On the forecast accuracy and consistency of exchange rate expectations: The Spanish PwC Survey.

We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.

Short-term Load Forecasting Using Neural Network For Future Smart Grid Application

Short-term load forecasting of power system has been a classic problem for a long time. Not merely it has been researched extensively and intensively, but also a variety of forecasting methods has been raised. This thesis outlines some aspects and functions of smart meter. It also presents different policies and current statuses as well as future projects and objectives of SG development in several countries. Then the thesis compares main aspects about latest products of smart meter from different companies. Lastly, three types of prediction models are established in MATLAB to emulate the functions of smart grid in the short-term load forecasting, and then their results are compared and analyzed in terms of accuracy. For this thesis, more variables such as dew point temperature are used in the Neural Network model to achieve more accuracy for better short-term load forecasting results.

Organic carbon and biomarker record from the Laptev Sea continental margin

In order to understand the processes controlling organic carbon deposition (i.e., primary productivity vs. terrigenous supply) and their paleoceanographic significance, three sediment cores (PS2471, PS2474. and PS2476) from the Laptev Sea continental margin were investigated for their content and composition of organic carbon. The characterization of organic matter indudes the determination of buk parameters (hydrogen index values and C/N ratios) and the analysis of specific biomarkers (n-alaknes, fatty acids, alkenones, and pigments). Total organic carbon (TOC) values vary between 0.3 and 2%. In general, the organic matter from the Laptev Sea continental margin is dominated by terrigenous matter throughout. However. significant amounts of marine organic carbon occur. The turbidites, according to a still preliminary stratigraphy probably deposited during glacial Oxygen Isotope Stages 2 and 4, are characterized by maximum amounts of organic carbon of terrigenous origin. Marine organic carbon appears to show enhanced relative abundances in the Termination I (?) and early Holocene time intervals, as indicated by maximum amounts of short chain n-alkanes, short-chain fatty acids, and alkenones. The increased amounts of faity acids, however, may also have a freshwater origin due to increased river discharge at that time. The occurrence of alkenones is suggested to indicate an intensification of Atlantic water inflow along the Eurasian continental margin starting at that time. Oxygen Isotope Stage l accumutation rates of total organic carhon are 0.3, 0.17, and 0.02 C/cm**2/ky in cores PS2476, PS2474, and PS2471, respectively.

Short Peptide Vaccine Induces CD4+ T Helper Cells in Patients with Different Solid Cancers

Previous cancer vaccination trials often aimed to activate CD8(+) cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) responses with short (8-10mer) peptides and targeted CD4(+) helper T cells (TH) with HLA class II-binding longer peptides (12-16 mer) that were derived from tumor antigens. Accordingly, a study of immunomonitoring focused on the detection of CTL responses to the short, and TH responses to the long, peptides. The possible induction of concurrent TH responses to short peptides was widely neglected. In a recent phase I vaccination trial, 53 patients with different solid cancers were vaccinated with EMD640744, a cocktail of five survivin-derived short (9- or 10-mer) peptides in Montanide ISA 51VG. We monitored 49 patients and found strong CD8(+) T-cell responses in 63% of the patients. In addition, we unexpectedly found CD4(+) TH cell responses against at least two of the five short peptides in 61% (23/38) of the patients analyzed. The two peptides were recognized by HLA-DP4- and HLA-DR-restricted TH1 cells. Some short peptide-reactive (sp)CD4 T cells showed high functional avidity. Here, we show that a short peptide vaccine is able to activate a specific CD4(+) T-cell repertoire in many patients, facilitating a strong combined CD4(+)/CD8(+) T-cell response. Cancer Immunol Res; 4(1); 18-25. ©2015 AACR.

On increasing the effective aperture of antennas by data processing /

Includes bibliographical references (p. 58-59)

Louis Gilbert, UM football vs Ohio State, 1927

[captions reads: Gilbert Receives a Short Pass but is Tackled]

Smeeton's historical and biographical tracts.

Each tract has special t.-p.

Operations and Planning in Sustainable Power Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Assessment of relationships between precipitation and satellite derived vegetation condition in South Australia

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) has evolved as a primary tool for monitoring continental-scale vegetation changes and interpreting the impact of short to long-term climatic events on the biosphere. The objective of this research was to assess the nature of relationships between precipitation and vegetation condition, as measured by the satellite-derived NDVI within South Australia. The correlation, timing and magnitude of the NDVI response to precipitation were examined for different vegetation formations within the State (forest, scrubland, shrubland, woodland and grassland). Results from this study indicate that there are strong relationships between precipitation and NDVI both spatially and temporally within South Australia. Differences in the timing of the NDVI response to precipitation were evident among the five vegetation formations. The most significant relationship between rainfall and NDVI was within the forest formation. Negative correlations between NDVI and precipitation events indicated that vegetation green-up is a result of seasonal patterns in precipitation. Spatial patterns in the average NDVI over the study period closely resembled the boundaries of the five classified vegetation formations within South Australia. Spatial variability within the NDVI data set over the study period differed greatly between and within the vegetation formations examined depending on the location within the state. ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ENVSAEnvironments of South Australia EOS Terra-Earth Observing System EVIEnhanced Vegetation Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MVC Maximum Value Composite NDVINormalised Difference Vegetation Index NIRNear Infra-Red NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SPOT Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Van der Waals-corrected density functional theory: benchmarking for hydrogen-nanotube and nanotube-nanotube interactions

Density functional theory (DFT) is a powerful approach to electronic structure calculations in extended systems, but suffers currently from inadequate incorporation of long-range dispersion, or Van der Waals (VdW) interactions. VdW-corrected DFT is tested for interactions involving molecular hydrogen, graphite, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), and SWCNT bundles. The energy correction, based on an empirical London dispersion term with a damping function at short range, allows a reasonable physisorption energy and equilibrium distance to be obtained for H-2 on a model graphite surface. The VdW-corrected DFT calculation for an (8, 8) nanotube bundle reproduces accurately the experimental lattice constant. For H-2 inside or outside an (8, 8) SWCNT, we find the binding energies are respectively higher and lower than that on a graphite surface, correctly predicting the well known curvature effect. We conclude that the VdW correction is a very effective method for implementing DFT calculations, allowing a reliable description of both short-range chemical bonding and long-range dispersive interactions. The method will find powerful applications in areas of SWCNT research where empirical potential functions either have not been developed, or do not capture the necessary range of both dispersion and bonding interactions.

Cone topography and spectral sensitivity in two potentially trichromatic marsupials, the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) and quenda (Isoodon obesulus)

The potential for trichromacy in mammals, thought to be unique to primates, was recently discovered in two Australian marsupials. Whether the presence of three cone types, sensitive to short- (SWS), medium-(MWS) and long-(LWS) wavelengths, occurs across all marsupials remains unknown. Here, we have investigated the presence, distribution and spectral sensitivity of cone types in two further species, the quokka (Setonix brachyurus) and quenda (Isoodon obesulus). Immunohistochemistry revealed that SWS cones in the quokka are concentrated in dorso-temporal retina, while in the quenda, two peaks were identified in naso-ventral and dorso-temporal retina. In both species, MWS/LWS cone spatial distributions matched those of retinal ganglion cells. Microspectrophotometry (MSP) confirmed that MWS and LWS cones are spectrally distinct, with mean wavelengths of maximum absorbance at 502 and 538 nm in the quokka, and at 509 and 551 nm, in the quenda. Although small SWS cone outer segments precluded MSP measurements, molecular analysis identified substitutions at key sites, accounting for a spectral shift from ultraviolet in the quenda to violet in the quokka. The presence of three cone types, along with previous findings in the fat-tailed dunnart and honey possum, suggests that three spectrally distinct cone types are a feature spanning the marsupials.

Modelling oil droplet absorption spectra and spectral sensitivities of bird cone photoreceptors

Birds have four spectrally distinct types of single cones that they use for colour vision. It is often desirable to be able to model the spectral sensitivities of the different cone types, which vary considerably between species. However, although there are several mathematical models available for describing the spectral absorption of visual pigments, there is no model describing the spectral absorption of the coloured oil droplets found in three of the four single cone types. In this paper, we describe such a model and illustrate its use in estimating the spectral sensitivities of single cones. Furthermore, we show that the spectral locations of the wavelengths of maximum absorbance (lambda(max)) of the short- (SWS), medium- (MWS) and long- (LWS) wavelength-sensitive visual pigments and the cut-off wavelengths (lambda(cut)) of their respective C-, Y- and R-type oil droplets can be predicted from the lambda(max) of the ultraviolet- (UVS)/violet- ( VS) sensitive visual pigment.

Organohalogen contaminants in wildlife from the Yangtze River Delta : Development of methods and assessments of legacy and emerging persistent organic pollutants

Rapid economic development has occurred during the past few decades in China with the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) area as one of the most progressive areas. The urbanization, industrialization, agricultural and aquaculture activities result in extensive production and application of chemicals. Organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) have been widely used as i.e. pesticides, flame retardants and plasticizers. They are persistent, bioaccumulative and pose a potential threat to ecosystem and human health. However, limited research has been conducted in the YRD with respect to chemicals environmental exposure. The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the contamination level, distribution pattern and sources of OHCs in the YRD. Wildlife from different habitats are used to indicate the environmental pollution situation, and evaluate selected matrices for use in long term biomonitoring to determine the environmental stress the contamination may cause. In addition, a method is developed for dicofol analysis. Moreover, a specific effort is made to introduce statistic power analysis to assist in optimal sampling design. The thesis results show extensive contamination of OHCs in wildlife in the YRD. The occurrences of high concentrations of chlorinated paraffins (CPs) are reported in wildlife, in particular in terrestrial species, (i.e. short-tailed mamushi snake and peregrine falcon). Impurities and byproducts of pentachlorophenol products, i.e. polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDEs) and hydroxylated polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (OH-PCDEs) are identified and reported for the first time in eggs from black-crowned night heron and whiskered tern. High concentrations of octachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) are determined in these samples. The toxic equivalents (TEQs) of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are at mean levels of 300 and 520 pg TEQ g-1lw (WHO2005 TEQ) in eggs from the two bird species, respectively. This is two orders of magnitude higher than European Union (EU) regulation limit in chicken eggs. Also, a novel pattern of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) with octa- to decaCBs, contributing to as much as 20% of total PCBs therein, are reported in birds. The legacy POPs shows a common characteristic with relatively high level of organochlorine pesticides (i.e. DDT, hexacyclohexanes (HCHs) and Mirex), indicating historic applications. In contrast, rather low concentrations are shown of industrial chemicals such as PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). A refined and improved analytical method is developed to separate dicofol from its major decomposition compound, 4,4’-dichlorobenzophenone. Hence dicofol is possible to assess as such. Statistic power analysis demonstrates that sampling of sedentary species should be consistently spread over a larger area to monitor temporal trends of contaminants in a robust manner. The results presented in this thesis show high CPs and OCDD concentrations in wildlife. The levels and patterns of OHCs in YRD differ from other well studied areas of the world. This is likely due to the extensive production and use of chemicals in the YRD. The results strongly signal the need of research biomonitoring programs that meet the current situation of the YRD. Such programs will contribute to the management of chemicals and environment in YRD, with the potential to grow into the human health sector, and to expand to China as a whole.

Profitability of a sample of Portuguese bank branches and its decomposition into technical and allocative components

The efficiency literature, both using parametric and non-parametric methods, has been focusing mainly on cost efficiency analysis rather than on profit efficiency. In for-profit organisations, however, the measurement of profit efficiency and its decomposition into technical and allocative efficiency is particularly relevant. In this paper a newly developed method is used to measure profit efficiency and to identify the sources of any shortfall in profitability (technical and/or allocative inefficiency). The method is applied to a set of Portuguese bank branches first assuming long run and then a short run profit maximisation objective. In the long run most of the scope for profit improvement of bank branches is by becoming more allocatively efficient. In the short run most of profit gain can be realised through higher technical efficiency. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling and control of agitated extraction columns

Liquid-liquid extraction has long been known as a unit operation that plays an important role in industry. This process is well known for its complexity and sensitivity to operation conditions. This thesis presents an attempt to explore the dynamics and control of this process using a systematic approach and state of the art control system design techniques. The process was studied first experimentally under carefully selected. operation conditions, which resembles the ranges employed practically under stable and efficient conditions. Data were collected at steady state conditions using adequate sampling techniques for the dispersed and continuous phases as well as during the transients of the column with the aid of a computer-based online data logging system and online concentration analysis. A stagewise single stage backflow model was improved to mimic the dynamic operation of the column. The developed model accounts for the variation in hydrodynamics, mass transfer, and physical properties throughout the length of the column. End effects were treated by addition of stages at the column entrances. Two parameters were incorporated in the model namely; mass transfer weight factor to correct for the assumption of no mass transfer in the. settling zones at each stage and the backmixing coefficients to handle the axial dispersion phenomena encountered in the course of column operation. The parameters were estimated by minimizing the differences between the experimental and the model predicted concentration profiles at steady state conditions using non-linear optimisation technique. The estimated values were then correlated as functions of operating parameters and were incorporated in·the model equations. The model equations comprise a stiff differential~algebraic system. This system was solved using the GEAR ODE solver. The calculated concentration profiles were compared to those experimentally measured. A very good agreement of the two profiles was achieved within a percent relative error of ±2.S%. The developed rigorous dynamic model of the extraction column was used to derive linear time-invariant reduced-order models that relate the input variables (agitator speed, solvent feed flowrate and concentration, feed concentration and flowrate) to the output variables (raffinate concentration and extract concentration) using the asymptotic method of system identification. The reduced-order models were shown to be accurate in capturing the dynamic behaviour of the process with a maximum modelling prediction error of I %. The simplicity and accuracy of the derived reduced-order models allow for control system design and analysis of such complicated processes. The extraction column is a typical multivariable process with agitator speed and solvent feed flowrate considered as manipulative variables; raffinate concentration and extract concentration as controlled variables and the feeds concentration and feed flowrate as disturbance variables. The control system design of the extraction process was tackled as multi-loop decentralised SISO (Single Input Single Output) as well as centralised MIMO (Multi-Input Multi-Output) system using both conventional and model-based control techniques such as IMC (Internal Model Control) and MPC (Model Predictive Control). Control performance of each control scheme was. studied in terms of stability, speed of response, sensitivity to modelling errors (robustness), setpoint tracking capabilities and load rejection. For decentralised control, multiple loops were assigned to pair.each manipulated variable with each controlled variable according to the interaction analysis and other pairing criteria such as relative gain array (RGA), singular value analysis (SVD). Loops namely Rotor speed-Raffinate concentration and Solvent flowrate Extract concentration showed weak interaction. Multivariable MPC has shown more effective performance compared to other conventional techniques since it accounts for loops interaction, time delays, and input-output variables constraints.