A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Plasticity of Opioid Receptors in the Female Periaqueductal Gray: Multiparity-Induced Increase in the Activity of Genes Encoding for Mu and Kappa Receptors and a Post-Translational Decrease in Delta Receptor Expression

The periaqueductal gray (PAG) has been reported as a potential site for opioid regulation of behavioral selection. Opioid-mediated behavioral and physiological responses differ between nulliparous and multiparous females. This study addresses the effects of multiple reproductive experiences on mu-, kappa- and delta-opioid receptor (Oprm1, Oprk1, and Oprd1 respectively) gene activity and mu, kappa and delta protein expression (MOR, KOR and DOR respectively) in the PAG of the female rats. This was done by evaluating the opioid gene expression using real-time (RT-PCR) and quantification of each protein receptor by Western blot analysis. The RT-PCR results show that multiple reproductive experiences increase Oprm1 and Oprk1 gene expression. Western blot analysis revealed increased MOR and KOR while DOR protein was decreased in multiparous animals. Taken together, these data suggest that multiple reproductive experiences influence both gene activity and opioid receptor expression in the PAG. Post-translational mechanisms seem particularly relevant for DOR expression. Thus, opioid transmission in the PAG might be modulated by different mechanisms of multiparity-induced plasticity according to the opioid receptor type.

Protection levels of vaccinated pigeons (Columba livia) against a highly pathogenic newcastle disease virus strain

The purposes of this study were to model a vaccination regimen for Newcastle disease virus (NDV) in pigeons, and to evaluate the susceptibility and behavior of vaccinated birds against a highly pathogenic NDV Brazilian strain. Antibody response was assessed by means of hemagglutination inhibition test (HI), and viral genome excretion by means of RT-PCR. Vaccinal strains (La Sota and Ulster) induced high antibody titers without any adverse effects, both in inoculated and in sentinel birds. A viral strain pathogenic for chickens did not produce clinical signs of the disease in experimentally infected pigeons. Only 4 out of 10 vaccinated pigeons shed NDV genome, and just for two days. Results confirmed the high infectivity of the vaccinal strains used, as all nonvaccinated pigeons showed antibody titers as high as those of vaccinated birds.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.

Network structures of Bis-GMA/TEGDMA resins differ in DC, shrinkage-strain, hardness and optical properties as a function of reducing agent

Objectives. To evaluate the influence of different tertiary amines on degree of conversion (DC), shrinkage-strain, shrinkage-strain rate, Knoop microhardness, and color and transmittance stabilities of experimental resins containing BisGMA/TEGDMA (3: 1 wt), 0.25wt% camphorquinone, 1wt% amine (DMAEMA, CEMA, DMPT, DEPT or DABE). Different light-curing protocols were also evaluated. Methods. DC was evaluated with FTIR-ATR and shrinkage-strain with the bonded-disk method. Shrinkage-strain-rate data were obtained from numerical differentiation of shrinkage-strain data with respect to time. Color stability and transmittance were evaluated after different periods of artificial aging, according to ISO 7491: 2000. Results were evaluated with ANOVA, Tukey, and Dunnett`s T3 tests (alpha = 0.05). Results. Studied properties were influenced by amines. DC and shrinkage-strain were maximum at the sequence: CQ < DEPT < DMPT <= CEMA approximate to DABE < DMAEMA. Both DC and shrinkage were also influenced by the curing protocol, with positive correlations between DC and shrinkage-strain and DC and shrinkage-strain rate. Materials generally decreased in L* and increased in b*. The strong exception was the resin containing DMAEMA that did not show dark and yellow shifts. Color varied in the sequence: DMAEMA < DEPT < DMPT < CEMA < DABE. Transmittance varied in the sequence: DEPT approximate to DABE < DABE approximate to DMPT approximate to CEMA < DMPT approximate to CEMA approximate to DMAEMA, being more evident at the wavelength of 400 nm. No correlations between DC and optical properties were observed. Significance. The resin containing DMAEMA showed higher DC, shrinkage-strain, shrinkage-strain rate, and microhardness, in addition to better optical properties. (C) 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The strain-driven pyrochlore to "defect fluorite" phase transition in rare earth sesquioxide stabilized cubic zirconias

The relationship between the ordering characteristic of the pyrochlore structure type and that characteristic of the defect fluorite structure type (immediately on either side of two phase regions separating the two structure types) in a range of rare eath sesquioxide stabilized cubic zirconias is investigated via electron diffraction and imaging. Systematic structural change as a function of composition and relative size of the constituent metal ions is highlighted and a multi-q to single-q = 1/2 [111]* model proposed for the observed pyrochlore to defect fluorite phase transition. Strain introduced into the close-packed {111} metal ion planes of the defect fluorite average structure by the local cation and oxygen vacancy distribution is pointed to as the likely origin of the observed behavior. (C) 2001 Academic Press

Differential inclusions and robust control theory

Uncontrolled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax, where A is a non-empty compact set of matrices, and controlled systems (x) over dot is an element of Ax + Bu are considered. Higher-order systems 0 is an element of Px - Du, where and are sets of differential polynomials, are also studied. It is shown that, under natural conditions commonly occurring in robust control theory, with some mild additional restrictions, asymptotic stability of differential inclusions is guaranteed. The main results are variants of small-gain theorems and the principal technique used is the Krasnosel'skii-Pokrovskii principle of absence of bounded solutions.

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.