a consequence of the severity of the disease or the complications.
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Individuals with Lynch syndrome are predisposed to cancer due to an inherited DNA mismatch repair gene mutation. However, there is significant variability observed in disease expression likely due to the influence of other environmental, lifestyle, or genetic factors. Polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes may modify cancer risk by influencing the metabolism and clearance of potential carcinogens from the body. In this retrospective analysis, we examined key candidate gene polymorphisms in CYP1A1, EPHX1, GSTT1, GSTM1, and GSTP1 as modifiers of age at onset of colorectal cancer among 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome. We found that subjects heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V (c.1384A>G) developed colorectal cancer 4 years earlier than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype (median ages, 39 and 43 years, respectively; log-rank test P = 0.018). Furthermore, being heterozygous for the CYP1A1 polymorphisms, I462V and Msp1 (g.6235T>C), was associated with an increased risk for developing colorectal cancer [adjusted hazard ratio for AG relative to AA, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-2.74; P = 0.008; hazard ratio for TC relative to TT, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.22; P = 0.02]. Because homozygous variants for both CYP1A1 polymorphisms were rare, risk estimates were imprecise. None of the other gene polymorphisms examined were associated with an earlier onset age for colorectal cancer. Our results suggest that the I462V and Msp1 polymorphisms in CYP1A1 may be an additional susceptibility factor for disease expression in Lynch syndrome because they modify the age of colorectal cancer onset by up to 4 years.
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Enterococcus faecium is a multidrug-resistant opportunist causing difficult-to-treat nosocomial infections, including endocarditis, but there are no reports experimentally demonstrating E. faecium virulence determinants. Our previous studies showed that some clinical E. faecium isolates produce a cell wall-anchored collagen adhesin, Acm, and that an isogenic acm deletion mutant of the endocarditis-derived strain TX0082 lost collagen adherence. In this study, we show with a rat endocarditis model that TX0082 Deltaacm::cat is highly attenuated versus wild-type TX0082, both in established (72 h) vegetations (P < 0.0001) and for valve colonization 1 and 3 hours after infection (P or=50-fold reduction relative to an Acm producer) were found in three of these five nonadherent isolates, including the sequenced strain TX0016, by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR, indicating that acm transcription is downregulated in vitro in these isolates. However, examination of TX0016 cells obtained directly from infected rat vegetations by flow cytometry showed that Acm was present on 40% of cells grown during infection. Finally, we demonstrated a significant reduction in E. faecium collagen adherence by affinity-purified anti-Acm antibodies from E. faecium endocarditis patient sera, suggesting that Acm may be a potential immunotarget for strategies to control this emerging pathogen.
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BACKGROUND: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) remains a significant cause of death in newborns. With advances in neonatal critical care and ventilation strategies, survival in the term infant now exceeds 80% in some centers. Although prematurity is a significant risk factor for morbidity and mortality in most neonatal diseases, its associated risk with infants with CDH has been described poorly. We sought to determine the impact of prematurity on survival using data from the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Registry (CDHR). METHODS: Prospectively collected data from live-born infants with CDH were analyzed from the CDHR from January 1995 to July 2009. Preterm infants were defined as <37 weeks estimated gestational age at birth. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were>performed. RESULTS: During the study period, 5,069 infants with CDH were entered in the registry. Of the 5,022 infants with gestational age data, there were 3,895 term infants (77.6%) and 1,127 preterm infants (22.4%). Overall survival was 68.7%. A higher percentage of term infants were treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (33% term vs 25.6% preterm). Preterm infants had a greater percentage of chromosomal abnormalities (4% term vs 8.1% preterm) and major cardiac anomalies (6.1% term vs 11.8% preterm). Also, a significantly higher percentage of term infants had repair of the hernia (86.3% term vs 69.4% preterm). Survival for infants that underwent repair was high in both groups (84.6% term vs 77.2% preterm). Survival decreased with decreasing gestational age (73.1% term vs 53.5% preterm). The odds ratio (OR) for death among preterm infants adjusted for patch repair, ECMO, chromosomal abnormalities, and major cardiac anomalies was OR 1.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-2.11). CONCLUSION: Although outcomes for preterm infants are clearly worse than in the term infant, more than 50% of preterm infants still survived. Preterm infants with CDH remain a high-risk group. Although ECMO may be of limited value in the extremely premature infant with CDH, most preterm infants that live to undergo repair will survive. Prematurity should not be an independent factor in the treatment strategies of infants with CDH.
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BACKGROUND: Alcohol dependence is extremely common in patients with bipolar disorder and is associated with unfavorable outcomes including treatment nonadherence, violence, increased hospitalization, and decreased quality of life. While naltrexone is a standard treatment for alcohol dependence, no controlled trials have examined its use in patients with co-morbid bipolar disorder and alcohol dependence. In this pilot study, the efficacy of naltrexone in reducing alcohol use and on mood symptoms was assessed in bipolar disorder and alcohol dependence. METHODS: Fifty adult outpatients with bipolar I or II disorders and current alcohol dependence with active alcohol use were randomized to 12 weeks of naltrexone (50 mg/d) add-on therapy or placebo. Both groups received manual-driven cognitive behavioral therapy designed for patients with bipolar disorder and substance-use disorders. Drinking days and heavy drinking days, alcohol craving, liver enzymes, and manic and depressed mood symptoms were assessed. RESULTS: The 2 groups were similar in baseline and demographic characteristics. Naltrexone showed trends (p < 0.10) toward a greater decrease in drinking days (binary outcome), alcohol craving, and some liver enzyme levels than placebo. Side effects were similar in the 2 groups. Response to naltrexone was significantly related to medication adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the potential value and acceptable tolerability of naltrexone for alcohol dependence in bipolar disorder patients. A larger trial is needed to establish efficacy.
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BACKGROUND: Pediatric truncal vascular injuries occur infrequently and have a reported mortality rate of 30% to 50%. This report examines the demographics, mechanisms of injury, associated trauma, and outcome of patients presenting for the past 10 years at a single institution with truncal vascular injuries. METHODS: A retrospective review (1997-2006) of a pediatric trauma registry at a single institution was undertaken. RESULTS: Seventy-five truncal vascular injuries occurred in 57 patients (age, 12 +/- 3 years); the injury mechanisms were penetrating in 37%. Concomitant injuries occurred with 76%, 62%, and 43% of abdominal, thoracic, and neck vascular injuries, respectively. Nonvascular complications occurred more frequently in patients with abdominal vascular injuries who were hemodynamically unstable on presentation. All patients with thoracic vascular injuries presenting with hemodynamic instability died. In patients with neck vascular injuries, 1 of 2 patients who were hemodynamically unstable died, compared to 1 of 12 patients who died in those who presented hemodynamically stable. Overall survival was 75%. CONCLUSIONS: Survival and complications of pediatric truncal vascular injury are related to hemodynamic status at the time of presentation. Associated injuries are higher with trauma involving the abdomen.
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BACKGROUND: Decisions regarding whether to administer intensive care to extremely premature infants are often based on gestational age alone. However, other factors also affect the prognosis for these patients. METHODS: We prospectively studied a cohort of 4446 infants born at 22 to 25 weeks' gestation (determined on the basis of the best obstetrical estimate) in the Neonatal Research Network of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development to relate risk factors assessable at or before birth to the likelihood of survival, survival without profound neurodevelopmental impairment, and survival without neurodevelopmental impairment at a corrected age of 18 to 22 months. RESULTS: Among study infants, 3702 (83%) received intensive care in the form of mechanical ventilation. Among the 4192 study infants (94%) for whom outcomes were determined at 18 to 22 months, 49% died, 61% died or had profound impairment, and 73% died or had impairment. In multivariable analyses of infants who received intensive care, exposure to antenatal corticosteroids, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per each 100-g increment) were each associated with reductions in the risk of death and the risk of death or profound or any neurodevelopmental impairment; these reductions were similar to those associated with a 1-week increase in gestational age. At the same estimated likelihood of a favorable outcome, girls were less likely than boys to receive intensive care. The outcomes for infants who underwent ventilation were better predicted with the use of the above factors than with use of gestational age alone. CONCLUSIONS: The likelihood of a favorable outcome with intensive care can be better estimated by consideration of four factors in addition to gestational age: sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, whether single or multiple birth, and birth weight. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00063063 [ClinicalTrials.gov] and NCT00009633 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).
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This dissertation explores phase I dose-finding designs in cancer trials from three perspectives: the alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules, a design based on a time-to-dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) model, and a design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model. We list alternative Bayesian dose-escalation rules and perform a simulation study for the intra-rule and inter-rule comparisons based on two statistical models to identify the most appropriate rule under certain scenarios. We provide evidence that all the Bayesian rules outperform the traditional ``3+3'' design in the allocation of patients and selection of the maximum tolerated dose. The design based on a time-to-DLT model uses patients' DLT information over multiple treatment cycles in estimating the probability of DLT at the end of treatment cycle 1. Dose-escalation decisions are made whenever a cycle-1 DLT occurs, or two months after the previous check point. Compared to the design based on a logistic regression model, the new design shows more safety benefits for trials in which more late-onset toxicities are expected. As a trade-off, the new design requires more patients on average. The design based on a discrete-time multi-state (DTMS) model has three important attributes: (1) Toxicities are categorized over a distribution of severity levels, (2) Early toxicity may inform dose escalation, and (3) No suspension is required between accrual cohorts. The proposed model accounts for the difference in the importance of the toxicity severity levels and for transitions between toxicity levels. We compare the operating characteristics of the proposed design with those from a similar design based on a fully-evaluated model that directly models the maximum observed toxicity level within the patients' entire assessment window. We describe settings in which, under comparable power, the proposed design shortens the trial. The proposed design offers more benefit compared to the alternative design as patient accrual becomes slower.
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There is growing support for the theory that an interaction between the immune and reproductive/endocrine systems underlies the pathogenesis of autoimmune rheumatic diseases. Most of the recent evidence derives from studies of sex hormones and pregnancy in women with systemic lupus. Other than an ameliorative effect of pregnancy, little is known about reproductive factors in relation to rheumatoid arthritis. To elucidate the relationship, a population-based retrospective study was undertaken. Included were 378 female residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis between 1950 and 1982 (cases) and 325 arthritis-free, married female controls matched to the 324 married cases on birth-year, age at first marriage, and duration of Olmsted County residency. Information of reproductive factors was extracted from the medical records system maintained by the Mayo Clinic.^ Cases had lower fertility rates compared with the female population of Minnesota (rate ratio = 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI)= 0.80-0.92). Fertility was significantly reduced even prior to the onset of rheumatoid factor positive arthritis. Restricting the comparison to married Olmsted County residents did not alter the results. Further adjustments for time not at risk of conception using survival analysis and proportional hazards modeling only intensified the fertility reduction in the married cases compared with controls. Nulligravidity was more common among cases than controls (odds ratio = 3.16, CI = 1.61-6.20). Independent of fertility, pregnancy had a protective effect against rheumatoid arthritis (odds ratio = 0.31, CI = 0.11-0.89), which was dramatically reversed in the 12 months postpartum (odds ratio = 4.67, CI = 1.50-14.47). Cases were younger at menopause than controls (p $<$ 0.01).^ Small but statistically insignificant associations were observed between rheumatoid arthritis and the following factors: increased frequency of complaints to a physician of infertility; increased frequency of spontaneous abortion, premature birth, and congenital malformations following arthritis onset; and increased prevalence of menopause at arthritis onset. Cases did not differ from controls on age at menarche, duration of pregnancy, or birth weight.^ The findings provide further support for the involvement of the reproductive/endocrine systems in the pathogenesis of autoimmune rheumatic disease. The search for biological mechanisms should be intensified. ^
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In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU-for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.
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BACKGROUND The Perceval (Sorin Group, Milan, Italy) is a self-anchoring sutureless aortic valve prosthesis. We report the short- to midterm results of combined aortic valve replacement (AVR) with concomitant procedures in elderly patients undergoing operation as part of 3 consecutive prospective multicenter European studies. METHODS From April 2007 to February 2013, 243 patients (mean age, 79.7 ± 5.1 years; female patients, 61%; median EuroSCORE, 9%) underwent AVR with concomitant procedures. The concomitant procedures were coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (182 cases), septal myectomy (21 cases), CABG + other procedures (18 cases), and 22 other procedures. Primary and secondary end points included implant feasibility and safety (for mortality and morbidity) and efficacy (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class improvement and hemodynamic results) of the prosthesis at the different follow-up periods. Data were expressed as mean ± standard deviation. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for survival analysis. RESULTS Mean aortic cross-clamp and extracorporeal circulation (ECC) times were 50.7 ± 22.8 minutes and 78.9 ± 32.3 minutes, respectively. Thirty-day mortality was 2.1%. Mean postoperative gradient and effective orifice area were 10.1 ± 4.7 mm Hg and 1.5 ± 0.4 cm(2) and 8.9 ± 5.6 mm Hg and 1.6 ± 0.4 cm(2), respectively, at 1 year. There were early explantations, 4 of which resulted from paravalvular leaks. One additional valve explantation resulted from aortic root bleeding, probably caused by excessively extensive decalcification. In the late period, there was 1 mild paravalvular leak and no intravalvular insufficiency. No migration, dislodgement, or degeneration of the valve occurred during follow-up. Median follow-up was 444 days. CONCLUSIONS These trials confirm the safety and efficacy of the Perceval sutureless aortic valve, especially in elderly patients requiring AVR + concomitant procedures. In this patient group, sutureless valves may be advantageous compared to transcatheter valve implantations as concomitant procedures other than percutaneous coronary artery angioplasty are not always possible in the latter.
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INTRODUCTION As the importance of systematic review (SR) conclusions relies upon the scientific rigor of methods and the currency of evidence, we aimed to investigate the currency of orthodontic SRs using as proxy the time from the initial search to publication. Additionally, SR information regarding reporting guidelines, registration, and literature searches were recorded when available. MATERIALS AND METHODS A systematic PubMed search was carried out using the Clinical Queries page to identify orthodontic SRs cited between 1 January 2008 and 7 November 2013. Data related to reporting guidelines, review registration, dates of review processing, literature search, and abstract reporting were retrieved and classified by journal type. Survival analysis was used to assess the time to reach predefined manuscript stages for orthodontic and non-orthodontic journals. RESULTS One hundred twenty seven of the originally identified 585 SRs were considered eligible. The median interval from search until publication was 13.2 months (interquartile range: IQR = 9.7 months) irrespective of the journal type. There was evidence (P = 0.05) that SRs published by non-orthodontic journals appeared in PubMed faster than in orthodontic journals (non-orthodontic: median = 6.5 months; IQR = 5.7 months; orthodontic: median = 10.2 months; IQR = 5.6 months) from submission to publication and from acceptance to publication (non-orthodontic: median = 1.5 months; IQR = 2.4 months; orthodontic: median = 6.0 months; IQR = 6.2 months; P < 0.001). More than half of these SRs did not cite adherence to any reporting guidelines, whereas all but five studies were not prospectively registered. Search of unpublished research was undertaken in approximately 21 per cent and 29 per cent of the SRs published in non-orthodontic and orthodontic periodicals, respectively. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that SR users should be aware that median time for orthodontic SRs from search to publication is 13.2 months. SRs published in non-orthodontic journals are likely to be more current in terms of submission until time to publication and acceptance until time to publication compared with those published in orthodontic journals.