Bayesian parameter estimation for latent Markov random fields and social networks

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian computation (Pritchard et al., 1999). Applications to estimating the parameters of Ising models and exponential random graphs from noisy data are presented. Each algorithm used in the paper targets an approximation to the true posterior due to the use of MCMC to simulate from the latent graphical model, in lieu of being able to do this exactly in general. The supplementary appendix also describes the nature of the resulting approximation.

A semiotic approach of multi-agent simulation for policy evaluation

Nowadays the changing environment becomes the main challenge for most of organizations, since they have to evaluate proper policies to adapt to the environment. In this paper, we propose a multi-agent simulation method to evaluate policies based on complex adaptive system theory. Furthermore, we propose a semiotic EDA (Epistemic, Deontic, Axiological) agent model to simulate agent's behavior in the system by incorporating the social norms reflecting the policy. A case study is also provided to validate our approach. Our research present better adaptability and validity than the qualitative analysis and experiment approach and the semiotic agent model provides high creditability to simulate agents' behavior.

Impact evaluation of a Kenyan Eco Business: a pilot framework.

Promoting social and environmental entrepreneurship is suggested by many, including international institutions, national development agencies and non-governmental organizations, as critical in tackling longstanding complex global sustainable development problems. However while interest in this kind of alternative entrepreneurship grows, with a proliferation of claims made about its potential to catalyze societal transformation, research in this field remains nascent and fragmented, particularly in relation to Africa. There are few examples of work systematically examining the impacts of social and environmental enterprises on sustainable development and poverty alleviation, especially research based on rigorous empirical fieldwork. This paper begins addressing these limitations by proposing a framework for mapping the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of social and environmental enterprises in Africa. This framework is then piloted with reference to a Kenyan ecobusiness.

State capitalism and social responsibility in China's banking industry

China’s financial system has experienced a series of major reforms in recent years. Efforts have been made towards introducing the shareholding system in state-owned commercial banks, restructuring of securities firms, re-organising equity of joint venture insurance companies, further improving the corporate governance structure, managing financial risks and ultimately establishing a system to protect investors (Xinhua, 2010). Financial product innovation, with the further opening up of financial markets and the development of the insurance and bond market, has increased liquidity as well as reduced financial risks. The U.S. subprime crisis indicated the benefit of financial innovations for the economy, but without proper control, they may lead to unexpected consequences. Kirkpatrick (2009) argues that failures and weaknesses in corporate governance arrangements and insufficient accounting standards and regulatory requirements attributed to the financial crisis. Similar to the financial crises of the last decade, the global financial crisis which sparked in 2008, surfaced a variety of significant corporate governance failures: the dysfunction of market mechanisms, the lack of transparency and accountability, misaligned compensation arrangements and the late response of government, all which encouraged management short-termism, poor risk management, as well as some fraudulent schemes. The unique characteristics of the Chinese banking system are an interesting point for studying post-crisis corporate governance reform. Considering that China modelled its governance system on the Anglo-American system, this paper examines the impact of the financial crisis on corporate governance reform in developed economies, and particularly, China’s reform of its financial sector. The paper further analyses the Chinese government’s role in bank supervision and risk management. In this regard, the paper contributes to the corporate governance literature within the Chinese context by providing insights into the contributing factors to the corporate governance failure that led to the global financial crisis. It also provides policy recommendations for China’s policy makers to seriously consider. The results suggest a need for the re-examination of corporate governance adequacy and the institutionalisation of business ethics. The paper’s next section provides a review of China’s financial system with reference to the financial crisis, followed by a critical evaluation of a capitalistic system and a review of Anglo-American and Continental European models. It then analyses the need for a new corporate governance model in China by considering the bank failures in developed economies and the potential risks and inefficiencies in a current State controlled system. The paper closes by reflecting the need for Chinese policy makers to continually develop, adapt and rewrite corporate governance practices capable of meeting the new challenge, and to pay attention to business ethics, an issue which goes beyond regulation.

Using developmental evaluation methods with communities of practice

Purpose This research explored the use of developmental evaluation methods with community of practice programmes experiencing change or transition to better understand how to target support resources. Design / methodology / approach The practical use of a number of developmental evaluation methods was explored in three organisations over a nine month period using an action research design. The research was a collaborative process involving all the company participants and the academic (the author) with the intention of developing the practices of the participants as well as contributing to scholarship. Findings The developmental evaluation activities achieved the objectives of the knowledge managers concerned: they developed a better understanding of the contribution and performance of their communities of practice, allowing support resources to be better targeted. Three methods (fundamental evaluative thinking, actual-ideal comparative method and focus on strengths and assets) were found to be useful. Cross-case analysis led to the proposition that developmental evaluation methods act as a structural mechanism that develops the discourse of the organisation in ways that enhance the climate for learning, potentially helping develop a learning organization. Practical implications Developmental evaluation methods add to the options available to evaluate community of practice programmes. These supplement the commonly used activity indicators and impact story methods. 2 Originality / value Developmental evaluation methods are often used in social change initiatives, informing public policy and funding decisions. The contribution here is to extend their use to organisational community of practice programmes.

Closed-loop feedback computation model of dynamical reputation based on the local trust evaluation in business-to-consumer e-commerce

Trust and reputation are important factors that influence the success of both traditional transactions in physical social networks and modern e-commerce in virtual Internet environments. It is difficult to define the concept of trust and quantify it because trust has both subjective and objective characteristics at the same time. A well-reported issue with reputation management system in business-to-consumer (BtoC) e-commerce is the “all good reputation” problem. In order to deal with the confusion, a new computational model of reputation is proposed in this paper. The ratings of each customer are set as basic trust score events. In addition, the time series of massive ratings are aggregated to formulate the sellers’ local temporal trust scores by Beta distribution. A logical model of trust and reputation is established based on the analysis of the dynamical relationship between trust and reputation. As for single goods with repeat transactions, an iterative mathematical model of trust and reputation is established with a closed-loop feedback mechanism. Numerical experiments on repeated transactions recorded over a period of 24 months are performed. The experimental results show that the proposed method plays guiding roles for both theoretical research into trust and reputation and the practical design of reputation systems in BtoC e-commerce.

Travel Report from the first field trip within the SIDA supported project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility : Including visits to Ihushi Development Center, Tweyambe Secondary School and Mavuno Project in Tanzania. Conducted in April 2011

This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.

PANA V : Evaluation of a Literacy Project

PANA V Evaluation of a Literacy ProjectSUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONSThis evaluation set out to explore the impact of the literacy work carried out through PANA V. It focussed on clarifying effects such as empowerment and poverty reduction in relation to the civil society. Two specific objectives were to evaluate the methodological approach and the didactic materials and to evaluate the sustainability of the project.Although the focus of the evaluation has been PANA V, the project has been evaluated in its context, as one in a series of five projects located in Rwanda ten years after the war and genocide. The conclusion will consider future plans in this field.The evaluator has striven to create a holistic picture of the effects of the project, although the given time for the evaluation was short. Only three weeks were spent in the field study and only ten days in the actual field. Although there were some organisational and logistic problems, as is common when carrying out a study like this in a poor country, many literacy sites were visited and quite many participators were interviewed. The overall impression from the study is overwhelmingly positive. So many people commit themselves in this task of teaching Rwandans reading, writing and numeracy. Despite harsh conditions learners strive to learn and group leaders devote themselves to the task. Many leaders on different levels try their very best to manage their difficult and demanding task. The main objective was to explore the impact of the project on poverty reduction, particularly on empowerment and strategies for everyday life. Women were to be regarded particularly. From the results it is clear that the project has a strong, positive impact both on poverty reduction and empowerment of marginalised groups. Among those who have benefited from the alphabetisation are mainly women. Unfortunately, when it comes to leaders in PANA, who may also be said to have benefited from the project, only a small minority is women. This is something that is recommended that it be reconsidered inside the organisation. As a majority of the targeted learners are women, and as the economic and social situation of women in Rwanda is generally weak, this is a question that I recommend the Pentesostal church and ADEPR to look particularly into. With many women being single breadwinners of their households, it is important that also women get access to positions that may bring benefits of different kind.It is also clear that the project has positive effects for the civil society. In the present situation in Rwanda, during the process of reconciliation and rapid progress, basic education for the poor majority is a democratic issue. In a country with a plethora of internet-cafés in the capital and a small minority that use cars and mobile-telephones to communicate nation-wide, it is of outmost importance that the majority acquires basic education, of which literacy is a central part. To strengthen the civil society in Rwanda literacy is important. One central issue is then that Rwanda develops toward becoming a country where literacy is used for the benefit of the citizens and it is a democratic issue that all citizens get an opportunity to participate. Crucial for this is that strong efforts are put into primary schools nation-wide. Literacy projects for adults, like PANA, may only complement these efforts, but they constitute important and necessary complements. Other relevant ways to promote literacy are campaigns in Radio and TV and through cultural events such as festivals, music and theatre. News papers, magazines and books are natural parts of such campaigns as well as adult education. As stated under the results not much can be said about the didactics in this evaluation. On the whole the methodology and the materials fill their function well and receive a high reputation. As people learn to read and write under very simple conditions, obviously the approach is appropriate. A few suggestions may be given from the study:•Focus groups leaders’ attention on clearness, that they show very clearly what is to be read. Good structuring is probably of great importance for many learners.•Make clear what is tested in the tests and consider the possibility to use a holistic test that would be more congruent with the methodology. The possibility to use only one grade, pass, would enable a more practical test, such as reading a short, relevant text, writing something relevant and solving practical mathematic problems. Avoid tests that demand school knowledge.•Avoid using methaphors such as “fight against illiteracy” and connections between illiteracy/literacy and darkness/light. It is not true that illiteracy causes bad things and that literacy only brings good. •Be prepared that it may be more difficult in the future to achieve the goals as it may be the case that the early learners where the ones who achieved easily. The goal of “literacy in six month” in PANA will probably hold only for some learners but also those who do not manage in six months need literacy skills.A third objective was to secure sustainability. As for sustainability of the project in itself, and of the literacy process, the main conclusion is that there is a good potential. The commitment and devotedness among many involved in PANA proves good. One weakness is individual leaders in ADEPR who do not see this as an important task for the Pentecostal church in Rwanda. Other weaknesses are the unwillingness to mention explicitly the wish, for example among group leaders, to get some kind of incentive and the fear of loosing believers by cooperation with other organisations. A higher degree of transparency in this issue would probably solve some irritations and tensions.As for the sustainability of the literacy skills much may be done to improve. The acquired skills seem to be comparably relevant. The level achieved, and the level tested, may be defined as basic literacy skills, consisting of basic reading, writing and numeracy skills. However, these skills are very restricted and there is a high risk that the skills will decline, which means that there is a high risk that people will forget how to read and write because of lack of exercising. From these conclusions a few suggestions for future development will be given.

What do we know about preventing drug-related harm through social developmental intervention with children and young people

This chapter examines the evidence for the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reduce drug-related harm by improving conditions for healthy develeopment in the earliest years through adolescence. Of the interventions beginning prior to birth, there is efficacy evidence that family home visitation is a feasible strategy for implementation with disadvataged families and can reduce risk factors for early developmental deficits and thereby improve childhood development outcomes. There is efficacy evidence for strategies such as parent education and school preparation through the pre-school age period. Some of the strongest evidence for efficacy in reducing developmental pathways to drug-related harm comes from interventions delivered through the early school years to improve educational environments. Of the interventions targeting the high school age period, school drug education has been the most commonly evaluated. The evidence suggests that short term reduction in both drug use and progression to frequent drug use may be achievable through this strategy, but the prospects for longer-term and population-level behaviour change is still unclear. In overview, a range of prevention strategies have been developed and evaluated. Most of the exisiting evidence is restricted to efficacy studies and there are future challenges to progress evaluation through to studies of effectiveness. In general, prevention programmes appear more successful where they maintain intervention activities over a number of years and incorporate more than one strategy. Much of the existing research has been based in North America and evaluates discrete programmes. Future research should test effects in other countries, in different social contexts and seek to better understand the interrelated effects of combining interventions within the community. Developmental prevention programmes target different age periods and social settings, hence communities have the challenge of coordinating a mixture of programmes that address the local conditions that adversely influence child and youth development. There are opportunities in this work to coordinate prevention activities using funding from different jurisdictions (e.g., crime prevention, health promotion, mental health, education, substance abuse prevention).

An evaluation of self-report measures of cognitive distortions and empathy among Australian sex offenders

The modification of deviant cognitions and the enhancement of victim empathy are central components in many treatment programs for sex offenders. There appear to be three broad problems with self-report measures of these factors: variations in the psychometric evaluation of measures; the transparency of items and thus the likely influence of social desirability; and the difficulty of determining which measures are specific to particular types of sex offenders. The aim of this study was to investigate these three issues among child molesters (CMs), and men convicted of sex offences against adults (ASOs). Data were collected from 36 CMs and 31 ASOs and from two comparison groups (33 men convicted of nonsexual offences and 40 nonoffenders from the community), to assess the reliability (internal and test-retest) and validity (discriminant, construct, and face) of measures, the influence of sexual social desirability on responding and the specificity of measures to both sex offender groups. Collectively, the results raise issues related to the assessment of sex offenders that require further investigation. They also have theoretical implications about the relationship between cognitive and emotive processes among sex offenders.

Experiential learning in social science theory: an investigation of the relationship between student enjoyment and learning

This paper provides an analysis of student experiences of an approach to teaching theory that integrates the teaching of theory and data analysis. The argument that supports this approach is that theory is most effectively taught by using empirical data in order to generate and test propositions and hypotheses, thereby emphasising the dialectic relationship between theory and data through experiential learning. Bachelor of Commerce students in two second-year substantive organisational theory subjects were introduced to this method of learning at a large, multi-campus Australian university. In this paper, we present a model that posits a relationship between students' perceptions of their learning, the enjoyment of the experience and expected future outcomes. The results of our evaluation reveal that a majority of students:

•enjoyed this way of learning;
•believed that the exercise assisted their learning of substantive theory, computing applications and the nature of survey data; and
•felt that what they have learned could be applied elsewhere.

We argue that this approach presents the potential to improve the way theory is taught by integrating theory, theory testing and theory development; moving away from teaching theory and analysis in discrete subjects; and, introducing iterative experiences in substantive subjects.

A methodology of health information security evaluation

With the conversion of paper health records to electronic health records, the health care sector is increasingly relying on technology to maintain the integrity of and update patients’ data. This reliance on technology requires an acute level of protection from technological disasters and/or threats of human error or sabotage. Research has shown there are inadequacies in the installation and use of security controls for health information records and that current methods of security analysis lack the techniques to analyse the technical and social aspects of security. This paper reports on progress towards development of a health information security evaluation methodology based on Unified Modelling Language techniques, and discusses an imminent case study that will be used for validation of the methodology.

A security evaluation criteria for baseline security standards

Recent advances in technology and new software applications are steadily transforming human civilization into what is called the Information Society. This is manifested by the new terminology appearing in our daily activities. E-Business, E-Government, E-Learning, E-Contracting, and E-Voting are just a few of the ever-growing list of new terms that are shaping the Information Society. Nonetheless, as "Information" gains more prominence in our society, the task of securing it against all forms of threats becomes a vital and crucial undertaking. Addressing the various security issues confronting our new Information Society, this volume is divided into 13 parts covering the following topics: Information Security Management; Standards of Information Security; Threats and Attacks to Information; Education and Curriculum for Information Security; Social and Ethical Aspects of Information Security; Information Security Services; Multilateral Security; Applications of Information Security; Infrastructure for Information Security Advanced Topics in Security; Legislation for Information Security; Modeling and Analysis for Information Security; Tools for Information Security. Security in the Information Society: Visions and Perspectives comprises the proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Information Security (SEC2002), which was sponsored by the International Federation for Information Processing (IFIP), and jointly organized by IFIP Technical Committee 11 and the Department of Electronics and Electrical Communications of Cairo University. The conference was held in May 2002 in Cairo, Egypt. This volume is essential reading for scholars, researchers, and practitioners interested inkeeping pace with the ever-growing field of Information Security.

Health information security evaluation: continued development of an object-oriented method

With the convergence of paper to electronic, the health industry is relying more on technology to maintain and update the well-being of patients. This reliance on technology requires an acute level of protection from
unwanted technological disasters and/or human threats. Research shows insufficiencies with the implementation and use of security controls; as well as current analysis methods lacking the techniques to analyse technical and social aspects of security. The aim of this paper is to introduce an information security evaluation methodology for health information systems based on UML.

Evaluation of phenomenological findings in IS research : a study in developing web-based IS

This paper presents a phenomenological investigation of project managers’ experiences with the implementation of web-based employee service systems (ESS), a domain that has witnessed sharp growth in Australia in recent times. The rich, multidimensional account of project managers’ experiences with the implementation of ESS revealed the social obstacles and fragility of intraorganizational relationships that demanded a cautious and tactful approach. While arriving at such findings usually concludes the cyclical process of phenomenological study, Information Systems (IS) research usually demands some independent assessment of the empirical discovery, which led us to conducting a further study focusing on the evaluation of the collected and packaged project managers’ experience. This phenomenological evaluation is in the focus of this paper. By means of a small case study, this project engaged a number of professional teams to reflect upon the previously captured problem-solving experience and determine its applicability, usefulness and relevance in developing new web-based ESS products and services.