Parameterschätzung in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen am Beispiel des Cox-Ingersoll-Ross-Modells

In dieser Arbeit geht es um die Schätzung von Parametern in zeitdiskreten ergodischen Markov-Prozessen im allgemeinen und im CIR-Modell im besonderen. Beim CIR-Modell handelt es sich um eine stochastische Differentialgleichung, die von Cox, Ingersoll und Ross (1985) zur Beschreibung der Dynamik von Zinsraten vorgeschlagen wurde. Problemstellung ist die Schätzung der Parameter des Drift- und des Diffusionskoeffizienten aufgrund von äquidistanten diskreten Beobachtungen des CIR-Prozesses. Nach einer kurzen Einführung in das CIR-Modell verwenden wir die insbesondere von Bibby und Sørensen untersuchte Methode der Martingal-Schätzfunktionen und -Schätzgleichungen, um das Problem der Parameterschätzung in ergodischen Markov-Prozessen zunächst ganz allgemein zu untersuchen. Im Anschluss an Untersuchungen von Sørensen (1999) werden hinreichende Bedingungen (im Sinne von Regularitätsvoraussetzungen an die Schätzfunktion) für die Existenz, starke Konsistenz und asymptotische Normalität von Lösungen einer Martingal-Schätzgleichung angegeben. Angewandt auf den Spezialfall der Likelihood-Schätzung stellen diese Bedingungen zugleich lokal-asymptotische Normalität des Modells sicher. Ferner wird ein einfaches Kriterium für Godambe-Heyde-Optimalität von Schätzfunktionen angegeben und skizziert, wie dies in wichtigen Spezialfällen zur expliziten Konstruktion optimaler Schätzfunktionen verwendet werden kann. Die allgemeinen Resultate werden anschließend auf das diskretisierte CIR-Modell angewendet. Wir analysieren einige von Overbeck und Rydén (1997) vorgeschlagene Schätzer für den Drift- und den Diffusionskoeffizienten, welche als Lösungen quadratischer Martingal-Schätzfunktionen definiert sind, und berechnen das optimale Element in dieser Klasse. Abschließend verallgemeinern wir Ergebnisse von Overbeck und Rydén (1997), indem wir die Existenz einer stark konsistenten und asymptotisch normalen Lösung der Likelihood-Gleichung zeigen und lokal-asymptotische Normalität für das CIR-Modell ohne Einschränkungen an den Parameterraum beweisen.

Generalized Differential Quadrature Finite Element Method applied to Advanced Structural Mechanics

Over the years the Differential Quadrature (DQ) method has distinguished because of its high accuracy, straightforward implementation and general ap- plication to a variety of problems. There has been an increase in this topic by several researchers who experienced significant development in the last years. DQ is essentially a generalization of the popular Gaussian Quadrature (GQ) used for numerical integration functions. GQ approximates a finite in- tegral as a weighted sum of integrand values at selected points in a problem domain whereas DQ approximate the derivatives of a smooth function at a point as a weighted sum of function values at selected nodes. A direct appli- cation of this elegant methodology is to solve ordinary and partial differential equations. Furthermore in recent years the DQ formulation has been gener- alized in the weighting coefficients computations to let the approach to be more flexible and accurate. As a result it has been indicated as Generalized Differential Quadrature (GDQ) method. However the applicability of GDQ in its original form is still limited. It has been proven to fail for problems with strong material discontinuities as well as problems involving singularities and irregularities. On the other hand the very well-known Finite Element (FE) method could overcome these issues because it subdivides the computational domain into a certain number of elements in which the solution is calculated. Recently, some researchers have been studying a numerical technique which could use the advantages of the GDQ method and the advantages of FE method. This methodology has got different names among each research group, it will be indicated here as Generalized Differential Quadrature Finite Element Method (GDQFEM).

Convergence results for stochastic particle systems with social interaction

We consider stochastic individual-based models for social behaviour of groups of animals. In these models the trajectory of each animal is given by a stochastic differential equation with interaction. The social interaction is contained in the drift term of the SDE. We consider a global aggregation force and a short-range repulsion force. The repulsion range and strength gets rescaled with the number of animals N. We show that for N tending to infinity stochastic fluctuations disappear and a smoothed version of the empirical process converges uniformly towards the solution of a nonlinear, nonlocal partial differential equation of advection-reaction-diffusion type. The rescaling of the repulsion in the individual-based model implies that the corresponding term in the limit equation is local while the aggregation term is non-local. Moreover, we discuss the effect of a predator on the system and derive an analogous convergence result. The predator acts as an repulsive force. Different laws of motion for the predator are considered.

Picard-Fuchs equations of dimensionally regulated Feynman integrals

Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit besch¨aftige ich mich mit Differentialgleichungen von Feynman– Integralen. Ein Feynman–Integral h¨angt von einem Dimensionsparameter D ab und kann f¨ur ganzzahlige Dimension als projektives Integral dargestellt werden. Dies ist die sogenannte Feynman–Parameter Darstellung. In Abh¨angigkeit der Dimension kann ein solches Integral divergieren. Als Funktion in D erh¨alt man eine meromorphe Funktion auf ganz C. Ein divergentes Integral kann also durch eine Laurent–Reihe ersetzt werden und dessen Koeffizienten r¨ucken in das Zentrum des Interesses. Diese Vorgehensweise wird als dimensionale Regularisierung bezeichnet. Alle Terme einer solchen Laurent–Reihe eines Feynman–Integrals sind Perioden im Sinne von Kontsevich und Zagier. Ich beschreibe eine neue Methode zur Berechnung von Differentialgleichungen von Feynman– Integralen. ¨ Ublicherweise verwendet man hierzu die sogenannten ”integration by parts” (IBP)– Identit¨aten. Die neue Methode verwendet die Theorie der Picard–Fuchs–Differentialgleichungen. Im Falle projektiver oder quasi–projektiver Variet¨aten basiert die Berechnung einer solchen Differentialgleichung auf der sogenannten Griffiths–Dwork–Reduktion. Zun¨achst beschreibe ich die Methode f¨ur feste, ganzzahlige Dimension. Nach geeigneter Verschiebung der Dimension erh¨alt man direkt eine Periode und somit eine Picard–Fuchs–Differentialgleichung. Diese ist inhomogen, da das Integrationsgebiet einen Rand besitzt und daher nur einen relativen Zykel darstellt. Mit Hilfe von dimensionalen Rekurrenzrelationen, die auf Tarasov zur¨uckgehen, kann in einem zweiten Schritt die L¨osung in der urspr¨unglichen Dimension bestimmt werden. Ich beschreibe außerdem eine Methode, die auf der Griffiths–Dwork–Reduktion basiert, um die Differentialgleichung direkt f¨ur beliebige Dimension zu berechnen. Diese Methode ist allgemein g¨ultig und erspart Dimensionswechsel. Ein Erfolg der Methode h¨angt von der M¨oglichkeit ab, große Systeme von linearen Gleichungen zu l¨osen. Ich gebe Beispiele von Integralen von Graphen mit zwei und drei Schleifen. Tarasov gibt eine Basis von Integralen an, die Graphen mit zwei Schleifen und zwei externen Kanten bestimmen. Ich bestimme Differentialgleichungen der Integrale dieser Basis. Als wichtigstes Beispiel berechne ich die Differentialgleichung des sogenannten Sunrise–Graphen mit zwei Schleifen im allgemeinen Fall beliebiger Massen. Diese ist f¨ur spezielle Werte von D eine inhomogene Picard–Fuchs–Gleichung einer Familie elliptischer Kurven. Der Sunrise–Graph ist besonders interessant, weil eine analytische L¨osung erst mit dieser Methode gefunden werden konnte, und weil dies der einfachste Graph ist, dessen Master–Integrale nicht durch Polylogarithmen gegeben sind. Ich gebe außerdem ein Beispiel eines Graphen mit drei Schleifen. Hier taucht die Picard–Fuchs–Gleichung einer Familie von K3–Fl¨achen auf.

A reduced model clarifies the role of feedback loops and time delays in the Drosophila circadian oscillator.

Although several detailed models of molecular processes essential for circadian oscillations have been developed, their complexity makes intuitive understanding of the oscillation mechanism difficult. The goal of the present study was to reduce a previously developed, detailed model to a minimal representation of the transcriptional regulation essential for circadian rhythmicity in Drosophila. The reduced model contains only two differential equations, each with time delays. A negative feedback loop is included, in which PER protein represses per transcription by binding the dCLOCK transcription factor. A positive feedback loop is also included, in which dCLOCK indirectly enhances its own formation. The model simulated circadian oscillations, light entrainment, and a phase-response curve with qualitative similarities to experiment. Time delays were found to be essential for simulation of circadian oscillations with this model. To examine the robustness of the simplified model to fluctuations in molecule numbers, a stochastic variant was constructed. Robust circadian oscillations and entrainment to light pulses were simulated with fewer than 80 molecules of each gene product present on average. Circadian oscillations persisted when the positive feedback loop was removed. Moreover, elimination of positive feedback did not decrease the robustness of oscillations to stochastic fluctuations or to variations in parameter values. Such reduced models can aid understanding of the oscillation mechanisms in Drosophila and in other organisms in which feedback regulation of transcription may play an important role.

Continued Fraction Solutions to Hermite's, Legendre's and Laguerre's Differential Equation

The continued fraction method for solving differential equations is illustrated using three famous differential equations used in quantum chemistry.

Comparison of particle dispersion obtained with simple stochastic models and les in pipe flow

A hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian approach is employed to simulate heavy particle dispersion in turbulent pipe flow. The mean flow is provided by the Eulerian simulations developed by mean of JetCode, whereas the fluid fluctuations seen by particles are prescribed by a stochastic differential equation based on normalized Langevin. The statistics of particle velocity are compared to LES data which contain detailed statistics of velocity for particles with diameter equal to 20.4 µm. The model is in good agreement with the LES data for axial mean velocity whereas rms of axial and radial velocities should be adjusted.

Numerical simulation of group combustion of pulverized coal

A mathematical model for the group combustion of pulverized coal particles was developed in a previous work. It includes the Lagrangian description of the dehumidification, devolatilization and char gasification reactions of the coal particles in the homogenized gaseous environment resulting from the three fuels, CO, H2 and volatiles, supplied by the gasification of the particles and their simultaneous group combustion by the gas phase oxidation reactions, which are considered to be very fast. This model is complemented here with an analysis of the particle dynamics, determined principally by the effects of aerodynamic drag and gravity, and its dispersion based on a stochastic model. It is also extended to include two other simpler models for the gasification of the particles: the first one for particles small enough to extinguish the surrounding diffusion flames, and a second one for particles with small ash content when the porous shell of ashes remaining after gasification of the char, non structurally stable, is disrupted. As an example of the applicability of the models, they are used in the numerical simulation of an experiment of a non-swirling pulverized coal jet with a nearly stagnant air at ambient temperature, with an initial region of interaction with a small annular methane flame. Computational algorithms for solving the different stages undergone by a coal particle during its combustion are proposed. For the partial differential equations modeling the gas phase, a second order finite element method combined with a semi-Lagrangian characteristics method are used. The results obtained with the three versions of the model are compared among them and show how the first of the simpler models fits better the experimental results.

Introduction to Coding Theory for Flow Equations of Complex Systems Models

The modeling of complex dynamic systems depends on the solution of a differential equations system. Some problems appear because we do not know the mathematical expressions of the said equations. Enough numerical data of the system variables are known. The authors, think that it is very important to establish a code between the different languages to let them codify and decodify information. Coding permits us to reduce the study of some objects to others. Mathematical expressions are used to model certain variables of the system are complex, so it is convenient to define an alphabet code determining the correspondence between these equations and words in the alphabet. In this paper the authors begin with the introduction to the coding and decoding of complex structural systems modeling.

Error estimation and iterative improvement for the numerical solution of operator equations /

Bibliography: p. 85-87.

A multirate ordinary differential equation integrator /

Originally presented as the author's thesis, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

On Newton-iterative methods for the solution of systems of nonlinear equations /

Based on the author's thesis, Yale.

An economical algorithm for the solution of elliptic difference equations independent of user-supplied parameters,

Extra t.p., with thesis statement, inserted.

Evaluation of an integration technique for the solution of nonlinear equations.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.